Over the past decade,there has been increasing focus on improving the quality of healthcare delivered to patients with chronic diseases,including inflammatory bowel disease.Inflammatory bowel disease is a complex,chro...Over the past decade,there has been increasing focus on improving the quality of healthcare delivered to patients with chronic diseases,including inflammatory bowel disease.Inflammatory bowel disease is a complex,chronic condition with associated morbidity,health care costs,and reductions in quality of life.The condition is managed primarily in the outpatient setting.The delivery of high quality of care is suboptimal in several ambulatory inflammatory bowel disease domains including objective assessments of disease activity,the use of steroid-sparing agents,screening prior to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy,and monitoring thiopurine therapy.This review outlines these gaps in performance and provides potential initiatives aimed at improvement including reimbursement programs,quality improvement frameworks,collaborative efforts in quality improvement,and the use of healthcare information technology.展开更多
The statistics of the number of rapeseed seedlings are very important for breeders and planters to conduct seed quality testing,field crop management and yield estimation.Calculating the number of seedlings is ineffic...The statistics of the number of rapeseed seedlings are very important for breeders and planters to conduct seed quality testing,field crop management and yield estimation.Calculating the number of seedlings is inefficient and cumbersome in the traditional method.In this study,a method was proposed for efficient detection and calculation of rapeseed seedling number based on improved you only look once version 5(YOLOv5)to identify objects and deep-sort to perform object tracking for rapeseed seedling video.Coordinated attention(CA)mechanism was added to the trunk of the improved YOLOv5s,which made the model more effective in identifying shaded,dense and small rapeseed seedlings.Also,the use of the GSConv module replaced the standard convolution at the neck,reduced model parameters and enabled it better able to be equipped for mobile devices.The accuracy and recall rate of using improved YOLOv5s on the test set by 1.9%and 3.7%compared to 96.2%and 93.7%of YOLOv5s,respectively.The experimental results showed that the average error of monitoring the number of seedlings by unmanned aerial vehicles(UAV)video of rapeseed seedlings based on improved YOLOv5s combined with depth-sort method was 4.3%.The presented approach can realize rapid statistics of the number of rapeseed seedlings in the field based on UAV remote sensing,provide a reference for variety selection and precise management of rapeseed.展开更多
BACKGROUND Differential diagnosis,comorbidities and overlaps with other psychiatric disorders are common among adults with autism spectrum disorder(ASD),but clinical assessments often omit screening for personality di...BACKGROUND Differential diagnosis,comorbidities and overlaps with other psychiatric disorders are common among adults with autism spectrum disorder(ASD),but clinical assessments often omit screening for personality disorders(PD),which are especially common in individuals with high-functioning ASD where there is less need for support.AIM To summarize the research findings on PD in adults with ASD and without intellectual disability,focusing on comorbidity and differential diagnosis.METHODS PubMed searches were performed using the key words“Asperger’s Syndrome”,“Autism”,“Personality”,“Personality disorder”and“comorbidity”in order to identify relevant articles published in English.Grey literature was identified through searching Google Scholar.The literature reviews and reference sections of selected papers were also examined for additional potential studies.The search was restricted to studies published up to April 2020.This review is based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method.RESULTS The search found 22 studies carried out on ASD adults without intellectual disability that met the inclusion criteria:16 evaluated personality profiles or PD in ASD(comorbidity),five compared ASD and PD(differential diagnosis)and one performed both tasks.There were significant differences in the methodological Cluster A and cluster C PD are the most frequent co-occurring PD,but overlapping features should be considered.Data on differential diagnosis were only found with cluster A and cluster B PD.CONCLUSION ASD in high-functioning adults is associated with a distinct personality profile even if variability exists.Further studies are needed to explore the complex relationship between ASD and PD.展开更多
Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which is generally considered a multifactorial disorder that arises owing to a combination of genes and environmental factors. While most cases a...Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which is generally considered a multifactorial disorder that arises owing to a combination of genes and environmental factors. While most cases are idiopathic, in about 10% of the patients a genetic cause can be detected, ascribable to mutations in more than a dozen genes. PD is characterized clinically by tremor, rigidity, reduced mo- tor activity (bradykinesia), and postural instability and pathological- ly by loss of dopaminergic (DA) neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta, loss of DA innervation in the striatum, and the presence of a-synuclein positive aggregates in the form of Lewy bodies. The symptomatic treatment of PD with levodopa, which aims at replac- ing dopamine, remains the gold standard, and no neuroprotective or disease-modifying therapy is available. During treatment, the disease continues to progress, and long-term use of levodopa has import- ant limitations including motor complications termed dyskinesias. Therefore, a pharmacological therapy able to prevent or halt the neu- rodegenerative process is urgently required.展开更多
This research explains academic achievement based on the personality characteristics, the psycho-social climate of the classroom in terms of academic engagement in mathematics. The population was high schoolboys and g...This research explains academic achievement based on the personality characteristics, the psycho-social climate of the classroom in terms of academic engagement in mathematics. The population was high schoolboys and girls in Damghan city in Iran. Participants were randomly selected using a multi-stage cluster method (513 boys and girls) and they simultaneously completed three questionnaires: academic engagement, the psycho-social climate of the classroom and personality characteristics. Path analysis was used to analyze data. The results showed that the direct effects of personality characteristics and psycho-social climate of the classroom on academic achievement were not significant. The direct effects of openness, conscientiousness and psycho-social climate of classroom on academic engagement were significant. The indirect effects (with mediation of academic engagement) and overall effects of openness, conscientiousness and psycho-social climate of classroom on academic achievement were significant, also the effect of academic engagement on academic achievement was significant.展开更多
In China, the concept of corporate governance does not have a long history, and the implementation of corporate governance has been growing up with the process of China's enterprise reform especially the SOEs (sta...In China, the concept of corporate governance does not have a long history, and the implementation of corporate governance has been growing up with the process of China's enterprise reform especially the SOEs (state-owned enterprises) reform and economic growth. In the last two decades, China's enterprise reform has been the focus of economic reform and system reform, and the importance of corporate governance became clearly recognized among the join stock corporations which had undergone or are ongoing the corporatization progress.展开更多
THE people" is a frequently mentioned phrase,to the extent of being the main theme of the report delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)by General Secretary Xi Jinping."W...THE people" is a frequently mentioned phrase,to the extent of being the main theme of the report delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)by General Secretary Xi Jinping."We must put the people’s interests above all else,see that the gains of reform and development benefit all our people in a展开更多
The other Mogadishu But despite the progress, violence remains a major hurdle. Prior to the MBF. at least 14 people were killed when a hotel in the capital was attacked by aI-Shabab gunmen. Soon after the MBF. there w...The other Mogadishu But despite the progress, violence remains a major hurdle. Prior to the MBF. at least 14 people were killed when a hotel in the capital was attacked by aI-Shabab gunmen. Soon after the MBF. there were two car bomb attacks, one near the Mogadishu International Airport and the other close to the presidential palace, killing at least 12 people.展开更多
在全球零售额和当天交货量不断增长的时代,实现订单的快速交付和优质分批是影响移动机器人履行系统(Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems,RMFS)拣选效率的关键因素.为构造高质量订单分配批次、提升RMFS系统拣选效率,提出融合大邻域搜索...在全球零售额和当天交货量不断增长的时代,实现订单的快速交付和优质分批是影响移动机器人履行系统(Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems,RMFS)拣选效率的关键因素.为构造高质量订单分配批次、提升RMFS系统拣选效率,提出融合大邻域搜索的改进差分进化算法(LNS_DE),引入大邻域搜索的破坏与修复思想及一批基于随机、基于最大代价贡献和基于集中批次的移除算子以及新的插入算子组件,以最小化订单总延迟时间为目标建立订单分批优化模型,并针对不同订单规模算例进行实验仿真.仿真结果表明,所提出的订单分批优化算法较差分进化算法(DE)相比求解质量更优,性能更稳定、收敛速度更快,尤其当订单数量增大时,LNS_DE算法解的平均值优化比例不断扩大,这为提高RMFS系统拣选效率,实现订单快速响应提供有效决策指导.展开更多
Gone with the Wind,the masterpiece of the Margaret,M who has spent about ten years on writing this novel and it takes over half a year of her to verify the specific time and place of the involved historical event.Once...Gone with the Wind,the masterpiece of the Margaret,M who has spent about ten years on writing this novel and it takes over half a year of her to verify the specific time and place of the involved historical event.Once the masterpiece is published on June 30,1936,it soon broke several records in sales of American publishing;later,it won the prize of Pulitzer and Association of American publishers.While the leading lady of this novel,Scarlett,become an object of admiration among thousands of people.What attract the readerséyes deeply is her unique origin,outstanding features and noble actions.In the meantime,the charming personality of Margaret's Scarlett has conquered us.She is strong to the difficulties;she is persistent to her love;and she is witty to her family.She is the strongest among the people who has endured the hardship as her no matter she has suffered from the war,the poor and leaving her family.What makes her be responsible to the Taylor Manor is her braveness.At the end of the story,she still tells us:tomorrow is another day! We admire her positive attitude to life,and this is why the female character can be everlasting.展开更多
The maize population Csyn 4 was improved for three cycles with three recurrent selection methods MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS in northern China. A total of 40 NC Ⅱ testcrosses were made by four testers with Csyn 4 and 10 ...The maize population Csyn 4 was improved for three cycles with three recurrent selection methods MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS in northern China. A total of 40 NC Ⅱ testcrosses were made by four testers with Csyn 4 and 10 improved populations, which were evaluated in four environments in the cropping season of 2005. Analysis of variance indicated a significant progress (P〈 0.05) in yield and other chief agronomic traits in the improved populations and testcrosses, demonstrating that the three recurrent selection methods were effective for increasing grain yield of testcrosses and improvement of general combining ability in maize population. The average grain yield increase of population Csyn 4 in MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections was 266.7 kg ha^-1 (5.3%), 288.0 kg ha^-1 (5.7%), and 231.3 kg ha^-1 (4.6%) per cycle, while the grain yield of S 1 progeny of population for Csyn 4 was increased by 420.0 kg ha^-1 (10.9%), 376.0 kg ha^-1 (9.8%), and 414.7 kg ha^-1 (10.8%) per cycle in MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections, respectively. Linear responses (b) in the MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections were the same as the realized responses of the selection (G) for grain yield increase of Csyn 4 and S1 progeny of the populations. The grain yield of testcrosses increased by 3.3-5.2% on average per cycle. The value of heterosis did not display any differences amongst the different cycles of selections. The GCA for yield component traits of population Csyn 4 was improved significantly by means of three selection methods, whereas the GCA for plant height, ear height, days to silking, and days to pollen did not show significant increase in the recurrent selections. GCA for the number of tassel branches were decreased in the selections, while GCA for the number of plant leaves were increased, but the difference was not significant.展开更多
When applying Grover's algorithm to an unordered database, the probabifity of obtaining correct results usually decreases as the quantity of target increases. A four-phase improvement of Grover's algorithm is propos...When applying Grover's algorithm to an unordered database, the probabifity of obtaining correct results usually decreases as the quantity of target increases. A four-phase improvement of Grover's algorithm is proposed to fix the deficiency, and the unitary and the phase-matching condition are also proposed. With this improved scheme, when the proportion of target is over 1/3, the probability of obtaining correct results is greater than 97.82% with only one iteration using two phases. When the computational complexity is O( √M/N), the algorithm can succeed with a probability no less than 99.63%.展开更多
Our purpose of this paper is to apply the improved Kudryashov method for solving various types of nonlinear fractional partial differential equations. As an application, the time-space fractional Korteweg-de Vries-Bur...Our purpose of this paper is to apply the improved Kudryashov method for solving various types of nonlinear fractional partial differential equations. As an application, the time-space fractional Korteweg-de Vries-Burger (KdV-Burger) equation is solved using this method and we get some new travelling wave solutions. To acquire our purpose a complex transformation has been also used to reduce nonlinear fractional partial differential equations to nonlinear ordinary differential equations of integer order, in the sense of the Jumarie’s modified Riemann-Liouville derivative. Afterwards, the improved Kudryashov method is implemented and we get our required reliable solutions where the results are justified by mathematical software Maple-13.展开更多
As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates th...As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates the models’capability to simulate and predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).Three versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)are used to conduct historical simulations and re-forecast experiments(referred to as EXP1,EXP1-M,and EXP2,respectively).In simulating MJO characteristics,the newly-developed high-resolution BCC-CSM outperforms its predecessors.In terms of MJO prediction,the useful prediction skill of the MJO index is enhanced from 15 days in EXP1 to 22 days in EXP1-M,and further to 24 days in EXP2.Within the first forecast week,the better initial condition in EXP2 largely contributes to the enhancement of MJO prediction skill.However,during forecast weeks 2–3,EXP2 shows little advantage compared with EXP1-M because the increased skill at MJO initial phases 6–7 is largely offset by the degraded skill at MJO initial phases 2–3.Particularly at initial phases 2–3,EXP1-M skillfully captures the wind field and Kelvin-wave response to MJO convection,leading to the highest prediction skill of the MJO.Our results reveal that,during the participation of the CMA models in the S2S Project,both the improved model initialization and updated model physics played positive roles in improving MJO prediction.Future efforts should focus on improving the model physics to better simulate MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and further improve MJO prediction at long lead times.展开更多
文摘Over the past decade,there has been increasing focus on improving the quality of healthcare delivered to patients with chronic diseases,including inflammatory bowel disease.Inflammatory bowel disease is a complex,chronic condition with associated morbidity,health care costs,and reductions in quality of life.The condition is managed primarily in the outpatient setting.The delivery of high quality of care is suboptimal in several ambulatory inflammatory bowel disease domains including objective assessments of disease activity,the use of steroid-sparing agents,screening prior to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy,and monitoring thiopurine therapy.This review outlines these gaps in performance and provides potential initiatives aimed at improvement including reimbursement programs,quality improvement frameworks,collaborative efforts in quality improvement,and the use of healthcare information technology.
文摘The statistics of the number of rapeseed seedlings are very important for breeders and planters to conduct seed quality testing,field crop management and yield estimation.Calculating the number of seedlings is inefficient and cumbersome in the traditional method.In this study,a method was proposed for efficient detection and calculation of rapeseed seedling number based on improved you only look once version 5(YOLOv5)to identify objects and deep-sort to perform object tracking for rapeseed seedling video.Coordinated attention(CA)mechanism was added to the trunk of the improved YOLOv5s,which made the model more effective in identifying shaded,dense and small rapeseed seedlings.Also,the use of the GSConv module replaced the standard convolution at the neck,reduced model parameters and enabled it better able to be equipped for mobile devices.The accuracy and recall rate of using improved YOLOv5s on the test set by 1.9%and 3.7%compared to 96.2%and 93.7%of YOLOv5s,respectively.The experimental results showed that the average error of monitoring the number of seedlings by unmanned aerial vehicles(UAV)video of rapeseed seedlings based on improved YOLOv5s combined with depth-sort method was 4.3%.The presented approach can realize rapid statistics of the number of rapeseed seedlings in the field based on UAV remote sensing,provide a reference for variety selection and precise management of rapeseed.
文摘BACKGROUND Differential diagnosis,comorbidities and overlaps with other psychiatric disorders are common among adults with autism spectrum disorder(ASD),but clinical assessments often omit screening for personality disorders(PD),which are especially common in individuals with high-functioning ASD where there is less need for support.AIM To summarize the research findings on PD in adults with ASD and without intellectual disability,focusing on comorbidity and differential diagnosis.METHODS PubMed searches were performed using the key words“Asperger’s Syndrome”,“Autism”,“Personality”,“Personality disorder”and“comorbidity”in order to identify relevant articles published in English.Grey literature was identified through searching Google Scholar.The literature reviews and reference sections of selected papers were also examined for additional potential studies.The search was restricted to studies published up to April 2020.This review is based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method.RESULTS The search found 22 studies carried out on ASD adults without intellectual disability that met the inclusion criteria:16 evaluated personality profiles or PD in ASD(comorbidity),five compared ASD and PD(differential diagnosis)and one performed both tasks.There were significant differences in the methodological Cluster A and cluster C PD are the most frequent co-occurring PD,but overlapping features should be considered.Data on differential diagnosis were only found with cluster A and cluster B PD.CONCLUSION ASD in high-functioning adults is associated with a distinct personality profile even if variability exists.Further studies are needed to explore the complex relationship between ASD and PD.
基金supported by the Ministry of Health and Department of Educational Assistance,University and Research of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano
文摘Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which is generally considered a multifactorial disorder that arises owing to a combination of genes and environmental factors. While most cases are idiopathic, in about 10% of the patients a genetic cause can be detected, ascribable to mutations in more than a dozen genes. PD is characterized clinically by tremor, rigidity, reduced mo- tor activity (bradykinesia), and postural instability and pathological- ly by loss of dopaminergic (DA) neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta, loss of DA innervation in the striatum, and the presence of a-synuclein positive aggregates in the form of Lewy bodies. The symptomatic treatment of PD with levodopa, which aims at replac- ing dopamine, remains the gold standard, and no neuroprotective or disease-modifying therapy is available. During treatment, the disease continues to progress, and long-term use of levodopa has import- ant limitations including motor complications termed dyskinesias. Therefore, a pharmacological therapy able to prevent or halt the neu- rodegenerative process is urgently required.
文摘This research explains academic achievement based on the personality characteristics, the psycho-social climate of the classroom in terms of academic engagement in mathematics. The population was high schoolboys and girls in Damghan city in Iran. Participants were randomly selected using a multi-stage cluster method (513 boys and girls) and they simultaneously completed three questionnaires: academic engagement, the psycho-social climate of the classroom and personality characteristics. Path analysis was used to analyze data. The results showed that the direct effects of personality characteristics and psycho-social climate of the classroom on academic achievement were not significant. The direct effects of openness, conscientiousness and psycho-social climate of classroom on academic engagement were significant. The indirect effects (with mediation of academic engagement) and overall effects of openness, conscientiousness and psycho-social climate of classroom on academic achievement were significant, also the effect of academic engagement on academic achievement was significant.
文摘In China, the concept of corporate governance does not have a long history, and the implementation of corporate governance has been growing up with the process of China's enterprise reform especially the SOEs (state-owned enterprises) reform and economic growth. In the last two decades, China's enterprise reform has been the focus of economic reform and system reform, and the importance of corporate governance became clearly recognized among the join stock corporations which had undergone or are ongoing the corporatization progress.
文摘THE people" is a frequently mentioned phrase,to the extent of being the main theme of the report delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)by General Secretary Xi Jinping."We must put the people’s interests above all else,see that the gains of reform and development benefit all our people in a
文摘The other Mogadishu But despite the progress, violence remains a major hurdle. Prior to the MBF. at least 14 people were killed when a hotel in the capital was attacked by aI-Shabab gunmen. Soon after the MBF. there were two car bomb attacks, one near the Mogadishu International Airport and the other close to the presidential palace, killing at least 12 people.
文摘在全球零售额和当天交货量不断增长的时代,实现订单的快速交付和优质分批是影响移动机器人履行系统(Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems,RMFS)拣选效率的关键因素.为构造高质量订单分配批次、提升RMFS系统拣选效率,提出融合大邻域搜索的改进差分进化算法(LNS_DE),引入大邻域搜索的破坏与修复思想及一批基于随机、基于最大代价贡献和基于集中批次的移除算子以及新的插入算子组件,以最小化订单总延迟时间为目标建立订单分批优化模型,并针对不同订单规模算例进行实验仿真.仿真结果表明,所提出的订单分批优化算法较差分进化算法(DE)相比求解质量更优,性能更稳定、收敛速度更快,尤其当订单数量增大时,LNS_DE算法解的平均值优化比例不断扩大,这为提高RMFS系统拣选效率,实现订单快速响应提供有效决策指导.
文摘Gone with the Wind,the masterpiece of the Margaret,M who has spent about ten years on writing this novel and it takes over half a year of her to verify the specific time and place of the involved historical event.Once the masterpiece is published on June 30,1936,it soon broke several records in sales of American publishing;later,it won the prize of Pulitzer and Association of American publishers.While the leading lady of this novel,Scarlett,become an object of admiration among thousands of people.What attract the readerséyes deeply is her unique origin,outstanding features and noble actions.In the meantime,the charming personality of Margaret's Scarlett has conquered us.She is strong to the difficulties;she is persistent to her love;and she is witty to her family.She is the strongest among the people who has endured the hardship as her no matter she has suffered from the war,the poor and leaving her family.What makes her be responsible to the Taylor Manor is her braveness.At the end of the story,she still tells us:tomorrow is another day! We admire her positive attitude to life,and this is why the female character can be everlasting.
文摘The maize population Csyn 4 was improved for three cycles with three recurrent selection methods MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS in northern China. A total of 40 NC Ⅱ testcrosses were made by four testers with Csyn 4 and 10 improved populations, which were evaluated in four environments in the cropping season of 2005. Analysis of variance indicated a significant progress (P〈 0.05) in yield and other chief agronomic traits in the improved populations and testcrosses, demonstrating that the three recurrent selection methods were effective for increasing grain yield of testcrosses and improvement of general combining ability in maize population. The average grain yield increase of population Csyn 4 in MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections was 266.7 kg ha^-1 (5.3%), 288.0 kg ha^-1 (5.7%), and 231.3 kg ha^-1 (4.6%) per cycle, while the grain yield of S 1 progeny of population for Csyn 4 was increased by 420.0 kg ha^-1 (10.9%), 376.0 kg ha^-1 (9.8%), and 414.7 kg ha^-1 (10.8%) per cycle in MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections, respectively. Linear responses (b) in the MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections were the same as the realized responses of the selection (G) for grain yield increase of Csyn 4 and S1 progeny of the populations. The grain yield of testcrosses increased by 3.3-5.2% on average per cycle. The value of heterosis did not display any differences amongst the different cycles of selections. The GCA for yield component traits of population Csyn 4 was improved significantly by means of three selection methods, whereas the GCA for plant height, ear height, days to silking, and days to pollen did not show significant increase in the recurrent selections. GCA for the number of tassel branches were decreased in the selections, while GCA for the number of plant leaves were increased, but the difference was not significant.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No 2013CB338002the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No 11504430
文摘When applying Grover's algorithm to an unordered database, the probabifity of obtaining correct results usually decreases as the quantity of target increases. A four-phase improvement of Grover's algorithm is proposed to fix the deficiency, and the unitary and the phase-matching condition are also proposed. With this improved scheme, when the proportion of target is over 1/3, the probability of obtaining correct results is greater than 97.82% with only one iteration using two phases. When the computational complexity is O( √M/N), the algorithm can succeed with a probability no less than 99.63%.
文摘Our purpose of this paper is to apply the improved Kudryashov method for solving various types of nonlinear fractional partial differential equations. As an application, the time-space fractional Korteweg-de Vries-Burger (KdV-Burger) equation is solved using this method and we get some new travelling wave solutions. To acquire our purpose a complex transformation has been also used to reduce nonlinear fractional partial differential equations to nonlinear ordinary differential equations of integer order, in the sense of the Jumarie’s modified Riemann-Liouville derivative. Afterwards, the improved Kudryashov method is implemented and we get our required reliable solutions where the results are justified by mathematical software Maple-13.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075161).
文摘As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates the models’capability to simulate and predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).Three versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)are used to conduct historical simulations and re-forecast experiments(referred to as EXP1,EXP1-M,and EXP2,respectively).In simulating MJO characteristics,the newly-developed high-resolution BCC-CSM outperforms its predecessors.In terms of MJO prediction,the useful prediction skill of the MJO index is enhanced from 15 days in EXP1 to 22 days in EXP1-M,and further to 24 days in EXP2.Within the first forecast week,the better initial condition in EXP2 largely contributes to the enhancement of MJO prediction skill.However,during forecast weeks 2–3,EXP2 shows little advantage compared with EXP1-M because the increased skill at MJO initial phases 6–7 is largely offset by the degraded skill at MJO initial phases 2–3.Particularly at initial phases 2–3,EXP1-M skillfully captures the wind field and Kelvin-wave response to MJO convection,leading to the highest prediction skill of the MJO.Our results reveal that,during the participation of the CMA models in the S2S Project,both the improved model initialization and updated model physics played positive roles in improving MJO prediction.Future efforts should focus on improving the model physics to better simulate MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and further improve MJO prediction at long lead times.