The Matching Status of Community Family-Care Service Supply and Demand in Shanghai

Shanghai has entered the depth of the current population aging stage, pure old home, and the empty nest family, lonely elderly people are gradually increasing, the elderly how to provide has become an issue concern in public society. However, with the developing of economic and society, the traditional family＇ s structure and function is gradually being weaken, and the traditional idea of raising children for old age is deeply rooted, elderly people are reluctant to leave their original place. So community family-care is becoming the main endowment way. However, there is a big problem in the quantity and quality of service which is supplied by community, the project that a lot of elderly people really needs, the community does not provide, and some projects are now offered to elderly people, the quality still can not fully to meet the needs of older persons. Those problems are urgently need to be solved. This study aims to know the current status of community family-care in Shanghai, starting from the needs of older persons to allocate the community resources rationally, further improve the quality of the pension service, protect the interests of the elderly.

Study on Supply and Demand of Intelligent Home-based Aged Care in Shanghai

The 21st century is an era of aging population. With the accelerated aging of the population in our country, and the grim form of population aging, intelligent home-based care has become a concern for the elderly in the area of ？？care. This paper starts from the new concept of intelligent home-based care services and defines intelligent home care services. It also summarizes the current theoretical researches related to domestic research, which is of great significance for the investigation and research conducted in the later stage of research.

Farmer's Perception on Supply-Demand Matching of New Variety and Its Influence Factors

Using disordered multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression method,385 copies of questionnaires on farmer are analyzed to explore the relationship between peasant's psychological traits,peasant's cognition on seed technology and perception on supplydemand matching of new variety.Research results show that the vast majority of farmers think that current new variety is at high-level supplydemand balance and the oversupply status,and updating speed of new variety on the market is faster;the farmers preferring risk,seeking innovation and having strong learning and cognition ability may select high-level supply-demand matching state,and the farmers understanding the importance and difference of seed technology tend to choose high-level supply-demand matching situation;the farmers with strong learning and cognition ability can acknowledge the importance and difference of seed technology,while the farmers preferring risk can perceive the difference of seed technology;psychology seeking the innovation and learning and cognition ability affect the farmer's perception on supplydemand matching status of new variety via affecting the farmer's cognition on technical difference.

A combined forecasting method for intermittent demand using the automotive aftermarket data

Intermittent demand forecasting is an important challenge in the process of smart supply chain transformation,and accurate demand forecasting can reduce costs and increase efficiency for enterprises.This study proposes an intermittent demand combination forecasting method based on internal and external data,builds intermittent demand feature engineering from the perspective of machine learning,predicts the occurrence of demand by classification model,and predicts non-zero demand quantity by regression model.Based on the strategy selection on the inventory side and the stocking needs on the replenishment side,this study focuses on the optimization of the classification problem,incorporates the internal and external data of the enterprise,and proposes two combination forecasting optimization methods on the basis of the best classification threshold searching and transfer learning,respectively.Based on the real data of auto after-sales business,these methods are evaluated and validated in multiple dimensions.Compared with other intermittent forecasting methods,the models proposed in this study have been improved significantly in terms of classification accuracy and forecasting precision,which validates the potential of combined forecasting framework for intermittent demand and provides an empirical study of the framework in industry practice.The results show that this research can further provide accurate upstream inputs for smart inventory and guarantee intelligent supply chain decision-making in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

Quantitative assessment of the supply,demand and flows of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin,China

Ecosystem service flow is essential for transporting,transforming,and maintaining ecosystem services and connecting supply and demand.This study attempted to quantitatively assess the supply and demand flows of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin in 2000,2010,and 2020;assess the evolution of the spatial patterns of ecosystem service flow at the provincial,watershed and urban agglomeration scales;and design a zoning standard for ecosystem service flow.The results showed as follows.1)Between 2000 and 2020,the Yangtze River had a progressive drop in its freshwater supply,water conservation service and carbon sequestration service flows.The decline rates for these services were measured at 10.90%,11.11%,and 5.17%,respectively.The climate regulation service flow exhibited a pattern of initial fall followed by a subsequent increase,characterized by a decline rate of 35.53%.2)The lowest was the ecosystem service flow in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Freshwater supply service flow and water conservation service flow were the highest in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.Carbon sequestration service flow and climate regulation service flow were the highest in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.3)From 2000 to 2020,the change ratios of the area proportion of the confluence,flow,and outflow areas in the Yangtze River Basin were 1.06,3.17,and 0.86,respectively.The results of this research could offer decision support for regulating ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin,promoting sustainable regional development and achieving rational use of the basin resources.

Operation Strategy and Matching of Supply and Demand of CCHP System with Various Building Types

The important indications for assessing CCHP(combined cooling,heating and power)systems are their supply-demand matching characteristics between the user demand side and the energy supply side.These characteristics are primarily influenced by different building types and operating strategies.In view of the energy redundancy of the following electric load(FEL)and following thermal load(FTL)operation strategies and the energy deficiency of the following hybrid electric-heating load(FHL)operation strategy,this paper proposes an improved following balanced heat-electrical load(IFBL)operation strategy based on the following balanced heat-electrical load(FBL)operation strategy.Based on the energy utilization rate as the objective function,this paper optimizes the installed capacity of CCHP systems in different buildings and proposes an energy factor for evaluating the supply-demand matching characteristics of the system.The results show that the energy utilization rate and energy factor of the system under IFBL are optimal relative to the other operation strategies.Secondly,the hotel building has the highest energy utilization rate and the lowest energy factor;on the contrary,the office building has the lowest energy utilization rate and the highest energy factor.Finally,the analysis of supply-demand matching for different building types under multiple operating strategies shows that the hospital and hotel systems exhibit optimal supply-demand matching performance under the IFBL strategy,with values of 0.945 and 0.938,respectively;on the contrary,the office system has an optimal supply-demand matching of 0.935 under the FEL strategy.Under the FTL strategy,the systems of all three buildings exhibit poor matching performance.

Open Innovation and New Mechanism of Market-Based Technology Diffusion from MNCs

The international community has blamed developing countries for the lack of intellectual property rights(IPR)protection-not least the“forced technology transfers”-in attracting foreign direct investment(FDI).This paper employs the largesample contract data of multinational companies’(MNCs)IT R&D transactions in China to discuss this controversy from a unique perspective of MNCs in the role of contractors.Our findings suggest that MNCs initially guarded their know-how before the 2000s under closed innovation,but have started to take the initiative to transfer technology to local partners as open innovation held sway.China’s structured market entities and huge demand for technology transactions have served as key drivers for MNCs to transfer technology,which has been further boosted by the new business model of open innovation.This paper’s empirical analysis not only helps unravel the“black box”of technology transfers by MNCs,but reveals how late-moving developing countries may make better use of FDI referencing China’s experience on the three dimensions of market opportunities,structured entities,and economies of scale.

Design and error estimates of cut tobacco feeding by wind system

The cut tobacco transporting is the absolutely necessarily important tache, Whether the transportation process stability is a direct impact on production quality and manufacturing standards. The wind system is adopted by most tobacco companies because of it caused least disruptive of the cut tobacco structure and the pipe network layout of system is flexible, but the wind system is greater influence by itself, different control methods are caused greater difference of process indicators, for example essence and spice ingredients, moisture proportion and smoke flavor. Based on the above reasons, so we need to design the control method of wind system necessarily, in addition we must checkout the control accuracy opportunely, so that it is satisfied by the actual working conditions.

基于供需理论的生成式人工智能赋能情报工作范式模型构建与应用研究

[目的/意义]当前生成式人工智能的发展对社会产生了强烈冲击。为响应国家创新发展的迫切需求,如何利用生成式人工智能更好地完成情报工作,以满足用户的情报需求,已成为当前情报学领域关注的热点问题。[方法/过程]基于供需理论提出从数据供给侧(Supply)、智慧情报分析中台(Analysis)、情报需求侧(Demand)三方构建生成式人工智能赋能情报工作范式模型——SAD范式模型,深入分析生成式人工智能赋能情报工作机理,并结合国际前沿项目案例探讨生成式人工智能与情报工作的前瞻性融合发展。[结果/结论]生成式人工智能赋能情报工作范式模型SAD,可以更好地促进生成式人工智能赋能情报工作的各个环节,提高情报工作效率,为情报工作范式研究提供了新思路。

面向治理现代化的公共服务理论思考:内涵、要求与路径

公共服务作为保障国家和社会良好运行的物质载体,逐渐成为现代国家治理的合法性基础。面对人民群众需求层次提升的现实要求和推进治理现代化的时代使命,公共服务被赋予新的内涵和要求。而这种变化的具体要求和表现以及由此对公共服务供给方式带来的挑战,并没有在当前的研究中得到充分讨论。新时期公共服务现代化的要求在于实现服务配置的公平正义、服务供给的可持续性和服务供需的有效匹配。因此,有必要基于公共服务在内容体系、供给侧和需求侧的变化,结合公共服务供给的基本过程,构建理解治理现代化下公共服务发展要求的分析框架,重新思考公共服务的供给方式,提出公共服务的空间路径、财政路径和技术路径。一是科学配置有限的资源,优化空间功能与设施布局,重构公共服务的空间结构和空间秩序,以空间资源配置回应空间正义。二是明晰政府、市场和社会等主体的责权关系和角色,完善层级政府间的财政制度设计,以财政治理促进可持续发展。三是通过打造数字化的公共服务场景,利用数字技术优化公共服务需求识别和反馈机制,以技术赋能实现供需有效匹配。

水源供给服务供需流空间不匹配特征识别及优化

如何识别水源供给服务在自然-人类社会系统中的空间流动过程和匹配特征,对于区域水资源管理和可持续利用具有重要意义。以重庆市为研究区域,基于InVEST模型和社会经济发展视角定量评估流域尺度下的水源供给量和需水量,结合水资源安全指数和热点分析构建水源供给服务流模型,揭示水源供给服务供需空间匹配关系,依据水源供给服务流空间属性特征划分供需匹配关系的区域类型,借助地理探测器从自然、社会和生态三个角度讨论影响各区域类型水源供给服务供需匹配关系的影响因素。结果表明:(1) 2000、2010、2020年重庆市流域水源供给量与需水量均先减少后上升,供需比平均值分别为1.17、1.08、0.9,整体供需不匹配的问题逐渐得到缓解,但局部仍有供需不匹配现象。空间上中高度赤字区域集中在主城区内,向外辐射为轻度赤字区域,盈余区域分布在东北和东南方向。(2) 2000、2010、2020年重庆市水源供需比冷、热点范围均在缩小,流域面积分别相对减少了25.34%、9.2%。水源供给服务流空间上整体呈现出自东北、东南方向向西流动的路径,同时冷点区内部呈边缘向中心流动。(3)汇流区集中在西北部,经流区位于中部,外流区集中在东南和与东北部。影响汇流区供需匹配关系的主导因素是蒸散发,解释力为74.08%;影响经流区的主导因素是第三产业GDP,解释力为51.44%;外流区各影响因子的解释力均较低。不同影响因子之间蒸散发与其它因素的交互作用显著增强。研究可以为重庆市自然资源的管理与流域生态补偿机制的建立提供科学依据。

企业数字化转型与供应链韧性

数字化转型正逐渐成为驱动供应链转型升级的新引擎,如何利用数字化转型提高供应链韧性是当前亟需研究的现实问题,但尚未有文献对此提供直接的经验证据。文章在构建供应链韧性指标基础上,基于2007—2022年A股上市企业面板数据,检验了企业数字化转型对供应链韧性的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明,企业数字化转型可以显著促进供应链韧性提升。解构供应链韧性后发现,企业数字化转型可以提高供应链抵抗力和供应链恢复力,且对供应链恢复力的影响更显著。从传导机制看,企业数字化转型通过推动供应链多元化配置和优化供需匹配两个渠道促进供应链韧性提升。异质性分析表明,对于环境不确定性高、内部控制水平低企业,以及位于产业链下游和市场化水平低地区,企业数字化转型对供应链韧性的助推作用更加显著。进一步研究发现,数字化转型促进供应链韧性提升并未造成企业经济绩效损失,而是持续推动企业经济表现;“链主”企业和供应链政策在数字化转型提高供应链韧性过程中发挥一定的正向激励作用。文章不仅为系统理解企业数字化转型与供应链韧性的关系提供了新的分析视角,也为打造数字供应链和畅通国民经济循环提供了政策启示。

把握数字消费高质量发展的着力点

推进经济高质量发展必须构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用。数字经济快速发展,引发居民消费发生巨大变革,在消费主体、消费客体和消费环境方面,数字消费都呈现出典型的新特征。数字消费有助于提升消费需求、有助于推动产业结构升级、有助于促进供需匹配。应着力于消除城乡消费差距过大、推进新型基础设施建设、培育供需匹配创新动力和推进数字消费治理升级等多个方面,助推数字消费高质量发展,加快构建双循环新发展格局。

电商政策的数字化效应:作用机制与双重溢出

迅猛发展的电子商务在数字经济催化下日益彰显出其对企业数字化转型的内生驱动力。以国家电子商务示范城市建设作为准自然实验,探讨国家电子商务示范城市试点政策对企业数字化转型的影响。研究表明:国家电子商务示范城市试点政策显著提高了企业数字化转型水平,该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;试点政策对中小企业、产业链下游企业、市场潜能高和政府财政赤字低的城市中的企业影响更为明显。成本效应、供需匹配效应、生产性服务业集聚效应与政府注意力分配效应是关键的中间作用机制。试点政策带动了消费互联网的发展,并使其与工业互联网建设产生协同效应,推动企业数字化转型。进一步分析表明,试点政策在电子商务发展较弱的地区主要表现出辐射带动的空间溢出效应,并通过产业链溢出效应促进了上游企业的数字化转型。研究结论为进一步优化电商政策的制定、促进企业高质量发展提供了政策启示。

有效资本存量、供需匹配与中国经济稳定增长

在中国高质量发展不断深化的背景下,有效投资通过优化供给结构可实现供给和需求的进一步匹配,进而克服中国现阶段有效供给不足的问题。本文以不同产业资本效率为权重构建了中国有效资本存量指标体系,相比于以往研究,从理论方面对简单加总的资本存量进行了改进。同时,通过结合不同产业的投资效率以及资本占比得出中国投资结构面临的问题。研究发现:中国投资结构面临的问题是低投资效率的产业获得高份额的投资以及高投资效率的产业没有获得足够的投资份额,进而导致中国有效供给不足和内循环不通畅。因此,需要通过增加有效投资来盘活存量资本和优化供给结构,确保实现经济的稳定增长。

三水河流域农业生产空间水资源时空匹配性分析与调控研究

水资源短缺是长期制约农业经济发展的关键因素之一.针对以雨养农业为主的三水河流域农业用水需求大、水资源短缺以及用水效率低的突出问题,该研究采用水平衡理论和Penman-Monteith法,在年度、月度与作物层面上分别得到2020年三水河各子流域单元农业生产空间的供、需水量,分析供需匹配的时空特征,并判断供需矛盾的等级与类型.结果表明,三水河流域农业生产空间水资源供需匹配存在空间和时间错位性,水资源匹配性北高南低;年度农业用水整体处于“水平衡-临界匮缺”的匹配性等级,农业主产小流域水匮缺程度相对严重;月度农业生产空间水资源匹配性时空差异显著,盈余型、匮缺型和盈匮相持型小流域并存;作物用水匹配性整体表现为苹果>玉米>小麦,苹果用水的匹配关系接近于平衡,为流域用水方面的优势作物.据此,研究提出农业生产空间调控建议,为提高三水河流域农业生产水资源利用效率和优化农业空间布局提供参考.

面向国家安全的情报需求管理:研究必要、机制构建与实践应用

[研究目的]当前,在国家安全形势日益复杂的背景下,由于情报需求增多、难度加大、情报人员能力不足、工作时间压缩等原因,情报机构能够提供的产品远远无法满足所有的情报需求,有必要开展面向国家安全的情报需求管理研究。[研究方法]从“人、事、物、流程、标准”等管理要素构成的视角解析国家安全情报需求管理的主体、内容范围、模式方法等,创设一套包括“情报管理者”“情报需求管理信息系统”“情报需求管理流程”在内的需求管理工作机制,提出在管理实践中需要注意保持决策者和情报工作机构之间的关系平衡、促进情报工作机构之间的多方协作、重视“机会分析”、控制需求管理信息系统中的战略情报需求占比等问题。[研究结论]研究表明,国家安全情报需求管理将有助于解决国家安全情报需求“过剩”与情报供应能力不足之间的矛盾,为中国国家情报工作规范化建设提供参考借鉴。

数字经济与品牌投资融合发展探析

当今世界正在经历一场大范围、深层次的由数字技术带来的社会经济革命,数字经济发展成了一个全新的经济类型。产品如何在市场中脱颖而出,关键问题在于有效的价值定位和独特的销售点,品牌独有的外溢效应赋予产品附加价值,数字经济以其独特优势为产品提供新平台、新模式。通过品牌投资数字化、研发创新推动品牌建设、云数据结构化调整,以及需求与服务业深度融合等措施,可以发挥数字经济与品牌投资的协同效应,互相促进、互相影响,带动市场经济发展。

不完全信息下云制造平台动态匹配时域与稳定匹配研究

鉴于现有研究侧重于构建云制造平台供需匹配模型并开发求解算法,批处理匹配时域长度在不确定环境下对云制造平台运营的影响关注不足,针对云制造平台产能供需双方随机到达并可随时离开的复杂情景,建立了基于动态二部图的Markov决策模型,并提出基于状态和动作重塑技术的Q-learning动态时域匹配决策方法。该方法根据平台订单和共享产能的聚合信息,自适应地决策匹配时域长度,并产生考虑了供需双方偏好的稳定匹配方案。数值实验表明,在多种情景和问题参数下,该方法的综合平台运营指标优于常用的随机事件触发和固定匹配时域方法。实验结果为云制造平台供需匹配运营提供了管理启示。

基于供需匹配的厦门岛骑行环境优化策略研究

慢行交通系统是城市交通网络的重要组成部分,良好的慢行交通系统有助于与营造出舒适、安全、便捷的城市环境。近年来,在绿色健康城市理念之下,骑行环境作为城市慢行交通系统的重要组成部分,开始被众多城市重视并且得到了快速的发展,居民骑行需求的区域分异特征及骑行环境的趋适性是发展骑行交通的基础。然而,目前已建成的骑行环境是否满足城市发展需要以及如何科学构建城市骑行环境成为人们关注的热点问题。选择厦门岛作为研究对象,借助共享单车大数据与城市用地类型,通过ArcGIS平台,分别测度了居民骑行的现状需求、潜在需求及其空间上存在的差异,同时通过城市建成环境中与骑行相关的十个指标分析了城市骑行环境建设的空间差异。进而通过对城市骑行环境供需的IPA分析,将厦门岛划分为四类骑行区。通过总结四类骑行区的建成环境特征,并进一步将四类骑行区内的现状、潜在骑行需求与表征骑行便捷性、骑行安全性与骑行舒适性的十个因子进行相关性分析,发现目前岛内的骑行环境建设并没有显著符合骑行需求。基于该研究结果以及各类骑行区的供需匹配关系进一步提出岛内骑行环境优化策略。本文提出了城市骑行需求的一种量化方法与骑行环境建成特征的评估体系,发现骑行需求与骑行环境建设均存在空间差异且二者不完全相关。将两者结合进行供需对比分析,能够有效地确定城市中各地区骑行发展的必要性与重要性,进而为城市骑行环境建设提供建议。