Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

CHANGE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY IN CHINA

After 40 years of painstaking work, much improvement has been made in regional difference. The road of that development, however, is by no means a smooth one, full of setbacks and failure. The past forty years may be roughly divided into four stages: 1.a stage of rehabilitation and large scale transition towards the interior( 1949-1959), 2. the dispersion stage with an emphasis on the construction of the interior (1960-1977), 3. a stage of moving back to the coastland and relative concentration of constructions of large scale industries (1978-1980), and 4. a stage of taking the coastland as the focal point for regional development (since 1981). Since the late 1970s, China began to carry out what is known as the Open-door policy. Great changes have taken place in regional development policy.

The research of economic development law in resourceful city

The resource advantage of resourceful region has made the region develop very fast. However because the resource is of exhausting character, this means that the region has hidden troubles of economic depression. The paper analyzes the formation of resourceful region and the law of resourceful regions economic development, and then the paper brings forward that the resourceful region has a potential danger of economic depression. Considering Chinas economic development practice, the paper puts forward a basic way of thinking. That is: we must attach importance to the problem of industrial structure when we pay attention to existing resource advantage in order to avoid the simplification of regional industrial structure and to avoid entering a vicious cycle.

The Evolutive Law concerning Relationship between Economic Growth and Farmers' Income Increase in Xinjiang since the Reform and Opening-up:An Empirical Analysis of the VEC Model

We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.

Medium-term and Long-term Environmental Economic Policies on Thermal Power Industry in China Seen from the New Environment Protection Law

In the newly revised Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China that has been implemented since January 1,2015,there is a lot of emphasis on environmental economic policies. In this paper,according to the current situation of environmental pollution and protection in thermal power industry,it is proposed that based on the new environmental protection law,it is needed to study various environmental economic policies on thermal power industry and analyze the effects on environmental cost of thermal power enterprises at the macro level. At the micro level,it is necessary to control environmental cost of thermal power enterprises effectively,and establish a suitable environmental management system for environmental economic policies including environmental cost accounting and trading of emission rights,thereby improving environmental management level of thermal power enterprises.

Regional Innovation Policies for High-Technology Firms： The Importance of the Cluster Life Cycle

The present work makes an in-depth analysis of an aspect not yet sufficiently examined by the studies into regional innovation systems, relating to why the policy makers must adopt regional innovation policies in accordance with the development cycle of the active clusters in the territory. The analysis carried out in the course of the work contributes towards understanding the validity of an evolutionary-type development model for which the regional innovation policies for the growth of high-tech firms should dynamically change in relation to the various cluster stages. The development model proposed provides a framework for the policy makers in order to state more efficiently through time the regional innovation strategies.

Study on Ecological Compensation Policy among the Micro Subjects on Water Energy Resources Development

The subjects of ecological compensation involve the nation, society, development enterprises of wa-ter-energy resources, as well as the location of resource itself. This paper systematically studies on how to make “water energy sources market compensation policy”, “the economic compensation policy for relevant interest subjects” and “the ecological compensation policy of basin ecological water.” So, it is necessary to exert the complementary function between market compensation and government compensation by the means of economic compensation and to establish the ecological compensation policy of basin ecological water, which is beneficial to coordinating the stakeholders’ interests of cross-region or inter-basin. And it is important and significant to establish constantly perfected ecological compensation policy among the micro subjects on water energy resources development, so as to coordinate interest relationships among various subjects and finally reach the aim of sustainable use of water energy resources and environmental protection as possible.

Economic reform, open-door policy and changes in spatial development patterns in China

The study profiles and explains the significant changes that have taken place in China's spatial development patterns since the inception of its economic reform and opening two decades ago. Principal component analysis is used to delineate spatial patterns. The analyses show that prior to the reform China's spatial development pattern was characterized by the dominance of the three municipalities and the Northeast, as well as by both the coast-interior and the north-south disparities. Northern provinces were generally more industrialized and economically powerful than the southern ones. After two decades of reform, regional development has become multi-centered with South China, the Yangtze Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin area being the three most important regions of the country. The coastal provinces as a whole rose to prominence on China's economic map while the Northeast has diminished its clout. The coast-interior gap not only remains but may have widened. The north-south disparity also still exists but there has been a role reversal with the south now in the lead position. Virtually all inland provinces now find themselves at or near the low end of the development spectrum. We argue that the major reason for the recent shifts in Chinese space economy is the spatially differentiated economic growth resulted from the reform and open door policy and from the new, uneven development strategy adopted by the Chinese government. The paper discusses four specific factors that have reshaped China's spatial development patterns.

Research on the Policies and Means Changes of Macro Regulation and Control of Chinese and Foreign Governments

In the process of economic development, government uses the "visible hand" to achieve macroeconomic regulation and control for "market failure", which has been common knowledge among people after World War II. Comparing policy and means adopted by Chinese and foreign governments in macro regulation and control, we can see that the choice is different in different historical periods and the change of emphasis in macro regulation and control policy and means has the convergence tendency. We can make the following conclusion from research of the change rules of macro regulation and control means in the market economic condition of Chinese and foreign governments: supply-side structural reform in China complies with the basic rules of development of market economy.

基于PSM-DID方法的地方数字经济政策实施成效评估

[目的/意义]数字经济政策已成为政府促进经济发展的重要政策工具,实证分析我国地方数字经济政策的实施成效,有助于推动地方经济实现高质量发展。[方法/过程]本文利用2010—2021年中国337个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用PSM-DID方法检验了地方数字经济政策对地区经济发展的影响。[结果/结论]地方数字经济政策能够显著促进地区经济增长,但其促进作用存在两年时滞;人口规模较大或行政等级较高的城市数字经济政策实施成效更显著;中西部地区数字经济政策对地区经济发展的促进作用超过了东部地区。

Spatial Pattern and Evolution of Urbanization in Shandong Province

Based on Arc GIS and SPSS Statistics,authors of this paper used the principal component analysis(PCA) and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and selected 6 indicators concerning population,land,and economy to study the spatial pattern of urbanization and regional economic differences in Shandong Province,namely urban population,urban population density,construction land,area of urban districts,disposable income of residents,and added value of the tertiary industry.The development of urbanization in Shandong Province was measured by the proportion of urban population to the total population in 2000,2005,2010,and 2014 respectively.It is hoped that this paper will provide a theoretical basis for building an orderly regional spatial structure and coordinating regional urban decision-making.

气候政策协同对区域经济高质量发展影响研究

基于政策协同视角,本文以2007—2020年中国30个省(区、市)为研究对象,构建经济高质量发展评价指标体系,采用熵值法测度区域经济高质量发展水平,并运用双固定效应模型进行实证分析,以探究气候政策对区域经济高质量发展的影响。研究表明:气候政策协同对区域经济高质量发展呈现先抑制后促进的“U”型影响;当气候政策协同水平高于7.9时,对区域经济高质量发展的促进作用开始凸显;气候政策协同水平对中西部地区的经济高质量发展呈现出“U”型影响,而对东部地区作用不显著;后巴黎时代气候政策协同对区域经济高质量发展的影响愈发显著。因此,要加强气候政策顶层设计,实现自上而下纵向协同;要利用政治优势和体制基础,加强政策主体横向协同;要建立跨区域、跨部门协调机制,实现信息资源充分流动,实现应对气候变化与区域经济高质量发展的“双赢”。

基础设施多重属性建构与中国区域经济协调发展

基础设施建设是构建优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局和国土空间体系、促进区域协调发展的重要手段。进入全面建设社会主义现代化国家新阶段,以基础设施建设推进区域经济协调发展面临新的现实挑战,需要进一步厘清基础设施的内涵和发展规律。在区分基础设施的政策属性、资本属性和产业属性基础上,从国家尺度、区域尺度和地方尺度进行分析表明,基础设施建设对区域经济协调发展和塑造空间发展格局具有差异化效应,尤其是基础设施建设推动无形资本的积累和崛起,带来了区域发展路径的分异和区域发展能力的差距。因此,以基础设施建设推进区域经济协调发展,需要以新型基础设施建设创新区域间合作方式,以无形资本培育缩小区域间发展能力差距,以多维政策协调统筹空间发展动能。

区域一体化政策能否促进城市包容性增长?——基于长江经济带的实证检验

实施长江经济带区域一体化政策是促进城市包容性增长的重要举措。文章基于2008—2021年中国279个城市面板数据,运用双重差分模型、中介效应模型和空间溢出效应模型探究长江经济带区域一体化政策对城市包容性增长的直接效应、影响机制及空间效应。研究发现:长江经济带区域一体化政策能够显著促进城市包容性增长,经一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立;异质性检验表明,区域一体化政策对东部地区以及省会城市的正向促进作用较强;从影响机制来看,区域一体化政策通过提升技术创新水平、推动产业结构高级化和合理化促进城市包容性增长;进一步分析发现,区域一体化政策对城市包容性增长具有正向空间溢出效应,且存在溢出边界效应。

区域制造业发展与经济增长的关系探究

随着全球化的推进和我国经济的高速发展,区域制造业作为支撑经济增长的重要部分,其影响和发展趋势日益受到关注。文章聚焦于区域制造业发展与经济增长之间的内在联系,旨在揭示全球化和中国经济快速增长背景下,制造业作为关键驱动力对区域经济增长的具体影响。研究发现区域制造业的发展层次显著影响经济增长速度,特别是东部沿海地区制造业与经济增长的关联更为紧密。此外,高附加值制造业在推动经济发展方面展现出更强效力。基于上述发现,建议政府应采取措施,包括调整产业结构、强化产业间协同及创新能力建设,以促进区域制造业的可持续发展,并最终实现更加均衡和协同的国家经济增长。文章为政策制定者提供了有益的启示,以制定相应产业政策,平衡区域间发展和促进全国范围内的协同发展。

中国碳交易试点政策溢出效应下的区域间隐含碳排放转移责任研究

在党的二十大对“双碳”目标进行了全新战略部署的背景下,如何厘清区域间隐含碳排放转移责任是推进和优化中国地区碳交易市场的关键。基于多期差分模型和空间差分模型,评估了碳交易试点政策实施对本地和邻地碳减排产生的直接影响和溢出效应,并进一步从现实角度出发,分析并佐证了碳交易试点政策是引起试点地区向其他非试点地区转移隐含碳排放责任的驱动因素。研究发现:(1)碳交易试点政策有效促进了试点地区的碳减排效应,该结论通过了一系列的稳健性检验;(2)碳交易试点政策的实施有效减少了试点地区本地的直接碳排放和邻地转移溢出到本地的间接碳排放,但是试点地区会将自身的碳排放责任转移到经济地理接近且经济发展状况相似的非试点地区;(3)在当前碳交易政策实施阶段,试点地区均为中国净碳责任转出区域,且碳交易试点政策实施驱动了试点地区向非试点地区转入隐含碳排放责任,且非试点地区间的隐含碳排放责任转移不受政策效应影响,其目的是提升其经济发展水平。

区域金融发展对企业投资效率的影响

基于中国情境探讨区域金融发展水平对企业投资效率的影响及其作用机制意义重大。基于2005—2021年我国A股上市公司年度数据和区域金融发展水平数据,分析地区金融发展水平对企业投资效率的影响,得到以下结论:①区域金融发展水平能够通过缓解企业融资约束显著促进企业投资效率提升,且这一结论具有稳健性;②区域金融发展水平对“投资不足”企业和“投资过度”企业的投资效率均具有显著促进作用,但这种促进作用具有明显的异质性,对东部和中部地区、行业竞争能力越强以及股权较为集中企业的促进作用更大;③经济政策不确定性在区域金融发展促进企业投资效率过程中起到负向调节作用。

经济政策不确定性、区域经济合作与全球粮食贸易增长

本文利用全球30个主要粮食贸易国的粮食贸易数据,实证检验了全球经济政策不确定性上升对全球粮食贸易整体产生的影响,选取“一带一路”倡议、区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)、北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)和欧盟4个具有代表性的区域合作框架,检验其对不同区域经济合作成员粮食贸易增长影响的差异,并构建模型进行机制检验。研究显示,全球经济政策不确定性上升促进全球粮食贸易整体有所增长,机制检验结果验证了全球经济政策不确定性上升倒逼不同区域、国家之间加强区域经济合作,促进区域内成员之间粮食贸易增长,尤其是以“一带一路”倡议为代表的区域经济合作深入、持续、广泛地开展,切实提升了共建“一带一路”国家粮食贸易合作水平和一体化程度,带动了全球粮食贸易增长。基于此,本文提出加强农业国际合作平台建设、持续深入推进“一带一路”倡议高质量发展等对策建议,以维护粮食国际贸易持续、健康发展,保障全球粮食安全。

绩效期望落差对企业资产剥离的影响研究

基于企业行为理论,以2004~2019年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,探讨A股上市公司的资产剥离选择如何受到历史期望落差与社会期望落差的影响,并进一步检验企业经营环境对这二者之间关系的调节作用。研究表明:历史期望落差与社会期望落差,二者均显著正向影响了企业的资产剥离选择,且后者的影响程度更大。补充检验结果表明:风险承担和媒体关注分别在历史期望落差与企业资产剥离选择,以及社会期望落差与企业资产剥离选择之间发挥了部分中介作用。此外,区域风险文化和中介市场发展,均正向调节社会期望落差与企业资产剥离选择之间的关系;而经济政策不确定性,则强化了历史期望落差与企业资产剥离选择之间的正相关关系。

“国家体育消费试点城市”政策对地区经济增长的影响--基于准自然实验的证据

消费是驱动经济高质量发展的核心引擎,国家开展体育消费试点城市建设旨在培育体育消费新动能,促进体育产业高质量发展,提高人民生活品质。该研究选取2016—2022年全国288个地级市层面的面板数据,采用双重差分法对“国家体育消费试点城市”政策影响地区经济增长的作用机制进行了科学测度。结果表明:“国家体育消费试点城市”政策的实施显著促进了地区经济增长,推动地区经济增长了4.1个百分点,进行稳健性检验后结果依然显著;中介效应分析表明,“国家体育消费试点城市”政策主要通过促进第三产业发展推动地区经济增长;区域异质性检验表明,相较于东部地区而言,“国家体育消费试点城市”政策对中西部地区经济增长的推动作用更为明显,因而有利于促进区域经济均衡发展。建议:巩固试点成果,提升辐射带动作用;丰富消费业态,提升体育消费黏性;挖掘资源禀赋,促进区域协同发展。