A Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Estmation: Maximum Values of Magnitudes and Peak Ground Accelerations

A rather simple straightforward procedure of estimating maximum values of the considered parameter (earthquake magnitude in a given region or seismic peak ground acceleration at the considered site) and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future time interval of a given length is presented. To assess the peak ground acceleration using this method, the input information is the earthquake catalog and the regressive relation where the peak seismic acceleration at a given point bears the magnitude and epicentral distance of the site considered (seismic attenuation law). The method is based on the Bayesian approach, in which the influence of uncertainties of magnitudes and seismic acceleration values can be taken into account. The main assumptions for the method are the Poissonian character of the seismic event flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter’s type with a cutoff maximum value for the estimated parameter, and an earthquake catalog that has a rather large number of events. The method has been applied to seismic hazard estimation in California, the Balkans, and Japan.

Attenuation of peak ground accelerations from the great Wenchuan earthquake

Over 800 accelerograms recorded by 272 ground-level stations during the Wenchuan earthquake are used to analyze the influence of rupture distance, local site conditions and azimuth on peak ground accelerations （PGAs）. To achieve a better understanding of the characteristics of ground motions, the spatial distributions of the EW, NS and UD components of PGAs are obtained. Comparisons between the EW and NS components, the fault-normal and fault-parallel components, and the vertical and horizontal components of PGAs are performed, and the regression formula of the vertical-to-horizontal ratio of PGAs is developed. The attenuation relationship of peak horizontal accelerations （PHAs） is compared with several contemporary attenuation relationships. In addition, an analysis of residuals is conducted to identify the potential effects of rupture distance, azimuth and site conditions on the observed values of PHAs. The analysis focuses on medium-hard soil site conditions, as they provided most of the data used in this study.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan and Almaty city in peak ground accelerations

As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.

Prediction of peak ground acceleration of Iran's tectonic regions using a hybrid soft computing technique

A new model is derived to predict the peak ground acceleration（PGA） utilizing a hybrid method coupling artificial neural network（ANN） and simulated annealing（SA）, called SA-ANN. The proposed model relates PGA to earthquake source to site distance, earthquake magnitude, average shear-wave velocity,faulting mechanisms, and focal depth. A database of strong ground-motion recordings of 36 earthquakes,which happened in Iran’s tectonic regions, is used to establish the model. For more validity verification,the SA-ANN model is employed to predict the PGA of a part of the database beyond the training data domain. The proposed SA-ANN model is compared with the simple ANN in addition to 10 well-known models proposed in the literature. The proposed model performance is superior to the single ANN and other existing attenuation models. The SA-ANN model is highly correlated to the actual records（R=0.835 and r =0.0908） and it is subsequently converted into a tractable design equation.

Comparison of the cumulative absolute velocity and acceleration peak value based on Wenchuan earthquake data

This paper discusses and presents the cumulative absolute velocity （CAV） parameters of the Wenchuan earthquake. Additionally, the CAV calculated from recorded data for the earthquake is compared to the peak ground acceleration（PGA）, based on a brief analysis of background information. Accordingly, the paper studied the relationship between the CAV and PGA, and 3 CAV/PGA ratio charts were obtained in three different sub-directions. Linear and polynomial fitting operations were then used to analyze the potential discipline and characteristics in these directions. Finally, in the study, we investigated the applicability of using the CAV parameter for earthquake observation systems, and the CAV parameter was paired with the currently used PGA to provide earthquake observers and emergency responders with a theoretical basis.

Relationship between Modified Mercalli Intensity and peak ground acceleration in Myanmar

In this study, the previously reported isoseismal maps are compiled and used to carefully investigate the macroseismic intensity in terms of the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale, based on the engineering ground-motion parameter, as the peak ground acceleration (PGA), inferred from the ground-motion attenuation characteristic of Myanmar. The preliminary relationship between the MMI and PGA is reported to be a function of log10(PGA) = 0.2526MMI – 3.1006. The strongly correlated MMI-PGA relationship obtained in this study, if confirmed, will be particularly useful in real-time applications for damage prediction or engineering parameter determination when an earthquake occurs in or nearby to Myanmar. Compared with the previously proposed MMI-PGA relationships for other regions, the standard of building construction in Myanmar is not high enough to withstand the hazards from earthquakes, particularly at higher levels of ground motion. Therefore, the standard building code for Myanmar should be modified in order to reduce future hazards arising from earthquakes.

Estimation of peak relative velocity and peak absolute acceleration of linear SDOF systems

We have found some mistakes in the article by Jianwei Song et al. （2007）. The revisions are given below：

The Accelerated Expansion of the Universe in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle

The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.

Amplification Effect of Peak Ground Motion Acceleration in ClassⅡ and Ⅲ Sites over Shandong Province

In this paper, the amplification factor （ks ） of peek ground motion with different exceedance probability in class Ⅱ and Ⅲ sites over Shandong Province was estimated by analyzing the seismic response data of soil layers collected from 358 boreholes of class Ⅱ sites and 140 boreholes of class Ⅲ site. From the results, one can conclude that： （1） The scatter plot of ks generally obeys a normal distribution ; （2） ks decreases with the increase of the strength of input ground motion, which is more apparent in Class Ⅲ site than in class lI site; （3） for class Ⅱ site, with the increase of depth of the bedrock interface where ground motion inputs, ks increases gradually until to a stable value when the depth reaches up to approximately 20 meters or larger. Yet, for class Ⅲ site, ks is insensitive to the depth; （4） the average of ks for class Ⅱ site is 1.47, slightly larger than that used in the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China （ GB 18306-2001 ）. Also, ks in class Ⅱ and Ⅲ sites at different levels of peak ground acceleration over Shandong Province is preliminarily discussed in the paper.

A new empirical equation of shear wave velocity to predict the different peak surface accelerations for Jakarta city

Site condition and bedrock depth play important roles in the determination of peak surface acceleration(PSA)values by earthquake motions.The soil parameters of shear wave velocity(Vs)and standard penetration test-number(N)value for Jakarta city are available up to 100 m below the Earth’s surface even though the typical depths to bedrock are in excess of 100 m.This study referred to the base motion peak ground acceleration(PGA)values of 0.100 g,0.218 g and 0.378 g to predict the PSA values using the Nonlinear Earthquake site Response Analysis(NERA)to analyse a simulated dataset for the bedrock depths of 100 m,200 m,300 m,400 m and 500 m with conditioned by clayey and sandy soils.A new empirical equation of Vs=102.48 N0.297(m/s)was proposed to calculate the values of Vsused as an input parameter in the NERA programme for the prediction of seismic wave propagation.The results showed that the PSA values are dependent on the amplitude of seismic waves,depths of bedrock and the local site conditions.Changes in the PSA values from 41.0%to 51.5%and from 46.1%to 79.8%for the bedrocks overlain by sand,from 20.0%to 42.1%and from 45.9%to 58.8%for the bedrocks overlain by clay with increasing of bedrock depths from 200 m to 300 m and from 400 m to 500 m,respectively,were predicted for a 2500-year return period earthquake.Decreases in the PSA values by 41.0%,51.5%,46.1%,79.8%for the bedrocks overlain by sand and by 20.0%,42.1%,45.9%,58.8%for the bedrocks overlain by clay were predicted for a 2500-year return period earthquake due to the bedrock depth changes of 200 m,300 m,400 m,500 m.Large-magnitude earthquake of Jakarta city has a significant effect on an increase or a decrease of the PSA value with depth of bedrock and may cause the vibration damage to buildings and other constructions on the ground.The analysis of the PSA value and PSA ratio influenced by the PGA value,bedrock depth and local soil conditions will make a contribution to the design of earthquake-safe building for Jakarta city in the future.

The Attenuation Law of Horizontal Peak Acceleration on the Rock Site in Yunnan Area

In this paper,we select 131 accelerograms observed in the Yunnan area and cite 114 accelerograms from western America.By statistical regression analysis,we get two separate acceleration attenuation formulations based on the data of Yunnan and those of both Yunnan and western America.By analyzing and comparing the above results with the result deprived from intensity-earthquake ground motion,this paper proposes the formula below,which may show the acceleration attenuation feature of the Yunnan area:Ap=1291.07e0.5275Ms(R+15)-t.

Electron Acceleration in the Cone-shaped Extra-intense Stationary Laser Field

A technique of electron acceleration in the cone shaped stationary laser field is proposed. An electron acceleration in this laser is studied, which shows that there is no electron bunching but there exists electron capture in this laser field.

Time derivative of earthquake acceleration

Unlike acceleration, velocity, and displacement, the time derivative ofacceleration (TDoA) of ground motion has not been extensively studied. In this paper, the basiccharacteristics of TDoA are evaluated based on records from the 1999 Chi-Chi, earthquake (Mw 7.6)and one of its aftershocks (Mw 6.2). It is found that the maximum TDoA at a free-field station wasover 31,200 cm/s3 (31.8 g/s); and the duration of 'strong' TDoA, between the first and the last timepoints exceeding 2,000 cm/s3 (2 g/s), was almost one minute near the epicenter area. Since groundTDoA sensors are not commonly available, the time series are calculated by direct numericaldifferentiation of acceleration time series. Relative error analysis shows that the error isnon-transitive and total error is within 4%. The density function of TDoA amplitude, frequencycontent and spatial distribution of peak ground jerk (PGJ) are evaluated. The study also includesexamination of some TDoA responses from a seven-story building and comparison of ground TDoA withthe limit TDoA used in the transportation industry for ride comfort. Some potential impacts of TDoAon humans have also been reviewed.

On the realization of seismic microzonation of Almaty (Kazakhstan) in ground accelerations based on the “continual” approach

Seismic microzonation for Almaty city for the first time use probabilistic approach and hazard is expressed in terms of not only macroseismic intensity,but also Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA).To account for the effects of local soil conditions,the continual approach proposed by A.S.Aleshin[1,2]was used,in which soil coefficients are a function of the continuously changing seismic rigidity.Soil coefficients were calculated using the new data of geological and geophysical surveys and findings of previous geotechnical studies.The used approach made it possible to avoid using soil categories and a jump change in characteristics of soil conditions and seismic impact.The developed seismic microzonation maps are prepared for further introduction into the normative documents of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Seismic force demands on acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components:a state-of-the-art review

Nonstructural components(NSCs)are parts,elements,and subsystems that are not part of the primary loadbearing system of building structures but are subject to seismic loading.Damage to NSCs may disrupt the functionality of buildings and result in significant economic losses,injuries,and casualties.In past decades,extensive studies have been conducted on the seismic performance and seismic design methods of NSCs.As the input for the seismic design of NSCs,floor response spectra(FRS)have attracted the attention of researchers worldwide.This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of FRS.Different methods for generating FRS are summarized and compared with those in current seismic design codes.A detailed review of the parameters influencing the FRS is presented.These parameters include the characteristics of ground motion excitation,supporting building and NSCs.The floor acceleration response and the FRS obtained from experimental studies and field observations during earthquakes are also discussed.Three RC frames are used in a case study to compare the peak floor acceleration(PFA)and FRS calculated from time history analyses(THA)with that generated using current seismic design codes and different methods in the literature.Major knowledge gaps are identified,including uncertainties associated with developing FRS,FRS generation methods for different types of buildings,the need for comprehensive studies on absolute acceleration,relative velocity,and relative displacement FRS,and the calibration of FRS by field observations during earthquakes.

Effect of seismic super-shear rupture on the directivity of ground motion acceleration

The effect of seismic super-shear rupture on the directivity of ground motions using simulated accelerations of a vertical strike-slip fault model is the topic of this study. The discrete wave number/finite element method was adopted to calculate the ground motion in the horizontal layered half space. An analysis of peak ground acceleration （PGA） indicates that similar to the sub-shear situation, directivity also exists in the super-shear situation. However, there are some differences as tbllows： （1） The PGA of the fault-normal component decreases with super-shear velocity, and the areas that were significantly affected by directivity in the PGA field changed from a cone-shaped region in the forward direction in a sub-shear situation to a limited near-fault region in a super-shear situation. （2） The PGA of the fault-parallel and vertical component is not as sensitive as the fault-normal component to the increasing super-shear velocity. （3） The PGA of the fault-normal component is not always greater than the fault-parallel component when the rupture velocity exceeds the shear wave velocity.

MAXIMUM ENTROPY DECONVOLUTION OF XPS PEAK

Necessity of XPS spectrum deconvolution, disadvantages of the traditional Fast Fourier Transform decon-volution method (FFT) , principle, method and advantages of Maximum Entropy Deconvolution Method (MEM) are de-scribed. Criteria for determing the number of data points sam-pled in MEM are the main point disccussed in the paper,some XPS deconvolution applications of our MEM software show that the MEM makes XPS deconvolution much easier than the traditional FFT method.

Proton acceleration from picosecond-laser interaction with a hydrocarbon target

As an intense picosecond laser pulse irradiates a hydrocarbon target,the protons therein can be accelerated by the radiation pressure as well as the sheath field behind the target.We investigate the effect of the laser and hydrocarbon target parameters on proton acceleration with two/threedimensional particle-in-cell simulations.It is found that the resulting two-ion species plasma can generate a multiple peaked charge-separation field that accelerates the protons.In particular,a smaller carbon-to-hydrogen ratio,as well as the thinner and/or lower density of the target,leads to a larger sheath field and thus proton beams with a larger cutoff energy and smoother energy spectrum.These results may be useful in achieving high-flux quasi-monoenergetic proton beams by properly designing the hydrocarbon target.

Bits, Mass and Acceleration Issues in BSC

The goal of the present paper is to expand already published works in the frame of＂Banded speed cosmology＂ （BSC）. In particular this paper gives validated values for physical quantities not so far investigated in previous publications, i.e., the number of individual physical entity in the universe, as well as the maximum value for acceleration. Validates values mean identical quantities from a numerical point of view obtained with different theoretical procedures, additionally compared with data based on NASA observations with Planck probe.

Life prediction for vacuum fluorescent display using maximum likelihood estimation

In order to obtain the life information of the vacuum fluorescent display （VFD） in a short time, a model of constant stress accelerated life tests （CSALT） is established with its filament temperature increased, and four constant stress tests are conducted. The Weibull function is applied to describe the life distribution of the VFD, and the maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） and its iterative flow chart are used to calculate the shape parameters and the scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation is determined by the least square method, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is performed to verify whether the VFD life meets the Weibull distribution or not, and selfdeveloped software is employed to predict the average life and the reliable life. Statistical data analysis results demonstrate that the test plans are feasible and versatile, that the VFD life follows the Weibull distribution, and that the VFD accelerated model satisfies the linear Arrhenius equation. The proposed method and the estimated life information of the VFD can provide some significant guideline to its manufacturers and customers.