Modelling Key Population Attrition in the HIV and AIDS Programme in Kenya Using Random Survival Forests with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique-Nominal Continuous

HIV and AIDS has continued to be a major public health concern, and hence one of the epidemics that the world resolved to end by 2030 as highlighted in sustainable development goals (SDGs). A colossal amount of effort has been taken to reduce new HIV infections, but there are still a significant number of new infections reported. HIV prevalence is more skewed towards the key population who include female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID). The study design was retrospective and focused on key population enrolled in a comprehensive HIV and AIDS programme by the Kenya Red Cross Society from July 2019 to June 2021. Individuals who were either lost to follow up, defaulted (dropped out, transferred out, or relocated) or died were classified as attrition;while those who were active and alive by the end of the study were classified as retention. The study used density analysis to determine the spatial differences of key population attrition in the 19 targeted counties, and used Kilifi county as an example to map attrition cases in smaller administrative areas (sub-county level). The study used synthetic minority oversampling technique-nominal continuous (SMOTE-NC) to balance the datasets since the cases of attrition were much less than retention. The random survival forests model was then fitted to the balanced dataset. The model correctly identified attrition cases using the predicted ensemble mortality and their survival time using the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival function. The predictive performance of the model was strong and way better than random chance with concordance indices greater than 0.75.

The trend of low fertility and aging in ethnic minority areas and the policy responses in China:An analysis based on data from the latest three censuses

Low fertility and population aging are important factors affecting economic and social development.From 2000 to 2020,the development of low fertility in ethnic minority areas shows three trends of accelerated declining,slow declining and first falling and then rising,which are the results of the balance between the inhibiting effect of controlling birth policy and the rapidly rising birth cost,and the promoting effect of encouraging birth policy on the fertility desire of social members.The development of aging in ethnic minority areas shows two trends of acceleration and deceleration,which are the results of the balance between the promoting effect of controlling birth policy,the outflow of young and middle-aged labor force and the rise of life expectancy,and the inhibiting effect of the encouraging birth policy,the restraint of talent return and talent introduction.Combined with the development degree of low fertility and aging,we can accurately classify and implement policies for different ethnic minority areas.The areas with serious low fertility and population aging problems need economic policies to change the population age structure as soon as possible.The areas with slight low fertility and population aging problems should carry out ideological policies in priority to maintain the benign structure of population age.

Minority population and sustainable development in mountain regions a case study of the Tibetan inhabited region in Sichuan, China

China boasts 56 nationalities who are mostly inhabited in the sparsely populated mountain regions in West China. Like many other places in the Han nationality distributed regions, minority nationality inhabited regions are also facing the challenge of sustainable development in terms of both natural and human factors. Taking the Tibetan inhabited regions (TIR) in Sichuan Province as a case, this paper points out some major problems in the process of economic development in perspective of sustainability and leaves some hints for development strategies. While natural conditions such as geological instability are playing a major role to the environmental degradation, human activities and improper use of resources might constitute an important agent in the environmental deterioration. In order to promote local economic development and improve people’s living standard, sustainable planning is expected to be made and people’s awareness of sustainability should be strengthened.

Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on the Treatment Outcomes of Chemotherapy in Women with Breast Cancer——A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

There are few population-based data in investigating the impact of diabetes on chemotherapy adverse effects and treatment outcomes of non-metastatic breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether diabetes affects the patterns of use in chemotherapy, toxic effects of chemotherapy, and treatment outcomes for non-metastatic breast cancer in Taiwan. The study results can provide physicians for making a decision whether or not to use chemotherapy based on the individual patients＇ condition.

Migration routes,population status and important sites used by the globally threatened Black-faced Spoonbill(Platalea minor):a synthesis of surveys and tracking studies

Background:The Black-faced Spoonbill(Platalea minor)is a globally threatened species,nesting mainly in western Korea with smaller numbers breeding in Liaoning Province,China,and Far East Russia.Recent winter field surveys to estimate the species'population size were almost totally conducted in coastal areas,but tracking studies showed that some individuals now winter inland.To ensure its long-term survival,we need a more comprehensive assessment of the current distribution and abundance of the species.Methods:We combined the most recent count data and satellite tracking information to update existing informa-tion about the population abundance and distribution of the Black-faced Spoonbill at all stages of its annual life cycle,and how these have changed during 2004-2020.Results:Black-faced Spoonbills mainly breed on the west coast of the Korean peninsula,while immature birds show a wider summer distribution throughout Yellow Sea coastal areas,when a few remain on wintering sites in the south.Combined tracking results and mid-winter counts confirmed known wintering sites on the east and south coasts of China,but showed that the species also winters on wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain and in Southeast Asia.During 2004-2020,counts of wintering birds in coastal habitats increased from 1198 to 4864,with numbers wintering on the island of Taiwan contributing most to the overall increase.Latest counts found 5222 in 2021.We also identify key wintering and stopover sites as well as their current conservation status.Conclusions:This study revised the known summering and wintering ranges of the Black-faced Spoonbill and assessed the conservation status of key sites based on a combination of field survey and satellite tracking data.We recommend prioritisation of further field research to identify and survey inland wintering areas in the Yangtze River floodplain and summering areas of immature birds.More tracking of adult individuals and birds during spring migration is necessary to fill these information gaps.We also suggest establishing a Black-faced Spoonbill monitoring platform to store,share and show real-time distribution range and population abundance data.

The relationship between acceptance of illness and quality of life among men who have sex with men living with human immunodeficiency virus:A cross-sectional study

Objectives To explore the relationship between acceptance of illness and quality of life(QOL),and factors associated with acceptance of illness among men who have sex with men(MSM)living with human immunodeficiency virus(HIV).Methods Three hundred and one MSM were recruited from an HIV clinic between August and December 2018.The battery of measurements consisted of the Acceptance of Illness Scale,World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire for HIV brief version,HIV Cognitive Appraisal Scale and a self-designed questionnaire used to collect general information.Pearson correlation test was used to examine the relationship between acceptance of illness and QOL.Univariate and multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses were used to examine whether the general data(demographic and HIV-related clinical data)and HIV cognitive appraisal were associated with acceptance of illness levels.Results Descriptive analysis showed the acceptance level among MSM living with HIV was moderate(Mean=26.29,SD=5.28).Those with a better acceptance of illness had a better QOL(r=0.69,P<0.01).In the multivariate ordinal logistic regression model,education level,threat appraisals(OR:1.09;95%CI[1.06–1.13]),and controllability appraisals(OR:0.82;95%CI[0.71–0.94])were significantly associated with acceptance of illness.Conclusions Results showed acceptance level was moderate and had a positive correlation with QOL.High level of education,low threat appraisals and high controllability appraisals were related to high illness acceptance.This finding highlights the importance of focusing on HIV-infected MSM with low education and on their perceptions of threat and controllability about HIV-related issues when designing interventions to promote illness acceptance in this vulnerable population.

Facing the 2013 Gold Rush: A Population Viability Analysis for the Endangered White-Lipped Peccary (<i>Tayassu pecari</i>) in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica

The white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) is facing range-wide declines throughout the Neotropics. It has been eliminated from about 89% of its historical range in Costa Rica. Corcovado National Park, in the Osa Peninsula of Costa Rica, is the last remaining stronghold for the white-lipped peccary in the country. In 2013, the Park experienced a sudden gold rush that brought with it a wave of 250 miners and vigorous hunting pressures on the population. Given that the species is endangered and is susceptible to hunting due to its herding behavior and tendency to cohere and attack when threatened rather than flee, it is important to assess its probability of extinction under various hunting scenarios. Incorporating data from studies on the life history of the species throughout its range in the Neotropics and in Corcovado, I used the population viability analysis software VORTEX to simulate the population trajectories and probabilities of extinction of the species under current hunting pressures and under various management scenarios. The results of this study revealed that under the 2013 scenario where 250 miners were present in the Park, the population of white-lipped peccaries has a about a 40% chance of extinction within five years and about a 99% chance of extinction within 10 years. Moreover, there is an “extinction threshold” for the population between the presence of 100 and 150 miners hunting in the Park. At this threshold, the population growth rate, r, drops from a positive growth rate (r = 0.09, SD = 0.08) to a negative one (r = -0.07, SD = 0.29). I suggest that anti-mining and anti-poaching laws be enforced immediately, and that the number of miners be reduced to 100 at a minimum, if not completely, in order to ensure that the population of white-lipped peccaries becomes viable and evades a local extinction.

The Unreasonableness of Accommodation： A Strong Defence of Minority Nations＇ Right to Sovereignty

Citizens of liberal democracies hold that their theory of governance is the most just, the most consistent with freedom, and the most likely to promote human flourishing. Yet, Canada, one of the world＇s most liberal and progressive democracies, has consistently been unable to come to terms with the minority nations in its midst. Why would national minorities resist joining fully in a just liberal democratic state？ And in the face of this refusal, what sort of relationship should the majority establish with these national minorities？ I argue that their resistance stems from an axiom of mainstream liberalism, ＂the civic unity assumption,＂ which holds that, ideally, all citizens endorse a single, unified state. While seemingly innocuous, this assumption extinguishes First Nations and Qurbrcois＇ claims to sovereignty. I conclude that this assumption--that majority and minority nationals must all work within the boundaries of a single constitutional structure--is ultimately an assimilative one, demanding that minority nationals merge their political community into the civic project of the majority. Drawing from John Rawls＇ The Law of Peoples, I argue that minority nations are best characterized as ＂peoples＂--complete societies with their own unique moral, cultural, and political traditions. If we accept this claim, we will come to see the multinational state differently： not as a political project uniting all citizens, but as a pact between nations; equal sovereign peoples coming together in a spirit of reciprocity to work out fair terms of social and political cooperation.

Education and Employment （2005-2009） A Comparative Analysis Between the Spanish and Foreign Working Population

Spain became a net receiver country of a high number of foreigners entering the labour market in the first decade of the 21 st century. The ensuing economic crisis, beginning in 2007, led to the destruction of a large number of companies and jobs. The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between educational level, employment and economic activity, in the Spanish and foreign working population in the Spanish labour market and the impact that the economic crisis is having on employment and self-employment. The hypotheses considered have been as followed--HI： The economic crisis mainly affects the less educated working population, both Spanish and foreign; H2： Self-employment is characterized by being an initiative of a working population with low educational levels for both population groups （Spanish and foreign）; H3： Employment is related to the productive economic structure. Micro-data from the Labour Force Survey 2009 （EPA in Spanish） has been used, compiled by Spains National Statistics Office （INE in Spanish）, and it has been applied Multiple Correspondence Analysis （MCA） to detect possible associations among the study variables （nationality, level of education, salaried employment, self-employment and economic activity）. The results show significant differences between both groups： Spanish and foreign working population. The study also shows how the crisis affects employment, and the important role played by the educational level of the working population, especially foreigners employed in certain economic activities.

Alzheimer’s Disease among American Minority Populations: An Eco­logical Exploratory Study

A significant public health concern with regards to increasing rates of Alzheimer’s is that it disproportionately affects minority groups in the United States.The present ecological exploratory study uses secondary aggregate data from the fifty United States in the year of 2019.The pur­pose of this study was to address the disparities in Alzheimer’s in minori­ty populations in the US and explore associated factors.The“minority”populations considered were African American and Hispanic populations,and the“majority”population was referred to as“white”.The data were extracted from the United States Census Bureau,the CDC National Cen­ter for Health Statistics,and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Sys­tem(BRFSS)Dataset.The prevalence rates of Alzheimer’s disease are greatest in both older Hispanic(12.2%)and African Americans(13.8%),compared to older whites(10.3%)in the investigated time period.Our results showed that being over 65 years old(p=.009),with a below-av­erage($62,843)median household income(p=.024),history of stroke(p=.029),and being a part of the Hispanic population(p=.036),were significantly associated with Alzheimer’s mortality rates in the United States.By identifying disparities in access to Alzheimer’s healthcare and at-risk communities,more comprehensive intervention strategies can be developed to promote change and advocate for more Alzheimer’s educa­tion and resource allocation for minority populations.

Reducing psychiatric illness in the perinatal period:A review and commentary

This brief overview highlights the global crisis of perinatal psychiatric illness(PPI).PPI is a major contributor to many adverse pregnancy,childbirth,and childhood development outcomes.It contributes to billions of dollars in spending worldwide each year and has a significant impact on the individual,their family,and their community.It is also highly preventable.Current recommendations for intervention and management of PPI are limited and vary considerably from country to country.Furthermore,there are several significant challenges associated with implementation of these recommendations.These challenges are magnified in number and consequence among women of color and/or minority populations,who experience persistent and negative health disparities during pregnancy and the postpartum period.This paper aims to provide a broad overview of the current state of recommendations and implementation challenges for PPI and layout a framework for overcoming these challenges.An equityinformed model of care that provides universal intervention for pregnant women may be one solution to address the preventable consequences of PPI on child and maternal health.Uniquely,this model emphasizes the importance of managing and eliminating known barriers to traditional health care models.Culturally and contextually specific challenges must be overcome to fully realize the impact of improved management of PPI.

“全民一体”:一个述说中华民族的原创概念

民族复兴被确立为国家发展目标,中华民族得到了前所未有的凸显,也进一步突出了中华民族与国家之间的内在联系。为了体现中华民族的国家属性,形成对中华民族的完整述说,笔者在中华民族“多元一体”概念的基础上,提出了中华民族“全民一体”概念,并通过原创的“人口国民化”“国民整体化”等概念来丰富其内涵。因此,就能将从中华民族与现代国家关系角度提出的“全民一体”概念,与从国内民族关系角度提出的“多元一体”概念结合起来,在既揭示中华民族与世界上其他现代民族的共同性,又揭示中华民族特殊性的基础上,对中华民族进行完整、有效的述说。

依嵌而融:东部沿海城市各民族交往交流交融的多维互嵌要素研究

东部沿海城市已成为各民族交往交流交融和全方位相互嵌入的重要场域。人口要素、空间互嵌、经济互嵌和文化互嵌构成了民族交往交流交融的社会基础、场域环境、物质条件和精神依归。以天津市为例,在人口基础要素方面,民族成份齐全多元,少数民族流动人口规模增长较快等,使得各民族社会交往的人口资源增量较为丰富。在空间互嵌环境方面,民族空间交往的场域环境存具区际分布结构、民族聚居结构和社区互嵌结构的差异性。在经济互嵌条件方面,民族就业领域存在集中化现象,各民族围绕职业领域和就业分布进行民族生产交往。在文化互嵌依归方面,通过各民族文化互嵌共生,强化中华文化认同与国家认同教育,增进了民族精神交往。要坚持“并重”思维,理性看待民族就业分布集中化现象,在把握客观规律的基础上建设民族互嵌式社区,顺势而为地推动东部沿海城市各民族广泛交往、全面交流和深度交融。

湖南省人口变化特征分析与国土空间规划应对策略研究

人口结构变化正深刻影响着经济、社会、资源的发展方式,研究人口结构变化特征,把握人口发展规律与趋势,提出国土空间规划应对策略,对促进国土空间的高质量发展具有重要作用。文章基于人口普查数据,分析了湖南省近十年人口变化特征,提出了面向人口变化的国土空间规划应对策略。结果表明:(1)在规划响应机制方面,人口规模变化驱动规划需求、人口结构变化影响设施配置、人口城乡分布影响城乡格局、人口流动影响区域平衡。(2)在人口变化特征方面,湖南省人口规模呈负增长趋势,人口结构少子化老龄化趋势明显,城镇人口向主要的交通干道与经济通道集聚,人口流出规模与比例呈扩大趋势。(3)针对人口变化特征,国土空间规划应对策略包括分级分类引导、优化公共服务设施供给、强化城乡融合动能和提高产业发展效能。

中国城市人口老龄化的时空演变与影响因素——基于全国人口普查数据的分析

基于第五、六、七次全国人口普查分城市数据,采用莫兰指数、Dagum基尼系数及分解,以及空间计量回归模型,对市域尺度下我国人口老龄化的时空演变与影响因素进行分析。结果表明:我国市域人口老龄化整体呈加速加深趋势,但不同区域加深速度存在差异;我国城市人口老龄化表现出相似类型集聚的空间分布特征,低-低型集聚城市主要位于青藏高原及周边地区以及广东省,而除了成渝地区和江苏省部分城市外,其他大部分高-高型集聚城市在考察期内发生了跃迁;城市人口老龄化的整体差异在考察期内有所扩大,区域内差异增减变化不一,而区域间差异多有明显扩张,人口老龄化整体差异及其变化主要源于区域间差异;2010年我国城市的人口老龄化主要受老年人口惯性和人口流迁的影响,2020年除老年人口惯性和人口流迁的影响进一步强化外,人口密度、前期人口生育率和育龄妇女占比等因素也成为我国人口老龄化空间分异的重要原因。

城市群建设视域下各民族人口流动融居的多维探析——基于重庆主城都市区的调查

现代化城市群建设引领区域高水平协同共建,对周边各族群众产生典型的“磁吸效应”。城市中各民族流动人口数量上升既为城市经济社会发展作出贡献,也为各民族交往交流交融创造现实空间。文章在成渝地区双城经济圈建设背景下,以重庆主城都市区为例,依据三种社区生活模式,对嵌入式社区环境、渐进式文化交流以及互助式社团生活展开深入探讨。引导城市中各族群众向社会主义现代化迈进,不断提升城市民族工作现代化水平,实现各民族共建共治共享,在人口流动融居中推动各民族交往交流交融,促进各民族团结统一、守望相助、手足情深,不断夯实铸牢中华民族共同体意识的实践基础。

回族及维吾尔族圆头精子症患者的基因诊断、精子超微结构观察和辅助生殖结局分析

目的探讨2例少数民族(P1回族、P2维吾尔族)圆头精子症患者的临床表型、精子特点、遗传学病因以及辅助生殖结局。方法分析2例少数民族圆头精子症患者的临床资料和各种精液检查参数,观察精子超微结构,并利用全外显子检测技术和qPCR检测分析患者的遗传学病因,采用卵胞质内单精子注射联合卵母细胞激活技术(ICSI+AOA)进行辅助生殖治疗,并观察其助孕结局。结果2例患者均存在DPY19L2基因109681 bp纯合缺失,其中P2患者的DPY19L2基因缺失来源于近亲结婚的父母。P1患者精子活力低下,精子DNA碎片率高,精子形态为100%圆头精子,电镜下发现精子顶体缺失,同时存在质膜、线粒体和微管等超微结构缺陷;P2患者精子活力及精子DNA碎片率均正常,精子形态为100%圆头精子,电镜下观察发现精子主要缺陷为头部小而圆伴随顶体缺失,质膜、线粒体和微管等细胞器结构损伤与超微结构缺陷少见。2例患者夫妇均接受ICSI+AOA助孕,ICSI受精率P1患者夫妇为62.5%,P2患者夫妇为75%,均成功获得临床妊娠。结论DPY19L2基因异常在不同民族背景的圆头精子症患者中都是主要的致病遗传学原因。圆头精子可同时存在质膜、线粒体和微管等细胞器结构损伤与超微结构缺陷。ICSI+AOA是圆头精子症患者的有效辅助生殖治疗。

当代中国民族叙事的演变及重塑

中华人民共和国成立后,在面对和应对复杂且影响突出的民族事象的过程中,一套完整的民族叙事逐渐建立起来,并定格于当代中国历史之中。新中国成立后的相当长时间里,民族叙事围绕少数民族进行;中华民族伟大复兴被确立为国家发展目标后,中华民族在民族叙事中的地位日渐突出,一个以中华民族为中心的叙事在多种因素推动下逐步构建起来。如此,一种具有70多年演进历史的民族叙事,既是关于民族事象的阐释体系,也是今天了解和把握民族认知和对应方式的重要对象。今天,在国家发展的形势和任务发生根本变化之际,根据形势的变化思考民族叙事的重塑问题,结合对民族叙事历史经验的反思,塑造一个将中华民族与国内各个民族相结合的复合型叙事,从而对当代中国的民族事象进行全面的阐释,形成一个完整的认知体系就势在必行。

国家中心城市人口协同发展模式及效能类型探究——基于七次全国人口普查数据的分析

基于协同理论的分析框架,在七次全国人口普查数据的基础上,采用改进引力模型、社会网络分析方法,从关系协同、地位协同和圈层协同的视角对城市群人口协同发展与国家中心城市效能类型的关系进行研究,发现竞合力、主导力和聚合力共同构成城市群人口高效协同的三维支撑体系。非中心城市的竞合力是城市群提升人口潜力的关键。尽管国家中心城市在城市群人口系统从旧结构向新结构演化的过程中发挥着决定性作用,但京津冀、长三角、珠三角城市群的其他城市对国家中心城市的人口引力作用相对更强,非中心城市对城市群活力的影响值得重视。中心城市的主导力是城市群实现人口跃迁的关键。国家中心城市在城市群发展过程中的集聚作用突出且呈现持续增强态势,在从弱主导走向强主导的演化过程中,国家中心城市经济实力是其重要支撑。城市网络的聚合力是城市群优化人口格局的关键。在与城市群其他城市之间的圈层关系中,国家中心城市保持较高的子群内部密度、形成稳定的凝聚态势是城市群辐射能力的重要体现。基于“三力”研究,建议“任务面向型”城市积极引导产业和人口有序分流、避免人口过度集中,提升城市群人口发展的协同效能;“成长面向型”城市加快培育非中心城市的发展能力,提升城市群整体的伺服效能;“关系面向型”城市加强与其他中心城市之间的分工协作,改善城市群整体的自组织机制效能。

少数民族大学生中华民族共同体意识培育路径探析

新的历史时代,以民族团结为主题的各民族共同发展已经成为中国式现代化建设的重要内容。加强少数民族大学生中华民族共同体意识建设,就要以辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义的马克思主义科学理论为指导思想,以习近平总书记关于加强和改进民族工作重要思想的立场、观点和方法为培育抓手,发挥各方合力,共同促进少数民族大学生的中华民族共同体意识教育。具体应着力抓好以下几方面的工作:一要加大少数民族大学生马克思主义民族团结理论教育;二要促进少数民族大学生对习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想关于民族论述的正确理解;三要加强对少数民族大学生社会主义核心价值体系的培育;四要落实“石榴红”项目建设,培养少数民族大学生干部队伍。最终,使少数民族学生真正成为拥护中国共产党领导、认同社会主义核心价值观的有为之士。