Analysis and Study on Spatial Gravity Center of PM_(2.5) and Population Scale

With the rapid development of urbanization construction in China,population and industries are rapidly gathering in cities,bringing about economic development and also causing a large number of environmental problems,among which PM_(2.5) is the most concerned.In this paper,a spatial gravity center model was used to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PM_(2.5) and population scale in China from 1999 to 2016.Conclusions were as below:(1)there were significant regional differences in PM_(2.5) pollution from 1999 to 2016,characterized by a spatial distribution of"high in the north and low in the south,and high in the inland and low in the coastal areas".(2)Nationwide,there was a significant spatial mismatch between the gravity center of PM_(2.5) pollution and the gravity center of population scale,with the two centers showing a trend of reverse dislocation development.

Uncertainty analysis of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia test

The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of liquid dynamic recommended by International Towing Tank Conference （ ITTC）, the results were analyzed, bias limits and precision limits were calculated and total uncertainty was estimated. The total uncertainty of six tests on ship model vertical center of gravity is is 0. 16% of the mean value, and the total uncertainty of six tests on ship model transverse moment of inertia is 5.66% of the mean value. The test results show that the total uncertainty of both the multiple tests and the single test is from the precision limits of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia tests. Thus, the improved measurement system stability can enormously decrease the total uncertainty of multiple tests and the single test.

Analysis of Land Use Change and Driving Factors in Mojiang County Based on PLUS Model

[Objectives]To explore the characteristics of land use change and its main influencing factors in Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,and try to provide a scientific reference for alleviating the contradiction between man and land in Mojiang County and realizing the sustainable development of regional land resources.[Methods]Based on the land cover data and socio-economic data of Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,the dynamic degree of land use,land use transfer matrix and center-of-gravity transfer model were calculated,and the temporal and spatial change characteristics and driving factors of various types of land use were calculated by PLUS model.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the area and proportion of grassland,waters and construction land in Mojiang County showed an upward trend,while the area and proportion of cultivated land and forest land showed a downward trend.Among them,cultivated land was mainly converted into forest land and grassland,and some were converted into waters and construction land;forest land was mainly converted into cultivated land and grassland,and part of it was converted into waters and construction land.From 2000 to 2020,the center-of-gravity of cultivated land,forest land and construction land in Mojiang County moved to the southeast of the county,and the moving rates were 0.66,1.97 and 10.58 km/yr,respectively;the center-of-gravity of grassland and waters moved to the southwest of the county,and the moving rates were 1.30 and 20.20 km/yr,respectively.Distance from road,distance from government and distance from waters are the main driving forces affecting land use change in Mojiang County;the forecast shows that in 2040,the area of grassland and forest land in Mojiang County will continue to decrease,the area of cultivated land will turn to rise,and the area of waters and construction land will continue to rise.[Conclusions]Reasonable planning and optimizing the allocation of cultivated land and forest land structure and strict control of the expansion scale of construction land are necessary measures to ensure the coordinated development of regional land rational use and economic construction.

Evolvement Characteristics of Population and Economic Gravity Centers in Tarim River Basin,Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang,China

Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.

Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015

The vegetation ecosystem of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China,considered to be the′′natural laboratory′′of climate change in the world,has undergone profound changes under the stress of global change.Herein,we analyzed and discussed the spatial-temporal change patterns and the driving mechanisms of net primary productivity(NPP)in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015 based on the gravity center and correlation coefficient models.Subsequently,we quantitatively distinguished the relative effects of climate change(such as precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration)and human activities(such as grazing and ecological construction)on the NPP changes using scenario analysis and Miami model based on the MOD17A3 and meteorological data.The average annual NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest during 2000–2015.With respect to the inter-annual changes,the average annual NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2015,with a steep increase observed in 2005 and a high fluctuation observed from 2005 to 2015.In the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,the regions with the increase in NPP(change rate higher than 10%)were mainly concentrated in the Three-River Source Region,the northern Hengduan Mountains,the middle and lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River,and the eastern parts of the North Tibet Plateau,whereas the regions with the decrease in NPP(change rate lower than–10%)were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Ali Plateau.The gravity center of NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has moved southwestward during 2000–2015,indicating that the increment and growth rate of NPP in the southwestern part is greater than those of NPP in the northeastern part.Further,a significant correlation was observed between NPP and climate factors in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.The regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation were mainly located in the central and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,and the regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and temperature were mainly located in the southern and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.Furthermore,the relative effects of climate change and human activities on the NPP changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau exhibited significant spatial differences in three types of zones,i.e.,the climate change-dominant zone,the human activity-dominant zone,and the climate change and human activity interaction zone.These research results can provide theoretical and methodological supports to reveal the driving mechanisms of the regional ecosystems to the global change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

Effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and temperature in the Songnen Plain,China

Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the contribution of LUCC to the changes of climatic factors, such as precipitation & temperature(P&T), is lacking. In this study, we combined statistical methods and the gravity center model simulation to quantify the effects of long-term LUCC on P&T in the Songnen Plain(SNP) of Northeast China from 1980–2018. The results showed the spatiotemporal variability of LUCC. For example, paddy field had the largest increase(15 166.43 km2) in the SNP, followed by dry land, while wetland had the largest decrease(19 977.13 km;) due to the excessive agricultural utilization and development. Annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of –9.89 mm per decade, and the warming trends were statistically significant with an increasing rate of 0.256°C per decade in this region since 1980. The model simulation revealed that paddy field, forestland, and wetland had positive effects on precipitation, which caused their gravity centers to migrate towards the same direction accompanied by the center of precipitation gravity, while different responses were seen for building land, dry land and unused land. These results indicated that forestland had the largest influence on the increase of precipitation compared with the other land use types.The responses in promoting the temperature increase differed significantly, being the highest in building land, and the lowest in forestland. In general, the analysis of regional-scale LUCC showed a significant reduction of wetland, and the increases in building land and cropland contributed to a continuous drying and rapid warming in the SNP.

A new monitoring index for ecological vulnerability and its application in the Yellow River Basin,China from 2000 to 2022

The ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin has become more fragile under the combined action of natural and manmade activities.However,the change mechanisms of ecological vulnerability in different sub-regions and periods vary,and the reasons for this variability are yet to be explained.Thus,in this study,we proposed a new remote sensing ecological vulnerability index by considering moisture,heat,greenness,dryness,land degradation,and social economy indicators and then analyzed and disclosed the spatial and temporal change patterns of ecological vulnerability of the Yellow River Basin,China from 2000 to 2022 and its driving mechanisms.The results showed that the newly proposed remote sensing ecological vulnerability index had a high accuracy,at 86.36%,which indicated a higher applicability in the Yellow River Basin.From 2000 to 2022,the average remote sensing ecological vulnerability index of the Yellow River Basin was 1.03,denoting moderate vulnerability level.The intensive vulnerability area was the most widely distributed,which was mostly located in the northern part of Shaanxi Province and the eastern part of Shanxi Province.From 2000 to 2022,the ecological vulnerability in the Yellow showed an overall stable trend,while that of the central and eastern regions showed an obvious trend of improvement.The gravity center of ecological vulnerability migrated southwest,indicating that the aggravation of ecological vulnerability in the southwestern regions was more severe than in the northeastern regions of the basin.The dominant single factor of changes in ecological vulnerability shifted from normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)to temperature from 2000 to 2022,and the interaction factors shifted from temperature∩NDVI to temperature∩precipitation,which indicated that the global climate change exerted a more significant impact on regional ecosystems.The above results could provide decision support for the ecological protection and restoration of the Yellow River Basin.

Interprovincial migration in China,1985-2005:a gravity modeling approach

This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005.We have investigated six types of factors,namely,distance,population density,income,employment structure,house price,and migration stock.In addition,we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset,which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China.It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China,and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area.Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure.This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial ihfonnation and develop applicable models for migration processes.Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.

Landscape pattern change of a typical region in the Kubuqi Desert, Northwestern China

Spatial pattern analysis is the core component in landscape ecology research.We analyzed the landscape pattern and dynamic process of the Kubuqi Desert by using a typical region as a study area.This study area includes four towns;ShuLinZhao,WangAiZhao,BaiNiJing and JiGeSiTai.The area of cropland,fixed sand dune,woodland,residential area and wetland increased and centralized gradually,while the area of semi-fixed sand dune,drifting sand dune,meadow and washland decreased and dispersed gradually from 1987 to 2003.On the landscape level,the patch shape tended to be regular,and the landscape pattern tended to be simple,causing the fragmentation degree,heterogeneity and diversity of the landscape to decrease.Fixed sand dune.Semi-fixed sand dune,drifting sand dune,meadow and river flood plains were the five main export classes,and residential area,cropland and wetland were the three main import classes.The classes that had a relatively large total area and large average patch area had a smaller extent of gravity center migration,whereas the classes with small total area and small average patch area had a larger extent of gravity center migration;this is because the small patches are easily influenced by human activities or natural factors.In addition,the desertification area and desertification degree reduced gradually in the study area during the period from 1987 to 2003.

中国数字经济与文旅产业融合的协同关系及其影响因素

促进数字经济与文旅产业融合的协调适配是实现数字文旅高质量发展的关键路径,有效把握二者协同关系的时空演化特征及影响因素,对推动区域文旅产业转型升级、构建数字文旅产业发展新格局具有重要理论价值和现实意义。首先,在梳理两系统协同发展框架基础上构建综合评价体系;其次,运用协同关系测度模型、探索性空间数据分析刻画2011—2020年中国数字经济与文旅产业融合协同关系的时空演进特征;最后,采用时空地理加权回归方法识别其影响因素。结果表明:1)时序演进上,中国数字经济与文旅产业融合协同指数保持上升态势,从2011年的极低协同(0.180)提升至2020年的低级协同(0.279)。2)空间分布上,呈稳定的“东-中-西”递减梯度结构,空间协同特征与空间集聚特征显著。3)各解释变量对数字经济与文旅产业融合协同关系具有正向效应,政府调控和人力资本高值区在研究期末呈现自东向西扩散态势,而城镇化水平、技术实力和互联网供给能力在文旅资源禀赋优势更大、发展空间更具潜力的中部和西部地区表现出更明显的推动作用。

下辽河平原区耕地非农化时空演变特征及驱动机制

探索耕地非农化的时空演变特征及其驱动机制是耕地保护的前提,分析下辽河平原区2000—2020年耕地非农化的时空演变特征及驱动机制,可以为该地区耕地保护政策的制定与防止耕地非农化提供理论依据。本文基于2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年5个时期的土地利用数据,以下辽河平原区为研究区域,结合社会经济数据,运用ArcGIS 10.2空间叠加分析,计算耕地非农化面积,采用重心迁移模型、核密度分析、地理探测器等统计学和地理信息系统的空间分析方法,揭示下辽河平原区耕地非农化特征及其演变趋势,并探讨其耕地非农化的驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)在时间上,下辽河平原区耕地非农化面积和非农化率呈现周期性波动,耕地非农化总面积为2201.52 km^(2),耕地非农化率为7.11%。2)在空间分布上,耕地非农化的重心主要从辽中区向东北方向迁移至于洪区,下辽河平原区耕地非农化东部地区高于西部地区,核密度最大值1657.3,主要在于洪区、浑南区、沈北新区、苏家屯区附近;耕地非农化的次集中区域为新民市和昌图县,其核密度最大值分别为1033.18和1018.49。3)在驱动因素上,耕地非农化驱动因素影响依次为农业机械总动力>户籍人口>城镇人口>固定资产投资>第三产业增加值>GDP>粮食产量>第二产业增加值,交互作用探测器表现为双因子增强或非线性增强关系。综合来看,耕地非农化是社会、经济因素综合作用的复杂结果。鉴于此,本文建议通过严格控制城市建设用地占用耕地的规模、挖掘农村居民点利用潜力、转变经济发展方式、推动农业产业结构调整等措施治理耕地非农化。

中国农村居民点重心迁移特征及其指示意义

运用重心模型和标准差椭圆法,研究2000—2018年中国农村居民点重心迁移轨迹及对农村居民点集约利用和耕地被占用空间格局的影响。结果表明,2000—2018年中国农村居民点重心向西北迁移17545.67 m,其中向西迁移8843.191 m,向北迁移15154.162 m。2000—2005年、2005—2010年、2010—2015年和2015—2018年4个阶段,中国农村居民点重心迁移沿着“西南-东南-西北-西北”的轨迹,迁移速度分别为894.326,854.994,1368.894和8108.936 m/a。2010年之前农村居民点重心主要向南迁移,移动速度较慢,2010年之后转向西北方向迁移,移动速度迅速上升。2000—2018年,中国农村居民点空间分布范围先缩小后扩张,其中2000—2015年分布范围缩小,2015年以后分布范围扩张,农村居民点在主趋势方向(南北)呈现集聚特征,在东西方向呈现离散特征。研究结果表明,中国北方农村居民点的利用较为粗放,尤其是华北、东北和华东地区,人均农村居民点面积及增长率较快,集约利用程度低,农村居民点净占用耕地在全国的占比也最高,成为耕地占用最严重的地区;中南和西南地区农村居民点的利用较为集约。研究结果可为理解农村居民点的演变动态以及指导农村居民点空间布局的调整提供科学依据。

我国青贮玉米生产的集聚演变及其作用机制——基于动态空间杜宾模型

为观测青贮玉米生产的动态变化,研究基于2001—2021年我国30个省面板数据,选用重心模型分析青贮玉米生产集聚区域变动。在此基础上,借助动态空间杜宾模型剖析要素投入、社会经济、政策支持对中国青贮玉米生产区域变动的影响。结果表明,我国青贮玉米存在空间聚集现象,即2001—2021年间我国青贮玉米生产量的莫兰指数总体上呈“先降再升再降再升”的发展态势。生产重心演变轨迹结果显示,我国青贮玉米生产区域重心呈现“先东北后西北、西南”的演变趋势。机制结果表明,粮食优势、财政扶持、务工收入增加是推进青贮玉米生产的主要驱动因素;生产基础设备、化肥施用、农业收益对本省份青贮玉米生产具有正向影响,但对相邻省份青贮玉米生产的影响不显著。

河南省耕地“非农化”时空演变特征分析

深入理解和掌握耕地“非农化”的时空演变特征及其原因对保护耕地并确保粮食安全具有重要意义。本文针对中国产粮第二大省河南,以县域为单位,基于河南省1980—2020年土地利用长时序空间数据,采用重心转移模型和空间自相关分析等方法,定量揭示全省158个县级评价单元1980—2020年来耕地“非农化”的空间分布特征、时空迁移路径和集聚特征,以期为河南省耕地资源的保护与可持续利用提供依据。结果表明:(1)河南省耕地资源东西分布差异大,集中连片耕地主要集中在东部,耕地总面积随时间推移呈波动减少。(2)耕地“非农化”等级时空差异较大,豫西地区耕地“非农化”较为缓和,中部和东部地区呈先快速上升后缓慢下降的态势。(3)河南省耕地“非农化”空间不均衡性增强,空间格局小幅波动,耕地“非农化”重心以先向东南和西南后向东北的路径迁移。(4)河南省耕地“非农化”空间分布格局在4个时期均呈现出集聚特性,空间集聚程度先增大后减小,高—高和低—低聚类主导格局变化。本研究揭示了1980—2020年河南省耕地“非农化”的时空演变格局,为政府管控耕地“非农化”现象、实现耕地资源的可持续发展提供参考和借鉴。

农村水环境政策与污染的时空迁移特征及关系

为了揭示农村水污染与政策治理的时空演化关系,在测算政策力度与污染强度的基础上,绘制两指标的重心迁移轨迹,并结合夏普利值分解法确定各省份所属的“政策-污染”类型,进一步采用格兰杰因果检验法深入剖析各类型下政策与污染的因果关系。结果表明:政策与污染的重心均位于我国东南部,但两者的迁移轨迹联动性较差,前者呈现“偏南-偏西-偏北-偏东”的迁移趋势,而后者整体向南迁移;从政策与污染的关系来看,“增长-降低”型省份的污染降低导致政策力度增长,且东、西部省份增长的动因有所不同;“降低-降低”型省份的污染降低会导致政策力度下降,但在具体污染维度上存在政策关注失衡现象;所有“污染增长”型省份在两指标上不存在格兰杰因果关系。建议在未来政策制定中考虑政策与污染结果的联动性,加强政策的精准性、协同性和前瞻性,这将有助于提升政策规制的效率和效果。

1980—2020年福建省耕地非农化的时空演变特征

[目的]以县域为单位对1980—2020年福建省耕地非农化时空演变特征进行系统研究,揭示福建省耕地非农化的空间分布、迁移规律和集聚特征,以期为福建省耕地资源保护与可持续利用提供依据。[方法]基于福建省1980,1990,2000,2010,2020年5期土地利用数据,运用重心模型、空间自相关等方法分析福建省耕地非农化时空演变特征。[结果]①福建省耕地资源主要呈带状分布于东南沿海,且耕地面积随时间推移逐年减少。②福建省耕地非农化空间分布地域差异性显著,耕地非农化程度不断加剧,由东南沿海地区逐步向全省范围扩散。耕地非农化高等级区域主要分布在东南沿海地区和西北地区,以耕地转为建设用地、林地和草地为主要类型。③福建省耕地非农化重心偏离于几何中心,其分布具有非均衡性。耕地非农化重心主要位于该省几何中心东南方向,沿先西南后东南再西北的路径转移。福建省东南部地区的耕地非农化程度仍高于西北部地区,耕地非农化空间格局的总体趋势由东南部地区向西北部地区迁移。④福建省耕地非农化呈空间正相关性,空间集聚程度加深。“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚的空间变化对福建省耕地非农化空间自相关关系的格局演变起主导作用,“高—高”集聚由东南部地区向西北部地区转移,“低—低”集聚数量减少。[结论]福建省耕地非农化程度不断加深,空间聚集度加强及耕地非农化重心逐渐向西北地区移动。为确保粮食安全,兼顾经济发展,应采取合理措施保护耕地,实现耕地资源的可持续发展。

1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化时空变化特征及驱动机制

[目的]通过分析滇中城市群30年耕地非农化的演变路径、时空变化特征及驱动机制,为滇中城市群耕地资源的保护及精准管理提供理论依据。[方法]基于滇中城市群土地利用数据和统计年鉴数据,运用重心迁移模型、变化轨迹模型、空间自相关分析、主成分分析等方法揭示1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化过程、空间分布特征及主要驱动因素。[结果](1)从时间上看,滇中城市群耕地非农化面积呈波动下降趋势,2000年前后由年均增加约6.88×10^(3)hm^(2)转变为年平均减少约2.66×10^(4)hm^(2),受政策、经济和城市化影响导致其变化最剧烈。从空间上看,耕地非农化集中分布于滇中城市群的中部、东部、东南部和东北部地区。(2)30年来,滇中城市群耕地非农化在空间分布上趋于均衡,区域间耕地非农化差异变小,空间格局趋于稳定。(3)滇中城市群耕地主要转出为林地和草地,少部分转化为建设用地,变化型耕地中有54.60%与草地相关,29.33%与林地相关,4.64%与建设用地相关,主要发生在滇中城市群的中部、北部、东南部和西北部的局部区域。(4)滇中城市群耕地非农化存在显著的空间聚集效应,以高—高聚集和低—低聚集为主,高—高聚集主要分布在中部、北部和东南部,低—低集聚主要分布在西北部、西部和西南部。(5)滇中城市群耕地非农化受社会经济和自然条件共同影响。社会经济中的农业人口、国有固定产投资和城市化率是耕地非农化最主要的驱动因素,影响系数分别为-0.18,0.11,0.10;而自然因素年平均降水量和年平均气温在耕地非农化空间分布和扩张过程起着关键性的作用,影响系数分别为0.17,-0.15。[结论]研究结果揭示30年来滇中城市群耕地非农化的时空变化特征、演变路径及驱动机制。对合理利用和保护耕地资源,保障云南省粮食安全具有重要作用,在一定程度上可为滇中城市群的耕地保护和耕地布局优化提供决策参考。

福州都市圈生态系统服务价值时空演变及生态-经济协调发展

量化分析区域生态系统服务价值(ESV)演变以及空间分异因素,研究生态-经济协调一致性发展特征,有助于推动城市群与都市圈生态功能提升。以福州都市圈为例,基于2001年、2010年、2020年遥感影像数据,采用优化生态系统服务价值评估模型、重心模型、变异系数、协调性指数和一致性指数,结合GIS空间可视化分析,测度福州都市圈生态系统服务价值演变并分析其与经济发展的时空协调演变特征,最后对福州都市圈的生态-经济协调发展战略提出建议。结果表明:①2001~2020年,福州都市圈整体生态系统服务价值先减后增;其中,福州、莆田先减后增,宁德四县(市、区)和南平三区(市)则持续增加;②第一产业占比、年平均气温和植被覆盖率对生态系统服务价值的空间分异解释力较高,在原有自然条件的限制下,福州都市圈生态系统服务价值的空间分异更易受人为因子的干扰而扩大;③福州、莆田、宁德四县(市、区)的生态系统服务重心具有不断远离经济重心的趋势,二者逐渐割裂;④福州都市圈生态经济协调发展冲突尚不明显,但生态系统服务价值增长速度落后于GDP增长速度的区域数量较多,经济发展正在承受越来越大的生态压力,2001~2020年间福州都市圈形成福州、莆田、宁德城区经济集聚与中部六县生态集聚并存的格局。

中国枣产区迁移及驱动力分析

枣是原产我国的特色经济林果,近20 a来,由于黄河中下游传统产区在成熟期遇雨裂果损失严重,产量和品质下降,我国枣栽培中心由传统产区向西北产区转移。随着“东枣西移”的不断推进,西北(陕甘宁新)已经成为我国枣产业主体,枣区转移也给我国枣产业发展带来新的机遇和诸多挑战。分析近20 a我国枣产量、栽培面积、土地产出率、生产集中度与产地集中度的变化特征,采用重心理论模型分析我国枣产区迁移演变规律,并运用面板数据分析我国枣产区变迁的主要驱动因素。结果表明,2001-2021年我国枣产地集中度系数呈上升趋势,2021年达到0.66。新疆枣区土地生产率、生产集中度系数、比较优势明显高于东部传统枣区。近20 a来,我国枣产量重心、栽培重心、土地生产率重心分别由东向西移动2257.37、1629.58和264.99 km,其重心移动轨迹向新疆、陕西、甘肃、宁夏枣产区等优生区和最佳优生区迁移,呈现明显的“东枣西移”趋势。成熟期降雨量、粮食供给水平、非农就业水平、农村居民纯收入等因素是驱动枣产区迁移的主要因素。该研究为我国枣产区优化区域布局、产业升级和高质量发展提供理论依据和指导。

基于土地利用的荆州市三生空间格局演化特征分析

分析三生空间格局演变过程及特征,对优化土地资源配置,促进区域协调发展具有重要意义。以荆州市为研究对象,基于2000-2020年土地利用数据,运用三生空间动态度、转移矩阵、重心迁移模型和景观格局指数等分析工具,对三生空间格局演化特征进行了探讨。结果表明:农业生产空间和水域生态空间构成了荆州市三生空间的主要类型;研究时段内,农业生产空间、其他生态空间面积有所减少,与此同时其他类型的空间均得到了一定的增长;三生空间的演变的主要特征表现为农业生态空间与水域生态空间之间的相互转化,以及农业生产空间向其他类型空间的转移;农村生活空间、林地生态空间、草地生态空间的重心迁移程度较小,其他类型三生空间的重心迁移较为显著;三生空间景观格局总体呈现出破碎化和复杂化的趋势,空间连通性逐渐减弱。城乡建设对农业空间的占用以及湿地保护修复工程的实施是影响荆州市三生空间格局演变的主要因素,建议加强耕地和湿地的保护工作,确保区域粮食安全和生态安全,促进经济社会与生态环境的协调发展。