Uncertainty analysis of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia test

The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of liquid dynamic recommended by International Towing Tank Conference （ ITTC）, the results were analyzed, bias limits and precision limits were calculated and total uncertainty was estimated. The total uncertainty of six tests on ship model vertical center of gravity is is 0. 16% of the mean value, and the total uncertainty of six tests on ship model transverse moment of inertia is 5.66% of the mean value. The test results show that the total uncertainty of both the multiple tests and the single test is from the precision limits of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia tests. Thus, the improved measurement system stability can enormously decrease the total uncertainty of multiple tests and the single test.

Time-varying gravity field model of Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the equivalent mass source model

High-precision time-varying gravity field is an effective way to study the internal mass movement and understanding the spatio-temporal evolution process of the geodynamic system.Compared to the satellite gravity measurement,the repeated terrestrial gravity observation can provide a more high-order signal related to the shallow crust and subsurface.However,the suitable and unified method for gravity model estimation is a key problem for further applications.In this study,we introduce the spherical hexahedron element to simulate the field source mass and forward model the change of gravity field located at the Sichuan-Yunnan region(99—104°E,23—29°N)in the four epochs from 2015 to 2017.Compared to the experimental results based on Slepian or spherical harmonics frequency domain method,this alternative approach is suitable for constructing the equivalent mass source model of regional-scale gravity data,by introducing the first-order smooth prior condition of gravity time-varying signal to suppress the high-frequency component of the signal.The results can provide a higher spatial resolution reference for regional gravity field modeling in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.

Evolvement Characteristics of Population and Economic Gravity Centers in Tarim River Basin,Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang,China

Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.

Comparative analysis of recent hydrological models and an attempt to generate new combined products for monitoring terrestrial water storage change

Hydrological models are crucial for characterizing large-scale water quantity variations and correcting GNSS reference station vertical displacements.We evaluated the robustness of multiple models,such as the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS),the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM).Inter-model and outer comparisons with Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinate time series,satellite gravity field Mascon solutions,and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) guide our assessment.Results confirm WGHM's 26% greater effectiveness in correcting nonlinear variations in GPS height time series compared to NCEP.In the Amazon River Basin,a 5-month lag between FLDAS,GLDAS,and satellite gravity results is observed.In eastern Asia and Australia,NCEP's Terrestrial Water Storage Changes (TWSC)-derived surface displacements correlate differently with precipitation compared to other models.Three combined hydrological models (H-VCE,H-EWM,and H-CVM) utilizing Variance Component Estimation (VCE),Entropy Weight Method (EWM),and Coefficient of Variation Method (CVM) are formulated.Correcting nonlinear variations with combined models enhances global GPS height scatter by 15%-17%.Correlation with precipitation increases by 25%-30%,and with satellite gravity,rises from 0.2 to 0.8 at maximum.The combined model eliminates time lag in the Amazon Basin TWSC analysis,exhibiting a four times higher signal-to-noise ratio than single models.H-VCE demonstrates the highest accuracy.In summary,the combined hydrological model minimizes discrepancies among individual models,significantly improving accuracy for monitoring large-scale TWSC.

GRACE detection of the medium-to far-field coseismic gravity changes caused by the 2004 Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

Large earthquakes cause observable changes in the Earth’s gravity field, which have been detected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Since most previous studies focus on the detection of near-field gravity effects, this study provides the results from the medium- to far-field gravity changes caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that are recorded within GRACE monthly solutions. Utilizing a spherical-earth dislocation model we documented that large-scale signals predominate in the global field of the coseismic gravity changes caused by the earthquake. After removing the near-field effects, the coseismic gravity changes show a negative anomaly feature with an average magnitude of -0.18×10-8 m·s-2 in the region ranging ～40° from the epicenter, which is considered as the 'medium ffield' in this study. From the GRACE data released by Center for Space Research from August 2002 to December 2008, we retrieved the large-scale gravity changes smoothed with 3 000 km Gaussian ffilter. The results show that the coseismic gravity changes detected by GRACE in the medium field have an average of (-0.20±0.06)×10-8 m·s-2, which agrees with the model prediction. The detection confirms that GRACE is sensitive to large-scale medium-field coseismic gravitational effects of mega earthquakes, and also validates the spherical-earth dislocation model in the medium field from the perspective of satellite gravimetry.

Analysis and Study on Spatial Gravity Center of PM_(2.5) and Population Scale

With the rapid development of urbanization construction in China,population and industries are rapidly gathering in cities,bringing about economic development and also causing a large number of environmental problems,among which PM_(2.5) is the most concerned.In this paper,a spatial gravity center model was used to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PM_(2.5) and population scale in China from 1999 to 2016.Conclusions were as below:(1)there were significant regional differences in PM_(2.5) pollution from 1999 to 2016,characterized by a spatial distribution of"high in the north and low in the south,and high in the inland and low in the coastal areas".(2)Nationwide,there was a significant spatial mismatch between the gravity center of PM_(2.5) pollution and the gravity center of population scale,with the two centers showing a trend of reverse dislocation development.

Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015

The vegetation ecosystem of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China,considered to be the′′natural laboratory′′of climate change in the world,has undergone profound changes under the stress of global change.Herein,we analyzed and discussed the spatial-temporal change patterns and the driving mechanisms of net primary productivity(NPP)in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015 based on the gravity center and correlation coefficient models.Subsequently,we quantitatively distinguished the relative effects of climate change(such as precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration)and human activities(such as grazing and ecological construction)on the NPP changes using scenario analysis and Miami model based on the MOD17A3 and meteorological data.The average annual NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest during 2000–2015.With respect to the inter-annual changes,the average annual NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2015,with a steep increase observed in 2005 and a high fluctuation observed from 2005 to 2015.In the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,the regions with the increase in NPP(change rate higher than 10%)were mainly concentrated in the Three-River Source Region,the northern Hengduan Mountains,the middle and lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River,and the eastern parts of the North Tibet Plateau,whereas the regions with the decrease in NPP(change rate lower than–10%)were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Ali Plateau.The gravity center of NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has moved southwestward during 2000–2015,indicating that the increment and growth rate of NPP in the southwestern part is greater than those of NPP in the northeastern part.Further,a significant correlation was observed between NPP and climate factors in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.The regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation were mainly located in the central and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,and the regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and temperature were mainly located in the southern and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.Furthermore,the relative effects of climate change and human activities on the NPP changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau exhibited significant spatial differences in three types of zones,i.e.,the climate change-dominant zone,the human activity-dominant zone,and the climate change and human activity interaction zone.These research results can provide theoretical and methodological supports to reveal the driving mechanisms of the regional ecosystems to the global change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

The Relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Climate Factors in the Semiarid Region:A Case Study in Yalu Tsangpo River Basin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Yalu Tsangpo River basin is a typical semi-arid and cold region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where significant climate change has been detected in the past decades. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the regional vegetation, especially the typical plant types, responds to the climate changes. In this study, the model of gravity center has been firstly introduced to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between NDVI and climate factors considering the time-lag effect. The results show that the vegetation grown has been positively influenced by the rainfall and precipitation both in moving tracks of gravity center and time-lag effect especially for the growing season during the past thirteen years. The herbs and shrubs are inclined to be influenced by the change of rainfall and temperature, which is indicated by larger positive correlation coefficients at the 0.05 confidence level and shorter lagging time. For the soil moisture, the significantly negative relationship of NDV-PDI indicates that the growth and productivity of the vegetation are closely related to the short-term soil water, with the correlation coefficients reaching the maximum value of o.81 at Lag 0-1. Among the typicalvegetation types of plateau, the shrubs of low mountain, steppe and meadow are more sensitive to the change of soil moisture with coefficients of -0.95, -0.93, -0.92, respectively. These findings reveal that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity between NDVI and climatic factors are of great ecological significance and practical value for the protection of eco-environment in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and temperature in the Songnen Plain,China

Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the contribution of LUCC to the changes of climatic factors, such as precipitation & temperature(P&T), is lacking. In this study, we combined statistical methods and the gravity center model simulation to quantify the effects of long-term LUCC on P&T in the Songnen Plain(SNP) of Northeast China from 1980–2018. The results showed the spatiotemporal variability of LUCC. For example, paddy field had the largest increase(15 166.43 km2) in the SNP, followed by dry land, while wetland had the largest decrease(19 977.13 km;) due to the excessive agricultural utilization and development. Annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of –9.89 mm per decade, and the warming trends were statistically significant with an increasing rate of 0.256°C per decade in this region since 1980. The model simulation revealed that paddy field, forestland, and wetland had positive effects on precipitation, which caused their gravity centers to migrate towards the same direction accompanied by the center of precipitation gravity, while different responses were seen for building land, dry land and unused land. These results indicated that forestland had the largest influence on the increase of precipitation compared with the other land use types.The responses in promoting the temperature increase differed significantly, being the highest in building land, and the lowest in forestland. In general, the analysis of regional-scale LUCC showed a significant reduction of wetland, and the increases in building land and cropland contributed to a continuous drying and rapid warming in the SNP.

Interprovincial migration in China,1985-2005:a gravity modeling approach

This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005.We have investigated six types of factors,namely,distance,population density,income,employment structure,house price,and migration stock.In addition,we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset,which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China.It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China,and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area.Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure.This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial ihfonnation and develop applicable models for migration processes.Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.

Analysis of Land Use Change and Driving Factors in Mojiang County Based on PLUS Model

[Objectives]To explore the characteristics of land use change and its main influencing factors in Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,and try to provide a scientific reference for alleviating the contradiction between man and land in Mojiang County and realizing the sustainable development of regional land resources.[Methods]Based on the land cover data and socio-economic data of Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,the dynamic degree of land use,land use transfer matrix and center-of-gravity transfer model were calculated,and the temporal and spatial change characteristics and driving factors of various types of land use were calculated by PLUS model.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the area and proportion of grassland,waters and construction land in Mojiang County showed an upward trend,while the area and proportion of cultivated land and forest land showed a downward trend.Among them,cultivated land was mainly converted into forest land and grassland,and some were converted into waters and construction land;forest land was mainly converted into cultivated land and grassland,and part of it was converted into waters and construction land.From 2000 to 2020,the center-of-gravity of cultivated land,forest land and construction land in Mojiang County moved to the southeast of the county,and the moving rates were 0.66,1.97 and 10.58 km/yr,respectively;the center-of-gravity of grassland and waters moved to the southwest of the county,and the moving rates were 1.30 and 20.20 km/yr,respectively.Distance from road,distance from government and distance from waters are the main driving forces affecting land use change in Mojiang County;the forecast shows that in 2040,the area of grassland and forest land in Mojiang County will continue to decrease,the area of cultivated land will turn to rise,and the area of waters and construction land will continue to rise.[Conclusions]Reasonable planning and optimizing the allocation of cultivated land and forest land structure and strict control of the expansion scale of construction land are necessary measures to ensure the coordinated development of regional land rational use and economic construction.

Exploring spatial-temporal change and gravity center movement of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is caused by the continuous acceleration of the urbanization process in China. Studying the expansion of construction land can not only know the changes and development of urban agglomeration in time, but also obtain the great significance of the future management. In this study, taking Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan) urban agglomeration in Hunan province as a study area, Landsat images from 1995 to 2014 and Autologistic-CLUE-S model simulation data were used. Moreover, several factors including gravity center, direction, distance and landscape index were considered in the analysis of the expansion. The results revealed that the construction area increased by 132.18%, from 372.28 km^2 in 1995 to 864.37 km^2 in 2014. And it might even reach 1327.23 km^2 in 2023. Before 2014, three cities had their own respective and discrete development directions. However, because of the integration policy implementation in 2008, the Chang-Zhu-Tan began to gather, the gravity center moved southward after 2014, and the distance between cities decreased, which was in line with the development plan of urban expansion. The research methods and results were relatively reliable, and these results could provide some reference for the future land use planning and spatial allocation in the urbanization process of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.

Monthly gravity field solution from GRACE range measurements using modified short arc approach

In this paper we present a series of monthly gravity field solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） range measurements using modified short arc approach,in which the ambiguity of range measurements is eliminated via differentiating two adjacent range measurements.The data used for developing our monthly gravity field model are same as Tongji-GRACEOl model except that the range measurements are used to replace the range rate measurements,and our model is truncated to degree and order 60,spanning Jan.2004 to Dec.2010 also same as Tongji-GRACE01 model.Based on the comparison results of the C_（2,0）,C_（2,1）,S_（2,1）,and C_（15,15）,S_（15,15）,time series and the global mass change signals as well as the mass change time series in Amazon area of our model with those of Tongji-GRACE01 model,we can conclude that our monthly gravity field model is comparable with Tongji-GRACE01 monthly model.

Monthly gravity field recovery from GRACE orbits and K-band measurements using variational equations approach

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） mission can significantly improve our knowledge of the temporal variability of the Earth＇s gravity field.We obtained monthly gravity field solutions based on variational equations approach from GPS-derived positions of GRACE satellites and K-band range-rate measurements.The impact of different fixed data weighting ratios in temporal gravity field recovery while combining the two types of data was investigated for the purpose of deriving the best combined solution.The monthly gravity field solution obtained through above procedures was named as the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics（IGG） temporal gravity field models.IGG temporal gravity field models were compared with GRACE Release05（RL05） products in following aspects：（i） the trend of the mass anomaly in China and its nearby regions within 2005-2010; （ii） the root mean squares of the global mass anomaly during 2005-2010; （iii） time-series changes in the mean water storage in the region of the Amazon Basin and the Sahara Desert between 2005 and 2010.The results showed that IGG solutions were almost consistent with GRACE RL05 products in above aspects（i）-（iii）.Changes in the annual amplitude of mean water storage in the Amazon Basin were 14.7 ± 1.2 cm for IGG,17.1 ± 1.3 cm for the Centre for Space Research（CSR）,16.4 ± 0.9 cm for the GeoForschungsZentrum（GFZ） and 16.9 ± 1.2 cm for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory（JPL） in terms of equivalent water height（EWH）,respectively.The root mean squares of the mean mass anomaly in Sahara were 1.2 cm,0.9 cm,0.9 cm and 1.2 cm for temporal gravity field models of IGG,CSR,GFZ and JPL,respectively.Comparison suggested that IGG temporal gravity field solutions were at the same accuracy level with the latest temporal gravity field solutions published by CSR,GFZ and JPL.

我国青贮玉米生产的集聚演变及其作用机制——基于动态空间杜宾模型

为观测青贮玉米生产的动态变化,研究基于2001—2021年我国30个省面板数据,选用重心模型分析青贮玉米生产集聚区域变动。在此基础上,借助动态空间杜宾模型剖析要素投入、社会经济、政策支持对中国青贮玉米生产区域变动的影响。结果表明,我国青贮玉米存在空间聚集现象,即2001—2021年间我国青贮玉米生产量的莫兰指数总体上呈“先降再升再降再升”的发展态势。生产重心演变轨迹结果显示,我国青贮玉米生产区域重心呈现“先东北后西北、西南”的演变趋势。机制结果表明,粮食优势、财政扶持、务工收入增加是推进青贮玉米生产的主要驱动因素;生产基础设备、化肥施用、农业收益对本省份青贮玉米生产具有正向影响,但对相邻省份青贮玉米生产的影响不显著。

下辽河平原区耕地非农化时空演变特征及驱动机制

探索耕地非农化的时空演变特征及其驱动机制是耕地保护的前提,分析下辽河平原区2000—2020年耕地非农化的时空演变特征及驱动机制,可以为该地区耕地保护政策的制定与防止耕地非农化提供理论依据。本文基于2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年5个时期的土地利用数据,以下辽河平原区为研究区域,结合社会经济数据,运用ArcGIS 10.2空间叠加分析,计算耕地非农化面积,采用重心迁移模型、核密度分析、地理探测器等统计学和地理信息系统的空间分析方法,揭示下辽河平原区耕地非农化特征及其演变趋势,并探讨其耕地非农化的驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)在时间上,下辽河平原区耕地非农化面积和非农化率呈现周期性波动,耕地非农化总面积为2201.52 km^(2),耕地非农化率为7.11%。2)在空间分布上,耕地非农化的重心主要从辽中区向东北方向迁移至于洪区,下辽河平原区耕地非农化东部地区高于西部地区,核密度最大值1657.3,主要在于洪区、浑南区、沈北新区、苏家屯区附近;耕地非农化的次集中区域为新民市和昌图县,其核密度最大值分别为1033.18和1018.49。3)在驱动因素上,耕地非农化驱动因素影响依次为农业机械总动力>户籍人口>城镇人口>固定资产投资>第三产业增加值>GDP>粮食产量>第二产业增加值,交互作用探测器表现为双因子增强或非线性增强关系。综合来看,耕地非农化是社会、经济因素综合作用的复杂结果。鉴于此,本文建议通过严格控制城市建设用地占用耕地的规模、挖掘农村居民点利用潜力、转变经济发展方式、推动农业产业结构调整等措施治理耕地非农化。

河南省耕地“非农化”时空演变特征分析

深入理解和掌握耕地“非农化”的时空演变特征及其原因对保护耕地并确保粮食安全具有重要意义。本文针对中国产粮第二大省河南,以县域为单位,基于河南省1980—2020年土地利用长时序空间数据,采用重心转移模型和空间自相关分析等方法,定量揭示全省158个县级评价单元1980—2020年来耕地“非农化”的空间分布特征、时空迁移路径和集聚特征,以期为河南省耕地资源的保护与可持续利用提供依据。结果表明:(1)河南省耕地资源东西分布差异大,集中连片耕地主要集中在东部,耕地总面积随时间推移呈波动减少。(2)耕地“非农化”等级时空差异较大,豫西地区耕地“非农化”较为缓和,中部和东部地区呈先快速上升后缓慢下降的态势。(3)河南省耕地“非农化”空间不均衡性增强,空间格局小幅波动,耕地“非农化”重心以先向东南和西南后向东北的路径迁移。(4)河南省耕地“非农化”空间分布格局在4个时期均呈现出集聚特性,空间集聚程度先增大后减小,高—高和低—低聚类主导格局变化。本研究揭示了1980—2020年河南省耕地“非农化”的时空演变格局,为政府管控耕地“非农化”现象、实现耕地资源的可持续发展提供参考和借鉴。

利用重力卫星数据反演江苏省陆地水与地下水储量变化

江苏省是我国经济最发达的省份之一,其水资源状况直接关系到区域的可持续发展和生态安全,因此监测其水储量变化尤为重要。通过联合GRACE/GFO卫星重力测量数据和GLDAS水文模式数据,反演并分析了自2002年4月以来江苏省陆地水、地下水储量的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:江苏省陆地水、地下水变化呈现显著的南北差异特性,水资源亏损程度由北向南逐渐减轻;就全省而言,陆地水储量的亏损速率为-1.4±0.6 mm/yr,地下水储量的亏损速率达到了-1.8±0.6 mm/yr。研究结果可为江苏省水资源保护和管理提供借鉴,有利于进一步推动江苏省水资源的可持续利用和生态保护。

1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化时空变化特征及驱动机制

[目的]通过分析滇中城市群30年耕地非农化的演变路径、时空变化特征及驱动机制,为滇中城市群耕地资源的保护及精准管理提供理论依据。[方法]基于滇中城市群土地利用数据和统计年鉴数据,运用重心迁移模型、变化轨迹模型、空间自相关分析、主成分分析等方法揭示1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化过程、空间分布特征及主要驱动因素。[结果](1)从时间上看,滇中城市群耕地非农化面积呈波动下降趋势,2000年前后由年均增加约6.88×10^(3)hm^(2)转变为年平均减少约2.66×10^(4)hm^(2),受政策、经济和城市化影响导致其变化最剧烈。从空间上看,耕地非农化集中分布于滇中城市群的中部、东部、东南部和东北部地区。(2)30年来,滇中城市群耕地非农化在空间分布上趋于均衡,区域间耕地非农化差异变小,空间格局趋于稳定。(3)滇中城市群耕地主要转出为林地和草地,少部分转化为建设用地,变化型耕地中有54.60%与草地相关,29.33%与林地相关,4.64%与建设用地相关,主要发生在滇中城市群的中部、北部、东南部和西北部的局部区域。(4)滇中城市群耕地非农化存在显著的空间聚集效应,以高—高聚集和低—低聚集为主,高—高聚集主要分布在中部、北部和东南部,低—低集聚主要分布在西北部、西部和西南部。(5)滇中城市群耕地非农化受社会经济和自然条件共同影响。社会经济中的农业人口、国有固定产投资和城市化率是耕地非农化最主要的驱动因素,影响系数分别为-0.18,0.11,0.10;而自然因素年平均降水量和年平均气温在耕地非农化空间分布和扩张过程起着关键性的作用,影响系数分别为0.17,-0.15。[结论]研究结果揭示30年来滇中城市群耕地非农化的时空变化特征、演变路径及驱动机制。对合理利用和保护耕地资源,保障云南省粮食安全具有重要作用,在一定程度上可为滇中城市群的耕地保护和耕地布局优化提供决策参考。

1980—2020年福建省耕地非农化的时空演变特征

[目的]以县域为单位对1980—2020年福建省耕地非农化时空演变特征进行系统研究,揭示福建省耕地非农化的空间分布、迁移规律和集聚特征,以期为福建省耕地资源保护与可持续利用提供依据。[方法]基于福建省1980,1990,2000,2010,2020年5期土地利用数据,运用重心模型、空间自相关等方法分析福建省耕地非农化时空演变特征。[结果]①福建省耕地资源主要呈带状分布于东南沿海,且耕地面积随时间推移逐年减少。②福建省耕地非农化空间分布地域差异性显著,耕地非农化程度不断加剧,由东南沿海地区逐步向全省范围扩散。耕地非农化高等级区域主要分布在东南沿海地区和西北地区,以耕地转为建设用地、林地和草地为主要类型。③福建省耕地非农化重心偏离于几何中心,其分布具有非均衡性。耕地非农化重心主要位于该省几何中心东南方向,沿先西南后东南再西北的路径转移。福建省东南部地区的耕地非农化程度仍高于西北部地区,耕地非农化空间格局的总体趋势由东南部地区向西北部地区迁移。④福建省耕地非农化呈空间正相关性,空间集聚程度加深。“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚的空间变化对福建省耕地非农化空间自相关关系的格局演变起主导作用,“高—高”集聚由东南部地区向西北部地区转移,“低—低”集聚数量减少。[结论]福建省耕地非农化程度不断加深,空间聚集度加强及耕地非农化重心逐渐向西北地区移动。为确保粮食安全,兼顾经济发展,应采取合理措施保护耕地,实现耕地资源的可持续发展。