RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

Supply-Side Structural Reforms and China's Potential Economic Growth Rate

This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.

China's economic growth and the inflation cycles since reform and opening to the outside world

This paper analyzes the cyclical characteristics of China’s economic growth and inflation since reform and opening-up, and explores the intrinsic link between the two.The study will be a guideline to keep a good balance between economic growth and inflation.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Nigeria Experience

This study investigated the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary source of data was employed in this study from 1986 to 2017 which were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2017) published in 2018 and World Development Indicator published in 2019. Descriptive and regression analyses were used as the estimation techniques. The findings of the study revealed that the coefficient value of LFDI is 0.633506 and its p-value is 0.0002 implying that a unit increase in LFDI will increase LGDP with the value of 0.633506. The coefficient value of RINTR is 0.004127 with p-value of 0.310 indicating that a unit increase in real interest rate will increase gross domestic product, but it is not significant. Also, LDI coefficient value is 1.758036 with p-value of 0.0688 implying that a unit increase in domestic investment will increase gross domestic product positively with the value of 1.758036 which is significant at 10% but not significant at 5% alpha level. The coefficient value of exchange rate is 0.835206 with the p-value of 0.0000 signifying that exchange rate is positive and significant to economic growth. It was concluded that foreign direct investment was positive and significant to economic growth of Nigeria while the domestic investment was also positive but not significant at 5% alpha level.

Non-regular Employment of Women,Fertility Rate,and Economic Growth

This study analyzes the interaction between non-regular employment of women and economic growth patterns by an overlapping-generations model.Declining Birthrate White Paper-Cabinet Office(2013)shows the ideal number of children per household is 2.42 compared to the current number of 2.07,which is the lowest so far in Japan.The main reason households do not have the ideal number of children is“the costs burden of childcare and education”and the ratio amounts to 60.4%.In recent years in Japan,households in which both the husband and the wife work are increasing,whereas those in which only the husband works are decreasing.Additionally,although women have same educational background and abilities as men,most women become non-regular employees after marriage and childbirth,which reduces household income.In such a situation,raising the rate of pension insurance will be a big burden for the household and the declining birthrate may be caused by high levels of educational expenditure and pension insurance.The Japanese government has discussed raising the wages of non-regular employees.This paper finds that a rise in the wage rate of non-regular employment is needed under the public pension policy that raises the rate of pension insurance,and it must be at an adequate level.That is,there is a high risk that this policy will have a negative effect on Japan’s economic growth if an adequate level is not achieved.

China＇s Economic Growth Cycles over the Past 60 Years and the Current New Cycle

This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.In tackling the global financial crisis,China is embracing a new economic cycle and must draw upon its economic history to prolong the upward momentum in the new cycle.To do so means maintaining an appropriate growth rate in the new cycle.This paper also analyzes the importance urbanization and the housing sector will play in the new cycle and how to address rising housing prices.

An empirical analysis of the IT industry's impacts on economic growth in China

With its increasing contributions to economic growth and its important role in optimizing industrial structure and stabilizing overall prices, China's information technology (IT) industry has grown into a dominant industrial sector in promoting the country's economic development. Its high level of total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates makes China's technical advances rely more and more on IT innovation and application. Under the current global economic crisis, the industry will remain an important source for economic growth.

China’s Potential Economic Growths during 2015-2025 under Different Scenarios~

China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CYCLES IN MODERN CHINA

If the theory of cyclical fluctuation can be applied to modern China, the economic development ofChina in this period can be seen as consisting of several stages. At each stage as well as in the wholeperiod, chosen index system is likely to help measure the growth rate. By vertical and horizontal com-parison, this paper will try to settle the disputes on China’s modern economic development.

Principle of Classification of Economic Growth Mode

In this paper, the economic growth factors are classified into two types and three kinds by the growth rate function of Solow. Based on their contribution, the economic growth mode is classified into three types and eight kinds. The case analysis of the classfication of economic growth mode is given. Finally, the paper gives the economic growth function which describes the principle of interaction among economic growth factors.

Does financial depth impact economic growth in North Cyprus?

This study purpose is to connect the proxy of financial development which is total banking sector’s deposits with the economic growth in North Cyprus.The reason for using the total deposit differently with the existing literature is because North Cyprus is bank-based financial system.Therefore,this study provides an analysis of the connection between finance-growth nexus in North Cyprus from 1978 through 2015,using the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model and combined cointegration to evaluate and verify the relationship.In addition,this research added the inflation rate to the model specification to investigate the inflation-growth interaction.The results revealed that both methods of cointegration provided robust evidence for a long-run relationship between financial debt and growth.The ARDL long-run and short-run coefficients showed the positive impact of depth and the negative impact of inflation on economic growth,thereby confirming the strength of the financegrowth and inflation-growth connections.Moreover,financial depth had a larger coefficient than the inflation rate.Finally,the VECM Granger causality test provided evidence for unidirectional causality from the total deposits and inflation rate to economic growth in North Cyprus.These results are significant for the policymakers of North Cyprus because the findings show that economic growth can be improved by enhancing the deposit rates in the financial system.

The New Normal from the Perspective of Macro History and Grand Logic of China's Economic Development

This paper attempts to explain the "new normal" of China's economic development put forward by XI Jinping, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, from three perspectives. First, as the new normal is a natural phase of long-term development in the country's renaissance, recognition of it helps policy-making to hold a historical perspective and maintain a patience in the face of growth slowdown. Second, the new normal as the logic of China's economic development underlines the necessity and urgency of transforming growth patterns and growth drivers. Third, different from the "new mediocre" of the world economy, the new normal reveals great potentials of sustainable growth of the Chinese economy that must be tapped through structural reforms.

China's economic growth pushed by domestic demand and relevant measures

By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies that the Chinese Government adopted to stimulate domestic demand. Domestic demand can be divided into investment demand and consumption demand,

人口结构变化、老龄化趋势及延迟退休对经济增长的影响

检验人口结构对经济增长的影响,预测人口总量及其结构的走势和老龄化的未来趋势,分析人口总量及其结构,尤其是老龄化趋势对经济增长的影响。研究发现:第一,劳动力数量和劳动力占比增加、人口抚养比下降会促进经济增长,在对经济增长的回归中人口结构的解释力不及劳动力数量,但在预测未来时人口结构变化的影响力更大。第二,总人口会在低方案情况下已步入下降通道,如果总和生育率不快速提升的话,中国的老龄化程度在近50年将持续加深。第三,延迟退休可以减少老龄化对经济增长的负面冲击;提高生育率可以减缓老龄化程度,但在短期会抑制经济增长。延迟退休方案增加劳动人口越多,越能促进经济增长,延迟退休实施的力度越大,法定退休年龄越大,对老龄化的缓冲程度越大。如果男女每年延迟退休递增1年,分别最终延迟到70岁和65岁,在一些年份甚至可以完全抵消老龄化的抑制作用。

日粮中添加蜜蜂肽对断奶仔猪生长性能、腹泻率及养殖经济效益的影响

[目的]研究日粮中添加蜜蜂肽对断奶仔猪生长性能、腹泻率及养殖经济效益的影响。[方法]将80头体重相近的21日龄杜×长×大三元杂交断奶仔猪随机分为4组(对照组及试验Ⅰ组~Ⅲ组),每组2个重复,每个重复10头。对照组饲喂基础日粮,试验Ⅰ组~Ⅲ组基础日粮中分别添加200、400、600 mg/kg的蜜蜂肽。预饲期7 d,正饲期28 d。记录各组仔猪的试验初体重、试验末体重、采食量以及腹泻发生情况,计算平均日增重、平均日采食量、腹泻率,根据饲料成本和增重情况计算养殖经济效益。[结果]与对照组相比,试验Ⅰ组~Ⅲ组仔猪的试验末体重、平均日增重、平均日采食量均显著(P<0.05)提高,料重比和腹泻率均显著(P<0.05)降低。试验Ⅱ组和试验Ⅲ组仔猪的试验末体重、平均日增重、平均日采食量均显著(P<0.05)高于试验Ⅰ组,料重比和腹泻率均显著(P<0.05)低于试验Ⅰ组。试验Ⅲ组仔猪的试验末体重、平均日增重、平均日采食量、料重比及腹泻率均优于试验Ⅱ组,但差异不显著(P>0.05)。试验Ⅰ组~Ⅲ组的利润分别比对照组增加11.926、23.986、27.224元/头,试验Ⅲ组的养殖经济效益最好。[结论]日粮中添加蜜蜂肽可以提高断奶仔猪生长性能,降低腹泻率,增加养殖经济效益。综合来看,添加600 mg/kg的蜜蜂肽效果最好。

中国环保考核制度调整与经济增长方式转变

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,是经济增长方式最直接的体现之一。首先分析城市经济增长率与企业二氧化硫排放量之间的关系,发现其在2005年前后发生了根本性转变:在2005年以前,二者高度正相关,而在2005年以后,这种相关性明显减弱。机制分析发现:出现这一转变的直接原因是在2005年及以后随着经济增长率的提高,企业更多地使用清洁能源代替非清洁能源;更深层的原因则是在2005年以前地方官员选择放松环境规制促进经济增长,而2005年及以后此动机因官员环保考核制度调整而受到抑制。进一步分析发现,重污染行业占比不同的城市在2005年及以后选择了不同的“清洁化”增长战略。分析表明,2005年环保考核制度调整使中国的经济增长方式发生了根本性转变。

我国省际全要素生产率的对比分析研究

传统的按照索洛方法计算的广义技术进步率并不是本来意义上的全要素生产率。因此,本文重新构建全要素生产率的测度框架。一是明确定义全要素生产率,即一定时期内,按照现有的技术条件和产业结构比例,每投入一个单位的全部生产要素所能够带来的最终产出。二是利用有关统计数据估算省级层面有效资本存量,并分别构建各省份合适的计量模型估计其在不同发展阶段的要素产出弹性系数,进而测度各省份全要素生产率以及因全要素生产率变动所带来的经济增长率(简称全要素经济增长率)。实证分析结果表明,一般情况下,经济越发达省份的全要素生产率也越高,但是经济发达省份的全要素经济增长率并不一定高于经济欠发达省份。该结果不仅与常识相符,而且也合理解释了各省份生产效率与技术进步之间的联系与区别,验证了本文所提出的测度框架及方法的可行性。

中国人口变化趋势及经济潜在增长率——兼论延迟退休的影响

基于生产函数法的估测结果显示,2035年之前中国潜在经济增长率将处于下行趋势,2021—2025年平均为5.2%左右,2026—2030年平均为5.1%左右,2031—2035年平均为4.7%左右。潜在经济增长率下降的主要因素是,未来人口抚养比上升,导致固定资本形成率下降,进而固定资本存量增速放缓。未来就业人口数量减少,对潜在经济增长率有不利影响,但人力资本积累能在一定程度上弥补。情形分析结果显示,2035年之前人口出生率水平与经济潜在增长率呈相反关系,主要原因是,新出生人口在2035年前尚无法进入劳动力市场,反而会通过影响固定资本增速拖累经济潜在增长率。延迟退休对2025—2035年的经济增长有积极影响,以2024年9月13日公布的方案测算,年均提高潜在增长率约0.03个百分点。

稳中求进以进促稳先立后破——当前中国经济形势分析与2024年展望

“坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”是2023年中央经济工作会议上提出的宏观治理新思路,为中国经济政策调整指明了新方向。中国经济增速近些年持续低于潜在增速,在疫情前就已经形成经济增速持续下滑的态势。逆转这一态势,实现高质量发展刻不容缓。中国经济发展潜力仍然巨大,为了充分释放这些潜力,宏观经济政策应当积极对冲规范治理政策带来的收缩效应,2024年需重点着力于房地产、地方债、民营经济、科技创新、消费信心、城镇化、国际环境七大方面。2024年要关注房地产风险扩大、民营企业信心不足、西方大国选举引致的不确定性上升三方面的风险。若这三大风险能妥善应对,2024年中国经济有望实现5%左右的增长。