Crossing the Growth Threshold： Service-Based Economy, Knowledge Process and Reshaping of Efficiency Model

The transition from middle-income to high-income stage is fraught with risks of growth divergence. Economic transition is clouded by the following possibilities： （1）falling share of industrial seetor through industrial depression and weakening growth momentum caused by the large urbanization costs; （2） the subordination of service sector as a result of nearly irreversibly industrial professional, which falters the process of service sector transition and upgrading,＂ （3） inefficient knowledge production allocation and human capital upgrade due to the absence of incentivized compensation of knowledge consumption. We suggest that a country should reshape its efficiency model by upgrading knowledge factor and human capital as the pre-requisite. Given the dilemmas of transition, China should take the faetorization trend of service sector and reshape efficiency model through institutional reform, ensuring that service sector will develop in tandem with industrial sector.

Research on the Design and Implementation of Middle School Physical Education Curriculum Based on the Process Model

For a long time,the education work in China has been deeply affected by the target model.With the development of the times and the continuous reform of education,the impact of process model on education has become increasingly prominent.It does not only give full play to the internal value of the curriculum content,but also cultivate students5 personality and subjectivity.Taking the middle school physical education curriculum design as an example,this paper explores the practical application of process model for reference.

Simulation and Validation of Rice Potential Growth Process in Zhejiang Province of China by Utilizing WOFOST Model

A crop growth model of WOFOST was calibrated and validated through rice field experiments from 2001 to 2004 in Jinhua and Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. For late rice variety Xiushui 11 and hybrid Xieyou 46, the model was calibrated to obtain parameter values using the experimental data of years 2001 and 2002, then the parameters were validated by the data obtained during 2003. For single hybrid rice Liangyoupeijiu, the data recorded in 2004 and 2003 were used for calibration and validation, respectively. The main focus of the study was as follows： the WOFOST model is good in simulating rice potential growth in Zhejiang and can be used to analyze the process of rice growth and yield potential. The potential yield obtained from the WOFOST model was about 8100 kg/ha for late rice and 9300 kg/ha for single rice. The current average yield in Jinhua is only about 78% （late rice） and 70% （single rice） of their potential yield. The results of the simulation also showed that the currant practice of management at the middle and late growth stages of rice should be reexamined and improved to reach optimal rice growth.

A New Growth Model of Fault Attributes in a Strike-Slip Fault System in the Tarim Basin

Fault attributes generally display a consistent power–law-scaling relationship.Based on new 3 D seismic data,however,we found some exceptional fault attribute relationships of lengths(L)–throw(T)(vertical component of displacement),overlap zone length(Lo)–width(Wo)from a strike-slip fault system of the Ordovician carbonates in the Tarim Basin.The L–T relationship shows two linear segments with breakup at^40 km in fault length.This presents an exceptional throw increase in the second stage,which is attributed to a localization of vertical displacement and deformation in overlapping zones other than the different fault scales in a mature fault zone.The Lo–Wo relationship in the overlapping zones shows multiply stepped-shape patterns,suggesting multiple fault differential growth and periodic increase in fault size.Therefore,we propose a new alternative growth model of fault attributes in strike-slip fault zones,in which the overlapping zones accumulated localized displacement and deformation in the intracratonic strike-slip fault zone.

Relative importance of different physical processes on upper crustal specific heat flow in the Eifel-Maas region, Central Europe and ramifications for the production of geothermal energy

We study the recent upper crustal heat flow variations caused by long-term physical processes such as paleoclimate, erosion, sedimentation and mantle plume upwelling. As specific heat flow is a common lower boundary condition in many models of heat en fluid flow in the Earth’s crust we quantify its long-term transient variation caused by paleoclimate, erosion or sedimentation, mantle plume upwelling and deep groundwater flow. The studied area extends between the Eifel mountains and the Maas river inCentral Europe. The total variation due to these processes in our study area amounts to tectonic events manifested in the studied area 20 mW/m2, about 30% of the present day specific heat flow in the region.

A weakly coupled data assimilation system of a coupled physical–biological model for the northeastern South China Sea

A weakly coupled data assimilation system was established for a coupled physical–biological model for the northeastern South China Sea（NSCS）. The physical model used was the Regional Ocean Modeling System; the biological component was a seven-compartment nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus ecosystem model; and the data assimilation method was Ensemble Optical Interpolation. To test the performance of the weakly coupled data assimilation system, two numerical experiments（i.e. control and assimilation runs） based on a process-oriented idealized case were conducted, and climatological SST was assimilated in the assimilation run. Only physical variables were adjusted in the weakly coupled data assimilation. The results showed that both the assimilated SST and other unassimilated physical variables had reasonable process responses. Due to the warmer SST observation, the water temperature（salinity） in the assimilation run increased（decreased） in coastal upwelling regions. Both the alongshore and bottom cross-shore currents were reduced, jointly demonstrating the weakening of the upwelling system. Meanwhile, ecosystem variables were also affected to some extent by the SST assimilation through the coupled model. For example, larger phytoplankton（chlorophyll） productivity was found in the upwelling region within the shallow layer due to the warmer waters in the assimilation run. Hence, the application of this data assimilation system could reasonably modify both physical and biological variables for the NSCS by SST assimilation.

Energy Balance-Based SWAT Model to Simulate the Mountain Snowmelt and Runoff——Taking the Application in Juntanghu Watershed(China) as an Example

In order to predict long-term flooding under extreme weather conditions in central Asia, an energy balance-based distributed snowmelt runoff model was developed and coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. The model was tested at the Juntanghu watershed on the northern slope of the Tian Shan Mountains, Xinjiang,China. We compared the performances of temperature-index method and energy balanced method in SWAT model by taking Juntanghu river basin as an application example(as the simulation experiment was conducted in Juntanghu River, we call the energy balanced method as SWAT-JTH). The results suggest that the SWAT snowmelt model had overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) coefficients ranging from 0.61 to 0.85 while the physical based approach had NSE coefficients ranging from 0.58 to0.69. Overall, on monthly scale, the SWAT model provides better results than that from the SWAT-JTH model. However, results generated from both methods seem to be fairly close at a daily scale. Thestructure of the temperature-index method is simple and produces reasonable simulation results if the parameters are well within empirical ranges. Although the data requirement for the energy balance method in current observation is difficult to meet and the existence of uncertainty is associated with the experimental approaches of physical processes, the SWAT-JTH model still produced a reasonably high NSE. We conclude that using temperature-index methods to simulate the snowmelt process is sufficient, but the energy balance-based model is still a good choice to simulate extreme weather conditions especially when the required data input for the model is acquired.

Discrete Software Reliability Growth Modeling for Errors of Different Severity Incorporating Change-point Concept

Several software reliability growth models （SRGM） have been developed to monitor the reliability growth during the testing phase of software development. In most of the existing research available in the literatures, it is considered that a similar testing effort is required on each debugging effort. However, in practice, different types of faults may require different amounts of testing efforts for their detection and removal. Consequently, faults are classified into three categories on the basis of severity： simple, hard and complex. This categorization may be extended to r type of faults on the basis of severity. Although some existing research in the literatures has incorporated this concept that fault removal rate （FRR） is different for different types of faults, they assume that the FRR remains constant during the overall testing period. On the contrary, it has been observed that as testing progresses, FRR changes due to changing testing strategy, skill, environment and personnel resources. In this paper, a general discrete SRGM is proposed for errors of different severity in software systems using the change-point concept. Then, the models are formulated for two particular environments. The models were validated on two real-life data sets. The results show better fit and wider applicability of the proposed models as to different types of failure datasets.

PHSICAL MODELLING AND PROCESSING OF Ti-6Al-4V ELI

Titanium has been widely used as the implant materials of joint prostheses. This paper simulates the microstructures of the hot forged titanium knee joint component by physical modeling. Ti-6Al-4V ELI were deformed by GLEEBLE 2000 hot deforma- tion simulator in compression mode to determine the hot workability, in the range of 900 to 1100℃, with the strain rates between 0.05 to 5 s^(-1). Test results derived from specimens processed by on-cooling test and on-heating test were compared, thereby estimating the effect due to thermal history. The forging process of Ti-6Al-4V ELI tibial base plate of knee joint prostheses was design based on the workability data obtained.

Simulation Experiments of Land Surface Physical Processes and Ecological Effect over Different Underlying Surface

Based on the existing Land Surface Physical Process Models(Deardorff, Dickinson, LIU, Noilhan, Seller, ZHAO), a Comprehensive Land Surface Physical Process Model (CLSPPM) is developed by considering the different physical processes of the earth's surface-vegetation-atmosphere system more completely. Compared with SiB and BATS, which are famous for their detailed parameterizations of physical variables, this simplified model is more convenient and saves much more computation time. Though simple, the feas...

Modeling and analysis of the ocean dynamic with Gaussian complex network

The techniques for oceanographic observation have made great progress in both space-time coverage and quality, which make the observation data present some characteristics of big data. We explore the essence of global ocean dynamic via constructing a complex network with regard to sea surface temperature. The global ocean is divided into discrete regions to represent the nodes of the network. To understand the ocean dynamic behavior, we introduce the Gaussian mixture models to describe the nodes as limit-cycle oscillators. The interacting dynamical oscillators form the complex network that simulates the ocean as a stochastic system. Gaussian probability matching is suggested to measure the behavior similarity of regions. Complex network statistical characteristics of the network are analyzed in terms of degree distribution, clustering coefficient and betweenness. Experimental results show a pronounced sensitivity of network characteristics to the climatic anomaly in the oceanic circulation. Particularly, the betweenness reveals the main pathways to transfer thermal energy of El Niño–Southern oscillation. Our works provide new insights into the physical processes of ocean dynamic, as well as climate changes and ocean anomalies.

Deep Deformation Processes in the Southern Ningxia Geomorphic Belt: Insight from Two-dimensional Particle-in-cell Finite Difference Numerical Modelling

The deep lateral growth process of the plateau is a hot topic in earth science.As the growth boundary zone of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,southern Ningxia geomorphic zone is controlled by four major arcuate fault zones(Fig.1),namely Haiyuan fault(HYF),XiangshanTianjingshan fault(XTSF),Yantongshan fault(YTSF).

Reliability modeling of mutual DCFP considering failure physical dependency

Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has been widely studied.Electronic system may experience mutual effects of degradation and shocks,they are considered to be interdependent.Both the degradation and the shock processes will decrease the limit of system and cause cumulative effect.Finally,the competition of hard and soft failure will cause the system failure.Based on the failure mechanism accumulation theory,this paper constructs the shock-degradation acceleration and the threshold descent model,and a system reliability model established by using these two models.The mutually DCFP effect of electronic system interaction has been decomposed into physical correlation of failure,including acceleration,accumulation and competition.As a case,a reliability of electronic system in aeronautical system has been analyzed with the proposed method.The method proposed is based on failure physical evaluation,and could provide important reference for quantitative evaluation and design improvement of the newly designed system in case of data deficiency.

Using Artificial Neural-Networks in Stochastic Differential Equations Based Software Reliability Growth Modeling

Due to high cost of fixing failures, safety concerns, and legal liabilities, organizations need to produce software that is highly reliable. Software reliability growth models have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. Most of the Software Reliability Growth Models, which have been proposed, treat the event of software fault detection in the testing and operational phase as a counting process. Moreover, if the size of software system is large, the number of software faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, and the change of the number of faults which are detected and removed through debugging activities becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. Therefore in such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with a continuous state space. Recently, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied in software reliability growth prediction. In this paper, we propose an ANN based software reliability growth model based on Ito type of stochastic differential equation. The model has been validated, evaluated and compared with other existing NHPP model by applying it on actual failure/fault removal data sets cited from real software development projects. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP based model.

Lognormal Process Software Reliability Modeling with Testing-Effort

We propose a software reliability growth model with testing-effort based on a continuous-state space stochastic process, such as a lognormal process, and conduct its goodness-of-fit evaluation. We also discuss a parameter estimation method of our model. Then, we derive several software reliability assessment measures by the probability distribution of its solution process, and compare our model with existing continuous-state space software reliability growth models in terms of the mean square error and the Akaike’s information criterion by using actual fault count data.

Mathematical Modeling of Heat Flux Distribution in Raw Cotton Stored in Bunt

The scientific article examines the physical and mechanical properties of raw cotton stored in buntings in cotton palaces. Because during the storage of raw cotton in bunts, some of its properties deteriorate, some improvements. Therefore, the mathematical modeling of storage conditions of raw cotton in bunts and the physical and mechanical conditions that occur in it is of great importance. In the developed mathematical model, the main factor influencing the physical and mechanical properties of raw cotton is the change in temperature. Due to the temperature, kinetic and biological processes accumulated in the raw cotton in Bunt, it can spread over a large surface, first in a small-local state, over time with a nonlinear law. As a result, small changes in temperature lead to a qualitative change in physical properties. In determining the law of temperature distribution in the raw cotton in Bunt, Laplace’s differential equation of heat transfer was used. The differential equation of heat transfer in Laplace’s law was replaced by a system of ordinary differential equations by approximation. Conditions are solved in MAPLE-17 program by numerical method. As a result, graphs of temperature changes over time in raw cotton were obtained. In addition, the table shows the changes in density, pressure and mass of cotton, the height of the bun. As the density of the cotton raw material increases from the top layer of the bunt to the bottom layer, an increase in the temperature in it has been observed. This leads to overheating of the bottom layer of cotton and is the main reason for the deterioration of the quality of raw materials.

Incorporating S-shaped testing-effort functions into NHPP software reliability model with imperfect debugging

Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped varying trend of TE increasing rate more accurately, first, two S-shaped testing-effort functions（TEFs）, i.e.,delayed S-shaped TEF（DS-TEF） and inflected S-shaped TEF（IS-TEF）, are proposed. Then these two TEFs are incorporated into various types（exponential-type, delayed S-shaped and inflected S-shaped） of non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP）SRGMs with two forms of ID respectively for obtaining a series of new NHPP SRGMs which consider S-shaped TEFs as well as ID. Finally these new SRGMs and several comparison NHPP SRGMs are applied into four real failure data-sets respectively for investigating the fitting and prediction power of these new SRGMs.The experimental results show that：（i） the proposed IS-TEF is more suitable and flexible for describing the consumption of TE than the previous TEFs;（ii） incorporating TEFs into the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM may be more effective and appropriate compared with the exponential-type and the delayed S-shaped NHPP SRGMs;（iii） the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM considering both IS-TEF and ID yields the most accurate fitting and prediction results than the other comparison NHPP SRGMs.

Growth and aggregation micromorphology of natural gas hydrate particles near gas-liquid interface under stirring condition

To investigate the morphological evolution of the whole growth and aggregation processes of hydrate crystals near the gas–liquid interface,we used a high-pressure visual reactor with high-speed camera to capture the micromorphology of hydrate particles in a natural gas+pure water system with pressure from 2.6 to 3.6 MPa and sub-cooling from 4.7 to 6.23C.The results showed that under low sub-cooling conditions,the amount and size of particles increased first and then decreased in the range of 0–330 lm,and the small particles always dominated.These particles can be roughly classified into two categories:planar flake particles and polyhedral solid particles.Then,the concept of maximum growth dominant particle size was proposed to distinguish the morphological boundary of growth and aggregation.In addition,the micro model was established to better reflect the effects of particle formation process and evolution mechanism near the gas–liquid interface under stirring condition.The results of this study can provide a guidance for flow assurance in multiphase pipeline.

Effects of Quenching Process on Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Low Carbon Nb-Ti Microalloyed Steel

The low carbon Nb-Ti mieroalloyed tested steel was prepared by the process of vacuum induction furnace smelting, forging and hot rolling. The new steel aims to meet the demand of high strength, high toughness and high plasticity for building facilities. The effects of quenching process on microstructure and mechanical properties of tested steel were investigated. The results showed that prior austenite grain size, phase type and precipitation behavior of （ Nb, Ti） （ C, N） play important roles in mechanical properties of the steel. Through modified appropriately, the model of austenite grain growth during heating and holding is d^5.7778 = 5. 6478^5.7778 ＋ 7.04 × 10^22t^1.6136 exp（- 427. 15 ×10^3 /（RT））. The grain growth activation energy is Qg = 427. 15 kJ. During quenching, the microscopic structures are mainly martensite and lath bainite which contains lots of lath substructure and dislocations. The content of phases, fine and coarsening （ Nb, Ti ） （ C, N ） precipitated changes during different quenching temperatures and holding time. Finally compared with the hardness value, the best quenching process can be obtained that heating temperature and holding time are 900 ℃ and 50 mins, respectively.

Mechanical response features and failure process of soft surrounding rock around deeply buried three-centered arch tunnel

Due to the extreme complexity of mechanical response of soft surrounding rock(SR) around a tunnel under high geostatic stress conditions, the integration of physical and numerical modeling techniques was adopted. Based on the similarity theory, new composite-similar material was developed, which showed good agreement with the similarity relation and successfully simulated physico-mechanical properties(PMP) of deep buried soft rock. And the 800 mm×800 mm×200 mm physical model(PM) was conducted, in which the endoscopic camera technique was adopted to track the entire process of failure of the model all the time. The experimental results indicate that the deformation of SR around a underground cavern possessed the characteristics of development by stages and in delay, and the initial damage of SR could induce rapid failure in the later stage, and the whole process could be divided into three stages, including the localized extension of crack(the horizontal load(HL) was in the range of 130 k N to 170 k N, the vertical load(VL) was in the range of 119 k N to 153.8 k N), rapid crack coalescence(the HL was in the range of 170 k N to 210 k N, the VL was in the range of 153.8 k N to 182.5 k N) and residual strength(the HL was greater than 210 k N, the VL was greater than 182.5 k N). Under the high stress conditions, the phenomenon of deformation localization in the SR became serious and different space positions show different deformation characteristics. In order to further explore the deformation localization and progressive failure phenomenon of soft SR around the deeply buried tunnel, applying the analysis software of FLAC3 D three-dimensional explicit finite-difference method, based on the composite strain-softening model of Mohr-Coulomb shear failure and tensile failure, the calculation method of large deformation was adopted. Then, the comparative analysis between the PM experiment and numerical simulation of the three centered arch tunnels was implemented and the relationship of deformation localization and progressive failure of SR around a tunnel under high stress conditions was discussed.