RESEARCH ON THE POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE LAND RESOURCES IN THE ECONOMIC AREA OF ZHUJIANG DELTA

The authors once made a preliminary research on population carrying capacity of the land in the Economic Area of Zhujiang Delta (EAZD for short) in 1995, and reckoned that the ultimate population in this region will be 23 550 thousand by year of 2000. While the population in being in EAZD was 22.62 million in 1999.This accords with the prefigured result in the rough from the point of view of development. According to the data of plow land resources from the 2000 Statistical Yearbook of EAZD and the study on the population-foodstuff-plow land relationship, this paper calculates the productive potential of plow land and the population carrying capacity of land by year of 2010, and puts forward the countermeasures for improving the population carrying capacity of land in this region.

The Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin City

Assessing the water resource carrying capacity is beneficial for measuring the scale of industry and population agglomeration,and also avoiding the contradiction between increasing people and decreasing available water resource,due to the expansion of industry and city size.Based on the prediction model of optimum population development size,by using hydrological data,also with the demographic data from 1956 to 2010,this article analyzes and predicts the urban moderate scale under the limit of the water resource in the future of Yulin City by GIS. The main conclusions are as follows. There is growing tendency of water resources overloading. According to the result of model simulation,by2015,the overload rate of population size will be 1. 04. By 2020,the overload rate of population size will grow up to 1. 08. The oversized population mainly comes from cities and towns. The overload rate for cities and towns in 2015 and 2020 is 1. 89 and 1. 73,respectively. With the expansion of cities and industries,suburban areas could have a great potential for carrying population,because lots of suburban people may move to cities and towns according to prediction. In view of the above-mentioned facts,the population size should be controlled in a reasonable range.

Carrying Capacity and Coupling Coordination of Water and Land Resources Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Areas: A Case Study of Yulin City, China

Quantitatively assessing the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems in arid and semi-arid areas is crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.In this work,taking Yulin City in China as a case study and employing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method,a modified model of coupling degree was developed to evaluate the car-rying capacity of water and land resources systems endowment and utilization,as well as their coupling coordination degree from 2013 to 2020.Our findings indicate that the water and land resources of Yulin are diminishing due to declines in agriculture,higher industrial water use,and wetland shrinkage.However,reallocating domestic water for ecological sustainability and reducing sloping farmland can mitigate this trend of decline.Temporally,as the coupling coordination between water and land resources system endowment in Yulin continuously improved,the coupling coordination between water and land resources system utilization first decreased and then in-creased with 2016 as the turning point.Spatially,the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems,the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system endowment,and the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system utilization in Yulin exhibited the same pattern of being higher in the six northern counties than in the six southern counties.Improving the water resources endowment is vital for the highly efficient use of water and land resources.

The Coordination Effect of Marine and Land Resources Carrying Capacity of Coastal Areas in China

The carrying capacity of marine and land resources is one of the indicators to measure the sustainable development level of coastal areas,reflecting the supporting capacity of the ecological environment for human activities and the impact of human activities on the regional environment.This paper establishes an evaluation index system to determine the evaluation value of the carrying capacity of marine and land resources in China’s coastal areas,the evaluation index of marine and land resources supply capacity(economic and social development demand)subsystem,and the degree of coordinated development of the subsystems in 11 coastal areas from 2006 to 2017.The results showed that the average supply and demand capacity of the two subsystems in each region is not high;the average demand level of economic and social development is higher than the supply capacity of marine and land resources;the carrying capacity of marine and land resources is slightly overloaded in most areas;the collaborative development between the supply and demand subsystems is barely coordinated with moderate imbalance;most regions need to move in the direction of green development to ensure the supply capacity of marine and land resources.

Assessment of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Land Resources Based on Land Functions

Based on relevant research results,from the perspective of land use functions,an evaluation indicator system of carrying capacity of land resources composed of three second-grade indicators( production,living and ecological carrying capacity) including 24 third-grade indicators was established,and the carrying capacity of land resources in ten cities of Shaanxi Province in 2013 was assessed and analyzed by using mean square error analysis method and hierarchical clustering method. The results showed that the three types of carrying capacity in most cities of Shaanxi Province are shown as follows: ecological carrying capacity > living carrying capacity > production carrying capacity,and the differences between various regions in a single type of carrying capacity basically accorded with the actual situation of development in each city; there were obvious differences between various cities in the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources,which was basically consistent with regional economic and social development.

Land Potential Productivity and Population Carrying Capacity of Yan'an City

The productivity attenuation method is adopted to calculate land potential productivity of counties of Yan'an City and calculate population carrying capacity at current productivity level. Result shows that high photosynthetic potential productivity area and high light and temperature potential productivity area are mainly situated in the north,while high climatic potential area and high land potential productivity area are mainly concentrated in the south. From solar radiation,moisture and landform,the attenuation amplitude of land potential productivity in northern counties ( districts) is greater than that in southern counties ( districts) . In the whole city,the population carrying capacity of 9 counties reaches well-off living level,and 1 district still does not reach the level of adequate food and clothing. These results can provide reference for land resource use,agricultural production distribution and population growth control.

Quantitative evaluation of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity

This study identifies the carrying state and value of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity.A new theoretical framework is proposed for exploring the resource and environmental carrying capacity based on two perspectives of“growth limit”and“stability of Human-Earth relationship system”.On this basis,an ideal growth model that accords with the“short board”effect is established to predict the population limitation.Analytical results show that the holistic state of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet is in jeopardy.From 2010 to 2016,Tibet’s carrying state continued to decline,moreover,the negative forces still overwhelm the positive forces.Although the resource reserves still have room for more population,the environmental capacity and ecological capacity have been overloaded.Meanwhile,the Human-Earth relationship system is in an unstable stage.Three scenarios that respond to different socioeconomic developments are implemented to predict the population limitation of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet;thus,authors argue that Tibet should keep its population size within 4 million around 2025.This research will provide reference for sustainable development and resources and environmental conservation in Tibet.

The theory and method research on the double evaluation of land and space:A survey

By reviewing the theories and methods of resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation and suitability evaluation of land and space development,it provides theoretical and technical support for rational layout and optimization of land and space development pattern.From the aspects of resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,the importance of ecological protection,the suitability of agricultural production,and the suitability of urban construction,we sort out domestic and foreign documents.The evaluation of resource carrying capacity has changed from single-factor evaluation to multi-factor comprehensive evaluation.At present,the optimization of land use pattern based on the“three-generation”space is still under exploration,it is not enough to systematize and summarize the thought of optimizing the spatial pattern of the national territory.The theoretical framework,model,method and index of“dual evaluation”of territorial space need to be improved continuously,it also needs the scientific analysis and cognition from the natural direction to the human location direction and the spatial equilibrium state as the new driving force.

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of Changchun-Jilin Region

Based on such principles as sustainable development and ecological cycle, this paper evaluates the water resources carrying capacity(WCC) of Changchun-Jilin region using a population-economy-water resources correlation evaluation model built on the basis of WCC evaluation method as elaborated in the methodology of Functional Zoning of Population Development. Results show that the annual WCC of Changchun-Jilin region is able to support the population there, as a basic balance is struck between population and water resources. The incorporation of WCC into overall urban planning is one of the building blocks for sustainable city development with an advisable size.

China's Land Carrying Capacity Based on Man-grain Relationships

With population growth and increasing pressure on land resources,land carrying capacity(LCC) and food safety have been attracting great attention worldwide.From the point of man-grain relationship and by establishing LCC and land carrying capacity index(LCCI) models,this article firstly analyzes the spatial-temporal dynamics of LCC of China from 1949 to 2005 at county,provincial and national levels.Choosing 2005 as a representative year,this article then evaluates the LCC of 264 pastoral regions(semipastoral regions),663 urban regions and 592 poverty stricken regions of the country.The results show that:(1) from 1949 to 2005,with the increase of grain production,the LCC of China has been improved conspicuously,but due to the rapid population growth,the production can only maintain a low level grain consumption;(2) over the past 25 years(1980-2005),the number of population overloading provinces decreased from 23 to 15 and the mangrain relationship has been improved gradually,but there were more overloading provinces than surplus provinces in China;(3) at county level,there were 1572 overloading counties in 1980 accounting for 68.26% of the total counties of the country and where were 649 million people lived,while in 1990,2000 and 2005,the number of overloading counties were 1066,1133 and 1087 respectively,which shows that the man-grain relationship has been improved obviously during the past 25 years;as for spatial distribution,the surplus counties were mainly concentrated in agriculture developed regions,such as Northeast Plain,North China Plain,middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain,and overloading counties were mainly located in regions with poor natural environment and low grain production capacity,such as Northwest China,Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau and economically developed urban regions,such as Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai;(4) animal husbandry improved greatly the LCC of pastoral and semi-pastoral regions,while urban regions were overloading for increasing population pressure and more than half of poverty stricken regions were overloading due to critical natural environment and poor economic conditions.

The Population Carrying Capacity of Waters Ecosystem in China

The study of waters ecosystem and their population carrying capacity demonstrates the role of these ecosystems in economic and social development and provides a theoretical basis for the management and allocation of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the concept of waters ecosystem population carrying capacity was defined and developmental trends in the population carrying capacity of waters ecosystem in China were evaluated. Results show that waters ecosystem population carrying capacity in China increased from 0.176×109 person year-1 in 2000 to 0.255 × 109 person year-1 in 2010; the population carrying capacity of the standard sea remained at 0.2-0.3 person ha 1; and the standard inland waters population carrying capacity increased from 1.8 to 3.2 person ha-1. This analysis indicates notable regional difference in waters population carrying capacity. In southeastern coastal China and Yangtze River drainage areas where inland waters are widely distributed and aquaculture is developed, the population carrying capacity is higher; however, in northwest China where water resource are deficient and the distribution is relatively small, the waters population carrying capacity is low. The waters ecosystem population carrying capacity of China in 2030 was predicted and results indicate strong potential for increasing waters population carrying capacity.

Evaluating Beijing’s human carrying capacity from the perspective of water resource constraints

As the demands on limited water resources intensify, concerns are being raised about the human carrying capacity of these resources. However, few researchers have studied the carrying capacity of regional water resources. Beijing, the second-largest city in China, faces a critical water shortage that will limit the city’s future development. We developed a method to quantify the carrying capacity of Beijing’s water resources by considering water-use structures based on the proportions of water used for agricultural, industrial, and domestic purposes. We defined a reference structure as 45：22：33 （% of total, respectively）, an optimized structure as 40：20：40, and an ideal structure as 50：15：35. We also considered four domestic water quotas： 55, 75, 95, and 115 m 3 /（person·yr）. The urban carrying capacity of 10–12 million was closest to Beijing’s actual 2003 population for all three water-use structures with urban domestic water use of 75 m 3 /（person·yr）. However, after accounting for our underlying assumptions, the adjusted carrying capacity is closer to 5–6 million. Thus, Beijing’s population in 2003 was almost twice the adjusted carrying capacity. Based on this result, we discussed the ecological and environmental problems created by Beijing’s excessive population and propose measures to mitigate these problems.

Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Great Dunhuang Region

Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) is an important index for assessing the coordinated development relationship between population and water resources. The quantitative evaluation of WRCC can provide an important basis for water resource regulation and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the statistical data of cities and counties in the Great Dunhuang Region(GDR), and taking counties as the basic units,this study quantitatively analyzed the WRCC and carrying status of the GDR under different water inflow conditions and policy constraints from 2010 to 2017. The study revealed three main trends.(1) From 2010 to 2017, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year, from 343700, 315900 and 291100 people to 458700, 415400 and 375600people in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively.(2) Under policy constraints, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year from 309400 people in 2010 to 412400 people in 2017. Based on future estimates, the WRCC of the GDR are expected to be 326600 people in 2020 and 341200 people in 2030.(3) From 2010 to 2017,the water resources carrying index of the GDR was decreasing, and it decreased from 1.05, 1.14 and 1.24 to 0.80,0.88 and 0.97 in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. The carrying status changed from critical overload to balanced. Although the WRCC and the carrying status of the GDR had significantly improved by 2017, the overall upper limit of the carrying capacity is not high. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources in the GDR.

Research on Land Resource Carrying Capacity:Progress and Prospects

As an important part of resource and environment carrying capacity（RECC）,land resource carrying capacity（LRCC） has focused on the limiting factors on regional development from the scale of land resources for more than two hundred years.After a brief review of the origin and early development of LRCC,the progress of LRCC is summarized as a progression from land resource population carrying capacity（LPCC） to land resource comprehensive carrying capacity（LCCC）,and the hot issues of LRCC have changed from the simple human–grain relationship to more complex social and economic activities–land resources relationships.The corresponding research methods also evolved,from static research to dynamic research,and the assessment factor have evolved from a single factor to a comprehensive index system.Agro-ecological zoning（AEZ）,system dynamics（SD）,ecological footprint（EF）,and comprehensive evaluation methods have come to be viewed as the most representative methods of LRCC in recent years.As a focus of conventional LRCC research,the human–grain relationship still plays a significant role in LRCC evaluation because grain remains the top limiting factor of land resources and is the most significant criterion in the balance between regional population and land resources,especially for very populous countries.More attention should be paid to the accurate calculation of arable land and average food consumption levels to improve the scientific basis of LRCC evaluation.The development of science and technology and the variation of lifestyle are also important factors that influence regional LRCC.As a new topic of LRCC,LCCC has expanded the research field of LRCC in an attempt to reveal the limiting effects of land resource under open systems,but some issues such as carrying mechanism research and the combination of theoretical and applied research are needed in future studies to promote the further development of LCCC.

Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Xilin Gol Grassland Transects: A Perspective on Food Nutritional Demand

Food safety is an important issue for the development of the national economy and society.Studying regional food supply and demand from the perspective of land resource carrying capacity can provide new references for regional resource sustainability.This study uses the data from farmer and herdsmen household questionnaires,statistical data,land use data,and other sources to construct a land resource carrying capacity(LCC)assessment framework,targeting the food supply and demand of residents in representative areas,specifically the typical grassland pastoral areas,sandy pastoral areas and agro-pastoral areas on the Xilin Gol grassland transects.The three food nutritional indicators of calories,protein and fat were selected for analyzing the balance of land resource carrying capacity.We found that:1)Along the Xilin Gol grassland,the main local food supply showed a shift from meat and milk to grains,vegetables and fruits.2)From north to south along the grassland transects,the calorie intake increased gradually,while the intake of protein and fat was highest in pastoral areas and lowest in agricultural areas.3)The overall land resource carrying capacity of the Xilin Gol grassland transects was in a surplus state,but the land carrying capacity of typical grassland pastoral area was higher than the two other types of areas.This study provides an empirical reference for the sustainable development of regional food nutrition.

Assessment of Geological Security and Integrated Assessment Geo-environmental Suitability in Worst-hit Areas in Wenchuan Quake

The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and geo-hazards triggered by the earthquake caused large injuries and deaths as well as destructive damage for infrastructures like construction, traffic and electricity. It is urgent to select relatively secure areas for townships and cities constructed in high mountainous regions with high magnitude earthquakes. This paper presents the basic thoughts, evaluation indices and evaluation methods of geological security evaluation, water and land resources security demonstration and integrated assessments of geo-environmental suitability for reconstruction in alp and ravine with high magnitude earthquakes, which are applied in the worst-hit areas （12 counties）. The integrated assessment shows that： （1） located in the Longmenshan fault zone, the evaluated area is of poor regional crust stability, in which the unstable and second unstable areas account for 79% of the total; （2） the geo-hazards susceptibility is high in the evaluation area. The spots of geo-hazards triggered by earthquake are mainly distributed along the active fault zone with higher distribution in the moderate and high mountains area, in which the areas of high and moderate susceptibility zoning accounts for 40.1% of the total; （3） geological security is poor in the evaluated area, in which the area of the unsuitable construction occupies 73.1%, whereas in the suitable construction area, the areas of geological security, second security and insecurity zoning account for 8.3 %, 9.3% and 9.3 % of the evaluated area respectively; （4） geo-environmentai suitability is poor in the evaluated area, in which the areas of suitability and basic suitability zoning account for 3.5% and 7.3% of the whole evaluation area.

Land development suitability analysis for transport planning evaluation and optimization in mountainous ecological region

Transportation planning is a critical component for creating an orderly,intensive,and sustainable pattern of land development.By comprehensively considering the potential and suitability of transport construction,a comprehensive method combining resources and environmental carrying capacity(RECC)and land development suitability(LDS)was developed by using techniques of GIS,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and threedimensional magic cube.Taking Aba prefecture in Sichuan Province of Southwest China as a case study,LDS for transportation was analyzed from three aspects,including overall planning layout,different transport modes,and transportation projects.The results showed that the transport planning scales of most counties in Aba were suitable,and the order of LDS of different transport modes was railway>highway=superhighway>tourism track,which already included 42 new transportation projects.We found that two counties(Maoxian County and Jiuzhaigou County)should improve the ecological protection level of transportation,in which the railway network construction should be encouraged,and some transportation projects with low LDS should be postponed or constructed harmlessly.We suggest the combination of RECC and LDS for transportation could enhance the territorial space optimization and sustainable transport construction.

流域国土空间水资源承载力评价及保护方法研究

量化测度水资源承载力并制定相应的水资源保护措施,对于区域国土空间可持续发展极为重要。运用DPSIR框架,评价了梁子湖流域的水资源承载力,并对评价结果进行空间落位。基于评价结果,使用FLUS模型模拟未来发展趋势,划定了区域国土空间功能优势区,并综合评价模拟结果,确定了梁子湖流域的水环境保护格局。从量化测度和情景模拟两个方面构建了一套切实可行的流域国土空间水资源保护规划技术路径,可为区域水资源保护目标导向下国土空间规划与生态保护提供参考。

基于陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价方法探讨

海洋、海岸带蕴含的资源丰富,与人类生存发展息息相关。近年来,随着海洋经济的迅速增长,自然岸线和滨海湿地面积减少、生物多样性降低、典型生态系统受损、近岸海域灾害频发、渔业资源减少等问题日益显现。如何从战略高度提升海洋经济,开发和保护并举,确保海岸带、海洋资源取用合理是新时代的重要课题。陆地和海洋是生态系统不可分割的组成部分,开展陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价是衡量区域经济发展与生态环境是否协调可持续发展的有效途径。文章系统地梳理了承载力概念的发展历程,对比了常用的海洋资源环境承载力评价方法,初步构建了陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价指标体系,并提出使用熵值法来确定指标权重,采用状态空间评价模型或TOPSIS模型进行承载力综合评价,可以体现陆地和海洋相互影响、相互制约的关系,并具有较强的可操作性,评价结果可以反映区域资源环境承载力的空间差异或随时间变化情况,能够为海洋和海岸带保护利用提供有效借鉴。

1998—2022年安徽土地资源承载力时空演变研究

基于1998—2022年的相关数据,通过耕地压力模型和土地资源承载力模型,分析安徽土地资源承载力的时空演变。结果表明:最小人均耕地面积整体呈下降趋势。耕地压力指数呈现波动下行的态势,从预警压力状态进入无压力状态。土地资源承载力指数总体下行,状态从人粮平衡区的平衡有余级升至粮食盈余区的富裕级。土地资源承载力指数则主要位于粮食盈余区和人粮平衡区,多市虽向好发展,但合肥、黄山等的状况持续恶化;各市土地资源承载力指数空间分布具有高值和低值集聚特征,土地资源承载力驱动因素按重要性由大及小依次为耕地面积、人均粮食占有量、城镇化率、地形位指数、农业水资源量。依据分析结果,应采取合理规划国土空间人口分布、转变耕地利用方式和构建与土地资源承载力相匹配的农业布局等措施,以促进土地资源承载力的可持续发展。