Investigation and Research on the Psychological Status of Children and Adolescents During the Epidemic Period of COVID-19

Objective:The paper was to analyze the investigation and study of the psychological status of children and adolescents during the epidemic period of COVID-19.Methods:From March 5th to 11th,2020,1766 students from 8 to 18 years old in Yan'an area were taken as the research objects,and the psychological characteristics of this group of people during the epidemic period of COVID-19 were analyzed by the online questionnaires.Results:In the questionnaire,all children and adolescents were in good psychological conditions,and they had not shown serious negative psychological emotions,and they attached great importance to COVID-19.Conclusion:The psychological changes of children and adolescents during the epidemic period of COVID-19 are diverse.Most children and adolescents have a good mental state,and a few have negative psychological emotions.It can strengthen the psychological management of children and adolescents during the epidemic,and promote the healthy growth of children and adolescents clinically.

Asymptotic Periodicity in the Fecally-Orally Epidemic Model in a Heterogeneous Environment

To understand the influence of seasonal periodicity and environmental heterogeneity on the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease, we consider asymptotic periodicity in the fecally-orally epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment. By using the next generation operator and the related eigenvalue problems, the basic reproduction number is introduced and shows that it plays an important role in the existence and non-existence of a positive T-periodic solution. The sufficient conditions for the existence and non-existence of a positive T-periodic solution are provided by applying upper and lower solutions method. Our results showed that the fecally-orally epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment admits at least one positive T-periodic solution if the basic reproduction number is greater than one, while no T-periodic solution exists if the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. By means of monotone iterative schemes, we construct the true positive solutions. The asymptotic behavior of periodic solutions is presented. To illustrate our theoretical results, some numerical simulations are given. The paper ends with some conclusions and future considerations.

The Effect of State-Dependent Control for an SIRS Epidemic Model with Varying Total Population

Based on the mechanism of prevention and control of infectious disease, we propose, in this paper, an SIRS epidemic model with varying total population size and state-dependent control, where the fraction of susceptible individuals in population is as the detection threshold value. By the Poincaré map, theory of differential inequalities and differential equation geometry, the existence and orbital stability of the disease-free periodic solution are discussed. Theoretical results show that by state-dependent pulse vaccination we can make the proportion of infected individuals tend to zero, and control the transmission of disease in population.

Effect of incubation period on epidemic spreading in complex networks

We study the effect of incubation period on epidemic spreading in the Barabasi-Albert scale-free network and the Watts-Strogatz small world network by using a Suspectable-Incubated-Infected-Suspectable model. Our analytical investigations show that the epidemic threshold is independent of incubation period in both networks, which is verified by our large-scale simulation results. We also investigate the effect of incubation period on the epidemic dynamics in a supercritical regime. It is found that with the increase of incubation period Ω, a damped oscillation evolution of ρT （the ratio of persons in incubated state） appears and the time needed to reach a saturation value increases. Moreover, the steady value of ρT increases and approaches to an asymptotic constant with the value of Ω increasing. As a result, the infected ratio ρI decreases with the increase of Ω according to a power law.

Do the Malawian Secondary School Pupils’ Perceived Needs in HIV/AIDS Education Provide an Initial Measure of the Effectiveness of the Curricula？ The Case of Zomba Urban Secondary Schools

The needs of young people in classroom based HIV/AIDS Education in Malawi, have been explored using questionnaires, interviews and document analysis. In contrast to previously reported literature on HIV/AIDS education in Malawi, the present study has drawn pupils’ needs directly from the pupils themselves, focussed on classroom practice, and triangulated the various data sets to give a comprehensive narrative of what pupils perceive to be their needs in HIV/AIDS education, and used the same to question the effectiveness of the HIV/AID curricula. Pupils identified the need for open discussion climates on HIV/AIDS issues despite a conservative cultural and religious adult world. They also identified a need for explicit and accurate knowledge on HIV/AIDS issues, opportunities to acquire behavioural skills for HIV prevention, and involvement of external speakers. The wealth of the pupils needs identified in this study suggests lack of effectiveness of the HIV/AIDS curricula. This suggestion however needs to be reinforced with data from classroom observations, teacher questionnaires, and interviews with teachers and education advisers in order to inform effective policy and practice.

STABILITY OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH CONSTANT RECRUITMENT AND A VARYING TOTAL POPULATION SIZE

This paper considers an SEIS epidemic model with infectious force in the latent period and a general population-size dependent contact rate. A threshold parameter R is identified. If R≤1, the disease-free equilibrium O is globally stable. If R〉1, there is a unique endemic equilibrium and O is unstable. For two important special cases of bilinear and standard incidence ,sufficient conditions for the global stability of this endemic equilibrium are given. The same qualitative results are obtained provided the threshold is more than unity for the corresponding SEIS model with no infectious force in the latent period. Some existing results are extended and improved.

Existence of Positive Periodic Solutions for the SIV Epidemic Model with Impulsive Vaccination and Infection-Age

In this paper, we discuss the SIV epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and infection-age. Bifurcation theory and Lyapunov-Schmidt series expansion are used to show the existence of the positive periodic solutions under some conditions.

Report on Childhood Obesity in China (4) Prevalence and Trends of Overweight and Obesity in Chinese Urban School-age Children and Adolescents, 1985-2000

Objective To describe the nationwide prevalence of childhood overweight/obesity, and their group variations and trends over the past 20 years in the Chinese urban population. Methods Data sets of boys and girls at the age of 7-18 years collected from the series of Chinese national surveillance on students＇ constitution and health （CNSSCH） between 1985 and 2000 were divided into five socioeconomic and demographic groups, while BMI classification reference proposed by Working Group on Obesity in China （WGOC） was used as screening reference to calculate the prevalence and trends of overweight/obesity in these groups. Results In 2000, the prevalence of obesity and overweight in boys aged 7-18 years was 11.3% and 6.5% in Beijing, 13.2% and 4.9% in Shanghai, 9.9% and 4.5% in coastal big cities, and 5.8% and 2.0% in coastal medium/small-sized cities, respectively, while the prevalence of of obesity and overweight in girls of the same age group was 8.2% and 3.7% in Beijing, 7.3% and 2.6% in Shanghai, 5.9% and 2.8% in coastal big cities, and 4.8% and 1.7% in coastal medium/small-sized cities, respectively. The prevalence of obesity was low in most of the inland cities at an early stage of epidemic overweight. The epidemic manifested a gradient distribution in groups, which was closely related to status （SES） of the study population. However, a dramatic and steady increasing trend was witnessed among all sex-age subgroups in the five urban groups, and such a trend was stronger in boys than in girls, and much stronger in children than in adolescents. Conclusion Although China is at an early stage of epidemic obesity by and large, the prevalence of obesity in her urban population, particularly in coastal big cities has reached the average level of developed countries. The increasing trend has been rapid since early 1990s, and the increments in obesity and overweight are exceptionally high. The prospect of epidemic obesity in China is in no way optimistic. Therefore, preventive program should be focused on the improvement of the balance between caloric intake and energy expenditure, and interventions aimed at changing children＇s life styles.

Increased Prevalence of Thyroid Nodules Across Nearly 10 Years in Shanghai,China

Objective This study aimed to determine whether the prevalence of thyroid nodules(TNs)increased due to modern lifestyles or other factors,despite the advances in screening and diagnostic tools.Methods This study included 3474 pairs of participants,who were matched by gender and age(±3 years)from two cross-sectional sampling surveys:(1)the program on the iodine nutritional status and related health status of residents in Shanghai in 2009;(2)the thyroid disease screening program for adults in Shanghai between 2017 and 2018.The prevalence of TNs and thyroid diseases in 2009 and 2017–2018 were compared,and the potential risk factors of TNs were detected.Results The prevalence of TNs in 2009 was 28.9%:22.5%in males and 34.5%in females.In 2017,this increased to 43.8%:37.9%in males and 49.1%in females.The prevalence of TNs significantly increased from 2009 to 2017(odds ratio,1.486;95%confidence interval,1.238–1.786).In addition,female gender,thyroid disease history,and age were the main risk factors for TNs after adjusting for confounders in the logistic regression across the time period.Conclusion The prevalence of TNs significantly increased across nearly 10 years in Shanghai.

Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misclassification

In this work, we developed a theoretical framework leading to misclassification of the final size epidemic data for the stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed), household epidemic model, with false negative and false positive misclassification probabilities. Maximum likelihood based algorithm is then employed for its inference. We then analyzed and compared the estimates of the two dimensional model with those of the three and four dimensional models associated with misclassified final size data over arrange of theoretical parameters, local and global infection rates and corresponding proportion infected in the permissible region, away from its boundaries and misclassification probabilities. The adequacies of the three models to the final size data are examined. The four and three-dimensional models are found to outperform the two dimensional model on misclassified final size data.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Informal Workers and National Policies in China

The impact of the epidemic on China's economy is huge.By analyzing the impact of the epidemic on the informal economy and consulting the measures taken by local governments in Sichuan to restore the stall economy in the post epidemic period,this paper classifies and refines the measures made by urban governments of different sizes of cities,puts forward relevant laws,and puts forward opinions and forecasts on the future trend of the stall economy and stall economy in the post epidemic period.Due to the impact of the epidemic,people's awareness of self-protection has increased,local governments have also strengthened prevention and control,and the business of vendors has been seriously affected.The Sichuan case shows that the government's encouragement is an important guarantee for the rapid recovery of the stall economy.At the same time,reasonable control is a necessary means to prevent the recurrence of the epidemic.For the future trend of the stall,it is a trend to set up permittedvending-places(shudaoqu).Selecting an address according to the nature of the commodity is the guarantee of sales.

基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系的建立

目的建立一套基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系,推动传染病管理水平的提升。方法通过搜集、整理最新的研究成果,参考相关的传染病预警评价指标体系的理论框架,构建基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系。结果本次研究共纳入了12名专家,筛选出了三个一级指标,涉及流行前期指标、典型症状期指标、非典型症状期指标等,同时涉及7个二级指标。体系的必要性平均得分为8.27±0.24分,可获得性平均得分为7.74±0.34分。结论基于风险评估模型的传染病预警体系的建立有利于当地及时掌握传染病流行趋势,并进行调查指标分布趋势分析,然后提出相应的预警方案,可为有效预防传染病提供相关的依据。

小麦条锈病跨区域全周期绿色防控技术体系的构建与应用

小麦条锈病是我国小麦生产上一种跨区域流行的重大病害。1949年以来,我国小麦条锈病研究,治理能力明显提升,发病面积、流行程度、流行频率明显降低,但由于条锈菌Puccinia striiformis f.sp.tritici新毒性小种不断产生和气候异常变化等因素的影响,近年来其流行规律和成灾机制出现了新的变化,发生危害加重,严重威胁小麦生产和国家粮食安全。基于“十二五”以来我国在小麦条锈病菌毒性新小种产生、有性生殖、侵染循环和大区流行规律等方面的最新研究成果,作者在学习和实践以往病害治理经验的基础上,坚持长短结合、标本兼治、分区治理、综合防治的指导思想,制定了“以绿色防控为基础,以全周期管理为重点,以跨区域联防联控为保障”的防控策略,提出了精准监测预报、毒性小种变异监测、早期菌源控制、抗病品种合理布局和应急防控等关键技术,集成构建了全国小麦条锈病跨区域全周期绿色防控技术体系,制定了越夏易变区、冬季繁殖区(越冬区)和春季流行区分区防控技术体系。经在小麦条锈病主要流行区大面积试验示范,取得了防控效果85%以上,化学农药用量减少10%以上,小麦单产提高5%以上的成效。2022年-2023年在全国小麦主产区大范围组织推广应用,有效控制了小麦条锈病严重流行势头,全国病害发生面积出现了新低,有效减轻了灾害损失,保障了国家粮食安全。

后疫情时期线上线下精准衔接的融合式教学模式的探索

随着信息化教学的发展,后疫情时期线上线下教学的衔接与融合势在必行。以成人护理学课程实践为例,以成果导向教育理论为指导,设计并实施线上线下精准衔接的融合式教学模式,并收集其应用反馈。通过课程实践发现,线上线下深度融合教学的必要性得到学生认可,可以形成优势互补,线上学习活动有助于提高课堂教学效果,同时将信息化手段嵌入线下课堂授课,有助于丰富课程的过程性评价。在后续护理学课程教学中,可以进一步验证线上线下融合式教学模式的应用效果,进而推动混合式教学新范式的形成,提高人才培养质量。

后疫情时期动物诊断学课程新形态教学改革探索

在我国高等教育“新农科”建设的新阶段、新形势下,为全面提高教学效果以及应对“后疫情时期”的教学需求,针对动物诊断学课程以往的教学实践中出现的若干问题,展开了一系列的教学改革探索。基于“新形态”教学的动物诊断学课程的教学效果及满意度得到了明显改善,满足了“后疫情时期”教学活动的顺利开展,能够更好地服务于推进动物医学专业“产-学-研-用”体系建设,并具备为行业、为社会培养更多目前急需的具有使命感、责任感的实践型、服务型专业人才的能力,最终服务于国家畜牧兽医产业、生态文明建设等领域的健康可持续发展。

灾后社会景气变动趋势:基于后疫情期的考察

灾后社会景气作为表征性因素,是实质性恢复重建工作中长期潜在的隐蔽公理,对于更好促进灾后恢复重建具有重要的社会意义。通过对原有文献中社会景气概念的修复性界定,指出它不仅仅是主观满意度和信心的问题,更涉及客观景象的整体状况。基于后疫情期主客观社会景气的案例,通过实证比较分析进行具体考察,从而揭示疫灾过后经济社会恢复发展和社会景气回升繁荣的艰难之因。在此基础上,提出加强灾后社会景气研究和监测分析,着眼于宏观、中观、微观层面促进灾后恢复重建和社会景气回升。

Periodic Solution and Ergodic Stationary Distribution of Stochastic SIRI Epidemic Systems with Nonlinear Perturbations

This paper formulates two stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic systems with nonlinear perturbations.The main aim of this study is to investigate stochastic dynamics of the two SIRI epidemic systems and obtain their thresholds.For the nonautonomous stochastic SIRI epidemic system with white noise,the authors provide analytic results regarding the stochastic boundedness,stochastic permanence and persistence in mean.Moreover,the authors prove that the system has at least one nontrivial positive T-periodic solution by using Lyapunov function and Hasminskii’s theory.For the system with Markov conversion,the authors establish sufficient conditions for positive recurrence and existence of ergodic stationary distribution.In addition,sufficient conditions for the extinction of disease are obtained.Finally,numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the main results.

基于行政管理数据识别慢性病发病病例背景下确定洗脱期时长最佳策略的系统综述

背景使用行政管理数据时,确立清晰、适当的慢性病洗脱期时长是正确确定反复就医的慢性病患者发病时点、确定新发病例的基础。目的通过系统文献回顾,综述确定洗脱期时长的方法,以期为我国研究者后续使用行政管理数据识别慢性病新发病例时确认洗脱期长短、正确识别新发病例提供思路。方法于2021年10月,系统检索PubMed、Web of Science、EmBase、中国知网、维普中文科技期刊全文数据库、万方知识服务平台,获取有关利用行政管理数据探究慢性病发病、患病情况的文献,检索时限均为建库至2022-10-01。由两名研究者独立筛选文献并提取相关信息,并采用定性研究报告评价标准(SRQR)评价文献方法学质量后,使用描述性分析法总结洗脱期时长的确定方法。结果共纳入26篇文献,纳入文献的SRQR评分均≥15分,方法学质量较好。文献所使用的数据主要来自加拿大、美国、澳大利亚等行政管理数据完整、丰富的国家(地区),聚焦的疾病包括糖尿病、肿瘤、精神分裂症等多种慢性病。研究指出,设定合适的洗脱期时长是准确识别发病病例的基础。目前,文献中确定洗脱期时长的方法主要包括直接限定法、一致性检验法和逆向生存函数法三大类,其中最常用的方法是直接限定法,逆向生存曲线法的使用率相对较低。结论直接限定法、一致性检验法和逆向生存函数法均有相应的优势和局限性,方法的选择标准、判断标准和稳定性有待进一步探究。

后疫情时期韧性卫生系统的挑战及建设策略

目的 了解国内外后疫情时期韧性卫生系统面临的现状,为建设我国高韧性卫生系统提出策略。方法 通过回顾国内外文献,总结国内外卫生系统韧性建设中所遭遇的瓶颈及挑战,对卫生系统的弱点与结构性缺陷进行深入分析,提出建议。结果 我国疫情时期韧性卫生系统面临卫生人力资源短缺、应急物资储备体系不完善、卫生筹资结构不合理、卫生信息系统资源冗杂、管理与合作能力不足、医疗卫生服务中断等问题,从卫生人力资源、医疗产品与技术、卫生筹资、卫生信息系统、领导与治理、医疗卫生服务为核心的卫生系统发展等方面对我国韧性卫生系统建设与管理提出建议。结论 在总结国内外后疫情时期卫生系统韧性的基础上,完善我国关于高韧性卫生系统的研究,对建立更加全面而有韧性的卫生服务模式具有重要意义。

妇女围受孕期服用营养补充剂与孕早期贫血的关系

目的了解北京市通州区妇女孕早期贫血患病率,评价围受孕期服用单纯叶酸片(PFA)或含叶酸的多种微量营养素补充剂(MMFA)与孕早期贫血的关系。方法以2013—2018年37034例在通州区妇幼保健院分娩妇女的孕期保健和孕早期血常规化验数据为基础进行研究,采用Logistic回归模型分析围受孕期PFA或MMFA服用情况与孕早期贫血的关系。结果妇女孕早期贫血患病率为1.8%,以轻度及小细胞低色素性贫血为主。与服用PFA妇女相比,服用MMFA者孕早期患贫血(aOR=0.79,95%CI:0.66~0.95)和小细胞低色素性贫血风险(aOR=0.69,95%CI:0.53~0.91)均更低。在服用MMFA的妇女中,孕前开始服用者较孕后开始服用者总贫血和小细胞低色素性贫血风险低,aOR分别为0.69(95%CI:0.53~0.90)和0.47(95%CI:0.30~0.75),且高频服用MMFA者较未服用者总贫血和小细胞低色素性贫血风险低,aOR分别为0.59(95%CI:0.41~0.86)和0.42(95%CI:0.23~0.76)。在服用MMFA的妇女中,孕前开始服用者血清铁水平更高(aβ=4.25,95%CI:1.70~6.80)。结论2013—2018年北京市通州区妇女孕早期贫血患病率较低。妇女围受孕期服用MMFA可降低孕早期贫血,尤其是小细胞低色素性贫血患病风险。