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Supervision of Public Opinion under the Background of Social Co-governance-Take the Changsheng Vaccine Incident as an Example
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作者 Ma Xiaonan Tian Lijuan 《Asian Journal of Social Pharmacy》 2023年第3期198-205,共8页
Objective To provide reference for the news media to give play to the role of public opinion supervision in time based on the background of drug safety and social co-governance.Methods The method of case analysis was ... Objective To provide reference for the news media to give play to the role of public opinion supervision in time based on the background of drug safety and social co-governance.Methods The method of case analysis was used to make a retrospective study on the Changsheng vaccine incident in 2018.Then the role of mainstream media,pharmaceutical media,and self-media in the supervision of public opinion was investigated.Results and Conclusion Both mainstream and pharmaceutical media played an excellent role in supervising the Changchun Changsheng vaccine incident.However,the content published by some pharmaceutical media was hard to understand by ordinary people.Besides,the role of self-media in public opinion supervision was polarized.Some self-media closely kept pace with mainstream media in public opinion supervision.Other self-media unilaterally pursued the click rate,publishing false information to guide wrong public opinion.The news media should optimize the supervision efficiency of drug safety.On the one hand,pharmaceutical media should pay attention to the fact that readers may not understand the difficult terms because they are not professional.On the other hand,self-media practitioners should improve their professional quality so that they will not publish some fake news to mislead public opinion. 展开更多
关键词 social co-governance Changchun Changsheng vaccine incident news media public opinion supervision
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Online Public Opinion Guidance Strategy for College Students in the Era of We Media
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作者 Yan Wu Yujiao Song +2 位作者 Fang Wang Yanying Zhou Mengshan Li 《Journal of Computer and Communications》 2019年第12期79-87,共9页
In the era of We Media, online public opinion in colleges and universities has become an important front of ideological and political, with some characteristics such as concealment, diversity and sensitivity, interact... In the era of We Media, online public opinion in colleges and universities has become an important front of ideological and political, with some characteristics such as concealment, diversity and sensitivity, interaction and immediacy of communication. It is urgent to carry out some researches about network public opinion analysis and guidance mechanism. It is a new challenge that the ideological and political education in colleges and universities, must face how to guide online public opinion effectively. The team building should be strengthened and the right of public opinion should be returned. The platform construction should be enriched, and it is important to give the chance to various media. Therefore, it should strengthen the mechanism construction, and public opinion guidance must be scientific and professional. Colleges and universities should build a clear network space from such aspects as the construction of network public opinion guidance institutions, the cultivation of opinion leaders, the perfection of early warning mechanism, the improvement of university network literacy and the guidance of campus media. 展开更多
关键词 COLLEGE Students We media ERA Network public opinion Early WARNING
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On the policy of mainstream media to enhance public opinion's guide and influence
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作者 Ying Sang 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2013年第9期31-33,共3页
关键词 舆论引导 流媒体 宣传工作 社会公正 改革创新 舆论环境 社会条件 社会舆论
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Social bots and mass media manipulated public opinion through dual opinion climate 被引量:1
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作者 程纯 罗云 +1 位作者 于长斌 丁卫平 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第1期686-691,共6页
Opinion dynamics models based on the multi-agent method commonly assume that interactions between individuals in a social network result in changes in their opinions.However,formation of public opinion in a social net... Opinion dynamics models based on the multi-agent method commonly assume that interactions between individuals in a social network result in changes in their opinions.However,formation of public opinion in a social network is a macroscopic statistical result of opinions of all expressive individuals(corresponding to silent individuals).Therefore,public opinion can be manipulated not only by changing individuals'opinions,but also by changing their states of expression(or silence)which can be interpreted as the phenomenon"spiral of silence"in social psychology.Based on this theory,we establish a"dual opinion climate"model,involving social bots and mass media through a multi-agent method,to describe mechanism for manipulation of public opinion in social networks.We find that both social bots(as local variables)and mass media(as a global variable)can interfere with the formation of public opinion,cause a significant superposition effect when they act in the same direction,and inhibit each other when they act in opposite directions. 展开更多
关键词 public opinion social bots mass media spiral of silence
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Supremacy of Social Media in the Hebron Shooting Incident
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作者 Yaron Katz 《Journalism and Mass Communication》 2018年第3期165-173,共9页
The controversy in the case of Elor Azaria,an Israeli soldier who shot a Palestinian assailant in the Palestinian city of Hebron,after he was wounded and neutralized,led to a highly emotional public debate threatening... The controversy in the case of Elor Azaria,an Israeli soldier who shot a Palestinian assailant in the Palestinian city of Hebron,after he was wounded and neutralized,led to a highly emotional public debate threatening a major crisis in the government and society.The incident divided the Israeli public and its leaders,with some expressing outrage over the killing of an incapacitated man,and others supporting even the most extreme response to a stabbing attack.The research argues that the role of governments in preventing exposure of security information was badly shaken following the inability to control information,as the incident was recorded on a mobile phone and uploaded to social media.As demonstrated in this case,local organizations have assumed a new prominence by providing information that previously had been limited by local authorities.The research is looking at the question of who was superior in the Hebron shooting incident:the army,the government,public opinion,traditional media or social media.The conclusions in this case are clear-cut:Social media dominated the entire process and determined its outcome,which was obvious once the video was uploaded on the Internet. 展开更多
关键词 social media Israel Hebron SHOOTING ARMY public opinion
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Research on the Coverage of the Belt and Road Initiative and a Community with Shared Future for Mankind by Mainstream Media in the United States--Taking the three major mainstream media in the United States as an example
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作者 Congjuan Yu Jing Yan 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2020年第8期72-78,共7页
Since China put forward the Belt and Road Initiative and a community with shared future for mankind,mainstream media in the United States such as The Washington Post,The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have... Since China put forward the Belt and Road Initiative and a community with shared future for mankind,mainstream media in the United States such as The Washington Post,The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have given continuous reports.As the world’s superpower,the United States has a developed media system and a wide range of influence.The study extracted 173 valid texts from May 2015 to March 2020,among which only 5 reports were on a community with shared future for mankind.American media mainly reported from five aspects including economy,politics,cultural,security and environment,although there is no lack of certain sounds,there was more negative reports.It can provide a reference basis for our accurate response and creating a positive international public opinion environment that grasping the reporting trends on the Belt and Road Initiative and a community with shared future for mankind accurately. 展开更多
关键词 the Belt and Road Initiative A community with shared future for mankind Mainstream media in the United States Research on public opinion
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A Sports Story and New Public Opinion Manufacturing System
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作者 李世森 《科技视界》 2013年第3期109-109,共1页
The vulgar culture case of A Simple Noodle Story exposes a lot of culture safety potentials: first, the traditional consensus propaganda in Chinese film devotes much attention to advertisement in earlier stage while l... The vulgar culture case of A Simple Noodle Story exposes a lot of culture safety potentials: first, the traditional consensus propaganda in Chinese film devotes much attention to advertisement in earlier stage while less importance to maintain public opinion; second, many innocent masses get lost to be used for creating public opinion; third, the famous academic scholars curry favor with the public with neutral comments; forth, the accumulate disadvantages in old consensus system can not be cured completely. The advanced culture theory in China shoulders heavy responsibilities. 展开更多
关键词 英语学习 学习方法 阅读知识 阅读材料
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Role of Media Coverage in Keeping Lid on Government Expenses
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作者 张琦 步丹璐 郁智 《China Economist》 2016年第6期110-122,共13页
Information monopoly of bureaucrats helps them maximize discretionary budget. Public disclosure of budget can alleviate information asymmetry between government and the public and empower public supervision on governm... Information monopoly of bureaucrats helps them maximize discretionary budget. Public disclosure of budget can alleviate information asymmetry between government and the public and empower public supervision on government budget. With information intermediary function and reputational governance function, the media exert a budget intervention effect in the public disclosure of government budget, which further increases the effect of government budget disclosure. This paper investigates how media reports influence "three public expenses"(TPE) budget planning of central government departments by examining media reports on the disclosure of budget and final accounts and using TPE budget as a proxy variable for discretionary budget of bureaucrats. We have reached the following findings:(1) The higher the TPE budget implementation rate, the greater budget growth will be. But this correlation can be restrained by media attention;(2) Different stance of the media may exert different governance effects on TPE budget. Good news about TPE may motivate bureaucrats to restrain the positive impact of TPE budget implementation on budget growth. However, bad news about TPE will exert its budget intervention effect only when administrative governance mechanism intervenes. This study has broadened research on the media's governance effect from the perspective of government budget transparency and verified that under China's unique institutional background, the media may still play a positive role in public sector governance. 展开更多
关键词 media attention stance of media report public opinion environment "three public expenses" budget
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The Main Responsibility and Reinforcement Strategy of Government in Emergency Communication Management
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作者 HU Xiao-juan 《Journalism and Mass Communication》 2019年第5期243-247,共5页
In modern state management system,“as the provider of public services,the maker of public policies,the manager of public affairs and the executor of public power,the government has the obligation to assume the main r... In modern state management system,“as the provider of public services,the maker of public policies,the manager of public affairs and the executor of public power,the government has the obligation to assume the main responsibility in emergencies”(Wang,2010).China’s Constitution,Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China,and other laws have clarified the legal responsibility of the government in emergency response.The degree and effect of the government’s responsibility fulfillment determine whether emergency response successes or not.The government should fully fulfill its responsibility in emergency communication and management,innovate social governance,guarantee the right to know,strengthen public opinion guidance,and improve the ability to deal with the media. 展开更多
关键词 EMERGENCY GOVERNMENT media the right to KNOW public opinion guidance
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考虑用户感知和媒体干预的舆情演化模型
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作者 袁健 孙煜 +2 位作者 陈佳钦 潘杰忠 赵逢禹 《小型微型计算机系统》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第8期1800-1807,共8页
公共群体事件会因其较强的社会性和影响力引起公众的广泛关注和讨论,因此构建准确的公共群体事件舆情演化模型对有关部门进行决策有重大参考价值.针对社交网络中舆情传播受到用户亲密度、信息强化效应以及媒体干预强度等影响的情况,本... 公共群体事件会因其较强的社会性和影响力引起公众的广泛关注和讨论,因此构建准确的公共群体事件舆情演化模型对有关部门进行决策有重大参考价值.针对社交网络中舆情传播受到用户亲密度、信息强化效应以及媒体干预强度等影响的情况,本文基于经典的传染病SIR模型,引入相邻节点亲密度概率函数,考虑多次相同信息刺激下的信息强化效应并将媒体干预作用抽象为不同干预系数,建立了三组用户状态转移的非一致性函数,提出了考虑用户感知和媒体干预的舆情演化模型.对该模型进行仿真实验,研究三种因素对舆情传播的影响,并与其他传播动力学模型对比,研究结果表明在用户亲密度和信息强化效应的作用下,舆情规模更大.最后本文以两起舆情事件为例,将本文提出的POEUPMI模型与其他模型相比,预测值与真实数据相比误差更小,准确性和精确度都有了明显提高. 展开更多
关键词 舆情演化 信息强化效应 媒体干预 好友亲密度
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构建新媒体环境下舆论控制的新模式——基于微博舆情事件控制的案例分析
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作者 赖庆梅 《宜春学院学报》 2024年第5期36-39,54,共5页
新媒体环境下,新闻传播模式由单向式的传播变成多维、立体、几何式的传播,导致媒体格局、传播模式以及舆论生态与传统媒体环境下新闻传播不同,新闻舆论工作面临新的挑战。以微博热点为例,对几个典型舆论案例进行分析。针对新媒体环境下... 新媒体环境下,新闻传播模式由单向式的传播变成多维、立体、几何式的传播,导致媒体格局、传播模式以及舆论生态与传统媒体环境下新闻传播不同,新闻舆论工作面临新的挑战。以微博热点为例,对几个典型舆论案例进行分析。针对新媒体环境下微博舆论传播的特点及现实困境,从舆论主体、舆论话语权掌握、舆论传播渠道、舆论传播环境四个方面出发,建构“回应—引导—联动—法治”微博的舆论控制新模式。 展开更多
关键词 新媒体 微博 舆论控制
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场域理论视角下高校网络舆情治理的防范困境与实践进路
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作者 谢婷婷 程勇杰 《河南科技学院学报(社会科学版)》 2024年第6期41-49,共9页
作为意识形态工作的前沿阵地,高校肩负着培育时代新人的重大使命,是国内外各种社会思潮交锋和与西方敌对势力争夺青年一代的重要场所。在场域理论视角下,针对网络舆情治理面临的场域壁垒下的治理角色转化、资本制约下的治理权力更迭和... 作为意识形态工作的前沿阵地,高校肩负着培育时代新人的重大使命,是国内外各种社会思潮交锋和与西方敌对势力争夺青年一代的重要场所。在场域理论视角下,针对网络舆情治理面临的场域壁垒下的治理角色转化、资本制约下的治理权力更迭和惯习固化下的治理手段改变等危机风险,高校需在初始传播阶段建立健全舆情监测机制,构建动因性应对机制;在爆发扩散阶段强化精准研判控制局势,构建资源性保障机制;在逐渐消退阶段加强社会各界沟通协作,构建进路性导引机制。 展开更多
关键词 场域理论 融媒体 网络舆情 高校治理
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新媒体平台中警察执法短视频传播:问题与改进——以抖音为例
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作者 刘龙 徐广城 《北京警察学院学报》 2024年第3期73-80,共8页
近年来,警察执法短视频在以抖音为代表的新媒体视讯视频平台中大量流传并不时成为社会关注焦点,这给公安工作带来新机遇与新挑战。在开创公安普法与犯罪预防宣传新渠道的同时,个别警察执法短视频在新媒体平台传播中所暴露出的问题也给... 近年来,警察执法短视频在以抖音为代表的新媒体视讯视频平台中大量流传并不时成为社会关注焦点,这给公安工作带来新机遇与新挑战。在开创公安普法与犯罪预防宣传新渠道的同时,个别警察执法短视频在新媒体平台传播中所暴露出的问题也给公安形象带来了消极影响。研究发现,警察执法短视频中当事人合法个人隐私保护有待加强,警察执法短视频评论区留言缺乏积极的舆论引导,个别警察执法短视频中因关键信息缺失导致民众误解,个别民警执法行为不当引发舆论危机。为此,各级公安机关在警察执法短视频制作与传播中应依法保护当事人的合法隐私免受媒体传播侵害,主动加强警察执法短视频传播中的相关舆情引导,提高警察执法短视频专业制作水准,规范与完善警察执法短视频制作与发布制度,增强民警镜头下依法、合理、得当使用警务技战术的实战能力,以推进公安机关执法规范化与自身形象建设,契合新时代公安工作的新要求。 展开更多
关键词 警察执法 短视频 新媒体平台 抖音 舆情引导
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跨社交媒体舆情风险感知:理论框架的构建与实现
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作者 王丹 刘富康 陆伟 《情报学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期446-456,共11页
社交媒体间的摇摆和迁徙使网民获取信息的方式更加复杂多样,提高舆情传播效率的同时,也加速了舆情风险的生成和演化,及时捕捉和预测网络舆情风险对维护网络安全至关重要。目前,舆情风险的感知对象主要侧重于单一社交媒体,对跨社交媒体... 社交媒体间的摇摆和迁徙使网民获取信息的方式更加复杂多样,提高舆情传播效率的同时,也加速了舆情风险的生成和演化,及时捕捉和预测网络舆情风险对维护网络安全至关重要。目前,舆情风险的感知对象主要侧重于单一社交媒体,对跨社交媒体舆情风险感知的理论框架构建及实现仍然存在拓展空间。因此,本研究通过分析跨社交媒体舆情风险的传播特征,系统构建了跨社交媒体舆情风险感知框架,具体包括三个阶段:单一媒体异常舆情识别、跨社交媒体舆情风险研判以及跨社交媒体舆情风险预测。通过构建不同阶段指标体系及数据关联挖掘,实现了跨社交媒体风险舆情的识别、研判与预测。不仅能够拓宽舆情风险感知的研究视角、丰富舆情风险理论体系,而且能够强化社交媒体赋能舆情风险治理的协同作用,有利于提高舆情风险防控水平。 展开更多
关键词 社交媒体 舆情风险 风险感知 跨社交媒体
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社交机器人对社会舆论的影响因素研究
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作者 许灵毓 钟义信 陈志成 《智能系统学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期122-131,共10页
近年来,社交机器人已经成为人工智能领域的一个最新的研究方向。由于新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、英国脱欧等一系列重大事件中,社交机器人对公众舆论产生了重要影响,学界对社交机器人的关注度日渐升高。本文提出了基于社交机器人的社会舆论形... 近年来,社交机器人已经成为人工智能领域的一个最新的研究方向。由于新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、英国脱欧等一系列重大事件中,社交机器人对公众舆论产生了重要影响,学界对社交机器人的关注度日渐升高。本文提出了基于社交机器人的社会舆论形成过程模型,分为舆论出现、争夺影响力、舆论形成3个阶段,社交机器人可以在3个阶段介入和影响。研究了社交机器人的级联效应、工作原理、影响因素,指出媒体类型、事件模糊性和争议性、受众群体等均是影响社会舆论的主要因素。调查问卷实验与案例分析表明:社交机器人对信息传播速度、网民意见/倾向的形成等具有显著影响,实验数据对今后研究具有重要参考意义。 展开更多
关键词 社交机器人 社会舆论 公众媒体 舆论影响 影响因素 人工智能 社交媒体 舆论形成机制
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社交网络舆情多模态知识图谱构建框架研究 被引量:1
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作者 何巍 《情报杂志》 北大核心 2024年第1期160-166,共7页
[研究目的]信息技术的发展丰富了社交媒体用户的沟通交流方式,研究社交网络舆情多模态知识图谱的构建对网络舆情治理具有重要的现实意义。[研究方法]基于多模态数据的语义互补,讨论了实体属性关联、图像(视频)文字描述、图像(视频)属性... [研究目的]信息技术的发展丰富了社交媒体用户的沟通交流方式,研究社交网络舆情多模态知识图谱的构建对网络舆情治理具有重要的现实意义。[研究方法]基于多模态数据的语义互补,讨论了实体属性关联、图像(视频)文字描述、图像(视频)属性、图像(视频)关联等多种异构数据融合方式。在此基础上,提出社交网络舆情多模态知识图谱的构建框架,并分析了在多模态语义理解、多模态实体对齐、多模态知识表示等方面存在的问题与挑战。[研究结论]提出基于多模态知识融合的社交网络舆情多模态知识图谱构建框架,为交互方式日趋丰富的社交网络舆情治理提供有益参考。 展开更多
关键词 社交媒体 多模态 多模态知识图谱 多模态数据 网络舆情 舆情治理 情感分析
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新型主流媒体价值引领的理蕴探究与建构路径 被引量:2
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作者 吴林龙 肖一笑 《中北大学学报(社会科学版)》 2024年第1期75-81,共7页
在党和国家高度重视媒体融合与积极壮大主流舆论阵地的背景下,推动主流媒体转型升级并强化其价值引领具有迫切性。新型主流媒体价值引领因其本质之“新”而具有生命力,因其力量之“新”而具有吸引力。新型主流媒体价值引领具有丰富的新... 在党和国家高度重视媒体融合与积极壮大主流舆论阵地的背景下,推动主流媒体转型升级并强化其价值引领具有迫切性。新型主流媒体价值引领因其本质之“新”而具有生命力,因其力量之“新”而具有吸引力。新型主流媒体价值引领具有丰富的新本质规定的同时,还展现出新的强大引领力量即新传播力、新引导力、新影响力、新公信力。结合新型主流媒体价值引领的本质规定和强大力量,立足当前,构建新型主流媒体价值引领的实践路径:注重深度融合,推动主流媒体转型升级;强化主体效能,构建主体之间良性互动;创新内容生产,壮大主流舆论阵地。 展开更多
关键词 新型主流媒体 价值引领 媒体融合 思想共识 主流舆论
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“一带一路”议题全球舆论话语图景与中国应对--基于2013-2023年全球社交媒体平台X的大数据研究
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作者 申楠 苏怡丹 马凯 《情报杂志》 北大核心 2024年第6期153-159,共7页
[研究目的]国际社交媒体反映全球民间舆论。通过分析X(原Twitter)平台上“一带一路”相关推文,了解国际舆论对该议题的态度和反应,以提出中国应对策略。[研究方法]基于数字媒体分析方法,对近十年的相关推文进行情感分析、主题分析和社... [研究目的]国际社交媒体反映全球民间舆论。通过分析X(原Twitter)平台上“一带一路”相关推文,了解国际舆论对该议题的态度和反应,以提出中国应对策略。[研究方法]基于数字媒体分析方法,对近十年的相关推文进行情感分析、主题分析和社会网络分析。[研究结论]发现X平台关于“一带一路”议题的舆情的三大现状,即;关注度高,受主要相关事件影响;情感波动显著,西方主流媒体叠加负面议题;中、英文推文场域相互溢出,中国主流媒体舆论引导力不足。基于此提出三个对策,即:强化舆情风险预测,提前制定应对方案;及时回应外部关切,强化沟通与危机管理;积极设置话题,强化舆论引导与议题塑造。 展开更多
关键词 “一带一路” 社交媒体 舆论 情感分析 主题挖掘 社会网络分析
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复杂新媒体环境中舆论导向的困境、技巧和方向
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作者 李明德 《新媒体与网络》 2024年第1期19-31,共13页
舆论导向具有决定国家政治方向、社会大局稳定、人民根本利益的极端重要性。作为一种社会需求,舆论导向涵盖导向者的社会需求和受众的社会需求两个基本向度。导向者以被导向者为前提,并依赖于其存在,忽视被导向者所处的境遇、面临的问... 舆论导向具有决定国家政治方向、社会大局稳定、人民根本利益的极端重要性。作为一种社会需求,舆论导向涵盖导向者的社会需求和受众的社会需求两个基本向度。导向者以被导向者为前提,并依赖于其存在,忽视被导向者所处的境遇、面临的问题、需要帮助的导向,无法发挥导向作用。当前,新媒体构成要素的复杂性决定了新媒体环境的复杂性,其中的舆论较传统媒介场景中的舆论具有突发性、易变性、对抗性等特殊表征,这一方面源于舆论天然的复杂性,另一方面由新媒体环境中舆论传播链的开放性和新媒体应用场景、覆盖范围的开放性所致,归根结底是舆论生产与传播的动机出现了复杂化趋向。将复杂问题简单化处理、简单问题复杂化考量催生的“单向度舆论”“即兴式舆论”等情绪化舆论,把复杂舆论简单化引导、简单舆论复杂化导向引发的导向失灵现象,以及新媒体语境中广泛存在的社会需求,印证了复杂新媒体环境中舆论的必导性与可导性。鉴于此,舆论导向要承认、正视、适应这种复杂性,置身其中但不为喧嚣所迷惑,坚持尊重、公正、理解、互动、诚信,只有这样,导向者的导向行为才能赢得受众支持。由此而言,着眼社会需求、以人为本的导向,理应得到更多人的认可和推崇。 展开更多
关键词 新媒体 新媒体环境 舆论 舆论导向
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重大自然灾害事件中全媒体舆情风险防范的共意机制建构--以K396次列车洪灾脱险事件为例
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作者 毕宏音 闵玉丹 《情报杂志》 北大核心 2024年第6期160-166,共7页
[研究目的]超时空泛在的全媒体放大了重大自然灾害事件中的舆情风险。研究旨在探究该类舆情由危转机的机理,荟聚舆情支持力量,进而提升应急管理效能。[研究方法]以K396次列车脱险过程的舆论演进势态为研究对象,依托全形态大数据挖掘和... [研究目的]超时空泛在的全媒体放大了重大自然灾害事件中的舆情风险。研究旨在探究该类舆情由危转机的机理,荟聚舆情支持力量,进而提升应急管理效能。[研究方法]以K396次列车脱险过程的舆论演进势态为研究对象,依托全形态大数据挖掘和可视化分析技术,对舆情事件演化过程进行精准描摹。基于建构主义理论,立足“要素-机制”系统分析框架,厘清“整合性共意”机制中的多元主体要素、互动关系和运行链条。[研究结论]透过重大突发自然灾害事件中舆情危机向舆情支持的个案演变过程,洞见到各司其职、共同参与的国家管理者、民众、新闻媒体和专家学者,通过“刺激发生-汇集分析-接触交流-互动回应-共意建构-决策引导”六环节,不断推动着整合性共意机制的协调运转。该研究为构筑全媒体环境下共建共治共享的国家应急管理体系提供了实践模式和理论参考。 展开更多
关键词 重大自然灾害事件 全媒体 舆情危机 舆情支持 舆情治理 整合性共意 建构主义理论
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