Impact of material and energy flow variation-based iron /steel ratio on production cost

This paper establishes a model for the production cost of iron and steel enterprise.The variation rule of the production cost versus the iron/steel ratio for two cases, namely,fixed steel production and a fixed amount of molten iron,is analyzed,and the concept of a steel scrap threshold price is proposed.According to the analysis results,when the steel scrap unit price exceeds the steel scrap threshold price, an increase in the iron/steel ratio can reduce the production cost,and vice versa.When the gap between the steel scrap unit price and the steel scrap threshold price is relatively large, the impact of the iron/steel ratio on the production cost is more prominent.According to the calculation example,when steel production is fixed （284 358 t/month）and the steel scrap unit price is 263.2 yuan/t more than the steel scrap threshold price,an increase of 0.01 in the iron/steel ratio causes a monthly production cost reduction of approximately 750 000 yuan （2.63 yuan/t）.When the amount of molten iron is fixed （270 425 t/month）and the steel scrap unit price is 140.7 yuan/t more than the threshold price,an increase of 0.01 in the iron/steel ratio causes a monthly production cost reduction of approximately 430 000 yuan （1.5 yuan/t）.The results indicate that iron and steel enterprise should adjust the production strategy in time when the scrap price fluctuates, and then the production cost will be reduced.

THE BENCHMARK LAND PRICE SYSTEM AND URBANLAND USE EFFICIENCY IN CHINA

ABSTRACT: China began to introduce market principles and establish price mechanism to better manage land and improve land use efficiency in the late 1980s. Since then, land markets begin to emerge. A benchmark land price system, providing guidelines for land use rights selling and transferring, was established in order to overcome lack of market data and experiences in land transaction. The benchmark prices of land use rights are determined by land use, land use density (floor-land ratio), land grades, land improvement, and tenant resettlement costs. This paper first conducts a formal analysis based on modern urban economic theory. The formal model provides a theoretical foundation in which the benchmark land price system is assessed and evaluated in terms of land use and urban development. The paper then concludes that the benchmark price system has two theoretical problems. One is associated with the fact that floor-land ratio plays an important role in land price determination whereas the theory suggests the other way around. That is, floor-land ratio depends on land prices. The other problem is that the benchmark land price system does not provide adequate room for the substitution between land and capital inputs. The substitution is a key in achieving land use efficiency in land markets and urban development process. It is concluded that the practice of the benchmark land price system is at odd with reforms that aim to introduce market principles and mechanism to guide resource uses. Therefore, it is recommended that further land policy reform should be taken.

The Impact of Water Price on the Financial Sustainability of the Palestinian Water Service Providers

The impactof water sales price on the performance of water service providers is typically something of a mystery. High prices mean more revenue and profit;but it may lead to less bills collection and encourage the illegal connections. Yet, this argument has not been fully addressed in the Palestinian water sector;this research evaluates the effect of average water prices on the financial sustainability key indicators as collection efficiency, profit or loss percentage, non-revenue water, staff productivity, daily consumption, operating, and maintenance cost. The average price of cubic meter sold is segmented into low, medium, and high categories. Multivariate analysis shows that there are significant differences in profit or working ratio, daily consumption, and operating cost based on the different price categories. Further significant differences have been found in non-revenue water, collection efficiency, and water production based on low and high price categories. On the other hand, no significant difference has been found in staff productivity. The results show high price set by Palestinian water providers, leads to an increase in the bill collection rate and profit margin. However, negative relationship has been found between the price on one hand, and non-revenue water, average daily consumption, and water production on the other hand. The implication of these findings reveal that the Palestinian water providers should increase water prices gradually to cover operating and maintenance cost for better financial performance and sustainability.

Market Regulation and Fiscal Replenishment: An Analytical Framework for the Space Control Intensity for Regulatory Detailed Planning

Regulatory detailed planning is the most direct management tool for urban development and construction activities. Through theoretical deduction, this paper demonstrated the elastic relationship between the land-transferring price and the floor area ratio(FAR) of residential land, which represented the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning. Based on the two dimensions of market regulation and fiscal replenishment, this paper also established an analytical framework for the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning. The results showed that the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning decreased with the expansion of urban scale and that the weaker the market regulation and the stronger the land finance dependence, the weaker the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning. Based on this, this paper proposed that local governments should strengthen the scientificity and openness of regulatory detailed planning, institutionally resolve the predicament due to fiscal decentralization, and reduce the dependence on land transfer income.

Different Methods to Estimating the Cost of Equity: An Analysis on a Sample of Too Big to Fail Banks

In this study, a comparison was made between the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the most widely used methodology, and an actuarial method with the use of credit default swaps (CDSs) and the method based on the inverse of the multiple P/E. These three models are used to estimate the cost of equity. The comparison was made on a sample of 24 banks selected among the largest for assets in the world (too big to fail banks) belonging to 11 different countries. The results show that the CAPM estimates a premium for the higher risk than the one obtained with the actuarial method and the method based on the inverse of the P/E (except for 2013).

Deflation and Stock Prices

While the literature on inflation and stock prices is plentiful,there is little literature on deflation and stock prices.This paper explores the empirical data and makes a theoretical analysis of the likely impact on stock prices when expectations change from inflation to deflation.Deflation has a bad name among some economists and most investors.However,from a stock market perspective,deflations’bad name may not be well-deserved.Several observations support this:1)The 1930s was a statistical outlier and not representative for a deflationary period and deflation does not seem to create recessions,causality goes the other way;2)real stock returns are positive and around average in the periods leading up to and following the onset of deflation;3)when moving from low inflation to mild deflation,P/E ratios are virtually unchanged;and 4)peak P/E ratios seem to be reached at inflation rates close to zero.The author proposes three possible explanations for the seemingly disconnect between the empirical data and the“default”ex ante belief of most economists and investors:availability heurist,deflation illusion,and tax related issues in connection with the tax hypothesis.

Optimal Pole Ratio of Spoke-type Permanent Magnet Vernier Machines for Direct-drive Applications

Due to magnetic gearing effects,spoke-type permanent magnet vernier machines(ST-PMVMs)have the merit of high torque density,where an extra torque amplification coefficient,i.e.,pole ratio(the pole-pair ratio of PMs to armature windings)is introduced.However,different from surface-mounted PMVM,the variation of torque against pole ratio in ST-PMVMs is non-linear,which is increased at first and then decreased.This article is devoted to identify the optimal pole ratio of ST-PMVMs by equivalent magnetic circuit model.It is found that except the Prth air-gap magnetomotive force(MMF)harmonic having the same pole-pair of PM,the Path air-gap MMF harmonic having the same pole-pair of armature winding is also induced due to the modulation of doubly salient air-gap structure.The Prth MMF harmonic produces positive torque,while Path MMF harmonic produces negative torque.With the increase of pole ratio,the proportion of Path MMF harmonic as well as negative torque is increased,which reduces the advantages of high pole ratio coefficient.Further,the influence of dimension parameters on the performance of ST-PMVMs under different pole ratio are investigated.Results show that ST-PMVMs with pole ratio 2.6 have high torque density,low cogging torque and high power factor simultaneously.Finally,a prototype is manufactured to validate the analysis.

Exploring the growth value equity valuation model with data visualization

The Growth Value Model(GVM)proposed theoretical closed form formulas consist-ing of Return on Equity(ROE)and the Price-to-Book value ratio(P/B)for fair stock prices and expected rates of return.Although regression analysis can be employed to verify these theoretical closed form formulas,they cannot be explored by classical quintile or decile sorting approaches with intuition due to the essence of multi-factors and dynamical processes.This article uses visualization techniques to help intuitively explore GVM.The discerning findings and contributions of this paper is that we put forward the concept of the smart frontier,which can be regarded as the reasonable lower limit of P/B at a specific ROE by exploring fair P/B with ROE-P/B 2D dynamical process visualization.The coefficients in the formula can be determined by the quantile regression analysis with market data.The moving paths of the ROE and P/B in the cur-rent quarter and the subsequent quarters show that the portfolios at the lower right of the curve approaches this curve and stagnates here after the portfolios are formed.Furthermore,exploring expected rates of return with ROE-P/B-Return 3D dynamical process visualization,the results show that the data outside of the lower right edge of the“smart frontier”has positive quarterly return rates not only in the t+1 quarter but also in the t+2 quarter.The farther away the data in the t quarter is from the“smart frontier”,the larger the return rates in the t+1 and t+2 quarter.

地方政府债务对城镇化的影响机制及中介效应

地方政府债务扩张是我国政府主导、投资驱动型传统城镇化模式的重要动能和必然表现。然而,当前地方债问题日益显现,地方城投平台高杠杆主导城镇化模式亟待转型。基于2002-2020年全国31个省份数据,运用个体固定效应与工具变量模型,实证分析地方政府债务对新型城镇化的影响机制及中介效应和调节效应后发现:地方债扩张对城镇化产生先促进再抑制的非线性影响,债务扩张初期有利于完善城市基础设施和促进就业,但后期资本效率下降和对私人投资的挤出凸显;地方债通过抬高房价-收入比、刺激固定资产投资进而促进城镇化;老龄化程度越高的地方政府越倾向通过债务扩张拉动城镇化;但是服务业就业会减缓地方债对城镇化的促进效果。因此,高城镇化水平区域要更加严控地方政府债务规模,约束地方城投公司行为,地方财政支出更多偏向养老支持、住房保障等普惠性公共服务,发挥第三产业就业对城镇化作用。

客户信息技术能力对审计定价的影响

文章以我国A股上市公司2010-2020年的17 414个面板数据作为样本,探究客户信息技术能力对审计定价的作用机理。实证结果表明:国有企业客户信息技术能力负向影响审计定价,而非国有企业客户信息技术能力正向影响审计定价;相对于本土小规模会计师事务所,国际“四大”会计师事务所能够更好地适应客户信息技术能力的增长,两者间的正相关关系不显著;客户信息能力对审计定价的正相关作用主要体现在审计限价放开后的时期以及规模较小的公司。

新房价格底部特征分析及政策建议

判断房价的趋势和拐点,是房地产市场研究的重点和难点,需要找到关键的分析指标。主要发达国家房地产市场发展历程表明,房价收入比的低点通常是房价的低点,房贷利率连续大幅下调会促进房价企稳,租金回报率超过无风险利率时房价触底支撑增强,购房意愿度最低时往往也是房价筑底的时候。我国在2008—2009年和2014—2015年经历过两次房价下行,房价筑底时房价收入比、个人住房贷款利率、租金回报率与无风险利率的利差、购房者预期四个指标均表现出了与国际市场相似的特征。本轮始于2021年下半年的房地产市场下行,是时间最长、房价调整幅度最大的一次。用房价收入比等四个指标判断,当前新房价格已呈现明显的底部特征。建议重视解决房企资金紧张问题,优化住房供给结构,降低居民改善置换成本,促进房地产市场尽快回稳。

房地产信贷与住房可支付性

本文使用2010—2022年中国135个城市房地产信贷、房价、房租以及家庭收入与消费数据,考察房地产信贷对住房可支付性影响。实证研究发现,城市房地产开发贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比越低;城市住房抵押贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比与房租收入比越高;房地产信贷对房价可支付性的影响大于房租可支付性;房地产开发贷款提高城市中等收入者住房可支付性,但住房抵押贷款降低城市中等收入者住房可支付性。因此,住房信贷政策应主要解决城市中等收入者房价可支付问题而非房租可支付问题。

中心城市科技创新能促进城市群协调发展吗?——兼论收入房价比的调节作用

利用2007—2019年127个地级市的数据,系统检验了中心城市科技创新对城市群协调发展的影响机制,并讨论了收入房价比对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:第一,中心城市科技创新水平的提高不仅显著促进了城市群协调发展,还加快了外围城市经济增长收敛,并在不同地区和不同发展阶段的城市群表现出明显的异质性。第二,中心城市科技创新通过深化产业分工促进城市群协调发展。第三,收入房价比能够调节中心城市科技创新与城市群协调发展之间的关系,但调节效果存在区域异质性,仅在中部地区显著增强了中心城市科技创新对城市群协调发展的促进作用,对东部和西部地区没有明显的调节作用。研究结论不仅丰富了中心城市科技创新影响城市群协调发展的理论研究,且在提高收入房价比方面提供了政策启示。

成品油“期货稳价订单”模式的套期保值效率研究——以柴油和汽油为例

“期货稳价订单”模式对于稳定能源化工产业链的大宗商品价格、保障能源化工供应链安全具有重要意义。研究“期货稳价订单”模式下的上海原油期货和柴油、汽油产品的跨品种套期保值效率,以2018年9月到2022年7月上海原油期货价格和柴油、汽油现货价格为样本,使用OLS、B-VAR、ECM、BEKK-GARCH模型计算套期保值效率,得到最优套期保值比率。研究发现,风险管理子公司可以通过参与“期货稳价订单”降低风险;柴油、汽油日数据中基于BEKK-GARCH模型计算得出的动态套期保值比率效果最优,周度、月度数据中基于OLS模型的效果最优;套期保值效率随着样本期限的拉长会逐渐提高,套期保值期限管理是降低成品油价格波动风险的重要渠道;通过汽油和柴油的对比研究,增强了回归结果的可信度,为该模式未来扩充油气业务品种提供了参考依据。

低载波比下基于状态反馈和大林算法的永磁同步电机高性能电流控制策略

受到功率器件开关频率的限制,高速永磁同步电机驱动系统通常需要低载波比运行,此时系统延时相对很大,对电流环设计要求很高。常规在连续域设计的复矢量PI控制器由于离散化实现存在误差,dq轴解耦不完全,而且扰动传递函数包含电机自身低阻尼比极点,使系统抗干扰能力差,尤其是负基波频率附近的扰动。因此,文中提出状态反馈大林控制算法。首先,利用延时环节电压进行反馈来使系统完全解耦;然后,通过输出电流反馈提升系统阻尼来抑制扰动;最后,对解耦且阻尼后的系统设计大林控制器来提升稳定裕度。实验结果表明,相较于复矢量PI控制器,所提出的状态反馈大林控制器dq轴解耦性能好,电流超调小,系统振荡小,且抗扰能力显著提升。

数据要素对劳动和资本的配置效应:机理分析与实证检验

本文通过构建包含互联网平台主体的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,探究了数据要素变革劳动和资本要素配置的机理,并利用动态面板模型实证检验了数据要素成本、数字化技术创新与数据要素质量影响就业、投资和资本装备率的真实效应。研究表明:数据要素成本降低使得完全竞争条件下的产品价格走低,价格效应短期挤出劳动,长期挤入资本,提升资本装备率;数字化技术创新提高了全要素生产率,要素重组升级引致效率变革,通过替代效应促进就业、降低投资,降低资本装备率;数据质量改进通过协同效应稳定和扩大就业,阻止资本无边界的扩张,降低资本装备率。本文厘清了数据要素对劳动和资本单个要素及其比例关系的配置效应和作用机理,为制定数字经济背景下的就业与投资政策提供了决策参考。

中国超硬材料行业2023年运行报告

依托2023年国家宏观经济统计数据,对中国超硬产业进行深入分析,并结合中国、美国、欧洲和日本等地海关统计的进出口数据,探讨中国超硬材料行业的整体发展情况及其同国际先进水平的比较。研究发现:在国家宏观制造业表现出较强韧性、稳步增长的大背景下,我国超硬行业仍然面临较大的压力,整体指标不及预期,发展相对缓慢。下游市场的积极因素以光伏电池产量显著增长为代表,消极因素包括培育钻石市场低迷。除宝石级单晶和线锯产品外,其他产品均有单价上涨的情况出现,代表性企业的产品单价增幅普遍在10%~20%。部分超硬商品进出口单价悬殊,其在高端应用领域仍然有较大的发展潜力。

安徽省城市房价收入比的时空演变及驱动因素

基于2008―2020年安徽省面板数据,采用变异系数、趋势面分析、空间自相关和地理探测器等方法,分析安徽省房价收入比的时空演变及驱动力。研究表明:安徽省的房价收入比整体呈下降趋势,各市的房价收入比空间异质性增强,表现为西高东低,南高北低。安徽省房价收入比在南北方向上倒“U”型趋势减弱,由中心区域向外围递减;总体上各个方向的趋势都逐渐平缓,极化效应减弱。以合肥市为中心的房价收入比空间依赖性显著,处于不断增强的趋势;外围地区空间依赖性较弱。在驱动力方面,不同时期城市人口与经济这两大驱动因素对房价收入比的影响有着明显的差异。

基于定价因素和服务水平的公共汽电车票价制定方法--以青岛市为例

面对城市公共汽电车客运量下滑严重、财政补贴额度大幅上涨的压力,亟须制定符合新常态下城市发展特征的可持续公共汽电车票价政策。将公益性和市场化相结合,统筹考虑政府负担能力、居民经济承受能力和公共汽电车与城市轨道交通比价关系,对公共汽电车票价制定方法开展研究。以青岛市为例,通过与同类型城市进行对比,分别讨论人次票价成本比、运营补贴占城市财政收入比例、公共汽电车出行支出占居民收入比例、公共汽电车与城市轨道交通比价关系4个定价因素对公共汽电车票价制定的影响,确定平均人次票价初步方案为1.35元。构建由准则层4个指标、指标层14项指标构成的公共汽电车服务水平评价指标体系,基于服务水平综合评价结果调校确定平均人次票价为1.40元。结果显示,在这一票价水平下4个定价因素均处于青岛市合理目标范围。

基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估

在新能源快速发展的背景下,为应对其出力波动性和间歇性对电力系统的冲击,电力系统需要具有较强的爬坡能力。分析电力系统爬坡能力的供需情况,可以发现爬坡能力不足的风险,提高电力系统运行的安全性和稳定性。首先,提出电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估的逻辑和流程,并且给出确定性爬坡量、不确定性爬坡量和富余爬坡能力及其需供比的定义与概念。然后,提出基于置信数统计法和分位数回归法预估系统净负荷预测误差的理论与具体计算方法,以及上述参数的具体计算方法。最后,基于广东40个历史运行日和4个典型日的数据进行算例分析,验证该充裕度评估方法的有效性。研究表明:富余爬坡能力需供比可以有效识别不同典型日和特殊时段的爬坡特征,在日尺度和分钟尺度上反映其爬坡能力充裕度;覆盖率、超出量和预估量等指标,可以用于评价误差预估模型在不同地区和场景的适用性,作为模型选用参考。