LAND SUPPLY AND HOUSING PRICE:THE CASE IN HONG KONG

In this study we examine the relationship between land supply and housing price, percentage of land premium in the total government revenue and housing price, with reference to Hong Kong from 1981 to 1994. To do this we employ the Granger causality method to test the underlying hypothesis whether Hong Kong Government adopt high land-price policy. We use the first difference of data to ensure the stationarity in time series with the help of augmented Dick-Fuller unit root test. The results of the paper suggest no strong evidence to support the view that the land control of the government has caused soaringly rising housing prices. The findings also apparently implicate that the government has the revenue-maximizing behavior which is consistent with efficient allocation of resources.

Relationship between Housing Price and Land Price Based on Grey Relational Analysis

In recent Years, China＇s real estate market has been rapid developed, and real estate has become a hot spot of consumption and investment. In some large and medium-sized cities there has been a rapid rise in housing prices. The rapid rise in housing prices has led to difficulties in the purchase of houses in some cities and towns, and this phenomenon has aroused the attention and con- cern of all walks of life. Housing is the basic human life needs. Housing problem is not only an economic problem, but also a social problem. The relationship between house price and land price and the effective control of housing prices have become the focus of government and scholars. Thus, grey relational analysis is used to ana- lyze the relationship between housing prices and land prices, and the grey relational coefficients are calculated.

THE BENCHMARK LAND PRICE SYSTEM AND URBANLAND USE EFFICIENCY IN CHINA

ABSTRACT: China began to introduce market principles and establish price mechanism to better manage land and improve land use efficiency in the late 1980s. Since then, land markets begin to emerge. A benchmark land price system, providing guidelines for land use rights selling and transferring, was established in order to overcome lack of market data and experiences in land transaction. The benchmark prices of land use rights are determined by land use, land use density (floor-land ratio), land grades, land improvement, and tenant resettlement costs. This paper first conducts a formal analysis based on modern urban economic theory. The formal model provides a theoretical foundation in which the benchmark land price system is assessed and evaluated in terms of land use and urban development. The paper then concludes that the benchmark price system has two theoretical problems. One is associated with the fact that floor-land ratio plays an important role in land price determination whereas the theory suggests the other way around. That is, floor-land ratio depends on land prices. The other problem is that the benchmark land price system does not provide adequate room for the substitution between land and capital inputs. The substitution is a key in achieving land use efficiency in land markets and urban development process. It is concluded that the practice of the benchmark land price system is at odd with reforms that aim to introduce market principles and mechanism to guide resource uses. Therefore, it is recommended that further land policy reform should be taken.

Innovate the Land Supply Pattern and Stabilize the Housing

In the process of building a harmonious socialist society, the protection of people＇ s livelihood is the priority, and to solve the housing problem of over one billion residents is the top priority. The present thesis begins with the land supply mechanism, and do researches on the style, the source and the type of land supply. With the analysis of land finance, the present thesis finally put forward the measures to innovate the land supply pattern, to increase the supply of low-income housing, to reform the way of land supply and to explore the circulating pattern of normative collective construction land that comes to is on the market. Meanwhile, it combines the present house property tax reform, putting forward the idea that imposing land property tax should be a way to inhibit the behavior of speculation. The present thesis aims at keeping the housing price at a reasonable level so that the purpose of stabilizing the housing price can he achieved.

Effect of land prices on the spatial differentiation of housing prices:Evidence from cross-county analyses in China

This study analyzes the spatial patterns and driving forces of housing prices in China using a 2,872-county dataset of housing prices in 2014.Multiple theoretical perspec-tives on housing demand,supply,and market,are combined to establish a housing price model to explore the impact of land prices on housing prices.The relative impacts of land prices on housing prices at different administrative levels are then analyzed using the geo-graphical detector technique.Finally,the influencing mechanism of land prices on housing prices is discussed.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Housing prices have a pyra-mid-ranked distribution in China,where higher housing prices are linked to smaller urban populations.(2)Land prices are the primary driver of housing prices,and their impacts on housing prices vary over different administrative levels.To be specific,the effect of land prices is the strongest in the urban districts of provincial capital cities.(3)The internal influ-ence mechanisms for land prices driving housing prices are:topographic factors,urban con-struction level,the agglomeration degree of high-quality public service resources,and the tertiary industrial development level.The urban land supply plan(supply policies)is the in-trinsic driver that determines land prices in cities;through supply and demand,cost,and market mechanisms,land prices then impact housing prices.

A Study on the Relationship Between Land Finance and Housing Price in Urbanization Process: An Empirical Analysis of 182 Cities in China Based on Threshold Panel Models

Scholars have a variety of theoretical explanations for housing price growth. However, few scholars have studied the internal influence mechanism among urbanization, land finance, and housing price. Based on the data of 182 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2016, this paper studies the influence of land finance on housing price under different urbanization rate levels. The study finds that with the increase of urbanization rate, the effect of land finance on housing price presents a "U" shape.Specifically, an increase in land finance by 1% results in a corresponding increase in average housing price by 0.18%, with relatively low urbanization rate, 0.06% with medium level of urbanization rate,and 0.38% with high level of urbanization rate.

Examining the Impacts of Land Supply on Housing Price in Chinese Mega Cities: An Analysis of Prefecture-Level Cities in China from 2009 to 2016

Residential land supply is considered a powerful tool for intervening in the housing market in China. There has been continuous debate on the correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. Based on 35 Chinese prefecture-level cities’ panel data from 2009 to 2016, this study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics of residential land supply and housing prices, and explores their relationship applying Generalized Moment Models(GMM). The results show that(1) there is an overall downward trend in residential land supply and a significant rise in housing prices in most Chinese mega cities from 2009 to 2016, and the extent varies in four economic-geographical regions;(2) the decrease in the quantity of residential land supply contributes to the rise in housing prices to some degree, but there is no significant correlation between the land supply structure and housing prices. With the integration of socio-economic factors, the quantitative results validate the previous theoretical models of the casual correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. It further depicts the constraint of insufficient residential land supply in Chinese mega cities and claims it to be a contributor of rising housing prices. The paper concludes with implications for housing strategies and future studies.

Market Regulation and Fiscal Replenishment: An Analytical Framework for the Space Control Intensity for Regulatory Detailed Planning

Regulatory detailed planning is the most direct management tool for urban development and construction activities. Through theoretical deduction, this paper demonstrated the elastic relationship between the land-transferring price and the floor area ratio(FAR) of residential land, which represented the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning. Based on the two dimensions of market regulation and fiscal replenishment, this paper also established an analytical framework for the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning. The results showed that the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning decreased with the expansion of urban scale and that the weaker the market regulation and the stronger the land finance dependence, the weaker the space control intensity for regulatory detailed planning. Based on this, this paper proposed that local governments should strengthen the scientificity and openness of regulatory detailed planning, institutionally resolve the predicament due to fiscal decentralization, and reduce the dependence on land transfer income.

Examining the nonlinear and threshold effects of the 5Ds built environment to land values using interpretable machine learning models

Previous studies have extensively explored the critical influence of the built environment on land values,but the non-linear relationship has yet to be fully revealed.This study aims to uncover the non-linear relationship between land values and the five built environment dimensions using machine learning algorithms and Shapley Additive ex Planation(SHAP).The results highlight that the Gradient Boost Decision Tree (GBDT) outperforms e Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost),Ordinary Least Squares (OLS),and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) in land value estimation,exhibiting higher R^(2) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).The results illustrate that density and destination accessibility are the dominant factors,contributing 32.48%and37.38%to land value variation,respectively.We observed that the top three factors affecting land values are the built-floor area ratio,the number of floors and the number of restaurants.Additionally,the results revealed the non-linear relationship between the built environment and land values,suggesting that maintaining built environment features at optimal thresholds may increase land values.Neglecting interaction effects may lead to bias in determining relationships between land values and the built environment.This study contributes to the literature by providing non-linear and threshold identification evidence in land value determinants,offering valuable insights for urban planners and real estate managers.

Fiscal Pressure,Land Finance and Ratchet Effects of House Prices

In this paper,we focus on the issues of local governments’fiscal pressure,land finance and house prices,and systematically analyze how local governments’fiscal pressure and land finance lead to China’s ratcheting up of house prices.The results show that to release the fiscal pressure,local governments tend to increase land revenue and obtain high real estate related revenue by raising house prices.In this sense,the increase of the land transfer price will result in the increase of the cost of real estates,and eventually leading to the increase of house prices.That is to say,local governments’fiscal pressure will not only result in the increase of house prices directly but also consolidate the ratchet effects of house prices.

地方政府债务对城镇化的影响机制及中介效应

地方政府债务扩张是我国政府主导、投资驱动型传统城镇化模式的重要动能和必然表现。然而,当前地方债问题日益显现,地方城投平台高杠杆主导城镇化模式亟待转型。基于2002-2020年全国31个省份数据,运用个体固定效应与工具变量模型,实证分析地方政府债务对新型城镇化的影响机制及中介效应和调节效应后发现:地方债扩张对城镇化产生先促进再抑制的非线性影响,债务扩张初期有利于完善城市基础设施和促进就业,但后期资本效率下降和对私人投资的挤出凸显;地方债通过抬高房价-收入比、刺激固定资产投资进而促进城镇化;老龄化程度越高的地方政府越倾向通过债务扩张拉动城镇化;但是服务业就业会减缓地方债对城镇化的促进效果。因此,高城镇化水平区域要更加严控地方政府债务规模,约束地方城投公司行为,地方财政支出更多偏向养老支持、住房保障等普惠性公共服务,发挥第三产业就业对城镇化作用。

房价水平与生育意愿:来自家庭杠杆率非对称效应的证据?

近年来房价下降使得许多高杠杆率家庭的债务风险凸显,其对居民生育意愿的影响是一个非常重要但易被忽视的问题。基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从房价水平的家庭杠杆率非对称效应视角研究其对居民生育意愿的影响。结果表明:高房价对居民生育意愿的财富效应不存在,收入效应与替代效应的净效应为负,表现为显著的抑制作用。家庭杠杆率是房价水平影响居民生育意愿的重要作用机制,且存在高房价“债务弹性”与低房价“债务黏性”的非对称效应。房价水平对居民生育意愿的抑制作用在低收入、住房条件差等弱势群体中表现得更显著,成本压力效应更明显。

中心城市科技创新能促进城市群协调发展吗?——兼论收入房价比的调节作用

利用2007—2019年127个地级市的数据,系统检验了中心城市科技创新对城市群协调发展的影响机制,并讨论了收入房价比对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:第一,中心城市科技创新水平的提高不仅显著促进了城市群协调发展,还加快了外围城市经济增长收敛,并在不同地区和不同发展阶段的城市群表现出明显的异质性。第二,中心城市科技创新通过深化产业分工促进城市群协调发展。第三,收入房价比能够调节中心城市科技创新与城市群协调发展之间的关系,但调节效果存在区域异质性,仅在中部地区显著增强了中心城市科技创新对城市群协调发展的促进作用,对东部和西部地区没有明显的调节作用。研究结论不仅丰富了中心城市科技创新影响城市群协调发展的理论研究,且在提高收入房价比方面提供了政策启示。

新房价格底部特征分析及政策建议

判断房价的趋势和拐点,是房地产市场研究的重点和难点,需要找到关键的分析指标。主要发达国家房地产市场发展历程表明,房价收入比的低点通常是房价的低点,房贷利率连续大幅下调会促进房价企稳,租金回报率超过无风险利率时房价触底支撑增强,购房意愿度最低时往往也是房价筑底的时候。我国在2008—2009年和2014—2015年经历过两次房价下行,房价筑底时房价收入比、个人住房贷款利率、租金回报率与无风险利率的利差、购房者预期四个指标均表现出了与国际市场相似的特征。本轮始于2021年下半年的房地产市场下行,是时间最长、房价调整幅度最大的一次。用房价收入比等四个指标判断,当前新房价格已呈现明显的底部特征。建议重视解决房企资金紧张问题,优化住房供给结构,降低居民改善置换成本,促进房地产市场尽快回稳。

房地产信贷与住房可支付性

本文使用2010—2022年中国135个城市房地产信贷、房价、房租以及家庭收入与消费数据,考察房地产信贷对住房可支付性影响。实证研究发现,城市房地产开发贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比越低;城市住房抵押贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比与房租收入比越高;房地产信贷对房价可支付性的影响大于房租可支付性;房地产开发贷款提高城市中等收入者住房可支付性,但住房抵押贷款降低城市中等收入者住房可支付性。因此,住房信贷政策应主要解决城市中等收入者房价可支付问题而非房租可支付问题。

住房价格与养老保障水平对人口出生率的影响——基于2019~2023年我国省际面板数据的实证分析

目的:基于孩子成本——效益理论,分析住房价格与养老保障水平对人口出生率的影响,为提高我国生育水平,推动我国人口长期均衡发展、优化人口结构提出对策建议。方法:利用2019年~2023年31个省的宏观数据,采用房价收入比和基本养老保险覆盖率作为住房价格和养老保障水平的衡量指标,通过面板固定效应模型进行实证分析,考察住房价格与养老保障水平对人口出生率的影响。结果:基准回归结果表明,作为生育成本的房价收入比(β=-0.201,P<0.001)和作为生育保障收益替代的基本养老保险覆盖率(β=-11.832,P<0.001)对人口出生率都有显著的负向影响,加入双向固定效应后的结果与基准回归结果保持一致。异质性回归结果表明,住房价格与养老保障对人口出生率的影响会因城镇化率和养老金发放标准的不同存在差异。结论:我国应当通过调控房价收入比、改革基本养老保险制度、加强正确婚恋观和家庭观引导以及均衡教育与医疗资源等措施,增大生育收益与成本之差,提高生育意愿和人口出生率。

安徽省城市房价收入比的时空演变及驱动因素

基于2008―2020年安徽省面板数据,采用变异系数、趋势面分析、空间自相关和地理探测器等方法,分析安徽省房价收入比的时空演变及驱动力。研究表明:安徽省的房价收入比整体呈下降趋势,各市的房价收入比空间异质性增强,表现为西高东低,南高北低。安徽省房价收入比在南北方向上倒“U”型趋势减弱,由中心区域向外围递减;总体上各个方向的趋势都逐渐平缓,极化效应减弱。以合肥市为中心的房价收入比空间依赖性显著,处于不断增强的趋势;外围地区空间依赖性较弱。在驱动力方面,不同时期城市人口与经济这两大驱动因素对房价收入比的影响有着明显的差异。

What Drives China's House Prices:Marriage or Money?

The high and rising house prices in China are not adequately accounted for the traditional explanations emphasizing demand-driven or cost-push factors. Reeent published studies claim that gender imbalance increases competition among men in the marriage market, which has pushed Chinese, especially parents with a son, to buy houses as a signal of relative status in the marriage market,＂ this marriage competition then causes high demand for houses and eventually leads to rising house prices in China. Empirical results in this paper, however, provide little support for this hypothesis and we find that a rise in the sex ratios for most age cohorts accounts for very small percentage variations in house price movements in China during 1998-2009. Further investigation suggests that excess demand driven by high monetary growth was a significant cause of the rising house prices in China during 1998-2009. Therefore, the impact of gender imbalance on house prices shouM not be exaggerated and monetary dynamics remains an important leading indicator for house price movements in China.

房地产企业杠杆率、房价与系统性金融风险

为厘清房地产杠杆率与系统性金融风险的关系,促进房地产市场的健康发展,防范化解金融风险。文章基于2005—2021年我国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型及空间杜宾模型实证检验了房地产企业杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响,发现房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险之间呈现先促进后抑制的“U”型关系,拐点在77.35%左右;房价水平对房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险的“U”型关系具有显著的负向调节作用,房价的上涨能削弱房企杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响程度;空间视角分析显示,其他省份房地产企业杠杆率上升能够发挥“警示作用”进而抑制本省的系统性金融风险。因此,监管部门应合理监管房企杠杆率水平,并结合房价调控政策灵活实施房企去杠杆率政策。

租赁住房与租赁住房用地刍议

对居民个人和家庭来说,选择通过租赁或购买住房满足居住需求,除了受到自身和家庭的实际需求、经济条件等直接因素影响外,还会受到住房政策及制度的深刻影响。正是由于住房的租购选择是一个复杂的社会问题,不同国家和地区基于政治、经济、文化、社会、人口等多方面因素考虑,在国家顶层设计上制定了不同的住房政策和配套制度。十九大报告提出加快建立“租购并举”新型城镇住房制度以来,我国在大城市发展租赁住房的步伐不断加快,2020年中央经济工作会提出为“解决好大城市住房突出问题,土地供应要向租赁住房建设倾斜,单列租赁住房用地计划”。本文通过梳理我国不同历史阶段的城镇住房制度与土地和城市规划制度的关系,提出为促进租赁住房高质量发展,在单列租赁住房用地方面需要完善,一是对城乡用地分类标准中的居住用地大类进一步细分,增设租赁住房用地分类;二是编制好住房保障专项规划,并做好与街区规划的衔接,将租赁住房用地在法定规划中进行空间落位。同时,还需创新租赁住房用地的土地供应和土地价格机制。