This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are...This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.展开更多
The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is...The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.展开更多
Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(includi...Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.展开更多
In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems...In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.展开更多
The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such probl...The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.展开更多
Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty ...Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty are synthesized in the so-called probability of failure.This probability quantifies the reliability of a slope and its numerical calculation is usually quite involved from a numerical viewpoint.In view of this issue,this paper proposes an approach for failure probability assessment based on Latinized partially stratified sampling and maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The spatial variability of geotechnical properties is represented by means of random fields and the Karhunen-Loève expansion.Then,failure probabilities are estimated employing maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The application of the proposed approach is examined with two examples:a case study of an undrained slope and a case study of a slope with cross-correlated random fields of strength parameters under a drained slope.The results show that the proposed approach has excellent accuracy and high efficiency,and it can be applied straightforwardly to similar geotechnical engineering problems.展开更多
The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of ran...The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.展开更多
To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on ...To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis,an improved three-dimensional discrete deterministic mechanism,accounting for the heterogeneous nature of soil media,is formulated to evaluate seismic face stability.The metamodel of failure probabilistic assessments for seismic tunnel faces is constructed by integrating the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method(SPCE)with the modified pseudo-dynamic approach(MPD).The improved deterministic model is validated by comparing with published literature and numerical simulations results,and the SPCE-MPD metamodel is examined with the traditional MCS method.Based on the SPCE-MPD metamodels,the seismic effects on face failure probability and reliability index are presented and the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)is involved to reflect the influence order of seismic action parameters.Finally,the proposed approach is tested to be effective by a engineering case of the Chengdu outer ring tunnel.The results show that higher uncertainty of seismic response on face stability should be noticed in areas with intense earthquakes and variation of seismic wave velocity has the most profound influence on tunnel face stability.展开更多
This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures f...This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior studies.The proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in Tehran.Finite element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with previous experiments.The uncertainties in the material,mass,and geometric properties of structures are described by random variables that are input to the finite element model.An artificial ground motion model is employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty in ground motion.Monte Carlo sampling is subsequently conducted on the library of probabilistic models.The analysis resulted in the loss distribution in the life cycle of structures.Additionally,the loss associated with six earthquake scenarios having specific magnitudes and return periods is computed.The application provides insight into the most vulnerable equipment in the considered system.Furthermore,introduced risk measures can guide stakeholders to make risk-based decisions to optimize design or prioritize a retrofit of infrastructure components under conditions of uncertainty.展开更多
Load shedding is a major problem in Central Africa, with negative consequences for both society and the economy. However, load profile analysis can help to alleviate this problem by providing valuable information abou...Load shedding is a major problem in Central Africa, with negative consequences for both society and the economy. However, load profile analysis can help to alleviate this problem by providing valuable information about consumer demand. This information can be used by power utilities to forecast and reduce power cuts effectively. In this study, the direct method was used to create load profiles for residential feeders in Kinshasa. The results showed that load shedding on weekends results in significant financial losses and changes in people’s behavior. In November 2022 alone, load shedding was responsible for $ 23,4 08,984 and $ 2 80,9 07,808 for all year in losses. The study also found that the SAIDI index for the southern direction of the Kinshasa distribution network was 122.49 hours per feeder, on average. This means that each feeder experienced an average of 5 days of load shedding in November 2022. The SAIFI index was 20 interruptions per feeder, on average, and the CAIDI index was 6 hours, on average, before power was restored. This study also proposes ten strategies for the reduction of load shedding in the Kinshasa and central Africa power distribution network and for the improvement of its reliability, namely: Improved load forecasting, Improvement of the grid infrastructure, Scheduling of load shedding, Demand management programs, Energy efficiency initiatives, Distributed Generation, Automation and Monitoring of the Grid, Education and engagement of the consumer, Policy and regulatory assistance, and Updated load profile analysis.展开更多
It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural perform...It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.展开更多
In the Internet of Things(IoT)system,relay communication is widely used to solve the problem of energy loss in long-distance transmission and improve transmission efficiency.In Body Sensor Network(BSN)systems,biosenso...In the Internet of Things(IoT)system,relay communication is widely used to solve the problem of energy loss in long-distance transmission and improve transmission efficiency.In Body Sensor Network(BSN)systems,biosensors communicate with receiving devices through relay nodes to improve their limited energy efficiency.When the relay node fails,the biosensor can communicate directly with the receiving device by releasing more transmitting power.However,if the remaining battery power of the biosensor is insufficient to enable it to communicate directly with the receiving device,the biosensor will be isolated by the system.Therefore,a new combinatorial analysis method is proposed to analyze the influence of random isolation time(RIT)on system reliability,and the competition relationship between biosensor isolation and propagation failure is considered.This approach inherits the advantages of common combinatorial algorithms and provides a new approach to effectively address the impact of RIT on system reliability in IoT systems,which are affected by competing failures.Finally,the method is applied to the BSN system,and the effect of RIT on the system reliability is analyzed in detail.展开更多
Since entering the era of Industry 4.0,the concept of Healthcare 4.0 has also been put forward and explored by researchers.How to use Information Technology(IT)to better serve people’s healthcare is one of the most f...Since entering the era of Industry 4.0,the concept of Healthcare 4.0 has also been put forward and explored by researchers.How to use Information Technology(IT)to better serve people’s healthcare is one of the most featured emerging directions in the academic circle.An important field of Healthcare 4.0 research is the reliability engineering of healthcare service.Because healthcare systems often affect the health and even life of their users,developers must be very cautious in the design,development,and operation of these healthcare systems and services.The problems to be solved include the reliability of business process,system functions,and personal healthcare data.The Functional Resonance Analysis Method(FRAM)has been applied in reliability engineering for safety-critical systems in available studies,using both qualitative and quantitative approaches.However,the method has not been applied in the field of digital healthcare services development.Therefore,to narrow the gap,we present in this paper a semi-quantitative functional resonance analysis method to develop reliable healthcare services for diabetics.Moreover,this paper has tried to improve the reliability design of the service-oriented architecture(SOA)of traditional insulin pump therapy by system thinking.展开更多
Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein...Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein we intend to update the finite element model automatically in the identification process of failure modes and further perform the system reliability analysis efficiently.This study presents a framework that is implemented through the joint simulation of MATLAB and APDL and consists of three parts:reliability index of a single member,identification of dominant failure modes,and system-level reliability analysis for system reliability analysis of truss structures.Firstly,RSM(response surface method)combines with a constrained optimization model to calculate the reliability indices ofmembers.Then theβ-unzipping method is adopted to identify the dominant failuremodes,and the system function in MATLAB,as well as the EKILL command in APDL,is used to facilitate the automatic update of the finite element model and realize load-redistribution.Besides,the differential equivalence recursion algorithmis performed to approximate the reliability indices of failuremodes efficiently and accurately.Eventually,the PNET(probabilistic network evaluation technique)is used to calculate the joint failure probability as well as the system reliability index.Two illustrative examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed system reliability analysis framework through comparison with corresponding references.展开更多
As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions ...As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.展开更多
An alternative technique for crack detection in a Timoshenko beam based on the first anti-resonant frequency is presented in this paper. Unlike the natural frequency, the anti-resonant frequency is a local parameter r...An alternative technique for crack detection in a Timoshenko beam based on the first anti-resonant frequency is presented in this paper. Unlike the natural frequency, the anti-resonant frequency is a local parameter rather than a global parameter of structures, thus the proposed technique can be used to locate the structural defects. An impedance analysis of a cracked beam stimulated by a harmonic force based on the Timoshenko beam formulation is investigated. In order to characterize the local discontinuity due to cracks, a rotational spring model based on fracture mechanics is proposed to model the crack. Subsequently, the proposed method is verified by a numerical example of a simply-supported beam with a crack. The effect of the crack size on the anti-resonant frequency is investigated. The position of the crack of the simply-supported beam is also determined by the anti-resonance technique. The proposed technique is further applied to the "contaminated" anti-resonant frequency to detect crack damage, which is obtained by adding 1-3% noise to the calculated data. It is found that the proposed technique is effective and free from the environment noise. Finally, an experimental study is performed, which further verifies the validity of the proposed crack identification technique.展开更多
Response surface method is used to study the reliability analysis of laterally loaded piles in sloping ground. A development load-displacement (p-y) curve for laterally loaded pile response in sloping ground is used...Response surface method is used to study the reliability analysis of laterally loaded piles in sloping ground. A development load-displacement (p-y) curve for laterally loaded pile response in sloping ground is used to model the pile-soil system, both the pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment of the piles are used as the performance criteria in this study. The reliability analysis method of the laterally loaded pile in sloping ground under the pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment failure modes is proposed, which is in good agreement with the Monte Carlo method. The influences on the probability index of failure by a number of parameters are discussed. It is shown that the variability of pile head displacement increases with the increase in the coefficients of variation of ultimate bearing capacity factor (Npu), secant elastic modulus at 50%(E50) and level load (H). A negative correlation between Npu and non-dimensional factor (λ) leads to less spread out probability density function (PDF) of the pile head displacement;in contrast, a positive correlation between Npu andλgives a great variation in the PDF of pile head displacement. As for bearing capacity factor on ground surface (Npo) and λ, both negative and positive correlations between them give a great variation in the PDF of pile head displacement, and a negative correlation will obviously increase the variability of the response.展开更多
Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute s...Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.展开更多
The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the perfo...The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the performance function is given under various kinds of slice methods, even under various shapes of slice partition, beyond the traditional vertical slice method. A simple example shows explicitly the relationship of four commonly used slice methods in the slope reliability analysis. It is also found that the results of the reliability analysis are basically consistent with those of the stability analysis based on Sarma′s method.展开更多
A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design.The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on ...A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design.The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on the parameter values with typical data from laboratory tests and site investigations used in design.The posterior distributions are often complex,multidimensional functions whose analysis requires the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods.These procedures are used to draw representative samples of the parameters investigated,providing information on their best estimate values,variability and correlations.The paper describes the methodology to define the posterior distributions of the input parameters for slope design and the use of these results for evaluation of the reliability of a slope with the first order reliability method(FORM).The reliability analysis corresponds to a forward stability analysis of the slope where the factor of safety(FS)is calculated with a surrogate model from the more likely values of the input parameters.The Bayesian model is also used to update the estimation of the input parameters based on the back analysis of slope failure.In this case,the condition FS?1 is treated as a data point that is compared with the model prediction of FS.The analysis requires a sufficient number of observations of failure to outbalance the effect of the initial input parameters.The parameters are updated according to their uncertainty,which is determined by the amount of data supporting them.The methodology is illustrated with an example of a rock slope characterised with a Hoek-Brown rock mass strength.The example is used to highlight the advantages of using Bayesian methods for the slope reliability analysis and to show the effects of data support on the results of the updating process from back analysis of failure.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52109144,52025094 and 52222905).
文摘This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.
基金Financial support for this research was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.52222111)。
文摘The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.
文摘Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52375238)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202201020213,202201020193,202201010399)GZHU-HKUST Joint Research Fund(YH202109).
文摘In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.52175130the Sichuan Science and Technology Program under Grants Nos.2022YFQ0087 and 2022JDJQ0024+1 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under Grant No.2022A1515240010the Students Go Abroad for Scientific Research and Internship Funding Program of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China.
文摘The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.
基金funding support from the China Scholarship Council(CSC).
文摘Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty are synthesized in the so-called probability of failure.This probability quantifies the reliability of a slope and its numerical calculation is usually quite involved from a numerical viewpoint.In view of this issue,this paper proposes an approach for failure probability assessment based on Latinized partially stratified sampling and maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The spatial variability of geotechnical properties is represented by means of random fields and the Karhunen-Loève expansion.Then,failure probabilities are estimated employing maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The application of the proposed approach is examined with two examples:a case study of an undrained slope and a case study of a slope with cross-correlated random fields of strength parameters under a drained slope.The results show that the proposed approach has excellent accuracy and high efficiency,and it can be applied straightforwardly to similar geotechnical engineering problems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U22A20594)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.B230205028)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX23_0694).
文摘The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.
基金Project([2018]3010)supported by the Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Major Project,China。
文摘To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis,an improved three-dimensional discrete deterministic mechanism,accounting for the heterogeneous nature of soil media,is formulated to evaluate seismic face stability.The metamodel of failure probabilistic assessments for seismic tunnel faces is constructed by integrating the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method(SPCE)with the modified pseudo-dynamic approach(MPD).The improved deterministic model is validated by comparing with published literature and numerical simulations results,and the SPCE-MPD metamodel is examined with the traditional MCS method.Based on the SPCE-MPD metamodels,the seismic effects on face failure probability and reliability index are presented and the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)is involved to reflect the influence order of seismic action parameters.Finally,the proposed approach is tested to be effective by a engineering case of the Chengdu outer ring tunnel.The results show that higher uncertainty of seismic response on face stability should be noticed in areas with intense earthquakes and variation of seismic wave velocity has the most profound influence on tunnel face stability.
文摘This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior studies.The proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in Tehran.Finite element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with previous experiments.The uncertainties in the material,mass,and geometric properties of structures are described by random variables that are input to the finite element model.An artificial ground motion model is employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty in ground motion.Monte Carlo sampling is subsequently conducted on the library of probabilistic models.The analysis resulted in the loss distribution in the life cycle of structures.Additionally,the loss associated with six earthquake scenarios having specific magnitudes and return periods is computed.The application provides insight into the most vulnerable equipment in the considered system.Furthermore,introduced risk measures can guide stakeholders to make risk-based decisions to optimize design or prioritize a retrofit of infrastructure components under conditions of uncertainty.
文摘Load shedding is a major problem in Central Africa, with negative consequences for both society and the economy. However, load profile analysis can help to alleviate this problem by providing valuable information about consumer demand. This information can be used by power utilities to forecast and reduce power cuts effectively. In this study, the direct method was used to create load profiles for residential feeders in Kinshasa. The results showed that load shedding on weekends results in significant financial losses and changes in people’s behavior. In November 2022 alone, load shedding was responsible for $ 23,4 08,984 and $ 2 80,9 07,808 for all year in losses. The study also found that the SAIDI index for the southern direction of the Kinshasa distribution network was 122.49 hours per feeder, on average. This means that each feeder experienced an average of 5 days of load shedding in November 2022. The SAIFI index was 20 interruptions per feeder, on average, and the CAIDI index was 6 hours, on average, before power was restored. This study also proposes ten strategies for the reduction of load shedding in the Kinshasa and central Africa power distribution network and for the improvement of its reliability, namely: Improved load forecasting, Improvement of the grid infrastructure, Scheduling of load shedding, Demand management programs, Energy efficiency initiatives, Distributed Generation, Automation and Monitoring of the Grid, Education and engagement of the consumer, Policy and regulatory assistance, and Updated load profile analysis.
文摘It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(GrantNo.62172058)the Hunan ProvincialNatural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.2022JJ10052,2022JJ30624).
文摘In the Internet of Things(IoT)system,relay communication is widely used to solve the problem of energy loss in long-distance transmission and improve transmission efficiency.In Body Sensor Network(BSN)systems,biosensors communicate with receiving devices through relay nodes to improve their limited energy efficiency.When the relay node fails,the biosensor can communicate directly with the receiving device by releasing more transmitting power.However,if the remaining battery power of the biosensor is insufficient to enable it to communicate directly with the receiving device,the biosensor will be isolated by the system.Therefore,a new combinatorial analysis method is proposed to analyze the influence of random isolation time(RIT)on system reliability,and the competition relationship between biosensor isolation and propagation failure is considered.This approach inherits the advantages of common combinatorial algorithms and provides a new approach to effectively address the impact of RIT on system reliability in IoT systems,which are affected by competing failures.Finally,the method is applied to the BSN system,and the effect of RIT on the system reliability is analyzed in detail.
文摘Since entering the era of Industry 4.0,the concept of Healthcare 4.0 has also been put forward and explored by researchers.How to use Information Technology(IT)to better serve people’s healthcare is one of the most featured emerging directions in the academic circle.An important field of Healthcare 4.0 research is the reliability engineering of healthcare service.Because healthcare systems often affect the health and even life of their users,developers must be very cautious in the design,development,and operation of these healthcare systems and services.The problems to be solved include the reliability of business process,system functions,and personal healthcare data.The Functional Resonance Analysis Method(FRAM)has been applied in reliability engineering for safety-critical systems in available studies,using both qualitative and quantitative approaches.However,the method has not been applied in the field of digital healthcare services development.Therefore,to narrow the gap,we present in this paper a semi-quantitative functional resonance analysis method to develop reliable healthcare services for diabetics.Moreover,this paper has tried to improve the reliability design of the service-oriented architecture(SOA)of traditional insulin pump therapy by system thinking.
基金support from the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2021YFB2600605,2021YFB2600600)the Overseas Scholar Program in the Hebei Province(C20190514)+1 种基金from the State Key Laboratory of Mechanical Behavior and System Safety of Traffic Engineering Structures Project(ZZ2020-20)from the Youth Foundation of Hebei Science and Technology Research Project(QN2018108).
文摘Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein we intend to update the finite element model automatically in the identification process of failure modes and further perform the system reliability analysis efficiently.This study presents a framework that is implemented through the joint simulation of MATLAB and APDL and consists of three parts:reliability index of a single member,identification of dominant failure modes,and system-level reliability analysis for system reliability analysis of truss structures.Firstly,RSM(response surface method)combines with a constrained optimization model to calculate the reliability indices ofmembers.Then theβ-unzipping method is adopted to identify the dominant failuremodes,and the system function in MATLAB,as well as the EKILL command in APDL,is used to facilitate the automatic update of the finite element model and realize load-redistribution.Besides,the differential equivalence recursion algorithmis performed to approximate the reliability indices of failuremodes efficiently and accurately.Eventually,the PNET(probabilistic network evaluation technique)is used to calculate the joint failure probability as well as the system reliability index.Two illustrative examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed system reliability analysis framework through comparison with corresponding references.
基金co-supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61833016)the Shaanxi Out-standing Youth Science Foundation(No.2020JC-34)+1 种基金the Shaanxi Science and Technology Innovation Team(No.2022TD-24)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.LH2021F038).
文摘As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50608036)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Universities.
文摘An alternative technique for crack detection in a Timoshenko beam based on the first anti-resonant frequency is presented in this paper. Unlike the natural frequency, the anti-resonant frequency is a local parameter rather than a global parameter of structures, thus the proposed technique can be used to locate the structural defects. An impedance analysis of a cracked beam stimulated by a harmonic force based on the Timoshenko beam formulation is investigated. In order to characterize the local discontinuity due to cracks, a rotational spring model based on fracture mechanics is proposed to model the crack. Subsequently, the proposed method is verified by a numerical example of a simply-supported beam with a crack. The effect of the crack size on the anti-resonant frequency is investigated. The position of the crack of the simply-supported beam is also determined by the anti-resonance technique. The proposed technique is further applied to the "contaminated" anti-resonant frequency to detect crack damage, which is obtained by adding 1-3% noise to the calculated data. It is found that the proposed technique is effective and free from the environment noise. Finally, an experimental study is performed, which further verifies the validity of the proposed crack identification technique.
基金Projects(5147847951322403)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+3 种基金Project(2015CX005)supported by Innovation Driven Plan of Central South University,ChinaProject(14JJ4003)supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation,ChinaProject(SKLGP2014K008)supported by Opening Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,ChinaProject(2015CB060200)supported by the National Basic Research Program of China
文摘Response surface method is used to study the reliability analysis of laterally loaded piles in sloping ground. A development load-displacement (p-y) curve for laterally loaded pile response in sloping ground is used to model the pile-soil system, both the pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment of the piles are used as the performance criteria in this study. The reliability analysis method of the laterally loaded pile in sloping ground under the pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment failure modes is proposed, which is in good agreement with the Monte Carlo method. The influences on the probability index of failure by a number of parameters are discussed. It is shown that the variability of pile head displacement increases with the increase in the coefficients of variation of ultimate bearing capacity factor (Npu), secant elastic modulus at 50%(E50) and level load (H). A negative correlation between Npu and non-dimensional factor (λ) leads to less spread out probability density function (PDF) of the pile head displacement;in contrast, a positive correlation between Npu andλgives a great variation in the PDF of pile head displacement. As for bearing capacity factor on ground surface (Npo) and λ, both negative and positive correlations between them give a great variation in the PDF of pile head displacement, and a negative correlation will obviously increase the variability of the response.
文摘Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.
文摘The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the performance function is given under various kinds of slice methods, even under various shapes of slice partition, beyond the traditional vertical slice method. A simple example shows explicitly the relationship of four commonly used slice methods in the slope reliability analysis. It is also found that the results of the reliability analysis are basically consistent with those of the stability analysis based on Sarma′s method.
基金supported by the Large Open Pit Ⅱ project through contract No.019799 with the Geotechnical Research Centre of The University of Queensland,Australia and by SRK Consulting South Africa
文摘A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design.The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on the parameter values with typical data from laboratory tests and site investigations used in design.The posterior distributions are often complex,multidimensional functions whose analysis requires the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods.These procedures are used to draw representative samples of the parameters investigated,providing information on their best estimate values,variability and correlations.The paper describes the methodology to define the posterior distributions of the input parameters for slope design and the use of these results for evaluation of the reliability of a slope with the first order reliability method(FORM).The reliability analysis corresponds to a forward stability analysis of the slope where the factor of safety(FS)is calculated with a surrogate model from the more likely values of the input parameters.The Bayesian model is also used to update the estimation of the input parameters based on the back analysis of slope failure.In this case,the condition FS?1 is treated as a data point that is compared with the model prediction of FS.The analysis requires a sufficient number of observations of failure to outbalance the effect of the initial input parameters.The parameters are updated according to their uncertainty,which is determined by the amount of data supporting them.The methodology is illustrated with an example of a rock slope characterised with a Hoek-Brown rock mass strength.The example is used to highlight the advantages of using Bayesian methods for the slope reliability analysis and to show the effects of data support on the results of the updating process from back analysis of failure.