Study on Consumption Level and Consumption Structure of Migrant Workers in Zhejiang Province

On the basis of stratified sampling, we conduct a survey of 1313 migrant workers, to analyze various factors influencing migrant workers' consumption level and the difference in consumption structure between two generations of migrant workers, using the multivariate logistic regression and correspondence analysis method. The results show that two generations of migrant workers' consumption level is the same, and the main factors influencing migrant workers' consumption are income, educational level and occupation; the new generation of migrant workers' consumer attitudes and consumption pattern are transformed significantly, being gradually integrated into the urban consumer market, and the consumption structure is steered to a reasonable direction.

Fragility Curves of Existing RC Buildings Based on Specific Structural Performance Levels

In seismic risk mitigation policies, fragility functions of existing buildings play a fundamental role. In this paper, a procedure to develop analytical fragility curves for Moment Resisting Frame Reinforced Concrete buildings is presented. The design of the selected building typologies was performed according to the codes at the time of construction using force-based methods and the state of the practice at the time of construction. A total of 216 building classes were defined, considering different ages, number of storeys, infill panels, plan dimensions, beam stiffness, and concrete strength. The investigated buildings can be considered low-engineered buildings, using no seismic codes or old seismic codes. The seismic capacity of the selected models representing the existing RC buildings has been evaluated through non-linear dynamic simulations. Seismic response has been analyzed, considering various peak and integral intensity measures and various response parameters, such as ductility demands and Interstorey Drift Ratio (IDR). A new relationship among structural performance, damage levels and interstorey drift ratios for each studied type is introduced, which is calibrated using the damage levels described in EMS98. It is important to highlight that in this study, different thresholds of IDR have been associated with different typologies, considering their different ductility member levels after their different structural responses. Fragility Curves (FCs) for the studied structural types are set up, developed and discussed.

Relationship Between Economic Growth and Water Environmental Quality of Anshan City in Northeast China

Based on the decomposition model of environmental quality and univariate regression model,the relationships of industrial wastewater drainage with economic scale,economic structure,and technological level in Anshan,a mining city in Northeast China,were studied. The results showed that,due to scale effect,the drainage of three important industrial wastewater pollutants(COD,NH3-N and petroleum) increased 8505t,671t and 384t,respectively,and due to structure effect,those pollutants drainage increased 3996t,174t and 120t from 2001 to 2006. While due to technological effect,the drainage of COD,NH3-N and petroleum reduced 4452t,458t and 331t,and due to cross effect,those pollutants drainage reduced 7270t,575t and 476t simultaneously. Meantime,the relationships between household consumption structure and domestic sewage discharge were analyzed,and domestic sewage discharges in different income levels were also compared. The results showed that,the domestic sewage discharges would increase 376t with 1000 yuan(RMB) increased in the traffic and communication consumption,and they would be 344t,219t,428t,1873t,respectively,in housing consumption,food consumption,medical consumption,miscellaneous commodity consumption. The proportion of domestic sewage discharge increased for high income residents significantly,but reduced for lower income residents. The industrial wastewater pollutants drainage tends to be reduced by technical progress,while domestic sewage discharge will be a more important factor for urban water environment quality.

Seismic fragility analysis of composite frame structure based on performance

Steel-concrete composite structures that share the advantages of both steel structure and concrete structure have been developed rapidly and used widely. It has been a popular structure in high-rise buildings in recent years. Although more and more composite structures have been used in earthquake area, only a few literatures about fragility analysis of this type of structure are available. In this paper, a fragility analysis method based on performance is proposed, in which both the uncertainty due to variability in structures and ground motion are considered. Seismic fragility analysis is performed for a 15-story composite beam-concrete-filled square steel tube column frame by the proposed method. The top-drift-angle and the story-drift-angle are used as quantitative indexes to define the four different performance levels. Then seismic demand probability analysis is carried out and fragility curves are derived to assess the seismic performance of this type of structure.

Intergenerational Comparative Study on Consumption of Migrant Workers in China

Based on China urban labor survey data of 2016, this paper investigates the differences in consumption level and structure between the new and previous generation rural migrant workers in China and identifies the determinants of migrant workers' consumption. According to descriptive analysis, the new-generation migrant workers' households spend 26% more on an annual per capita basis compared with their previous generation. More specifically, the new-generation migrant workers' households spend 33% more on clothing, food, housing and travel, and 10% more on healthcare on an annual per capita basis compared with their previous generation, while their per capita spending on education is only 73% that of their previous generation. Result of regression analysis shows that with other factors under control, the new-generation migrant workers' households spend 14.9% more on clothing, food, housing and travel compared with their previous generation, and their per capita gross consumption is 10.9% higher than that of their previous generation. Consumption elasticity for clothing, food, housing and travel among the new-generation migrant workers' households and their overall consumption elasticity are both significantly higher than those of the previous generation migrant workers' households. Compared with their previous generation, the spending of the new-generation migrant workers' households on clothing, food, housing and travel represents a higher share of their overall consumption, and the share of their educational consumption is even lower.

产业数字化对碳生产力的影响研究

在数字经济时代背景下,借助产业数字化平衡经济发展与碳排放之间的关系,对“双碳”目标的实现具有重要意义。本文基于2013~2021年的省级面板数据构建产业数字化水平指标体系,测度后实证探讨产业数字化对碳生产力的影响及作用机制,并多维度比较分析其影响差异。研究发现:产业数字化的发展能够显著促进碳生产力的提升,但该促进作用具有异质性。在中、西部和数字技术水平低的地区,产业数字化对碳生产力的提升作用更强;相比农业和工业数字化,服务业数字化对碳生产力的提升作用更显著。进一步的机制分析表明,产业数字化可通过促进绿色技术创新和优化能源消费结构推动碳生产力提升。本文为深入推进产业数字化的发展以及充分发挥其在实现“双碳”目标中的关键作用提供了理论指导及政策启示。

互联网使用对中国居民家庭消费结构的影响及其空间异质性

基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,对互联网普及与居民家庭消费水平时空演变进行分析,并检验互联网使用是否会对居民家庭消费水平和结构产生影响,是否促进居民家庭消费升级。发现:①互联网使用人数、使用互联网进行商业活动的频率以及居民家庭总消费在时序上均显著增长;东部地区享受型消费占比最高,中部地区发展型消费占比最高,东北地区生存型消费占比最高;互联网使用人数和家庭总消费呈现空间集聚特征,且表现出空间扩张和向西南方向移动的趋势。②互联网使用在促进家庭总消费的同时,也推动家庭消费结构由生存型向发展型和享受型转变。此外,互联网使用对于不同区域、城乡家庭的影响也存在显著差异,在城镇、西部、东北地区家庭消费升级中有更突出的积极作用。

银行数字化转型能否促进家庭消费“扩容提质”

在全球数字化浪潮的席卷下,银行数字化转型推动了家庭消费行为变革。本文通过匹配银行数字化转型指数与中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)家庭消费数据,分析了地区银行数字化转型对家庭消费总量和质量的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,银行数字化转型有助于促进家庭消费扩容提质,经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性处理后结论依然成立。机制分析表明,银行数字化转型通过调整家庭金融资产配置、提高银行信贷供给从而推动家庭消费扩容提质。异质性分析显示,高年龄、低学历、高收入、农村户籍、中西部地区、高银行竞争水平地区的家庭,银行数字化转型对消费扩容提质的正向作用更显著。进一步研究发现,银行数字化转型对高收入家庭消费总量的积极影响更明显,且随着收入和消费水平的提高,其对家庭升级型消费占比的正向作用呈倒U型。本文研究结论对全面认识中国家庭消费行为、推动家庭消费扩容提质具有一定指导意义。

家庭生命周期视角下家庭消费的异质性研究

居民消费是拉动经济持续增长的主要动力,而居民消费主要是以家庭为消费单元进行的社会活动。针对家庭消费动力提升问题,文章选取2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从家庭生命周期视角出发划分出不同的家庭类型,构建基准回归模型与分位数回归模型对家庭消费的异质性进行检验分析。研究发现:不同类型家庭之间在消费水平和消费结构方面均存在显著差异;大部分家庭的消费水平主要处于中低层级,仅有少部分年轻家庭和中年家庭的消费水平处于中高层级;整体来看家庭的生存型消费偏向中高层级,发展型消费和享受型消费偏向中低层级。各级政府部门应积极推行鼓励家庭消费的政策,着力提高中低收入居民家庭的收入水平,加大家庭能力建设,降低家庭在“一老一小”方面的负担,促进消费水平提升和消费结构向高层级优化,扩大内需,畅通国内大循环,实现经济高质量发展。

数字普惠金融助推产业结构升级的效果与机制研究

运用固定效应模型,选取2011—2018年277个地级城市的面板数据,评估数字普惠金融助推产业结构升级的效果,并进一步运用中介效应模型和门限效应模型检验其中的内在机制。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融能够有效地助推城市产业结构升级,助推作用主要通过数字普惠金融的覆盖广度和使用深度两个途径实现。数字普惠金融不仅能直接影响产业结构,还通过影响科技创新、消费水平及传统金融等因素,间接地促进产业结构升级。数字普惠金融有效提升了东部和中部地区城市产业结构,但未对西部地区城市产业结构产生影响。数字普惠金融影响城市产业结构呈现非线性特征:当数字普惠金融、传统金融和科技研发水平越过门限值后,数字普惠金融对城市产业结构升级的推动力会逐步增强;教育水平越过两个门限值后,数字普惠金融对城市产业结构升级的推动力会呈现先减弱后增强的趋势。

数字金融、收入结构与消费升级

激发国内消费潜力和促进消费升级是提振内需、加快构建新发展格局的战略基点。运用面板数据模型深度分析了数字金融、收入结构与消费升级之间直接和间接传导渠道,探究了对外开放和市场化发展等外部环境在间接传导渠道中的影响。研究发现:数字金融利用互联网技术赋能消费升级;数字金融推动收入结构优化是促进消费升级的重要传导渠道,而这一间接路径受到收入水平差异的影响;对外开放和市场化发展助推数字金融改善收入结构,进一步释放消费潜力,促进消费升级。因此,新形势下我国应积极推进数字金融发展,优化居民收入结构,从而促进消费升级,实现经济高质量发展。

乡村数字经济赋能农民消费:内在机理与实证检验

乡村数字经济着眼解决“三农”实际问题,焕发出农民消费扩容和结构升级新活力。现有文献鲜少综合考察乡村数字经济对农民消费扩容提质的双效应,对消费水平和消费结构之间的关系也较少关注。利用2013—2020年30个省的面板数据,分析乡村数字经济对农民消费“量”和“质”的双重影响,并通过门槛效应、中介效应对影响机制进行探索,结果表明:乡村数字经济能够显著提升农民消费水平和结构。乡村数字经济对农民消费水平的边际促进效应呈现出增强的趋势。从乡村数字经济影响农民消费结构的作用机制来看,需求层面表现为增加农民收入,供给层面表现为促进乡村产业振兴和提升公平性。异质性研究发现乡村数字经济对东部地区农民消费水平和消费结构的促进程度更强。此外,农民消费水平是影响消费结构的又一重要因素,且乡村数字经济能够通过提升农民消费水平促进消费结构升级。研究深化了乡村数字经济影响农民消费的理解,为农民消费增量提质提供了政策启示。

上海市能源碳排放回顾性分解与前瞻性预测

经济和社会发展离不开能源的使用,巨大的能源消耗将会产生大量碳排放。论文建立了经济能源碳排放(EECE)模型,对上海市碳排放进行回顾性分解(2000—2017年)和前瞻性预测(2025年和2030年)。具体而言,通过结构分解分析、双比例平衡法以及时间序列法,从系统层面建立了历史分析与未来分析之间的动态联系。研究发现,上海市化石能源产生碳排放量最多的能源类型为煤炭行业,其次为石油行业。天然气行业是产生碳排放量最少的化石能源。电力和热力的生产和供应业、服务业与金属冶炼和轧制加工业是上海市历年产生碳排放最多的部门。最终需求水平是上海市能源消耗产生碳排放的主要驱动因素。碳排放产生强度是上海市降低能源消耗产生碳排放的主要驱动力。在碳达峰条件下,2025年与2030年碳排放数量大幅降低。

人口老龄化对中国消费结构的异质性影响研究--基于回归数学模型的省级面板数据实证分析

人口老龄化不断加深是经济社会发达到一定程度的普遍现象,对中国消费结构有着深远影响。本文主要通过中国省级面板数据实证分析人口老龄化对消费结构的影响效果和作用路径。研究结果显示:(1)随着人口老龄化程度的加深,老龄化对中国消费结构存在倒“U”型影响;(2)人口老龄化对东部地区的消费结构没有显著性影响,对中部、西部以及东北地区的消费结构改善存在一定的负向影响;(3)产业结构和人力资本水平对人口老龄化与消费结构的影响具有正向调节效应。基于此,本文对中国人口老龄化问题和消费结构改善提出相应的改进措施,以供参考。

Neighborhood,community and consumption:Study on the socio-spatial structure during two boosting epochs in Shanghai

The modernization of Shanghai has experienced two boosting periods.The first appeared in the 1930s,when it formed the civil society of Shanghai and initially facilitated the trade port into an international metropolis.The second started after the nation’s reform and opening-up,which attempted to promote the city into a global metropolis in the 2010s.In order to evaluate the socio-spatial transitions of communities in Shanghai during the process,Lilong historical neighborhoods in the 1930s and 2010s are successively chosen as research objects.Meanwhile,three specific neighborhoods in each period are selected for case study,so as to depict different symbiosis patterns of the socio-spatial structures under different spatiotemporal conditions by means of a cross-sectional analysis of the consumption level.By pointing out Shanghai in the 1930s was marked with social integration and local-based consumption,while it was inundated with administration tendency and global-oriented consumption in the 2010s,the article believes the dual integration of local-based and global-oriented consumptions is an alternative solution for Shanghai.Finally,the article proposes that Shanghai’s current urban regeneration should rely on the multi-centered symbiotic structure to create a compound network,during which territorial socio-spatial structures and basic living needs of the plebeian can be simultaneously preserved.

数字普惠金融对山东居民消费水平的影响研究——基于中介效应的实证分析

消费是拉动经济增长的重要动力之一,扩大内需,促进消费成为促进经济复苏的重要调控方法。本文在双循环发展格局下探究数字普惠金融对山东居民消费水平的影响,通过构建数字普惠金融与居民消费水平的回归模型,进行中介效应分析,发现数字普惠金融的发展有利于山东居民消费水平的提升,同时人均可支配收入在该模型中发挥中介作用,以期为促进消费,缓解内需不足的问题提供新思路。

电子商务发展对居民消费水平影响研究——基于双向效应面板模型的实证分析

本文选取30个省份的数据样本,从电子商务发展能力、电子商务服务水平、互联网基础建设水平、政策发展水平四个角度构建电子商务发展综合评价体系,基于双向效应面板模型,实证了电子商务发展对居民消费水平的影响,以及商品交易成本在二者之间的调节作用。研究结果表明,电子商务发展对居民消费水平有正向促进作用,商品交易成本能够负向调节两者之间的关系。基于此,本文建议需要加大对电商领域的政策扶持,提高电商产品的质量,强化品牌建设,完善网络与物流等基础设施建设,促进电子商务健康有序发展,提升居民消费水平。

基于组合模型的居民消费水平预测

投资、出口、消费是发展经济的“三驾马车”。其中,消费是社会再生产过程中的重要环节,也是最终环节。因此,利用1992年至2021年我国居民消费水平,构建基于模型和二次曲线模型的组合模型,对我国居民消费水平进行预测。结果显示:组合模型的MAPE为2.88%;2022年至2030年我国居民消费水平近似呈直线式增长。

人口老龄化对居民消费影响的实证分析

近年来,老年抚养比不断增加,我国已从老龄社会迈步走向超老龄社会,明确人口老龄化对于居民消费的影响,把握银发经济的契机对于扩大内需来说至关重要。利用2011—2021年31省的面板数据,分析了人口老龄化对居民消费的影响。选取固定效应模型,进行回归。研究发现人口老龄化对于居民消费水平的提升具有显著的促进作用,人口老龄化对居民消费的影响存在消费类型异质性以及区域异质性,影响程度由高到低依次是生存型﹥享受型﹥发展型。对东、中部具有显著的正向影响,且对于东部地区有促进作用。

基于性能的方钢管混凝土框架结构地震易损性分析

钢-混凝土组合结构由于兼有钢结构和混凝土结构的优点,近年来得到了迅速发展和广泛应用,目前已成为我国高层建筑领域内应用较多的一种结构形式。虽然在地震区越来越多地采用这种新型的结构,但迄今为止还没有发现对钢-混凝土组合结构的地震易损性进行过研究的文献。因此给出一种基于性能的结构整体地震易损性分析方法,该方法既考虑了结构本身的不确定性,又考虑了地震动输入的不确定性。并定义了结构整体和楼层的四个极限破坏状态,从而提出了基于结构极限破坏状态确定结构抗震性能水平限值的方法。最后采用该方法对两个不同类型的方钢管混凝土框架结构进行基于性能的地震易损性分析,得到结构的易损性曲线,对结构的易损性能进行评估和分析,并比较了两个结构的易损性能。