Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models:Taking Bohai Bay as an example

The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.

3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

A study of cooperation processes in multi-agent systems of storm surge disaster

Collaborative governance mechanism is a public management process that emphasizes the establishment of trust relationship between various subjects within the government and between multiple subjects such as the government and non-government based on the needs of the interest community,so as to achieve the advantages of collaborative governance.It is an important measure to improve the national storm surge disaster management system and realize the modernization of disaster management capacity.It is also the trend of the government to improve public management.Based on the results of relevant national bulletins,the storm surge disaster is selected which is the most characteristic of Marine disasters in the scope of marine public management.We select Zhejiang Province as the research area,which is heavily affected by storm surge disaster.Based on the case subjects of previous major storm surge disasters in Zhejiang Province,we analyze the specific measures taken by relevant subjects to deal with storm surge disasters.This paper presents the current situation of the participants and the cooperation problems among the participants,finds out the causes of the problems,studies and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the coordination management among the participants,provides certain ideas for further developing the disaster prevention and reduction and emergency management of storm surge disasters in coastal areas in order to improve the understanding of multiple subjects on the emergency management of storm surge disasters.

System Development for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment Based on WebG IS for Tianjin Binhai New Area

It is imperative to develop a risk assessment system for quickly predicting storm surge disaster due to the vulnerability of Tianjin Binhai New Area. The flood routing model with user-defined breaches was firstly estab- lished based on the seed spread algorithm in order to achieve a rapid forecasting of storm surge flood information. Furthermore, fuzzy mathematics was utilized to identify the storm disaster grade, and the hazard mapping was con- ducted to visually obtain the hazard spatial and temporal distribution. Finally, the flood routing visuaUzation method was proposed based on numerical simulation of storm surge to achieve the reappearance scene of dynamic evolution process. The developed system can play a vital role in the management and decision-making of sea dyke mitigation engineering in Tianjin Binhai New Area.

Discussion on evaluating the vulnerability of storm surge hazard bearing bodies in the coastal areas of Wenzhou

Wenzhou is a region on the coast of China where storm surges are frequent and serious. Starting with society, economy, land utilization, and anti-disaster cap- ability, the vulnerability of each county in the coastal region of Wenzhou was evaluated. The counties were then divided into mild, moderate, heavy, and extremely heavy fragile areas by choosing 15 factors to establish an evaluation index system, using principal component analysis to set the weight of each factor. The results show that all of the counties fit into the categories of heavy and extremely heavy fragile areas except for Pingyang county, which is mild. There is no significant difference in storm surge vulnerability among all counties in the Wenzhou coastal region, which is highly associated with the general balance of socioeconomic development in the Zhejiang coastal region and the orientation of government policies. This research provides a method for evaluating vulnerability to storm surge. Evaluation results can provide the basis for responses to storm surge, contributing to disaster prevention and mitigation planning, and regional sustainable development planning.

Studies on marine dynamic disasters

Marine dynamic disasters,including storm surges,huge waves,and sea ice,are the most harmful natural disasters aff ecting coastal countries in the world.Under the infl uence of global climate change,the mechanisms,frequencies,and damage severity of marine dynamic disasters are exhibiting new characteristics.The enormity,unpredictability,and chain eff ects of these disasters have become increasingly prominent,and the losses endured by coastal countries around the world have been increasing year by year.Therefore,the prediction of,risk assessment for,and emergency response to marine dynamic disasters are important issues for disaster prevention and mitigation worldwide.

1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害时空分布特征

历史上江苏沿海曾频发2类风暴潮灾害,给当地带来了巨大损失。建立该地区长时间尺度的风暴潮灾害序列对了解过去与预测未来意义重大。以历史文献、地方志、海洋灾害公报等记载的风暴潮资料为基础,建立了风暴潮灾害识别体系,重建了1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害序列,分析了风暴潮灾害时空变化规律,探究了其与气候异常和黄河、长江入海口变迁之间的关系。结果表明:江苏沿海地区主要受台风风暴潮灾害的影响,1300—2019年间共发生246次风暴潮灾害,平均周期为2.9年,且近100年来发生频率有增大的趋势;小波分析结果显示,风暴潮灾害年际变化存在17年、61年和115年的时间尺度周期,其中115年周期最为明显。海气相互作用影响下,厄尔尼诺活跃年江苏沿海台风风暴潮灾害偏少;气温与台风风暴潮灾害频次有一定的正相关性,但其影响机制尚不明确。盐城、南通和苏州为风暴潮灾害高发地区,常州和无锡发生频率较小。在气候变暖与江苏海岸冲淤变化的作用下,1855年后盐城和南通地区风暴潮灾害发生频率增加,连云港地区明显增加;随着海岸线的变迁与长江河口的演变,镇江、扬州、泰州与苏锡常地区受风暴潮灾害影响减少。

基于韧性视角的福建沿海风暴潮风险综合评估研究

本文基于城市安全韧性三角形模型,构建韧性城市视角下的风暴潮灾害综合风险评价框架,采用2011—2020年福建省33个沿海县(区、市)数据,通过城市适灾韧性评价指标体系,科学评价福建沿海城市适灾韧性水平时空分异特征,借助地理信息分析工具,综合风暴潮灾害危险性、脆弱性和城市韧性的评价结果,实现福建省域尺度风暴潮灾害综合风险区划。结果表明:(1)福建省2020年沿海城市适灾韧性水平从高到低依次为:福州、厦门、漳州、泉州、宁德、莆田;(2)随着各沿海城市适灾韧性水平的稳步提升,福建省风暴潮灾情等级指数呈下降趋势;(3)风暴潮综合风险I级区主要分布在莆田的兴化湾、湄洲湾沿岸;(4)在灾害防御建议方面,应重点关注河口、喇叭型湾口等地区,应重点防范北部路径和中部路径的台风风暴潮,应因地制宜制定海洋防灾减灾对策和韧性城市建设规划。

协同治理视角下海洋灾害经济损失的影响分析

协同治理机制是强调政府内部各主体间及政府与非政府等多元主体间基于利益共同体需要,彼此间建立信赖的关系,达到协作治理优势的公共管理过程。提升政府间跨部门协同治理能力是完善国家风暴潮灾害治理体系和实现灾害治理能力现代化的重要举措,也是政府完善公共管理的趋势所在。本文依托国家相关公报成果,在海洋公共管理范围内选择海洋灾害中最具特点的风暴潮灾害这一特定灾种作为研究,并选取受风暴潮灾害影响较大的浙江省作为研究区域,根据浙江省以往重大风暴潮灾害案例主体情况,分析各相关主体应对风暴潮灾害的具体措施,探索参与应对主体的现状及主体之间的协作问题,找出造成该问题的原因,进一步研究并提出应对主体间协同治理的对策和建议,以期为进一步开展我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害防灾减灾应急管理提供思路,提高多元主体对风暴潮灾害应急管理工作的认识。

极端天气下轨道交通水害致灾因子时空分布特征

近年来,在与气候变化相关的多种极端天气因素的相互作用下,洪涝事件对城市及轨道交通系统造成了严重影响。以粤港澳大湾区典型沿海城市洪涝事件为例,研究了轨道交通水害的主要致灾因子(极端降雨和台风风暴潮)及相关特征参数,揭示了其时空分布特征。研究表明:①近年来,广州市降雨量、降雨强度均明显增加,但降雨历时减少,降雨整体呈现增多且趋于集中的极端化趋势。广州市降雨时间分布在年内存在两个极值区间,第一极值区间与广州市“龙舟水”相关,第二极值区间主要受台风影响。广州市降雨空间分布不均,主要受季风及地理位置影响。②近10 a影响广东省的29场台风风暴潮灾害集中发生在7~10月,该时间与降雨第二极值区间重合。在对近年广东省典型轨道交通水害事件进行总结后发现,水害高发期与两个极值区间重合。虽然广东省台风强度存在缓慢降低趋势,但由于广东省沿海城市遭受台风风暴潮灾害的频次不断上升,且粤中地区密集分布有广东省全部的地下轨道交通系统,未来广东省轨道交通系统水害风险将随着极端天气时空分布特征的变化进一步加大。研究成果可为未来城市轨道交通水害致灾特征研究提供依据,为城市防灾减灾提供参考。

气候变化背景下珠江口地区台风风暴潮和流域洪水遭遇事件的风险探究

珠江三角洲是我国开放程度最高、经济活力最强的区域之一,该地区易受超强台风风暴潮和流域特大洪水等极端事件的侵袭,其复合作用的风险也不可忽视。全球气候变化更是增添了珠江三角洲地区防洪安全的复杂性。系统分析珠江口地区复合洪水的发生条件与致灾风险,提出精准防灾减灾措施,对保障珠江三角洲地区的长治久安和可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究表明,珠江口地区的台风风暴潮和流域洪水的间隔窗口期呈逐步缩小趋势,二者叠加产生复合灾害的潜在风险呈逐步增加趋势。

近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价

采用1990～2009年风暴潮灾害损失数据,选择中国东部沿海地区11个省市为研究对象,借鉴沿海脆弱性指数(Coastal Vulnerability Index,CVI)方法的评估思路,构建风暴潮灾害脆弱性指数SSVI(Storm Surge Vulnerabil-ity Index,SSVI),采用加法模型评价中国沿海省区风暴潮灾害的物理脆弱性。结果表明:沿海地区风暴潮脆弱性存在较大年际变化;高和很高脆弱性等级主要分布于东南沿海各省区,低和很低脆弱性等级主要分别于北部沿海各省区,而中等脆弱性等级空间分布则变化较大。

滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险评估研究

建立了一套基于非结构三角网、适用于滨海新区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,在陆地区域分辨率达到50～80m,对两次典型的温带风暴潮进行模拟得到满意结果。计算了塘沽站19a平均天文高潮值并根据对历史天气过程的分析,选取制定了4个强度的天气系统,而后模拟得到不同强度下滨海新区的温带风暴潮最大淹没范围。综合考虑风暴潮淹没风险与承灾体脆弱性制作出滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险图。结果表明:大部分地区都存在风暴潮灾害风险,沿海地区风险大于内陆,其中天津新港、临港工业区、海河北岸地区、大港地区南部的灾害风险最大。

物联网技术在救灾物资配送管理系统中的应用

针对传统救灾物资配送管理系统存在的数据采集非自动化、物资运送流程无法实时监控、物资实时调度性差等缺点,采用物联网技术构建了一种结合硬件和软件的应用系统,硬件主要是用来采集系统需要的核心数据,包括存储在RFID电子标签中的物资基本属性数据、各种传感器感知的物资环境数据以及卫星和GPS芯片协同处理得到的物资坐标信息。这些信息通过GSM无线网络传送到互联网中的数据处理中心服务器,服务器中的救灾物资信息处理子系统对这些信息进行展示、分析和评估,利用这些实时监控数据的分析判断结果,能够对整个物资配送运输过程进行一个全面的辅助决策,同时对一些突发情况进行事先预警。

基于GIS的风暴潮减灾辅助决策信息系统

风暴潮是指在大气强迫力作用下局部海面的异常升降现象,是影响我国沿海地区最严重的海洋灾害,风暴潮给我国造成的损失平均每年达上百亿元,风暴潮科技减灾已成为一个重要的研究方向。提供了基于Oracle和GIS技术的风暴潮减灾信息化、网络化实现框架,阐述了风暴潮减灾数据库设计、风暴潮数值预报模型集成、基于GIS的减灾辅助决策分析、基于3S技术的灾害监测和调查以及基于GIS的灾损评估等5个方面内容。

山东省9216号强热带气旋风暴期间的海岸侵蚀灾害

本文比较详细地报导了山东省沿岸在９２１６号强热带气旋风暴潮期间的海岸侵蚀灾害情况，分析了灾害的形成原因、特点。最后讨论了与之有关的问题。

我国沿海风暴潮灾害发生频率空间分布研究

基于我国沿海验潮站和水文站典型重现期数据,综合考虑风暴增水和超警戒潮位,分析了我国沿海一般潮灾、较大潮灾、严重潮灾、特大潮灾的发生频率,揭示了不同等级潮灾的发生频率在我国沿海空间分布特征。结果表明我国沿海大部分地区受风暴潮灾害影响,鸭绿江口沿岸、河北秦皇岛和唐山北部沿岸、成山头-青岛沿岸、广西防城港沿岸、海南东南部和南部沿岸风暴潮灾害发生的强度和频率都不大;渤海湾、莱州湾、长江口、杭州湾等区域是风暴潮易发区,发生特大潮灾概率较低但严重潮灾发生的频率较高;福建北部福州到浙江南部台风沿岸、广东珠江口到阳江沿岸、雷州半岛东部沿岸是风暴潮灾害严重区,特大潮灾发生频率最高。基于不同等级潮灾发生频率的空间分布提出了我国沿海风暴潮灾害防御对策与建议。

福建省风暴潮时空分布特征分析

分析20世纪50年代以来福建省7个有代表性验潮站的近700站次台风风暴潮过程,利用建立的风暴潮评价指标,对福建省风暴潮的时空分布特征开展研究。结果表明：福建省风暴潮主要出现在7月至10月,其中以8月最多,9月次之;风暴潮灾害主要发生8月和9月,以9月居多。各级风暴潮中,增水为50~100 cm的风暴潮次数约占70%,沿海各区域中,风暴潮频发区和严重区为闽江口,风暴潮次数明显偏多、偏强;风暴潮灾害频发区为闽江口,风暴潮灾害严重区则依次为闽江口和宁德区域。1954-2008年间,风暴潮发生次数总体呈现上升趋势;风暴潮灾害呈较明显的上升趋势。

我国南海沿海台风风暴潮灾害分析及减灾对策

系统总结了我国南海沿海台风风暴潮的生成特点、灾害损失发生规律、灾害特征、灾害成因及强度影响因素等.重点讨论1990—2009年间台风风暴潮的特点,指出近些年来南海沿海台风风暴潮发生频率及其强度均有增加的趋势,特大台风风暴潮发生的频率及损失强度也加大了.最后针对如何有效防御台风风暴潮灾害进行了探讨,以期为珠江三角洲以及海南等地区预防和抵御台风风暴潮灾害提供科学依据.

风暴潮灾害风险的精细化评估研究

以龙口市北部沿海风暴潮灾害为研究对象,结合风与浪潮致灾因子、空间与地形等孕灾环境、承灾体类型等影响风暴潮灾害损失变化的有关因素,基于GIS空间分析技术建立了风暴潮灾害风险评估的定量模型,开展了风暴潮灾害风险的精细化评估。结果表明,在风速增大的情况下,淹没范围和可能性损失程度都相应增大;可能性损失呈有规律分布,离海岸线越近,风险值越大。研究结果可供沿海地区的风暴潮灾害风险区划和风险管理参考。