Characteristics Analysis on Short-Time Heavy Rainfall during the Flood Season in Shanxi Province, China

In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic research on short-term heavy precipitation events in Shanxi Province. Based on hourly precipitation data during the flood season (May to September) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi, China in 1980-2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season are analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the short-time heavy rainfall in the flood season in Shanxi Province is mainly at the grade of 20 - 30 mm/h, with an average of 97 stations having short-time heavy rainfall each year, accounting for 89% of the total stations. The short-time heavy rainfall mainly concentrated in July and August, and the maximal rain intensity in history appeared at 23 - 24 on June 17, 1991 in Yongji, Shanxi is 91.7 mm/h. During the flood season, the short-time heavy rainfalls always occur at 16 - 18 pm, and have slightly different concentrated time in different months. The main peaks of June, July and August are at 16, 17 and 18 respectively, postponed for one hour. Short-time heavy rainfall overall has the distribution that the south is more than the north and the east less than the west in Shanxi area. In the last 36 years, short-time heavy rainfall has a slight increasing trend in Shanxi, but not significant. There is a clear 4-year period of oscillation and inter-decadal variation. It has a good correlation between the total precipitation and times of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season.

The Upstream ＂Strong Signals＂ of the Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau during a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Yangtze River Basin

A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin （YRB） during July 11-13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream ＂strong signals＂ of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau （TP）. The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July （temporal resolution： 6 hours）. By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream ＂strong signals＂ related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TE The ＂convergence zone＂ of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this ＂convergence zone＂ coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence]convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream ＂strong signals＂ are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.

An HHT-based method to eliminate short-time strong disturbance from measured signals of bridge

According to the characteristic that Hilbert-Huang transform （HHT） can detect abnormity in signals, an HHT-based method to eliminate short-time strong disturbance was proposed. The signal with short-time strong disturbance was decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions （IMFs） and a residue by the empirical mode decomposition （EMD）. The instantaneous amplitudes and frequencies of each IMF were calculated. And at abnormal section, instantaneous amplitudes and frequencies were fired according to the data at normal section, replacing the fitted data for the original ones. A new set of IMFs was reconstructed by using the processed instantaneous amplitudes and frequencies. For the residue, abnormal fluctuations could be directly eliminated. And a new signal with the short-time strong disturbance eliminated was reconstructed by superposing all the new IMFs and the residue, The numerical simulation shows that there is a good correlation between the reconstructed signal and the undisturbed signal, The correlation coefficient is equal to 0.999 1. The processing results of the measured strain signal of a bridge with short-time strong disturbance verify the practicability of the method.

Comparative Analysis of Two Short-time Strong Precipitation Processes

By means of conceptual model prediction, two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen on June 12th and 14th, 2008 were analyzed from the aspects of real precipitation, weather situation, physical parameter and radar echo. The results showed that two short-time strong precipitation processes had complete different weather backgrounds, so physical quantities which could reflect atmospheric thermal and dynamic characteristic were different, as well as the characteristic and evolution process of radar echo, and it revealed that two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen had various formation mechanisms and evolution processes. Therefore, many data should be combined to grasp different vantage points in precipitation forecast.

Characteristics of Radar Echo Parameters and Microphysical Structure Simulation of a Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Supercell

By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.

2020年雾灵山人工低频强声波增雨和消雾试验

为了研究人工低频强声波增雨和消雾作业手段的效果,使用最大声压级为155 dB的电声低频强声波装置原型机,于2020年8—9月在河北省雾灵山开展增雨和消雾外场作业观测试验。具有明显消雾效果的两个典型个例显示:作业开始后2~3 min内尺度小于10μm的雾滴减少,尺度大于10μm的雾滴增多;随后大部分尺度的雾滴明显减少,10 min内能见度可从小于100 m回升至最高1000 m。在风速、风向与消雾效果的关系方面,消雾效果明显的个例均发生在平均风速小于1.5 m·s^(-1)且风向可使雾能够途经声波装置影响范围近侧的条件下,而平均风速大于2m·s^(-1)的个例能见度几乎未出现趋势性变化。在一次地面平均风速为1.4 m·s^(-1)的对流云增雨作业中观测到符合试验预期的结果,开始作业后的3 min内地面雨强从0.3 mm·h^(-1)迅速增至7 mm·h^(-1)以上,并观测到出现迅速但维持时间较短的大雨滴。其他增雨个例在作业时段的平均风速均超过3 m·s^(-1),可能受风速偏大和观测点单一的影响,未能观测到明确且一致的增雨证据。

四川宜宾一次暴雨天气过程分析

利用常规观测资料、卫星资料,从大尺度环流形势、热力和不稳定条件等方面,诊断分析了2021年9月3日宜宾市一次暴雨天气过程。结果表明:此次暴雨是在中高纬两槽一脊环流背景和副高稳定少动的环流形势下,由高原低槽东移、冷空气南下入侵、低空急流和低层切变线等诸多条件共同导致的一次天气过程,其中偏南暖湿气流输送的不稳定能量为暴雨的发生提供了所需的能量条件。此次降雨活动,高度场的预报与实况较为一致,预报效果较好。

强降雨条件下某“V”形边坡稳定性分析

以强降雨条件下沟壑的两侧边坡为研究对象,针对在未降雨且未支护、降雨但未支护和降雨且支护3种条件下沟壑两侧边坡的变形情况及安全系数进行有限元分析,并探究了支护结构在该情况下的受力特点。结果表明:强降雨条件下两侧边坡的最大塑性应变发生在沟壑的底部,并沿四周方向塑性应变逐渐减小。强降雨会同时降低两侧边坡的力学稳定性,为降低降雨对边坡稳定性的影响,可在沟壑两侧边坡设置单排抗滑桩。在施工过程中,抗滑桩应当加强其底部材料的抗剪切能力。

江西修河流域大暴雨短时强降水特征分析

文章简要介绍了降水资料来源和分析方法,统计了江西修河流域2013—2022年大暴雨过程并分析了天气形势特征,最后从典型天气形势、雷达回波特征方面分析了短时强降水特征,所得结论以期为研究流域大暴雨、减轻洪涝灾害提供参考与依据。

风廓线雷达产品在冰雹天气过程中的应用

该文利用威宁县2022年6月2日一次冰雹天气过程风廓线雷达资料和威宁国家基准气候站降水资料,采用数理统计等方法对此次天气过程的风廓线雷达特征进行分析。结果表明:冰雹、短时强降水开始前,低空急流的建立和垂直风切变的加强,急流造成的辐合加上近地层风向的切变作用,为冰雹和强降水的产生提供了很好的动力条件;冰雹和短时强降水开始发生时,2000 m高度以上有很大的正速度,可以作为一个指标判断对流发展的强弱情况;冰雹发生时折射结构常数(Cn^(2))值在-128~-110 dB之间,也能很好地反映冰雹等强对流天气的开始、增强和结束过程。

The influence of moderate ENSO on summer rainfall in eastern China and its comparison with strong ENSO

The 6 major ENSO events since 1979 are classified into the strong and moderate ENSO based on in-tensity. The composite analysis is performed to reveal the influence of ENSO on East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and summer rainfall in eastern China. It is shown that the influence is changed with the seasonal cycle in summer, with a weaker influence in June and a stronger influence in August, in-dicating a long lagged effect of ENSO on EASM. Besides, the circulation and rainfall anomalies caused by the strong ENSO are also stronger with an earlier starting time, while the influence of the moderate ENSO is evident in August. The composite summer rainfall in eastern China for the moderate ENSO exhibits a northern rainfall pattern, which is totally different from the classical ENSO-type rainfall pat-tern. Based on the composite analysis, two moderate ENSO years with a similar intensity (i.e., 1995 and 2003) are compared. The result shows that, the response of EASM to the moderate ENSO during June and July is, to a certain degree, modulated by the circulation systems in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and in the Southern Hemisphere, thereby inducing a different rainfall distribution in eastern China. In comparison with the strong ENSO in 1983, it is further revealed that, the strong ENSO plays a dominant role in summer rainfall anomalies in eastern China as well as in controlling the influence of the other factors on EASM. The strong ENSO is therefore different with the moderate ENSO.

湘潭2021年5月一次强降雨天气过程诊断及预报偏差分析

【目的】本研究对2021年5月湘潭地区一次强降雨天气过程进行诊断分析和预报偏差分析。【方法】分析采用常规天气资料、地面气象观测资料、雷达资料以及NCEP和ECMWF再分析资料。【结果】此次强降雨天气主要受高空槽、中低层切变和地面辐合线共同影响,绝对湿度的持续偏高、系统性的垂直上升运动和层结不稳定为此次天气过程提供了良好的水汽、动力和热力条件,是一次典型的大陆强对流型降雨,并有“列车效应”发生。【结论】虽然不同数值模式对此次天气过程预报总体效果不佳,但GRAPES-3KM的降雨量级预报和华南模式的降雨落区预报有一定的参考意义。

陇南“5·31”特大泥石流灾害成因分析

2 0 0 0年 5月 31日甘肃省岷县和宕昌县爆发了 1 50年一遇的特大泥石流灾害 ,造成的损失是陇南地区近 2 0年 ( 1 980年～ 1 999年 )滑坡、泥石流灾害总和的 76 %。利用陇南地区近 2 0年资料研究发现 :地质灾害与大气环流、降水强度等方面有密切的联系 ,降雨是造成滑坡、泥石流灾害的触发条件 ,不同地区、不同性质的降水造成的灾害不同。据此总结了陇南地区滑坡、泥石流灾害预报着眼点。

北京夏季强雷暴降水回波结构与闪电特征个例分析

利用北京市气象局短时临近交互预报系统（VIPS）资料，对2008年奥运会期间两次强降水天气过程雷达回波结构及闪电时空特征进行了细致分析。结果表明，局地性强雷暴降雨天气中，降雨率峰值与闪电活动峰值关系有超前也有略滞后的情况；关于云闪和地闪出现时间，云闪一般要超前地闪5～15min；强降水回波单体中，总闪电次数的70％以上出现在大于40dBZ的强回波区，当最大回波强度大于60dBZ时，云闪出现在强回波区的概率接近90％，说明回波强度越强，云闪出现在强回波区的概率越大；对云闪与雷达回波垂直结构分析发现，强降水单体中云闪发生的高度主要在6km以上，且云闪发生频数峰值出现在8～11km高度。

2008-2012年四川强小时雨强的时空分布特征

利用2008-2012年四川157个基本测站和895个区域自动站的逐时降水资料,通过统计诊断方法分析了四川的强小时雨强发生频次、极值的时空分布特征,得到如下主要结论:(1)四川每年出现20 mm·h^(-1)以上的强小时雨强达3537.8次,平均每年的强小时雨强极值均超过了100 mm·h^(-1),并在2012年呈一个跃升的趋势。(2)四川强小时雨强落区主要集中在四川盆地及攀西南部的大部分地区,且强降水高发中心主要位于从盆地向山脉过渡的纵向陡峭地形区。雨强极值超过了30 mm·h^(-1)的落区也集中在盆地及攀西地区。频次及雨强极值的变化与海拔有密切联系,迎风坡的陡峭过渡地形削弱了频次及雨强极值随海拔的增高而减少的速率。(3)频次的月变化比强小时雨强极值的月变化更显著。7月发生强小时雨强的次数最多,其次是8月,5月最少。6-9月雨强极值均超过100 mm·h^(-1)。(4)20 mm·h^(-1)和30 mm·h^(-1)以上的强小时雨强频次日变化均呈夜间活跃的单峰型特征,而50mm·h^(-1)以上的强小时雨强突发性较强,日变化呈多峰型结构,且盆地不同区域的日变化特征及峰值活跃时间也有较大差异。

井水位前驱波与气压、风、降雨及强震关系的分析

对山西朔州井与静乐井水位前驱波与气压、风、降雨及强震关系进行定量、半定量统计分析的结果表明,前驱波引起的井水位变幅与气压引起的井水位的水位变幅不一致,前驱波的周期与气压、风、降雨周期不匹配,出现的时间不同步,形态差异也很大,与短时间集中降雨也无明显的对应关系。前驱波与强震之间存在较好的对应关系,对应率在50%左右。井水位前驱波现象不是气压、风、降雨等干扰因素的短期突变所造成的,可能反映了大震前震源内部信息。

强降雨激励下松散岩堆路堑边坡稳定性分析

岩堆是我国西南高山峡谷区常见的不良地质体,其存在对高速公路边坡稳定性提出了严峻挑战。文章依托国家高速公路网规划中南北纵线G85高速公路工程,运用数值模拟的方法研究了深厚岩堆拉锚抗滑桩路堑边坡在自然、强降雨和地震状态下的稳定性,对比分析了岩堆体在自然状态、地震状态与强降雨条件下岩堆体边坡变形破坏特征及锚索轴力变化规律。计算结果表明,开挖对岩堆体变形有较大影响,岩堆体自然状态和暴雨状态下,在无任何加固措施时整体稳定性相对较低;增加抗滑桩和锚索加固后,安全系数均有所提高,潜在滑动面整体向下移至抗滑桩下部,加固作用效果显著。研究成果为岩堆路堑边坡工程设计与施工提供了参考依据。

城市化进程对北京地区降水的影响分析

用北京20个基本气象站1978—2009年的日降水观测资料以及北京地区水文总站遍布全市的82个雨量站资料,讨论了北京地区降水分布的特征及其城市效应的影响。得到如下结论:(1)北京地区降水量的贡献以中雨以上降水为主。30多年来各级降水除了中雨趋势不明显以外,其他都呈现减小趋势。北京地区降雨量的减少,主要是由于大雨以上量级雨量减少所造成的。(2)近30 a来整个区域降水日数呈减少趋势:西部、西北部及北部山区降水日数较多,越靠近城区降水日数越少。(3)当大尺度降水系统较弱或者局地性强降水系统时,城市效应明显,即相对于区域平均而言,城区及下风方局地降雨增加;而大尺度天气系统较强时,城市效应基本被掩盖。(4)从强降水分布看,1980s以后随着城市化进城加快,短时强降雨局地性特征明显,降雨分布不均,降雨中心的面积和强度明显缩小。这种分布可以在城市热岛分布特征上得到一些合理的解释。

汶川地震强震区地震诱发滑坡与后期降雨诱发滑坡控制因子耦合分析

本文以汶川地震强震区北川县典型研究区为例,利用高分辨率航片、SPOT5卫星图像对北川县典型研究区进行了"5.12"地震之后和"9.24"降雨之后诱发的滑坡解译,解译结果显示:"5.12"地震诱发滑坡1999个,"9.24"强降雨诱发滑坡828个,"9.24"强降雨导致原有地震滑坡面积扩大的滑坡150个。研究表明:地震和强降雨都是诱发滑坡的动力成因,"9.24"强降雨诱发的滑坡面积是"5.12"地震诱发滑坡面积的1/4倍,强降雨诱发滑坡的数量增加了41.4%;强降雨不仅诱发新的滑坡,而且促使原来地震滑坡复活,并扩大其面积,强降雨导致地震诱发的滑坡面积扩大了原面积的68.7%。同时,在遥感解译数据基础之上,开展地震诱发滑坡与降雨诱发滑坡规模对比和控制因子耦合分析及地震与降雨耦合灾害链模式研究,为进一步分析研究地震灾区滑坡的产生、发展趋势、危险性和风险评价等预测预报提供科学依据,也为汶川震区恢复重建中的减灾防灾提供决策参考。

小兴安岭典型温带森林土壤呼吸对强降雨的响应

森林土壤呼吸是全球碳循环的重要组成部分,其对降雨格局的变化如何响应,是当前全球变化研究中的热点问题。本研究以小兴安岭地区原始温带森林(云冷杉红松林)为研究对象,使用SF-3000土壤气体通量自动测量系统,对雨季不同时期4次强降雨前后的土壤呼吸速率、土壤呼吸的组分和相关环境因子进行了连续观测。结果表明:1)土壤温度和含水量协同影响土壤呼吸强度。降雨是影响甚至改变控制土壤呼吸(Rs)的关键环境因子,强降雨使土壤含水量激增,并对土壤温度也有不同程度的影响。雨季初期强降雨对Rs的扰动作用相对较小,雨季中期强降雨可抑制Rs,在雨季结束后强降雨可促进Rs。2)在雨季不同时期的强降雨均不同程度的影响了土壤异养呼吸(Rh)与土壤呼吸的比例(Rh/Rs),相对于土壤自养呼吸(Ra),短时极强降雨对Rh的抑制作用更强。3)加入水分修正系数c的Rs与T5、W5指数关系模型可更好的表征土壤含水量和土壤温度对土壤呼吸的影响,不同雨季时期的强降雨均对土壤的温度敏感系数(Q10)有着显著的影响。强降雨使得土壤对水分的敏感性降低,处于雨季不同时期的土壤水分敏感性表现为:在雨季的开始和结束后,土壤呼吸的水分敏感性较高,而雨季中期的水分敏感性较低。