Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Judicial Typification of Human Rights Protection Amid Climate Risks:Legal Analysis and Path Choice

In accordance with the canonical sources of the right of legal claim,the targets of judicial review,and the intensity of judicial review intervention policies,lawsuits that directly and indirectly activate the function of human rights protection amid climate risks can be divided into the following categories:climate change lawsuits based on international human rights law,climate change lawsuits based on the domestic constitution,and judicial review of administrative procedures.Due to the singularity of the legal status and force of international human rights law,its“direct applicability”and“explanatory applicability”limit its function in protecting human rights;Climate change lawsuits based on domestic constitutions have the identification of basic right of claim,the judgment of basic rights and function,and the scope of state obligations as the judgment process.Factors such as the difficulty in right typification caused by the integration of climate law and interests,the expansion of discretionary and administrative power in legislation under the context of risk prevention,and the functional boundary of the judicial system cause the dysfunction of the dichotomous review standard of positive rights and negative rights.Procedural rights represent an important dimension of climate-related human rights.With the standardization of administrative procedures on addressing climate risks,the courts are gradually reinforcing decision-making authorities’obligation of due diligence through judicial review of risk decision-making procedures,thus indirectly guaranteeing the realization of tangible human rights.

Associations of social participation, demographic, socioeconomic and disease factors with nutritional risk in a group of older Hong Kong adults

Aims: To identify the impact of social participation, socio-demographic, socio-economic and disease factors on nutritional risk among older persons in Hong Kong. Background: Few published work has investigated the relative risks of social participation, demographic, socioeconomic and disease factors with malnutrition in community-living older people, this study is to investigate the associations of these risk factors on the nutritional status in better nutrition support for the old age group. Design: A crosssectional study. Methods: It was a secondary analysis of a database in a mobile community centre between January 2008 and December 2009. One thousand seven hundred and thirty one participants aged between 54 and 103 were collected. With 319 full Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) completed, the participants’ demographic, socio-economic data, diseases, and nutritional status were analyzed with relative risk and 95% confidence interval level to identify the factors that make them vulnerable to nutritional risk. Results: The prevalence of malnutrition in the community-dwelling old was 3.95% and 83.7% of the sample was at risk of malnutrition. Living on allowances, young old who was socially engaged and good relationship with family members were at less risk to malnutrition. Conclusions: Special attention should be taken to these groups as they are prone to develop malnutrition.

Main active faults and seismic activity along the Yangtze River Economic Belt:Based on remote sensing geological survey

The Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)spans three terrain steps in China and features diverse topography that is characterized by significant differences in geological structure and presentday crustal deformation.Active faults and seismic activity are important geological factors for the planning and development of the YREB.In this paper,the spatial distribution and activity of 165 active faults that exist along the YREB have been compiled from previous findings,using both remote-sensing data and geological survey results.The crustal stability of seven particularly noteworthy typical active fault zones and their potential effects on the crustal stability of the urban agglomerations are analyzed.The main active fault zones in the western YREB,together with the neighboring regional active faults,make up an arc fault block region comprising primarily of Sichuan-Yunnan and a“Sichuan-Yunnan arc rotational-shear active tectonic system”strong deformation region that features rotation,shear and extensional deformation.The active faults in the central-eastern YREB,with seven NE-NNE and seven NW-NWW active faults(the“7-longitudinal,7-horizontal”pattern),macroscopically make up a“chessboard tectonic system”medium-weak deformation region in the geomechanical tectonic system.They are also the main geological constraints for the crustal stability of the YREB.

New risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes

This paper presents a new risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes. This new empirical-statistical slope stability assessment methodology(SSAM) is intended for use by geotechnical engineers at both the design review and operational stages of a mine's life to categorise the risk of an excavated coal mine slope. A likelihood of failure is determined using a new slope stability classification system for excavated coal mine slopes developed using a database of 119 intact and failed case studies sourced from open cut coal mines in Australia. Consequence of failure is based on slope height and stand-off distance at the toe of the excavated slope. Results are presented in a new risk matrix, with slope risk being divided into low, medium and high categories. The SSAM is put forward as a new risk assessment methodology to assess the potential for, and consequence of, excavated coal mine slope failure.Unlike existing classification systems, assumptions about the likely failure mode or mechanism are not required. Instead, the SSAM applies an approach which compares the conditions present within the excavated slope face, with the known past performance of slopes with similar geotechnical and geometrical conditions, to estimate the slope's propensity for failure. The SSAM is novel in that it considers the depositional history of strata in an excavated slope and how this sequence affects slope stability. It is further novel in that it does not require explicit measurements of intact rock, rock mass and/or defect strength to rapidly calculate a slope's likelihood of failure and overall risk. Ratings can be determined entirely from visual observations of the excavated slope face. The new SSAM is designed to be used in conjunction with existing slope stability assessment tools.

Simulating Sustainable Urban Development by Incorporating Social-ecological Risks into a Constrained CA Model

A key solution to urban and global sustainability is effective planning of sustainable urban development, for which geo-techniques especially cellular automata(CA) models can be very informative. However, existing CA models for simulating sustainable urban development, though increasingly refined in modeling urban growth, capture mostly the environmental aspect of sustainability. In this study, an adaptable risk-constrained CA model was developed by incorporating the social-ecological risks of urban development. A three-dimensional risk assessment framework was proposed that explicitly considers the environmental constraints on, system resilience to, and potential impacts of urban development. The risk-constrained model was then applied to a case study of Sheyang County, Jiangsu Province in the eastern China. Comparative simulations of urban development in four contrasting scenarios were conducted, namely, the environmental suitability constrained scenario, the ecological risk constrained scenario, the social risk constrained scenario, and the integrated social-ecological risk constrained scenario. The simulations suggested that considering only environmental suitability in the CA simulation of urban development overestimated the potential of sustainable urban growth, and that the urbanization mode changed from city expansion that was more constrained by social risks to town growth that was more constrained by ecological risks. Our risk-constrained CA model can better simulate sustainable urban development; additionally, we provide suggestions on the sustainable urban development in Sheyang and on future model development.

基于溃决机理的堰塞湖溃决快速风险评估方法研究

堰塞湖发生后极易形成溃决灾害链,亟需构建基于有限数据包的溃决快速定量风险评估方法。通过快速获取堰塞湖影响区域的三维地理信息,构建溃决-致灾的快速定量评估模型。基于堰塞湖坝体颗粒级配组成,实现精细化、简单化的稳定性快速评价;基于冲蚀特性和崩塌过程溃决机理,实现溃口流量变化过程分析与洪水演进过程模拟(1 h内);基于极限学习机网络模型建立风险人口与生命损失的函数,实现了生命损失评估预警,明晰了溃决-致灾的灾害链效应。将其应用于唐家山堰塞湖实例发现:研究方法能够较好地预警溃决灾害链;开挖引流槽可降低堰塞湖的溃口峰值流量、最大流速、溃口宽度和溃决库容,但无法防止溃决发生;若不开挖引流槽,溃决库容将达到3.14×10^(8) m^(3),溃口峰值流量达到9343.35 m^(3)/s,溃口顶宽增大到151.6 m,开挖引流槽可使溃口峰值流量减少12.6%,溃决库容减少36.5%,降低了堰塞湖的溃决风险;当提前预警时间超过2 h后,及时疏散下游淹没范围内的居民可使生命损失率降低为0。研究方法可实现堰塞湖应急处置时的快速定量风险评估,并为其应急处置决策提供技术支撑。

基于集对-组合赋权的填埋场失稳风险评价方法

我国填埋场具有高水位、高气压的特征,现有规范和研究中虽提出了不同的稳定性评价指标和分级标准,但对指标权重和综合风险评估缺乏系统性研究。为此,建立了涵盖填埋场几何构型、垃圾土抗剪强度、液气赋存情况和降雨4类7个指标的填埋场失稳风险评价指标体系,通过参数敏感性分析实现5级分类(稳定、较稳定、基本稳定、不稳定、极不稳定),并采用集对分析构建指标联系度函数。采用指标重要性排序法,通过参数敏感性分析、工程失稳事故、文献关注度统计和博弈论组合赋权,确定了评价指标的综合权重。最后,将指标综合权重与指标联系度函数耦合,建立了填埋场失稳风险综合评价模型,并应用于一实际填埋场工程中,与现场实际监测数据结果一致,验证了评价模型的准确性和有效性。

Are Socially Responsible Banks More Risk Averse and Dividends Providers?Empirical Evidence from a Developing Economy

Purpose:This study examines whether socially responsible firms are uninterested in risk-taking and whether socially responsible banks are more dividend providers than socially irresponsible ones.We conducted the analysis using the least-squares method for 290-panel data observations of 32 commercial banks operating in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2018.Methodology:We employed Ordinary Least Squares Regression for 290-panel data observations of 32 commercial banks operating in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2018 using EViews software version-8.Moreover,we conducted descriptive analysis and correlations using SPSS software.We considered CSRI and CSRPI as the indicators of corporate social responsibility,dividend per share and stock dividend as a proxy of dividend policy,LEV(leverage),and non-performing loan to total loan as the indicators of financial risk,and lastly,Z score as the indicator of financial stability.Findings:Studies have shown that banks prioritizing social responsibility tend to pay dividends to their shareholders more frequently and consistently than banks that do not.In particular,banks that invest heavily in corporate social responsibility(CSR)tend to maintain a stable dividend payout,which can help address agency problems that arise from overinvestment in the CSR sector.Additionally,we found that banks that make huge expenditures on CSR also seem to have a low eagerness for risk-taking.Again,we found that the financial stability of a socially responsible bank is high and stable enough,which will help efficiently handle the bank’s financial risks,reduce price fluctuations,and increase financial assets that generally influence a bank’s monetary stability.Implications:Banks implementing fruitful CSR strategies can produce substantial shareholder advantages through high dividend payout levels.An expansion in CSR-related expenditure does not prompt a cut-down or reduce the portion of income paid out as dividends to shareholders.Therefore,the Output of our study will help provide critical information and a thorough understanding of corporate social responsibility and its association with the dividend policy,risk,and financial stability in the banking sector.This will also be useful to the researcher,students,and corporate policymakers while making a critical decision about whether a firm should make expenditures on CSR purposes,how it impacts a firm’s dividend decision,and its connection with its overall risk and financial stability.According to the study,corporate social responsibility should be integrated into a firm’s mission and strategy rather than appearing to be a mere act of generosity.Originality/Value:This study uniquely considers CSR,dividend policy,risk,and financial stability simultaneously in a developing country.Besides,the three-dimensional measures of CSR used in the research focused on developing the economy are a precious contribution.

缬菌胺和代森锰锌的残留特征及膳食暴露风险评估

本文建立了缬菌胺、代森锰锌及其代谢物乙撑硫脲(ethylenethiourea,ETU)在葡萄和黄瓜中的痕量分析方法,基于储藏稳定性研究阐明了其田间残留特征,并结合我国膳食结构评估了膳食暴露风险。样本经乙腈提取,衍生化后盐析离心,分散固相萃取(d-SPE)净化,超高效液相色谱质谱联用仪(UPLC-MS/MS)检测。缬菌胺、代森锰锌和ETU在葡萄和黄瓜基质中的平均回收率分别为84%~103%、86%~106%和83%~104%,相对标准偏差分别为1.1%~5.7%、0.8%~11.4%、4.4%~11.5%;-20℃避光条件下能在黄瓜和葡萄基质中分别稳定储藏720 d和758 d。缬菌胺和代森锰锌在黄瓜中的半衰期(1.7~2.4 d和1.4~2.7 d)均比在葡萄(6.5~30.1 d和8.6~12.8 d)中的短,而在葡萄中的最终残留浓度(<0.01~0.69 mg/kg)均比黄瓜(<0.01~0.16 mg/kg)中的高。两种果蔬中代森锰锌对儿童群体和一般人群急性膳食风险(%ARfD)分别为0.70%~3.68%和0.48%~2.53%,远低于100%;而代森锰锌和缬菌胺的联合慢性膳食风险为201.3%~831.7%,其中代森锰锌占比99.9%。可见,缬菌胺不会对我国消费者产生不可接受的膳食风险,但需警惕代森锰锌潜在高暴露风险,持续关注其在食物链中的生物累积风险,同步优化膳食结构,为其科学合理使用和健康风险规避提供理论依据。

基于SNA的大型工程项目关键利益相关者和社会稳定风险因素识别

大型工程项目关乎国计民生、影响深远,在多种因素的作用下易引发社会稳定风险,甚至可能引发更深层次的社会危机,为识别出大型工程项目的关键利益相关者和社会稳定风险因素,大型工程项目社会稳定风险研究势在必行。首先,收集61个大型工程项目社会稳定风险事件。然后,通过共现的方法得到“利益相关者-社会稳定风险因素”2-模网络,将数据导入Netdraw软件中,形成可视化的利益相关者-社会稳定风险因素关系网络图,并利用社会网络分析软件Ucinet计算2-模网络的度数中心度。最后,将2-模网络转化为2个1-模网络(利益相关者关系网络/社会稳定风险因素关系网络),识别出大型工程项目的关键利益相关者和社会稳定风险因素。研究结果表明:“利益相关者-社会稳定风险”2-模网络整体密度较高,大型工程项目中社会稳定风险因素和利益相关者关系密切,S6政府部门-R2环境安全风险与S8当地居民-R2环境安全风险是需重点关注的关系;大型工程项目中社会稳定风险中的关键利益相关者是业主、承包商、政府部门、当地居民、网络媒体;关键社会稳定风险因素是环境安全风险、决策信息公开不充分、公众参与不足、应对行为不当、社会舆情。研究成果为大型工程项目社会稳定风险研究提供新的视角,有助于提高大型工程项目管理者的风险认知水平,为管理者决策提供理论依据。

基于我国葡萄产区单氰胺残留特征评估膳食暴露风险

根据全国范围内葡萄主产区中单氰胺的残留特征,评估不同膳食消费人群的长、短期暴露风险,对于维护居民生命健康、推动生态环境可持续发展意义重大。建立了单氰胺在葡萄基质中的快速、痕量分析测定方法,样品经乙腈提取,分散固相萃取净化,超高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, UHPLC-MS/MS)分析。葡萄样品中单氰胺的平均回收率为85.0%~92.0%,相对标准偏差为(relative standard deviation, RSD)3.3%~10.5%,保留时间(retention time, RT)和定量限(limit of quantitation, LOQ)分别为1.2 min和0.001 mg·kg^(-1)。冷冻避光条件下单氰胺在葡萄样品中能够稳定储藏至少184 d,降解率为13.9%~24.1%;单氰胺在葡萄中的最终残留量为0.001~0.003 mg·kg^(-1),规范残留试验中值(supervised trials median residue, STMR)为0.002 mg·kg^(-1),最大残留量(highest residue, HR)为0.003 mg·kg^(-1),低于国内外已有最大限量标准(MRLs, 0.05 mg·kg^(-1))。单氰胺在葡萄中的急性膳食风险商为1.600%~25.346%,其中儿童暴露风险最高(ARfD%, 25.346%),依次高于一般人群(ARfD%, 3.623%)和育龄妇女(ARfD%, 1.600%);在登记作物(樱桃、猕猴桃、葡萄)中的慢性膳食风险商为0.290%~4.275%,城镇居民的暴露风险显著高于农村居民(P<0.05),2~6岁儿童群体风险最高(ADI%, 2.763%~4.275%),不同性别间风险差异不显著(P>0.05)。虽然目前单氰胺的短期与长期膳食暴露风险处于可接受范围水平,但考虑到环境投入量增加及其生物链累积作用,未来需警惕多作物、多途径联合暴露风险放大,特别是易感城镇儿童群体。

融入领域风险词典的社会安全事件网络舆情风险评估研究

[目的/意义]现有关于社会安全事件网络舆情风险的研究在考虑事件特殊特征、风险内容识别等方面存在不足。在社会深度转型期,借助领域词典和实时数据对社会安全事件网络舆情风险进行评估与识别,有助于更加精准、高效地规避相关网络舆情危机。[方法/过程]基于社会安全事件负面舆论语义特征,构建领域风险词典,并在词典基础上创建风险词指标,结合事件特征、舆情热度、负面情绪、风险词4个维度,建立系统的社会安全事件网络舆情风险评估体系。以“山科大北门伤人事件”为实证,通过实时指标来展示事件相关舆情风险变化趋势。[结果/结论]研究表明,评估体系既能从更加系统的角度刻画事件舆情风险的实际变化情况,同时也能利用领域风险词典对事件舆情的舆论风险进行更加细致地描绘,可更好地支持社会安全管控部门的风险管理工作实践。

公共政策社会影响评估的价值观变革与方法论创新

党的十八大以来,党中央高度重视科学决策、民主决策,公共政策评估研究和实践进入快速发展阶段。自第四代评估的概念提出之后,公共政策的外溢效应评估即社会影响评估在国际上呈现三种发展趋势:建构主义、民主协商与伦理约束。从价值观视角剖析,三者体现为科学主义与实证主义反思所引领的本体论与认识论的变革;从方法论视角审视,三者体现为多元主体治理与解释学辩证所代表的创新趋势。新趋势是科学化与民主化两种倾向博弈的结果,具体表现为经过管理学派与参与学派近二十年来的争论,后者逐渐取代前者成为主流。对我国而言,社会影响评估理论的引介既符合关口前移的风险治理思路,也从公众参与视角丰富了社会治理的工具箱,有助于提高我国决策的民主性和科学性。

比较确定性与概率性方法评估叶用莴苣中茚虫威的膳食暴露风险

目的探究茚虫威在叶用莴苣中的残留行为,比较我国不同年龄、性别、地区消费者的急、慢性膳食风险差异。方法结合茚虫威毒理学参数及规范残留试验数据,联合确定性、概率性模型量化我国40组消费人群的膳食风险。结果建立了叶用莴苣中茚虫威快速、痕量分析方法,定量限为0.001 mg/kg,保留时间为1.72 min;消解半衰期为0.90 d和1.70 d,规范残留试验中值(supervised trials median residue,STMR)和最大残留量(highest residue,HR)分别为1.06 mg/kg和1.42 mg/kg,低于国内外已制定最大残留限量标准(maximum residue limits,MRLs);通过确定性模型评估10种登记作物中茚虫威的慢性膳食风险(acceptable daily intake,ADI%,191.475%~496.503%)远高于可接受水平,其中叶用莴苣(ADI%,22.543%~69.927%)占比11.29%~15.34%;通过概率性模型拟合茚虫威在P99.9百分位点下的急性膳食风险(acute reference dose,%ARfD,4.637%~31.474%)与确定性模型结果(%ARfD,4.654%~31.585%)最接近。结论本研究联合叶用莴苣中茚虫威残留水平的概率分布,评估茚虫威在叶用莴苣中的急性膳食暴露风险处于可接受范围,但存在高潜在的慢性膳食风险,其中乡村地区显著高于城镇地区(P<0.05),且随着年龄的增长各阶段风险商值呈波动降低趋势。

渣土填埋场滑坡风险等级评估——以杭州某渣土场为例

“渣土围城”是我国城镇化发展以来最大的障碍之一,渣土场滑坡给周边环境带来了极大的安全隐患。针对渣土场滑坡风险评估的复杂性,建立了一种渣土场滑坡风险等级评估方法,该方法以定性和半定量的方式将渣土自身特性和滑坡特点考虑在滑坡风险评估的各个物理过程中,构建边坡安全系数与失稳概率等级的对应关系,将边坡失稳概率等级与危害性等级分为极高、高、中、低4级,并建立4×4的风险等级矩阵;提出贯穿渣土场建设全过程的滑坡风险管控对策,涉及渣土场选址、建设和治理、监测和预警、应急响应4个部分;以杭州某渣土场为例详细说明该方法在实际场地中的应用,通过对研究区域进行边坡稳定性分析、运移距离估计和危害性结果统计,评估了该渣土场在堆填结束后的滑坡风险等级。

基于社交媒体数据的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估——以郑州市“7·20”暴雨事件为例

近年来强降雨引发的城市洪涝灾害事件趋多,严重危害了人民的生命健康和财产安全,而客观、准确地开展城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估对于有效提升防灾减灾水平至关重要。但是,城市灾害点部分基础数据资料的缺失和滞后限制了城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估结果的准确性。随着移动互联技术的发展,民众在社交媒体上发布的相关灾害信息逐渐汇集成一种具有海量、时效性强和主题明确等特征的社交媒体数据资源,将其引入城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估工作对于准确刻画城市暴雨洪涝灾害的全貌无疑具有显著意义。以2021年郑州市“7·20”暴雨事件为例,首先从气象因素、基础地理信息、社会经济因素三方面选取了13个影响因子,然后基于爬虫技术获取微博数据中的内涝点信息,最后基于GBDT、XGB、RF和AdaB 4种机器学习模型对郑州市“7·20”暴雨洪涝灾害进行风险评估。结果表明:①基于上述模型得到的4组指标权重具有统计意义上的一致性,在各影响因子中,道路密度、植被覆盖指数、半小时最大降雨量和日最大降雨量在4组指标重要性排序中均位列前5,表明上述影响因子是本次暴雨洪涝灾害的主要致灾因素;②基于皮尔逊相关系数检验发现上述4种模型评估结果间的相关程度较高,所得出的极高风险区均集中在郑州市五大主城区的中心部分、中牟市东北部、新密市米村镇及城关镇、巩义市巩义站周边;③上述4种模型的AUC和ACC值均超过0.7,证实了机器学习模型在城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估中的有效性;相较于GBDT、XGB和RF模型,AdaB模型的评估结果精度最高,且得到的高风险与极高风险区的Rei值之和最大,表明其评估结果与实际情况相符。本研究通过将社交媒体数据引入城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估工作有效地提升了评估结果的准确性,可为郑州市及其他城市在类似强降水事件下的洪涝灾害风险预警和应急处置提供决策依据。

垃圾焚烧飞灰及其固化/稳定化产物的重金属污染特征及环境风险评估

垃圾焚烧飞灰的无害化处置是垃圾焚烧污染控制的关键环节。选取典型垃圾焚烧厂的飞灰及其固化/稳定化产物,对比分析飞灰固化/稳定化前后的重金属含量、形态、浸出特性及微观形貌的变化,同时采用潜在环境风险评价法和环境风险指数法来评估固化/稳定化处理前后重金属的污染风险差异。结果表明:重庆市垃圾焚烧飞灰中Zn、Pb和Cu含量较高,尤其是Pb的浸出毒性达到标准限值的80.8倍,且Pb、Cu、Zn、As和Hg显示出较强的迁移性;固化/稳定化处理显著降低了重金属的浸出毒性和迁移性,但Pb的浸出毒性仍超标;环境风险评估表明,固化/稳定化处理后飞灰的环境污染风险显著降低,但Pb和Cd的处理效果仍需改进。研究成果可为飞灰处置技术优化提供重要数据支撑。

线性水利工程社会稳定风险调查工作要点

风险调查是社会稳定风险分析的基础性工作,是识别项目风险因素、制订风险防范化解措施、判断风险等级的重要依据。本文结合线性水利工程的突出特点,从风险调查的内容和重点、调查方法的选择、调查的准备工作、调查组织实施要点等方面,对线性水利工程社会稳定风险调查工作的要点进行了探讨。