Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan and Almaty city in peak ground accelerations

As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.

Non-Euclidean Geometry and Regulated Characteristics of Limited Capacity Power Supply

The restriction of load power, two-valued regulation characteristic, and interference of several loads are observed in power supply systems with a limited capacity of voltage sources. In this paper, the definition of regime in an invariant form through different parameters, of changes of transformation ratio and voltage load is grounded for these circuits with two loads. The approach for interpretation of changes or ＂kinematics＂ of load regime is presented by using the conformal and hyperbolic plane. To simplify the task and reveal the basic moments of influence of the limited source power, the static regulation characteristics and idealized models of voltage converters are considered. Geometrical interpretation of a simplified model of multichannel power supply system allows basing the definition of operating regime parameters. Results can be useful for electric circuit theory education and for voltage coordinated control of given loads. Non-Euclidean geometry is a new mathematical apparatus in the electric circuit theory, adequately interprets ＂kinematics＂ of circuit, and provides a validation for the introduction and definition of the proposed concepts. From the methodological point, the presented approach is applied for a long time in other scientific domains, as mechanics and biology.

近70年来梁子湖水生态环境演变

文章结合文献资料以及监测数据,对梁子湖水生态环境的演变过程进行了系统梳理。分析表明,江湖阻隔及闸坝的人为调控改变了梁子湖原有的水文节律。20世纪80年代以前,梁子湖水质良好;1986—2004年期间水质年季、年内波动显著,超标时有发生;2005—2010年,水质有所改善,但自2010以来,梁子湖富营养化趋势明显,并已由贫营养演变为中营养-轻度富营养的状态。水生态系统退化趋势明显,浮游生物及底栖动物优势物种由清洁种转变为耐污种,夏季蓝藻水华风险增高,软体动物大量消失,沉水植物衰退严重,鱼类物种数减少且小型化趋势明显。水文节律的破坏、污染物的累积、渔业生产活动的影响及洪水导致的持续高水位等是驱动梁子湖水生态环境演变的主要因素。梁子湖水生态环境治理需从污染源控制、生境改善、鱼类种群结构优化等几个方面综合考虑、长远规划,最终恢复梁子湖的清水稳定状态。

The optimal semi-analytical modeling for the infinite-conductivity horizontal well performance under rectangular bounded reservoir based on a new instantaneous source function

The main objective of this study is to develop the optimal semi-analytical modeling for the infiniteconductivity horizontal well performance under rectangular bounded reservoir based on a new instantaneous source function.The available semi-analytical infinite-conductivity models(ICMs)for horizontal well under rectangular bounded reservoir in literature were developed by applying superposition of pressures in space(SPS).A new instantaneous source function(i.e.,instantaneous uniform-flux segmentary source function under bounded reservoir)is derived to be used instead of SPS to develop the optimal semi-analytical ICM.The new semi-analytical ICM is verified with ICM of Schlumberger[1]and with previous semi-analytical ICMs in terms of bottom hole pressure(BHP)profile and inflow rate distribution along the wellbore.The model is also validated with real horizontal wells in terms of inflow rate distribution along the wellbore.The results show that the developed model gives the optimal semi-analytical modeling for the infinite-conductivity horizontal well performance under rectangular bounded reservoir.Besides that,high computationalefficiency and high-resolution of wellbore discretization have been achieved(i.e.,wellbore segment number could be tens of hundreds depending on solution requirement).The results also show that at pseudosteady state(PSS)flow regime,inflow rate distribution along the wellbore by previous semi-analytical ICMs is stabilized U-shaped as performance of inflow rate distribution at late radial flow regime.Therefore,the previous semi-analytical ICMs are incorrectly modeling inflow rate distribution at PSS flow regime due to the negative influence of applying SPS.The optimal semi-analytical ICM is in a general form and real time domain,and can be applicable for 3D horizontal well and 2D vertical fracture well under infinite and rectangular bounded reservoirs,of uniform-flux and infinite-conductivity wellbore conditions at any time of well life.

Metallogenetic model of Jiaodong-type gold deposits,eastern China

The genesis of giant gold provinces is an international scientific frontier,in which the source of a huge amount of gold and the drive for mineralization are key challenges.The mineralization intensity of the Jiaodong gold province in eastern China is a rare occasion in the world,because it owns gold reserves of~5500 tons within an area of less than 10,000 km^(2).The Jiaodong gold province formed in the superimposed domain of diverse tectonic regimes in an intracontinental setting.Paleoproterozoic regional peak metamorphism and Triassic continental collision are followed by the tectonic transition and gold mineralization at ca.120 Ma with time intervals of 1.9 billion years and about 100 million years,respectively.The Jiaodong gold deposits are different from orogenic and intrusion-related gold deposits in terms of the tectonic background,types of host rocks,and oreforming mechanism.These gold deposits show close spatial-temporal and genetic relationships to mafic igneous rocks,implying the derivation of ore-forming fluids from the metasomatic mantle domains.Mafic dykes in Jiaodong have negativeε_(Hf)(t)values of-29.9 to-9.1,Os content of 0.002-0.16 ppb,heavyδ^(18)O up to 8.23‰,and high initial^(187)Os/^(188)Os ratios of 0.1352-0.8858.These indicate that the lithospheric mantle was metasomatized by ancient crust-derived components.The lithospheric mantle in the western Jiaodong shows generally more enriched isotope features than that in the eastern part,which is explained to be an important reason for its huge gold resources.The mafic dykes show lighter Mg isotope characteristics(averageδ^(26)Mg of-0.33‰,n=50)and high Ca O content(overall greater than 6.5 wt%),indicating that the lithospheric mantle would also record the metasomatism by the carbonate rocks from the subducting oceanic slab.Under the background of the rollback of the subducting paleo-Pacific slab and the destruction of the North China Craton,partial melting of the lower crust would produce granitic magmas that led to the enrichment of gold in the residual crust.The syn-mineralization asthenosphere upwelling would promote the recycling of the lower crust and the partial melting of the metasomatic mantle domains.Basic magmas,produced by the partial melting,and the mantle itself would degas to form ore fluids.The ore fluids would further leach gold in the lower crust to increase its fertility.The auriferous fluids were transported to the middle to upper crust along the detachment and strike-slip faults.Water-rock interaction and fluid immiscibility,which occurred in and above the ductile-brittle transition zone to induce gold precipitation,formed the Jiaodong gold deposits.Given the unique geological features and genetic model of the Jiaodong gold deposits,they can be defined as“Jiaodong-type”gold deposits.

南堡凹陷1号构造带帚状构造特征及其地质意义

由于控制南堡1号构造带的帚状构造的主干断裂和次级伴生断裂组合样式与常见的帚状构造断裂组合样式存在差异,在南堡凹陷多期叠加变形的应力背景下,基底先存断裂的再活动及晚期与新生断裂相互作用使帚状构造的演化过程复杂化,进而难以了解帚状构造成因及其对油气的控制规律。为此,基于三维连片地震资料,应用构造解析理论和相关技术,系统研究南堡凹陷1号构造带的构造样式并恢复其演化过程,重点探讨帚状构造的成因及其与油气成藏的内在联系,以期为渤海湾盆地帚状构造区的油气勘探提供理论依据。结果表明:①南堡凹陷1号构造带帚状构造由主干断裂F_(1)、F_(N)及次级断裂控制。F_(1)在中生代开始活动,新生代再活动并由南向北传播、生长,南部边界断裂F_(N)在Ed3沉积期开始活动,二者夹持的次级断裂在Nm沉积期开始活动。②帚状构造经历了古近纪裂陷Ⅰ幕、Ⅱ幕和新近纪后裂陷期三个演化阶段。古近纪Es沉积期主干断裂分段生长为帚状构造的形成提供了背景,古近纪Ed沉积期应力场转变为帚状构造发育提供了应力机制,新近纪Ng‑Nm沉积期F1的斜向伸展作用和FN的正交伸展作用控制了次级断裂,帚状构造就此定型。③南堡1号构造带帚状构造的发育一方面指示新生代存在一期应力体制转变,另一方面反映了控制帚状构造的主干断裂和次级断裂作为油源断裂控制油气垂向运移,同时控制同向断层圈闭和反向断层圈闭的形成——油气富集部位。

Improving photochemical indicators for attributing ozone sensitivities in source apportionment analysis

Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions(CAMx)-Decoupled Direct Method(DDM)simulations of first-order ozone(O_(3))sensitivity to nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)emissions were performed and combined with modelled P_(H_(2)O_(2))/P_(HNO_(3))ratios to obtain a range of thresholds for determining O_(3)-sensitivity regimes for different areas of China.Utilising the new threshold ranges for photochemical indicators,the method for determining O_(3)formation in the Ozone Source Apportionment Technology(OSAT)module within CAMx was improved by a dynamically varied threshold of P_(H_(2)O_(2))/P_(HNO_(3))ratio.The O_(3)concentration contributions in the newly added transition regime were apportioned to NO_(x)and VOCs emissions in proportion to the relationship between the P_(H_(2)O_(2))/P_(HNO_(3))ratio and first-order O_(3)sensitivity.The source contributions of O_(3)concentrations from different emission sectors from June to September 2019 were compared using the original and improved CAMx-OSAT.The results showed that the O_(3)concentration contributions changed significantly in the NO_(x)-limited regime,with a maximum decrease of 21.89%,while the contributions increased by up to 7.57%in the VOC-limited regime,and were within 15μg/m^(3)in the transition regime.The modified OSAT module enabled a more sophisticated attribution of O_(3)to precursor emissions and may have far-reaching implications for informing O_(3)pollution control policy.

白令海西部柱样沉积物中有机碳的地球化学特征与埋藏记录

基于2012年中国第5次北极科学考察专项调查获得的样品资料,重点探讨了百年来白令海西部柱样沉积物中有机碳(TOC)的地球化学特征及其埋藏记录,结果显示,基于两柱样210 Pbex随深度的指数衰变趋势,整体能反映出调查区相对稳定的现代沉积环境,可获得两沉积柱约70年以来的海洋沉积环境序列。陆架区BL16柱样中TOC的垂向分布与TN及粒度具有较好的一致性,反映出有机质来源较为一致,粒度可能对沉积有机碳的赋存起控制作用;而陆坡区BL10柱样粒度相对略粗,且TOC与TN、粒度无明显相关关系,这可能与该区复杂的沉积水动力环境、有机质输入和较强的细菌微生物作用有关。两柱样上层样品(近20年以来)都不同程度表现出TOC含量增加和CaCO3含量下降,这可能指示了近期北极地区变暖和海洋酸化加剧等过程对沉积有机质的影响。计算得到两柱样沉积有机碳的埋藏通量分别为3 100mmol C·m-2·a-1(BL16)和1 400mmol C·m-2·a-1(BL10),通过对有机碳埋藏保存效率的分析和区域对比,认为该区较高的有机碳埋藏通量,可能主要受控于较高的上层水体初级生产力和有机碳输出效率,较为有利的沉积有机碳保存代谢机制以及较快的沉积速率等因素的共同作用。

黄淮海平原棉花形态发育和源库关系对土壤水分的响应

研究了黄淮海棉区不同土壤水分条件对棉花形态发育和源库的调节效应。试验结果表明,随着土壤含水量的增加,棉花的株高、营养枝载果量、植株总叶面积、果枝数、营养枝数和叶果比均有显著的提高,而营养枝倾角、果枝倾角和单位叶面积载果量则显著减小。土壤水分低于70%(相对土壤含水量,试验场地土壤田间持水量为24%,下同)时,果枝叶面积所占植株总叶面积的比例减小,主茎叶面积所占比例增加;土壤水分高于70%时,果枝叶面积和主茎叶面积所占比例同时下降,营养枝叶面积所占比例上升。花铃前期,70%土壤含水量的棉花籽棉干重/茎枝叶干重、铃和蕾量最大,分别达到了1.31,9.3个/株和53.7个/株。研究认为,黄淮海平原棉区,棉花蕾期至吐絮期的适宜土壤水分下限为70%,这样既改善了棉花植株的形态发育,又促进了源库关系的协调发展,提高了棉花产量。

南海礼乐盆地新生代构造热演化特征及其影响因素

为深入认识新生代礼乐盆地的热体制特征,利用耦合岩石圈变形、热演化和沉积过程的热力学数值模型,重建了8条骨干剖面的构造热演化史,并对主要构造单元的热体制进行了分析.结果表明:张裂阶段,热流总体上随时间增加,张裂结束时,海底热流一般介于70~80mW·m^-2,基底浅埋区热流高于邻近凹陷区内热流;裂后阶段,非礁体发育区热流逐渐降低,现今海底热流一般介于65~70mW·m^-2,局部区域热流因岩体侵位而有所增高,礁体发育区受到礁体与周围海水热交换的影响,海底热流降低或为负值,而基底热流可以达到70mW·m^-2左右.进一步分析表明,礼乐盆地新生代热体制主要是在古近纪岩石圈强烈减薄基础上,叠加了晚期岩浆侵位、基底起伏、沉积过程以及海底地形等局部因素影响的结果,礁体发育区热体制还受到礁体与周围海水热交换的影响;盆地凹陷中心区生油门限深度一般介于2000~2500mbsf,门限温度介于90~110℃;礁体发育区生油门限深度明显大于邻近的北1凹陷沉积中心区.

正统、道统、治统——王船山对于政权合法性来源的思考

王船山对于政权合法性来源的思考是其政治思想的重要内容,他是在反思批判传统儒家的正统论、道统论的基础上来思考这一问题的。王船山认为"正统"至少要包含两个原则:汉族自己统治中国而"不可使异类间之";以道得天下和治天下而不能"舍君天下之道而论一姓之兴亡"。王船山对"道统"作出了祛魅的解释,认为道统的继任者不应局限于韩愈、朱熹等大儒所例举的圣人,任何自觉践履儒家伦理道德、维护和存续中华文化的人都是道统的继任者;道统具有"孤行而无待"的相对独立性,具有超越时空的"亘天垂地而不可亡"的超越性,体现了王船山对于儒者之统历久弥新的坚定信念、存续中华文化的崇高历史责任感、挺立中华文化主体性的历史使命感。王船山反传统儒家正统论和道统论的思想分别对于辛亥时期的革命家和现代新儒家产生了深远的影响。

黄河源区水文水资源情势变化及其成因初析

目前,黄河源区水文水资源情势呈现降水总量变化不大、气温不断升高、实际来水不断减少的趋势,与之相关的水生态环境情势表现在土地荒漠化、湖泊和湿地萎缩、冰川消融、冻土层埋深加大、草场退化、鼠虫害肆虐、水土流失加剧、生物多样性和数量锐减等方面。在总结分析黄河源区近50年来水文水资源情势变化特点的基础上,从气候和生态环境变化等方面对该区的水文水资源情势变化成因进行了初步分析。研究结果表明:黄河源区水文水资源情势变化的主要原因是气候变化,如气候变暖、水面蒸发能力上升等,人类不合理干扰和生态环境恶化也起到了一定的作用。

流动状态与热源简化方式对IGBT水冷板仿真结果的影响

利用层流和湍流模型对比研究了直槽道形式水冷板内部的流动状态,结果表明各槽道的平均流速不一致,不能简单地将槽道内的流动状态定性为层流或湍流。与均布热源方式相比,对IGBT元件精确建模方式得到的水冷板上IGBT元件安装面处的最高温度可高6-9℃。精确建模方式可以获得准确的温度分布和IGBT元件内部的芯片结温,计算结果有利于优化水冷板槽道结构,提高换热效率。

基于IHA的黄河源区水文情势及环境流变化

基于黄河源区唐乃亥及玛曲两个水文站1961—2008年的逐日径流数据,利用IHA软件,从河流水文指标、环境流组成以及生物多样性方面分析了黄河源区水文情势和环境流变化情况。结果表明:(1)受干扰后,唐乃亥及玛曲站分别有17、14个水文指标发生了中度改变,分别占指标总数的53.1%、43.8%;(2)两站环境流中大洪水事件逐渐消失,流量结构组成趋于单一化,并逐步向以高流量脉冲及枯水流量事件为主发展;(3)受干扰后黄河源区生物多样性呈下降趋势,两站的生物多样性指数均值均减少到10。

2012年秋季黄河口及莱州湾颗粒有机碳的地球化学特征及其影响因素

根据2012年9月在黄河口及莱州湾取得的悬浮体和水文调查资料，探讨了非调水调沙期间黄河15及莱州湾颗粒有机碳（POC）的地球化学特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）2012年秋季黄河口及莱州湾POC浓度介于42．25-1018．87gg／L之间，平均为316．35μg／L，底层POC浓度高于表层，这与沉积物再悬浮有直接关系；（2）黄河口POC呈现近岸区高，远岸区低的趋势，高值区出现在新、老两个河口区域，指示了陆源输入对河口区POC的直接控制作用；（3）在盐度为26～28（psu）之间黄河口POC有高值，表明絮凝沉降作用对POC空间分布的影响；底层POC与浊度显著相关，表明海底沉积物再悬浮对研究区POC空间分布的直接影响；悬浮物含量超过20mg／L时，生命态颗粒有机碳对总颗粒有机碳的贡献明显下降；（4）POC／PN值显示黄河15及莱州湾POC来源的复杂性，生物作用、沉积物再悬浮和黄河水沙输入对研究区的POC生物地球化学过程都有一定的影响。

引江济太水源地水质及河势可靠性分析

为了模拟计算研究区长江沿岸污染带的污染负荷量,应用有限体积法及通量向量分裂方法(FVS)建立了考虑非点源影响的平面二维水环境数学模型;同时对水源地河床演变和岸线开发利用情况进行了分析.结果表明:研究区岸线污染负荷总量超标,水源地受岸源污染较重;水源地近期萎缩较快,河床处于淤积阶段.

同水源项目对地下水动态预测的影响研究

地下水资源的利用日趋成熟化,预测某一项目对地下水动态的影响时,其他同水源项目是否会对预测结果产生影响,这关系到预测的准确性。以安徽省亳州市涡阳县为例,其用水大户和农饮工程具有相同地下水供水水源,通过对比分析,探讨农饮工程对地下水的影响程度是否因用水大户取水而产生改变,为合理评价地下水资源开采提供依据。

生态危机与能源转换——英国首先发生工业革命原因之新解

自17世纪以来,英国面临着传统能源供应链断裂导致的社会经济危机,变革旧生态体制下的经济发展方式势在必行。英国转危为机,率先在经济生活领域实现能源转换,并适时将煤炭燃料转化为蒸汽动力,从而真正发动和支撑了工业革命,引领了世界经济的发展。

黄河多源异构凌情数据仓库初步研究

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