The Evolution of Urban and Rural Construction Land Based on Spatial Econometrics:A Case Study of Bijie City

Based on the theory of spatial econometrics,we test and process the urban and rural construction land data during the base period of planning and late period of planning in Bijie City.And we conduct comparative analysis of the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of urban and rural construction land in 41 towns of Bijie City before and after the planning.According to Getis-ord G i coefficient test results,the cold spot area of urban and rural construction land in northeast of Bijie City will gradually disappear,and the key point of hot spot area will be gradually transferred from the central region to the central and eastern regions.The results show that under the guidance of the overall land use planning in Bijie City,the urban and rural construction land will show strong spatial autocorrelation;agglomeration benefits and scale merit will appear clearly,in line with the actual situation of current development of Bijie City.

Analyzing and Pondering on the Regulation of Urban Construction Land Expansion

Along with the economic development and the acceleration of urbanization,urban construction land expands rapidly in China,and has resulted in a series of socio-economic problems.This article summarized the major points of controlling the unchecked and rash expansion of construction land in the academic circle,and analyzed the problems of regulating the expansion of construction land from three aspects.First,this article analyzed the relationships between socio-economic development and urbanization from the historical viewpoints,and pointed out that the expansion of construction land is a historical phenomenon which will be surely appeared in the development of human race.Second,the authors utilized two-sector model to analyze the importance of urbanization in the socio-economic development from the academic angles.At last,the authors utilize four-quadrant model and bidrent curve model to analyze the influence that brought by the strict control of construction land expansion.Through analysis,this article drew some conclusions.First,the expansion of construction land is a phenomenon which will surely appear in the social development.It is impossible to accomplish the national modernization on the basis of dualistic structure between urban and rural areas.Second,under the function of rent gradient gap,strict control of construction land expansion will not only obtain the anticipated effects,but also cause a series of socio-economic problems,such as land-levying contradiction,the appearance of limited property right house,and being dependant on lease instead of expropriation.Third,unreasonable policies and governmental behaviors are the roots of the unchecked and rash expansion of urban construction land.Based on these conclusions,this article proposed that three transformations should be realized to regulate the unchecked and rash expansion of construction land:transfers from quantity regulation to quality regulation,from direct regulation to indirect regulation,and from single-measure regulation to multi-measures regulation.

Spatial-temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Land Development Intensity in the Western China from 2000 to 2015

The change in land development intensity is an important perspective to reflect the variation in regional social and economic development and spatial differentiation.In this paper,spatial statistical analysis,Ordinary Least Squares(OLS),and Geographically weighted regression(GWR)methods are used to systematically analyse the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of land development intensity for 131 spatial units in the western China from 2000 to 2015.The findings of the study are as follows:1)The land development intensity in the western China has been increasing rapidly.From 2000 to 2015,land development intensity increased by 3.4 times on average.2)The hotspot areas have shifted from central Inner Mongolia,northern Shaanxi and the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi to the Guanzhong Plain and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.The areas of cold spots were mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yunnan,and Xinjiang.3)Investment intensity and the natural environment have always been the main drivers of land development intensity in the western China.Investment played a powerful role in promoting land development intensity,while the natural and ecological environment distinctly constrained such development.The effect of the economic factors on land development intensity in the western China has changed,which is reflected in the driving factor of construction land development shifting from economic growth in 2000 to economic structure,especially industrial structure,in 2015.

Study of Urban and Rural Construction Land Change Based on Small Scale in Dafang

This paper is to examine the urban and rural construction land data of Dafang between basic year and final year based on country scale and spatial econometrics,and analyze its spatial pattern and change feature. According to the results,the construction lands in all the villages of Dafang County showed strong spatial autocorrelation and significant spatial cluster. After the analysis of local Moran's I,the construction lands in 381 villages of 36 counties presented strong activity. The original small-scale villages were gradually enlarging,which will not only gradually benefit local development,but also be in accordance with the strategy of " one city,one district,eight parks".

Exploring spatial-temporal change and gravity center movement of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is caused by the continuous acceleration of the urbanization process in China. Studying the expansion of construction land can not only know the changes and development of urban agglomeration in time, but also obtain the great significance of the future management. In this study, taking Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan) urban agglomeration in Hunan province as a study area, Landsat images from 1995 to 2014 and Autologistic-CLUE-S model simulation data were used. Moreover, several factors including gravity center, direction, distance and landscape index were considered in the analysis of the expansion. The results revealed that the construction area increased by 132.18%, from 372.28 km^2 in 1995 to 864.37 km^2 in 2014. And it might even reach 1327.23 km^2 in 2023. Before 2014, three cities had their own respective and discrete development directions. However, because of the integration policy implementation in 2008, the Chang-Zhu-Tan began to gather, the gravity center moved southward after 2014, and the distance between cities decreased, which was in line with the development plan of urban expansion. The research methods and results were relatively reliable, and these results could provide some reference for the future land use planning and spatial allocation in the urbanization process of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.

Spatial expansion and potential of construction land use in the Yangtze River Delta

Based on remote sensing data of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) in the years of 1991, 2001 and 2008, the paper built an index system of land use potential restraint factors in YRD, according to geological condition, terrain condition, water area, natural reserve area and basic farmland, and evaluated construction land potential based on the platform of GIS spatial analysis model. The results showed that:(1) the construction land increased rapidly since 1991 and reached 24,951.21 km2 in 2008, or 21.27% of the total area. Among all the cities in the YRD, Shanghai took the greatest percentage, followed by Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Spatially, areas where government departments are located became the growth center of construction land. Prefecture-level cities were the fastest growth region and the changing trend showed circle layered characteristics and significant increase with Shanghai and Suzhou as the core.(2) The higher the quality of construction land potentials(CLP), the smaller the number of CLP units. High sensitive area accounted for the largest percentage(40.14%) among all types of constraint regions and this was followed by medium sensitive region(31.53%) of the whole region.(3) The comprehensive CLP in the YRD was 24,989.65 km2, or 21.76% of the total YRD. The land use potential showed spatial distribution imbalance. CLP of Zhejiang was obviously larger than that of Jiangsu. CLP was insufficient in regional central city. Moreover, CLP in the YRD formed a circle layered spatial pattern that increasingly expanded centered in prefecture-level cities. Low potential area expanded from north to south. High potential area was mainly located in south YRD. Areas with zero potential in the YRD formed a northwest-southeast "Y-shaped" spatial pattern in north Hangzhou Bay.(4) CLP per capita in YRD was 0.045 ha/person and also unevenly distributed. Some 25.57% of the study units at county level nearly had no construction land and 8.24% of the units had CLP per capita below the national average level. CLP per capita in less than 25% of the county-level units was larger than the YRD average level, which were mainly located in Zhejiang. Therefore, research on the construction potential area in YRD was favorable for analysis of the development status and potential space of this region under the background of rapid urbanization and industrialization.

Regional Competition in China under the Price Distortion of Construction Land: A Study Based on a Two-regime Spatial Durbin Model

This study examines regional competition in China by considering the spatial correlation and spillover effect of construction land price distortion using a two-regime Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the patterns and trends of the competition between 285 cities in China from 2006 to 2015. The study finds:(i) price distortion of construction land is a common phenomenon but the distortion index generally shows a declining trend;(ii) regional competition through construction land price distortion shows a weakly intensified pattern, although the competition patterns in the four regions of China varied;and (Hi) the intensity of competition between regions was lower during the 12th Five-year Plan compared to the 11th Plan. The intensity of competition between cities was also lower inside than outside urban agglomerations. These results provide policy implications for remedying the price distortion of construction land and promoting regional coordinated development.

Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals:A case study of Guangzhou,China

Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.

盐碱地肥沃耕层构建水肥盐综合调控机理与技术研究进展

盐碱地是我国重要的后备耕地资源,我国历来高度重视盐碱地的改良和利用工作,但目前盐碱区淡水资源短缺严重制约了盐碱地的改良利用。如何在水资源约束下,优化调控土壤水肥盐动态是当前盐碱地可持续利用中亟待解决的关键科学问题。近年来,大量研究利用有机培肥、耕作、节水灌溉、田间覆盖、咸水利用等农艺措施,在盐碱地建立“控盐、保肥、保水”的肥沃耕作层,显著改变了水肥盐在土壤-植物-大气连续体中的运移过程,实现了盐碱地质量和产能快速提升,上述内容也日益成为盐碱地改良利用中的重要研究方向。本文系统总结了盐碱地改良和肥沃耕层构建等方面的研究进展,并针对盐碱地肥沃耕层构建下土壤水肥盐综合调控及其与植物生长的协同关系等进行了展望,以期为盐碱地可持续改良利用提供参考。

基于Landsat城市建设用地及城市绿地空间分异研究

对城市绿地和建设用地的变化进行监测研究,为城市规划和土地利用管理提供决策依据。以长沙市天心区为研究对象,选择2008年、2013年和2017年的Landsat TM数据,利用监督分类的方法提取天心区的建设用地和绿地,使用扩张速度指数ESI、扩张强度指数EII和综合扩张程度指数EDI来描述建设用地和林地的空间分异特征。结果表明:长沙市天心区建设用地所占比重较大,且从2008年至2017年持续增加,从2008年的57.73%增加到2017年的67.94%;长沙市天心区绿地/林地所占比重逐渐减少,从2008年的36.80%减少到2017年的28.90%。在2008~2017年期间,长沙市天心区建设用地处于持续扩张中,综合扩张程度指数显示:2008~2013年阶段建设用地扩张速率与强度均略大于2013~2017年阶段;辖区绿地随着建设用地的扩张而逐步缩减,且前5a缩减速度要大于后4a,说明绿地在生态城市规划中越来越被重视。

城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策与城乡收入差距

在空间均衡视角下,建立理论模型分析城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策对城乡收入差距的影响,并通过实证分析进行政策评估的结果表明:增减挂钩政策能够提高城乡居民人均收入,但是对城市居民人均收入提高幅度更多,从而加大城乡收入差距。如果配套实施农村生产率提升的增减挂钩政策,在提高城乡居民人均收入的同时,这种综合性改革能够促使农村人均收入提高幅度更大,进而缩小城乡收入差距。随后,基于2000—2016年省级面板数据,采用逐期双重差分法与合成控制法分别评估城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策与配套实施农村生产率提升的增减挂钩政策对城乡收入差距影响的实证结果发现:自2006年实施增减挂钩政策后,增减挂钩试点省份的城乡收入差距均值提升0.125,达到2.820;自2008年实施配套农村生产率提升的增减挂钩政策后,重庆市的城乡收入差距均值下降0.261,达到3.043。基于此,在城乡融合背景下,我们应建立健全城乡统一建设用地市场制度。

耕地种植用途管控制度研究——基于《粮食安全保障法》相关规定的解析

从《土地管理法》规定“耕地用途管制”到《粮食安全保障法》规定“耕地种植用途管控”,这在一定程度上说明国家层面对耕地种植用途干预的具体方式倾向于更加注重市场机制的功能发挥。耕地种植用途管控事实上意味着国家在寻求耕地内部效益与外部效益之间的平衡,并且嵌入了优化耕地种植结构的立法意图。检视我国的耕地种植用途管控制度可见,国土空间规划存在制度厚度不足、耕地保护利用激励制度存在绩效不彰、耕地种植用途管控存在操作性层面挑战、耕地种植用途管控面临多元价值冲突。完善耕地种植用途管控制度的关键是要厘清政府干预市场的边界,对国土空间规划制度进行调适,补强耕地保护利用激励制度,在此基础上,还需进一步优化农村集体经济组织的管理功能。

多规合一视角下昆明市郊野单元规划编制推进路径探析

郊野地区的发展影响城镇化进程与品质,加强郊野地区的规划引导是重点城乡工作之一。昆明市郊野地区的发展有实现“多规合一”、全域管控的现实需求,也面临乡村收缩、规划目标复杂多样的困境。随着郊野单元规划理论发展,我国多地开展了郊野单元规划实践,上海、杭州、广州、武汉从各地实际出发探索了具有地方特色的郊野单元规划路径,为昆明市的郊野单元规划编制提供了方法借鉴:从体系上理顺郊野地区各项规划关系,谋划顺畅的纵向传导机制;从实施上以土地综合整治为手段,实现空间优化提升;从方法上开展分类引导,构建分类适用的规划引导方案;从管理上以单元为平台,实施管理制度创新。

鄱阳湖生态经济区建设用地扩张对耕地景观破碎化的影响

为分析鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地景观与建设用地扩张之间的关系,利用形态学空间格局分析法研究2000-2020年耕地景观破碎化的形态学特点,同时运用外溢效应分析、景观格局指数分析、地理加权回归等模型方法,探究建设用地扩张对耕地景观破碎化的影响。结果表明:2000-2020年间耕地景观破碎化程度加强,核心区面积减少强度由1.33%提高到6.27%,并表现出由平原地区向山地丘陵区加强的地域性差异,且建设用地扩张会导致耕地景观破碎化;建设用地占用耕地的面积由268.60 km2增加到1 003.26 km2,主要发生在路网成熟的地区;建设用地扩张对耕地的外溢效应逐渐增强,在路网成熟地区更显著;建设用地扩张对耕地景观破碎化有较强的正向影响,道路建设对这种影响有强化作用,同时,耕地景观破碎化表现出随道路缓冲距离的减小而加强的阶梯性差异。研究表明,耕地景观破碎化程度受地形和建设用地扩张的影响显著,耕地景观破碎化现象主要发生在地势起伏大或建设用地密集、路网成熟的地区。

基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型构建

为实现未来不同时间尺度下的水资源空间均衡与动态调控,创建了一套完整严谨、可动态调控的“四水四定”模型体系。通过模糊信息粒化窗口的支持向量机模型预测区域未来总用水量,利用基于时间序列相似性分析的自回归支持向量机模型预测区域未来分用水量,并对两类数据进行不确定性分析;构建了复杂回归函数对各类用水指标进行情景预测,经统计检验后将其作为当前用水模式下未来用水指标;构建了“四水四定”水资源承载力模型和水资源空间均衡模型,基于未来总用水量、未来各分用水量、未来用水指标,选用水资源负载系数、用水效益和水土资源匹配系数3个指标,结合基尼系数量化水资源空间均衡度,分析当前用水模式下未来水资源均衡度;构建了最优化模型,以最小化基尼系数为目标函数调整未来用水模式,实现水资源动态调控。所创建的模型体系可以实现未来不同时间尺度下的水资源空间均衡与动态调控。

土地要素空间配置对县域经济增长的影响:基于县域内城乡建设用地增减挂钩的政策分析

党的二十届三中全会《决定》提出“完善城乡融合发展体制机制”。县域作为城乡融合发展的基本单元,其土地要素空间配置对县域经济发展具有重要作用。城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策是国家促进城乡土地要素空间流动和优化配置的举措之一,但其对社会经济发展的价值和贡献往往被忽视,且存在争议。本文使用全国2006—2022年县域内增减挂钩项目数据,采用双向固定效应模型评估了县域内实施城乡建设用地增减挂钩对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,县域内增减挂钩政策的实施显著提高了地区生产总值水平,在推动县域经济增长方面具有正向政策效应。县域内增减挂钩通过优化城乡土地资源配置和充实地方政府财政收入,推动了县域经济发展。在东部沿海地区和邻近中心城市的地区、财政自给率较高的地区以及市场化水平较高的地区,增减挂钩对县域经济增长的促进作用更大。研究结论对进一步完善和改进城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策,建设统一的土地资源要素市场提供了有益参考。

基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型的应用

将前期研究构建的基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型应用于山东省临沂市水资源空间均衡动态调控,在预测各区(县)用水量和用水指标的基础上,探究了各区(县)未来水资源空间均衡度,在不同时间尺度上对未来用水量进行了动态调控。结果表明:调控模型可靠性高且具备普适性;当前用水模式下临沂市未来水资源在空间上处于绝对均衡状态,仅水土匹配系数处于一般均衡状态;对各区(县)不同类型未来用水量进行动态调控,可在不同时间尺度上使临沂市水资源空间均衡的各项指标达到绝对均衡状态;在“四水四定”与水资源空间均衡的约束下,通过对未来长短期用水量的动态调控,临沂市预期用水量能够实现动态均衡。

基于全国国土调查数据的建设用地高质量发展规划策略——以鲁豫皖苏浙沪为例

建设用地变化是城乡空间生长过程的直接映射,对其规模和布局的合理管控是国土空间规划的核心内容。基于第二次全国土地调查和第三次全国国土调查数据,运用竞争态和脱钩模型,分析了鲁豫皖苏浙沪建设用地时空演化规律和集约利用水平,提出面向高质量发展的差异化分区管控规划策略,形成“动态分析-绩效评价-政策设计”的新框架。研究发现,鲁豫皖苏浙沪城际间建设用地规模差异大、集聚性高,变化趋势由“存量更新型、高速增长型城市为主,增量扩张型、停滞收缩型城市为辅”转变为“存量更新型、停滞收缩型城市为主,增量扩张型、高速增长型城市为辅”。建设用地与人口、经济增长的匹配关系日趋多元化,人口导向的土地利用集约度滞后于经济导向。基于变化趋势和脱钩关系的匹配度或冲突度,提出增量高质量发展区、减量创新发展区、增量提质发展区、减量提质发展区和精明收缩发展区5类规划管控分区类型,并提出相应的管理政策与建议。

环境规制对城市土地绿色低碳利用水平的空间效应

研究目的:探讨环境规制对城市土地绿色低碳利用水平的空间影响机制及其空间效应,为协同推进生态环境高水平治理与城市土地高质量利用提供参考。研究方法:投影寻踪模型,空间相关性检验模型和空间计量模型。研究结果:(1)2003—2020年,全国环境规制和城市土地绿色低碳利用水平均呈现持续上升的变化趋势,不同区域表现出不同程度的上升态势。(2)环境规制和城市土地绿色低碳利用水平均存在显著的正向全局空间自相关性,并且空间集聚呈现波动强化的趋势。(3)全国环境规制对城市土地绿色低碳利用水平的影响具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,区域间环境规制正向空间溢出效应表现出“东部>中部>西部>东北”依次递减特征。研究结论:通过“释放环境规制的空间溢出效应”“规范环境规制的执行互动策略”“构建环境规制的区域联动网络”持续提升城市土地绿色低碳利用水平。

国土空间管控困境与逻辑重构——基于人地耦合理论的演绎与分析

平衡国土空间中人类活动与自然生态等多元价值属性是下一阶段国土空间管控变革的要求。在解析国土空间管控制度基础上,指出高度依赖工具理性是当前国土空间管控陷入困境的主要原因。为应对空间管控品质化转型的需求,基于人地耦合理论从本体论、认识论、方法论3个层面重构国土空间管控逻辑。在本体论方面,阐述了人地耦合理论基本概念、内容类型、研究范式等内容;在认识论方面,基于人地耦合理论重构国土空间管控思路、方法、规则,提出未来管控逻辑应转向对国土空间多样价值理性的求同与纠偏;在方法论方面,从问题认知、思路完善、方法创新、规则补充4个层面提出人地耦合理论在国土空间管控中的具体实现路径。