Comparative Analysis of Rice Export Competitiveness in Heilongjiang Province of China Based on Index Method

Based on the analysis of rice planting and export development in Heilongjiang Province in 2013-2021,this paper comprehensively used three export competitiveness analysis methods,namely,trade competitiveness index,revealed comparative advantage(RCA)analysis and international market share analysis,to compare the four major rice exporters in the world and the three major rice export provinces and cities in China.Besides,it evaluated the rice export competitiveness of Heilongjiang Province from multiple perspectives.It analyzed the reasons for low competitiveness in terms of export product structure,export market structure,production and processing technology,and brand building.Finally,it is recommended to clarify the positioning of rice export quality and take more measures to ensure product quality;improve the level of industrialization of rice production and processing,and extend the rice industry chain;develop diversified rice export markets and improve export flexibility;adhere to the principle of"opening the door and going out",expand the international popularity of high-quality brands,so as to enhance the rice export competitiveness of Heilongjiang Province.

A Full-Scale Optimization of a Crop Spatial Planting Structure and its Associated Effects

Driven by the concept of agricultural sustainable development,crop planting structure optimization(CPSO)has become an effective measure to reduce regional crop water demand,ensure food security,and protect the environment.However,traditional optimization of crop planting structures often ignores the impact on regional food supply–demand relations and interprovincial food trading.Therefore,using a system analysis concept and taking virtual water output as the connecting point,this study proposes a theoretical CPSO framework based on a multi-aspect and full-scale evaluation index system.To this end,a water footprint(WF)simulation module denoted as soil and water assessment tool–water footprint(SWAT-WF)is constructed to simulate the amount and components of regional crop WFs.A multi-objective spatial CPSO model with the objectives of maximizing the regional economic water productivity(EWP),minimizing the blue water dependency(BWFrate),and minimizing the grey water footprint(GWFgrey)is established to achieve an optimal planting layout.Considering various benefits,a fullscale evaluation index system based on region,province,and country scales is constructed.Through an entropy weight technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)comprehensive evaluation model,the optimal plan is selected from a variety of CPSO plans.The proposed framework is then verified through a case study of the upper–middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in Gansu province,China.By combining the theory of virtual water trading with system analysis,the optimal planting structure is found.While sacrificing reasonable regional economic benefits,the optimization of the planting structure significantly improves the regional water resource benefits and ecological benefits at different scales.

Exploring the complex structural evolution of global primary product trade network

The production and trade of primary products had a growing impact on the economic security of all countries and regions,and the strategic position of these products in the global trade network was becoming increasingly prominent.Based on complex network theory,this paper explored the spatial pattern and complex structural evolution of the global primary product trade network(GPPTN)during 1985-2015 by using index methods,such as centrality,Sankey diagram,and structure entropy,focusing on the diversified spatial structure of China’s import and export markets for primary products(with exceptions of Taiwan of China,Hong Kong of China,and Macao of China due to a lack of data)and their geographical implications for China’s energy security.The research offered the following key findings.The GPPTN showed an obvious spatial heterogeneity pattern,and the area of import consumption was more concentrated;however,the overall trend was decentralized.The trade center of gravity shifted eastwards and reflected the rise of emerging markets.The overall flow of the GPPTN was from west to east and from south to north.In terms of the community detection of the GPPTN,North America,Europe,and Asia increasingly presented an unbalanced“tripartite confrontation”.China’s exports of primary products were mainly concentrated in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and other peripheral regions of Asia,and its imports undergone a major transformation,gradually expanding from the peripheral regions of Asia to Africa,the Middle East,Latin America,and other parts of the world.Energy fuels also became the largest imported primary products.Based on the changing trend of structural entropy and main market share,the analysis showed that the stable supply of China’s energy diversification was gradually realized.In particular,the cooperation dividend proposed by the Belt and Road initiative became an important turning point and a strong support for the expansion of China’s energy market diversification pattern and guarantee of energy security.

Changes in Net Barter Terms of Trade for Sino-Australian Agricultural Products after China's Accession to the WTO

Using " chain-based and constant-based" two-step method,this paper measured Paasche net barter terms of trade index for SinoAustralian agricultural products from 2001 to 2013,and further calculated contribution of each category of agricultural products to changes in overall net barter terms of trade. The results showed that since 2001,the overall net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products fluctuated between deterioration and improvement. In 2013,the net barter terms of trade index was 1. 02,and its improvement is not significant. From 2001 to 2013,the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products improved about 16. 44%,which dominated by the category 0 agricultural products whose influence degree is 6 times and 28 times the degree of category 4 and category 1. In years when the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products deteriorated,category 2 agricultural products were the root cause for the deterioration.

Competitiveness and Complementarity of Cocoon Silk Trade between China and Southeast Asia

In the context of the Belt and Road Initiative,it is of great significance to study the trade ties between China and Southeast Asia with cocoon silk as a link.Trend analysis,trade competitiveness index and trade complementarity index were comprehensively used in this paper to study the competitiveness and complementarity of the cocoon silk trade between China and Southeast Asia.The results show that the export trade volume of cocoon silk of China and Southeast Asia is decreasing while fluctuating,but it is difficult for other regions to replace their export trade status in the world market.The development trend of the replacement of the silkworm cocoon trade by the raw silk trade is presented.The cocoon silk trade of China and Southeast Asia is characterized by dislocation competition.China's raw silk export trade is competitive and has become the leader of the raw silk export camp.This paper further analyzes the changes and complementarities of the cocoon silk trade competitiveness between China and Southeast Asia.

汇率变动、OFDI与出口贸易--中国与欧亚经济联盟经贸关系的经验分析

巩固和发展同欧亚经济联盟的经贸合作关系对于促进“一带一路”倡议的深远发展具有重要意义。作者基于新经济地理学理论,结合引入汇率因素的结构化贸易引力模型,在理论层面上构建了汇率变动、OFDI与出口贸易关系的理论模型并提出研究假设,将汇率变动划分为汇率水平变动与汇率波动,引入第三方汇率波动并细化为区域邻国汇率波动、中美汇率波动和中欧汇率波动三方面,采用2003—2017年中国与欧亚经济联盟成员国贸易和投资面板数据,运用全面可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)、工具变量法(2SLS、GMM和LIML)等估计方法实证检验了汇率变动、OFDI对出口贸易的影响以及异质性汇率变动条件下OFDI的出口效应。通过研究发现:中国对欧亚经济联盟OFDI与出口贸易呈现互补关系;汇率波动对出口贸易产生显著抑制作用,而汇率水平变动影响则不显著;区域经济一体化显著降低中国对欧亚经济联盟的出口贸易;引入第三方汇率波动变量,发现第三方汇率波动效应具有异质性,区域邻国汇率波动有助于促进中国对欧亚经济联盟的出口,而中美与中欧汇率波动影响并不显著。利用国际贸易标准货物分类(SITC)将出口产品分为初级产品、劳动密集型产品和资本密集型产品,进一步探究OFDI对异质性产品出口贸易的影响,发现中国对欧亚经济联盟OFDI与不同类型的产品均具有显著互补关系,汇率水平变动对不同类型产品出口影响仍然不显著;双边汇率波动、区域经济一体化显著抑制中国与欧亚经济联盟的出口贸易,同时在考虑第三方汇率波动的情形下,双边汇率波动对初级产品的影响程度增强,对劳动和资本密集型产品的影响减弱;第三方汇率波动对不同类型产品的影响具有异质性,初级产品中第三方汇率波动均显著促进出口;劳动密集型产品中第三方汇率波动均无显著影响;资本密集型产品中仅有邻国汇率波动促进出口。设定汇率变动、第三方汇率波动和区域经济一体化与OFDI的交互项模型,实证检验了异质性汇率变动条件下中国对欧亚经济联盟OFDI的出口效应,研究发现OFDI出口效应中,汇率波动具有显著抑制效应,区域经济一体化和汇率水平变动影响不显著;第三方汇率波动效应具有异质性,区域邻国汇率波动显著抑制OFDI的出口效应,而中美和中欧汇率波动影响不显著。

Export competitiveness of agricultural products and agricultural sustainability in China

The competitiveness of a country’s agricultural products is not only related to its capacity to export agricultural products,but also to the sustainability of its agricultural sector.How to improve the international competitiveness of a country’s agricultural products while maintaining the sustainability of its agricultural sector is a practical problem of great urgency for a country with a large agricultural sector such as China.With this in mind,this study should have a considerable policy and practical significance.We used two evaluation indices,namely trade competitiveness(TC)index and revealed comparative advantage(RCA)index,to measure and analyze the international competitiveness of six China’s representative agricultural products,i.e.,live pigs,live chickens,live cattle,apples,tea,and beer,and to examine the changing trends of these products’competitiveness during 1994-2013.The results indicate that the export competitiveness of China’s agricultural products is weak and likely to deteriorate further.However,some traditional agricultural products with distinctive regional characteristics,for example,tea and live pigs,are relatively strong internationally.To this end,China should vigorously promote the production and foreign trade in traditional agricultural products with distinctive regional characteristics.At the same time,comprehensive measures should be taken to enhance the international competitiveness of disadvantaged agricultural products.

Measuring Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Using Trade Network Analysis Method

With the trade network analysis method and bilateral country-product level trade data of 2017-2020,this paper reveals the overall characteristics and intrinsic vulnerabilities of China’s global supply chains.Our research finds that first,most global supply-chain-vulnerable products are from technology-intensive sectors.For advanced economies,their supply chain vulnerabilities are primarily exposed to political and economic alliances.In comparison,developing economies are more dependent on regional communities.Second,China has a significant export advantage with over 80%of highly vulnerable intermediate inputs relying on imports of high-end electrical,mechanical and chemical products from advanced economies or their multinational companies.China also relies on developing economies for the import of some resource products.Third,during the trade frictions from 2018 to 2019 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic,there was a significant reduction in the supply chain vulnerabilities of China and the US for critical products compared with other products,which reflects a shift in the layout of critical product supply chains to ensure not just efficiency but security.China should address supply chain vulnerabilities by bolstering supply-side weaknesses,diversifying import sources,and promoting international coordination and cooperation.

Development Stage of China's Foreign Trade

Thanks to the intensive empirical studies,a reverse U-shape relationship was established between the diversification ofexport goods and the per-capita level of GDP.According to this framework,this paper analyzes the case of China,andfinds that in the next 10 years,labor-intensive goods will still be able to maintain their comparative advantages in China.This finding has important implications for China’s future trade strategy and policy.

金融服务实体经济效率测度及影响因素研究

本文利用2000—2022年全国31个省(市、自治区)的数据,运用Malmquist指数测度了我国金融服务实体经济的效率及变化情况,并进一步运用GMM估计方法分析了银行业垄断程度、直接融资比重、普惠金融发展水平、实体经济产业结构、劳动力素质和外贸出口水平对金融服务实体经济效率的影响作用及效果。结果表明,受技术进步驱动,2000—2022年间我国金融服务实体经济效率整体呈上升趋势;这一效率受银行业垄断程度、直接融资比重等上述因素影响,其中除银行业垄断程度对金融服务实体经济效率存在负向影响外,其他因素均为正向影响,且以上影响在东部、中部、西部和东北地区存在异质性。据此,本文提出持续深化区域性金融供给侧改革;扩大股权债券融资规模,提高直接融资比重;鼓励中小银行发展,促进银行业内良性竞争等建议。

珠三角区域出口贸易隐含碳的测算与分解——基于投入产出模型和结构分解的实证分析

首先基于2016—2020年珠三角数据,运用投入产出法测算出口贸易隐含碳的排放量,然后通过SDA分解模型,从规模、结构和技术三个层面分析了主要影响因子。结果表明:2016年起珠三角净输入量呈现下降的趋势;从分部门出口贸易隐含碳结构分解可知,规模效应整体呈现出快速上升—达到高峰—逐渐减少的三个阶段;部门结构效应的大部分效益值为负,说明珠三角区域的产业结构较为合理,可以有效地抑制碳排放的增长。鉴于此,认为珠三角地区应当优化进出口产品结构,加大绿色低碳技术创新力度,鼓励区域间合作减排。

加入世贸组织以来中国丝绸出口的变动特征分析

利用贸易增长的三元分析方法,基于2001—2020年中国对主要丝绸出口国的面板数据,对加入世贸组织(WTO)后中国丝绸出口的变动特征,从总体、双边和出口品类3个维度进行实证分析。结果表明,中国对主要丝绸出口市场的出口份额受集约边际的影响大于拓展边际,数量效应大于价格效应,丝绸出口存在数量优势大、出口品类完整但价格优势小的特点,中国对主要出口市场的丝绸出口仍“以量取胜”,亟待提高产品定价话语权。就出口品类而言,中国对主要出口市场丝类商品出口贸易的边际结构比较稳定,中国丝类商品在主要出口市场渗透率的影响,市场拓展效应大于出口数量效应大于出口价格效应。

数字经济发展提升了出口贸易韧性吗?——基于跨国面板数据的经验研究

世界百年之未有的大变局下,全球经济发展不确定性显著增加了国际贸易风险,提升出口贸易韧性是对冲贸易风险冲击的关键。数字经济的快速发展为重塑出口贸易韧性提供了良好机遇。利用2008—2018年47个主要国家面板数据,度量其数字经济发展和出口贸易韧性水平,并基于工具变量法识别两者的因果效应。研究发现,数字经济发展提升了国家出口贸易韧性,且该影响存在异质性。就机制而言,创新能力与生产能力是数字经济影响出口贸易韧性的两个渠道,成本效应会削弱数字经济对出口贸易韧性的正向影响,生产结构多样化则会强化数字经济对出口贸易韧性的积极作用。研究为丰富数字经济发展的对外贸易效应提供经验证据,也为探寻出口贸易韧性的提升路径给予政策参考。

数字经济发展、人力资本与中国出口结构升级

选取2011—2022年省级面板数据,以出口欠发达国家和高技术商品的贸易额比重表示出口结构升级,分析了数字经济发展对地区出口结构的影响及传导机制。实证分析发现:数字经济发展显著促进了地区出口国别结构和商品结构升级,表现为出口欠发达国家和高技术商品的比重上升。在进行若干稳健性检验后,上述结果仍然成立。机制分析表明,数字经济发展主要通过降低贸易成本和提升产品质量创新,间接促进出口结构升级。进一步分析得出,数字经济与人力资本形成互补关系,人力资本越高的地区,数字经济发展对地区出口结构升级的促进作用越强。

基于OFDI差异性投资动因的出口贸易结构效应

基于2003年~2014年中国与143个国家之间的对外直接投资（OFDI）、投资动因以及出口结构等指标数据,采用面板数据实证检验和比较顺、逆梯度下对外直接投资动因的差异,以及不同投资动因对出口贸易结构变化效应的大小。结果显示：投资动因方面,我国顺梯度OFDI表现为资源寻求型和市场导向型,逆梯度OFDI表现为技术获取型;差异性投资动因OFDI对出口贸易结构的影响效应不同,其中技术获取型OFDI对出口贸易结构优化升级的正向作用贡献最大,且这一影响效应在2008年全球金融危机之后有所强化。

中欧班列开通对中国城市出口结构升级的影响研究

利用双重差分模型,实证检验了中欧班列开通对中国城市出口结构升级的影响,并探讨背后的相关机制。研究表明,中欧班列开通能够显著促进中国城市出口结构的升级,多种稳健性检验方法下研究结论依然成立。机制检验表明,城市资源配置效率提高和城市创新水平提升是城市开通中欧班列促进出口结构升级的有效途径。进一步分析表明,中欧班列开通的影响效应存在非均衡性特征,西部城市、非资源型城市和中心节点城市更易享有政策红利。

OFDI逆向技术溢出对中国出口竞争力的影响——基于技术差距视角的实证分析

OFDI逆向技术溢出是使中国出口产品的比较优势由劳动力成本优势向技术优势转变、增加产品附加值进而增强中国出口竞争力的重要实现途径.运用中国各省市自治区2003~2017年面板数据,通过建立OFDI逆向技术溢出与出口竞争力的无门槛回归模型及技术差距门槛回归模型对OFDI逆向技术溢出与中国出口竞争力之间的作用关系进行考察.结果表明:OFDI逆向技术溢出对出口竞争力存在正向作用,技术差距对二者之间的作用关系产生影响,上述关系存在显著的地区差异.

中国与RCEP其他成员国农产品出口竞争力比较研究——基于技术结构和出口技术复杂度的视角

从技术结构和出口技术复杂度视角,定量分析2009—2020年中国与RCEP其他成员国农产品出口的国际竞争力。研究表明,中国农产品以中高技术、中低技术农产品出口为主,技术结构呈现“两头小、中间大”的特征,且出口技术复杂度处于中上位置,整体表现出较强的出口竞争力。新西兰、澳大利亚以高技术、中高技术农产品出口为主,最具国际竞争力;日本、韩国以中高技术、高技术农产品出口为主,具有一定的竞争力;泰国和越南技术结构比中国更均衡多元,是中国农产品出口重要的潜在竞争国。应进一步提升中国农产品出口规模及国际竞争力,加深与东盟国家的农业贸易合作。

数字经济助推出口贸易高质量发展研究

数字经济是近年来国内外学者关注的焦点。首先,本文通过梳理数字经济内涵发展与我国发展现状后发现,我国数字经济发展总体而言呈上升趋势,但区域差异性显著。其次,从成本节约、产业结构优化、技术创新角度分析论述数字经济对我国出口贸易发展的影响机制,认为数字经济能够助推出口贸易高质量发展。最后,文章对我国数字经济发展过程中面临的问题与挑战进行逐一论述,并针对性地提出相应的解决对策,旨在推动我国数字经济快速发展与变革,进而助推出口贸易高质量发展。

中国和哈萨克斯坦商品贸易竞合关系及优化对策

中亚五国是推进“丝绸之路经济带”倡议的第一站,哈萨克斯坦是中国在中亚五国中贸易规模最大的贸易伙伴,以往学者更关注中哈双边贸易的发展情况,而从哈萨克斯坦的角度研究中国商品在哈萨克斯坦的贸易地位的文献相对较少。基于此,文章根据联合国贸易统计数据库(UNcomtrade)中1995—2022年的中哈贸易数据,运用贸易结合度指数、出口相似度指数、显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数对中国在哈萨克斯坦贸易中的地位及面临的竞争进行系统性分析,发现中国在机械及运输设备、杂项制品等工业制成品上具有竞争优势,哈萨克斯坦在矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料等资源类产品上具有竞争力;在中国出口到哈萨克斯坦的产品中,制成品的互补性大于初级产品,在哈萨克斯坦出口到中国的产品中,初级产品互补性大于制成品,且整体看,中哈商品贸易的互补性大于竞争性。双方基于自身优势产品有更为广阔的合作空间。因此建议中国提升产品竞争力,优化对哈萨克斯坦商品出口结构,并培育面向哈萨克斯坦市场的优质品牌,拓展中哈贸易领域,进一步促进中哈贸易便利化。