Analysis and forecasts of investment scale and structure in upstream sector for oil companies based on system dynamics

Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.

REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF CAPITAL MARKET OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CHINA’S MAINLAND

Since China's reform and open door, the countries and regions of direct investment in China's mainland have been increasing. In 1995, the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China was US$ 37.81 billion that was from more than 170 countries and regions. The regional structure of capital market of FDI in China has three characteristics: (1) The most of FDI was from the near countries or regions, Hong Kong Macao, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia provided 80.3% of the amount of FDI in 1995. (2) Only several countries and regions provided most of FDI in China. (3) According to the contributory rate, the main capital market of FDI in China could be divided into four classes, including the guiding market, subsidiary market, new and development market, opportunity market. Most of FDI in China was from the developing countries and regions, which had a negative effect on the size and technical level of foreign capital enterprises. The author puts forward the countermeasures to improve the regional structure of capital market: (1) to keep the guiding market stable, (2) to open up chiefly the subsidiary market, (3) to guide actively the new and developing market, (4) to try hard to start the opportunity market.

Optimum Environmental Load Design Criterion for Marine Structures Based on Investment and Benefit Analysis

Marine structures operating in natural ocean environment are subjected to various stochastic loads. For design of the marine structures, the most important task is to determine environmental load design criterion. This paper presents a method to determine the optimum environmental load design criterion for marine structures. This method is based on the investment and benefit analysis and it can reach the design purpose of decreasing total costs during the service life of the structures and increasing economic benefits.

Audit Quality, Legal Systems, Investment Opportunity Set and Ownership Structure： Evidence From United States, France and Germany

This paper investigates the determinants of audit quality of three countries especially the United States, France and Germany belonging to three different legal systems. These determinants concern the legal system of country, investment opportunity set and ownership structure which have influence of audit quality.Empirical results show, initially, that specificities of legal system are positively associated with audit quality appreciated by size of audit firm. Then, the results reveal that investment opportunity set influences partially size of audit firm. Finally, ownership structure influences negatively the search for a high audit quality

Effects of Infrastructure Investment on Structural Change and Productivity Growth in China

The rapid growth of infrastructure investment is a salient feature of China’s economy since the reform and opening-up in 1978,contributing to not only the aggregate demand but also the structural change and productivity growth on the supply-side.This paper builds a multi-sector general equilibrium model to show how infrastructure investment influences structural change through price,investment and income effects,and influences productivity growth through the intensive and extensive marginal effects.By quantifying the model with China’s economy for the period 1981-2017,the paper finds that the infrastructure investment restrained the rise of services,but boosted productivity growth over the period.The policy implication is that China should ramp up infrastructure investment to increase productivity as it pursues high-quality development,but give priority to new infrastructure and public-interest infrastructure to promote industrial structural upgrade.

Analysis of Real estate investment structure optimization based on investment sources

As the investment structure of economic structure has a direct impact on the industrial structure, economic structure and thus become the focus of research. However, due to the impact of the traditional planned economy system, for a long time, our focus on the expansion of investment scale, optimize investment structure and neglect, leading to low efficiency of investment, private investment is difficult to effectively start, optimizing economic structure adjustment difficulties and other problems. The paper has got a conclusion that the target of optimization of real estate investment and ways based on the status of investment of real estate, and integration analysis for real estate investment sources.

Quantitative Analysis of the Investment in Chinese Urban Infrastructure

The proper amount, the suitable structure and the tentative sources of urban infrastructure investment are the main focuses of urban policy makers. Firstly the amount of urban infrastructure investment is combinatory forecasted based on historical statistic databases of China. Then the interrelationship of urban infrastructure investment with GNP and the whole society investment in fixed assets are analyzed to work out quantitative coherent relationship. Finally the paper analyses the present and the future development trends of investment structure and capital resource respectively.

Earnings information quality, debt maturity structure and investment efficiency

This paper studies the effect of earnings information quality and debt maturity structure and their interaction on investment efficiency. The results show that companies with higher earnings information have higher investment efficiency, and the quality of earnings information has increased investment efficiency by reducing the lack of investment and suppressing overinvestment. The companies with higher short-term debt ratio show higher investment efficiency. The results show that there is a certain substitution effect between the effect of earnings information quality and the maturity strueture of debt on the efficiency of investment.

A Study on Investment Structure of Fixed Assets and Regional Economic Growth

Nowadays,it has been in the period of rapidly developing China’s economy.Since the financial crisis in 2008,China has paid more and more attention to investing in fixed assets,and the growth rate of investing in fixed asset is also rising.However,when promoting regional economic growth,if we only pay attention to the total amount of fixed asset investment,there will inevitably exist some blindness and lack of sustainability.Therefore,the study between the investment structure of fixed assets and regional economic growth is quite important.China has a vast territory and many regions.The investment structure of fixed assets in different regions is also different,so the influence on economic growth is also different.This paper analyzes the investment structure of fixed assets and regional economic growth,and help realize the rapid growth of regional economy by recognizing the current situation of China's investment structure of fixed assets.

Compression behavior of 316L lattice structures produced by indirect additive manufacturing

As a new type of lightweight structure,metallic lattice structure has higher stiffness and strength to weight ratio.To freely obtain 316L lattice structures with designed cell structure and adjustable porosity,additive manufacturing combined with investment casting was conducted to fabricate the 316L lattice structures with Kelvin cell.The compression simulation of 316L lattice structures with different porosities was carried out by using the finite element method.The numerical simulation results were verified by compression experiment,and the simulated results were consistent with the compression tests.The compressive mechanical properties of 316L lattice structures are directly related to porosity and independent of strut diameters.The 316L lattice structures with Kelvin cell have a smooth stress-strain curve and obvious plastic platform,and the hump stress-strain curves are avoided.

Overreliance on Net Export and Investment Impedes China's Structural Transformation: Estimation and Analysis Based on a Multi-Sector Growth Model

Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.

National Planning,Investment & Structural Reform

Along with the further development of its economic structural reform, China’s planning, investment structure reform has made significant headway. A reporter interviewed Gui Shiyong, vice minister of the State Planning Commission on the current situation and orientation of the nation’s planning and investment structural reform.

Fabrication of silica-based ceramic cores with internal lattice structures by stereolithography

Ceramic cores are widely used in investment casting,and ideal properties of cores are essential for high-quality castings.Under the circumstances requiring thick cores,solid cores are likely to encounter deformation and cracking defects due to the accumulation of shrinkage.Therefore,with the superiority of ceramic stereolithography in producing complex ceramic parts,hollow cores with lattice structures were designed and fabricated.The dimensional accuracy and properties of the green and sintered bodies were evaluated.Results show the dimensional accuracy of sintered cores is controlled within±0.25 mm benefited from the precise green bodies.The mechanical properties are not obviously deteriorated.The bending strength reaches 11.94 MPa at room temperature and 12.87 MPa at 1,500℃ with a creep deformation of 0.345 mm.Furthermore,casting verifications prove that the hollow cores meet the requirements of investment casting.Smooth casting surfaces are obtained,at the same time,the core-removal efficiency is improved by over 3 times.

Savings,investment,and growth in Nepal:an empirical analysis

This study analyzes the relationship between savings,investment,and economic growth in Nepal over 1975–2016.The structural breaks in the variables have been accounted for using the(Zivot and Andrews’s,J Bus Econ Stat 10:251–2701992)unit root test along with(Gregory and Hansen’s,Oxf Bull Econ Stat 58:555–560,1996)cointegration approach.The ARDL approach to cointegration in the presence of structural breaks has also been utilized to analyze the long-and short-run dynamics of savings,investment,and growth in Nepal.The results show structural breaks in the real GDP per capita during 2001 when the Royal Massacre and a state of emergency have taken place in Nepal.After allowing for this structural break,evidence of a cointegration relationship amongst savings,investment,and economic growth was identified.The estimates of the ARDL approach suggest that investment has a significant and positive impact on economic growth.However,gross domestic savings have a negative impact on growth in the long run.These results clearly show weaknesses of the economy in mobilizing savings into productive sectors.

Overheated Investment in Real Estate Inhibits Innovation:Verification and Analysis in China's Case

Whether rapid real estate investment growth inhibits China's innovation is a critical question for China's economic sustainability. Based on China's provincial panel data and using land supply as an instrumental variable for real estate investment growth, we arrived at the following findings after effectively controlling endogenous factors that could lead to estimation errors. First of all, the faster real estate investment grows in a province, the lower the growth rates of innovation and R&D spending and invention patent authorizations will be in the province, an indication that real estate directly inhibits innovation in China. Such inhibition is particularly pronounced in the industrial sectors. Secondly, in the context of rampant real estate investment, the biased loan maturity structure of China's financial system in favor of the real estate industry further inhibits innovation. This paper has verified the existence of the direct effect of real estate investment growth on regional innovation and its indirect effect on regional innovation through the biased long maturity structure of the financial system. The empirical findings of this paper provide practical policy implications for China to strike a balance between real estate development and an innovation-driven development strategy.

New-Wave Emerging Multinational Companies： The Determinants of Their Outward Foreign Direct Investment

Focusing on the fast growth of BRICS＇ outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） and multinational companies during the crisis has left unheeded that some other emerging economies also grow much faster than average in the global economy and has become significant and fast-growing direct investors abroad. A sample of such （thirteen） new-wave emerging countries （NWECs） is gathered on the criterion of being ranked among the most significant foreign direct investors in the global economy. The literature review exhibits only very few articles existing on such a topic so far. Descriptive statistics enable tracing OFDI by NWECs-based multinational companies back to the 1970s, checking its geographical orientation and industrial structure, and assessing the relative importance of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Econometric estimation exhibits that direct investment moving off the NWECs is explained by so-called push factors such as the home country＇s GDP, GDP per capita, GDP rate of growth, the share of high-technology exported products in overall export, the number of technological patents registered, and how much inward foreign direct investment discussed in the light of Dunning＇s investment development hypothesis. stock has previously been hosted. These results are path model and Matthews＇ linkage-leverage learning

Impact of Two-Way FDI on the Industrial Structure in Shandong Province Under the Background of “New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion”

This paper uses the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2018 to construct a panel model to empirically study the impact of foreign direct investment(FDI)on the industrial structure.The results show that two-way investment,financial industry development,and policy variables have significant roles in promoting the advancement of the industrial structure in the province.In the future implementation of the“Going Global”strategy in Shandong Province,the cooperation between two-way investment and the financial industry should be strengthened,the level of regional financial development should be improved,and the impact of two-way investment on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure should be reinforced.

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between the Fixed Assets Investment and Urban-rural Income Gap during the Transition Period

As the gap in income between urban and rural residents bigger and bigger,based on the data from 1978 to 2007,this paper makes an empirical study of the dynamic relation between the fixed assets investment and the difference in income between urban and rural residents. The outcome from the study indicates a long-term balance exists between the investment rate of the fixed assets and the difference in income between urban and rural residents. A short-term deviation from the balance can be adjusted through long time. To a certain extent,city-oriented fixed assets investment policy is the main cause of the big gap in income between urban and rural residents. The big gap in income between urban and rural residents in turn reinforces their social status,thus further strengthening the city-oriented instead of countryside-oriented fixed assets investment policy. Based on that,this paper puts forward some suggestions on adjusting the fixed assets investment policy so as to shorten the difference in income between urban and rural residents and realize the goal of harmonious development between city and countryside.

2023年中国铜工业供需形势分析

2023年,国际形势日趋复杂,全球经济变化、地缘政治危机和逆全球化思维都对全球铜工业发展格局产生了较大影响。在此背景下,由于新能源、新技术等高速发展的新兴产业的带动,全球铜工业仍保持了平稳运行,精炼铜生产与消费都保持了较好的增长态势,中国铜工业面对复杂严峻的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务,也保持了稳中有升的运行态势。2023年,中国铜工业在生产方面保持了平稳增长,精炼铜产量增速超过两位数;企业经济效益也由降转升,全年规模以上企业营收与利润双双增长;铜冶炼回收率和综合能耗等生产技术指标不断向好;产业结构进一步优化,铜冶炼产能在区位优势的带动下布局越发分散,铜加工产能布局则高度集中在龙头区域;固定资产投资保持快速增长,但主要集中在下游领域;下游消费方面,精炼铜消费增速好于预期,从消费领域看呈现明显分化,电源和电网工程完成投资进度加快,交通运输领域乘用车产销量保持较快增长,但房地产和电子信息行业则表现疲软;贸易方面,铜原料进口和下游产品出口都保持增长态势,特别是铜原料进口方面,合计进口铜金属量远超历年。中国铜工业经过二十年的高速发展,已经成为全球第一大铜生产国与铜消费国,拥有完整的产业链条和先进的生产工艺技术,但中国铜工业在产业结构上仍存在着突出问题:原料供应以进口为主的局面短期内难以改变,原料对外依存度不断攀升;铜冶炼产能持续扩张,原料供应紧张,加工费下行风险加大;缺乏大型国际化矿业公司,企业在盈利能力和话语权上表现较弱。聚焦存在的问题与风险,中国铜工业如何适应当前国际国内形势,保障原材料供应安全和铜工业强国建设,是当前铜工业面临的最重要问题。建议继续深入开展铜工业供给侧结构性改革;多种方式夯实资源基础,提高资源保障程度;强化产业间协同、绿色、循环发展;加强新技术研发与推广,推动铜工业高质量发展。

有效资本存量、供需匹配与中国经济稳定增长

在中国高质量发展不断深化的背景下,有效投资通过优化供给结构可实现供给和需求的进一步匹配,进而克服中国现阶段有效供给不足的问题。本文以不同产业资本效率为权重构建了中国有效资本存量指标体系,相比于以往研究,从理论方面对简单加总的资本存量进行了改进。同时,通过结合不同产业的投资效率以及资本占比得出中国投资结构面临的问题。研究发现:中国投资结构面临的问题是低投资效率的产业获得高份额的投资以及高投资效率的产业没有获得足够的投资份额,进而导致中国有效供给不足和内循环不通畅。因此,需要通过增加有效投资来盘活存量资本和优化供给结构,确保实现经济的稳定增长。