HIV and AIDS has continued to be a major public health concern, and hence one of the epidemics that the world resolved to end by 2030 as highlighted in sustainable development goals (SDGs). A colossal amount of effort...HIV and AIDS has continued to be a major public health concern, and hence one of the epidemics that the world resolved to end by 2030 as highlighted in sustainable development goals (SDGs). A colossal amount of effort has been taken to reduce new HIV infections, but there are still a significant number of new infections reported. HIV prevalence is more skewed towards the key population who include female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID). The study design was retrospective and focused on key population enrolled in a comprehensive HIV and AIDS programme by the Kenya Red Cross Society from July 2019 to June 2021. Individuals who were either lost to follow up, defaulted (dropped out, transferred out, or relocated) or died were classified as attrition;while those who were active and alive by the end of the study were classified as retention. The study used density analysis to determine the spatial differences of key population attrition in the 19 targeted counties, and used Kilifi county as an example to map attrition cases in smaller administrative areas (sub-county level). The study used synthetic minority oversampling technique-nominal continuous (SMOTE-NC) to balance the datasets since the cases of attrition were much less than retention. The random survival forests model was then fitted to the balanced dataset. The model correctly identified attrition cases using the predicted ensemble mortality and their survival time using the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival function. The predictive performance of the model was strong and way better than random chance with concordance indices greater than 0.75.展开更多
In early China, ordinary people had a ＂right＂ to demand for justice and they often exerted that ＂right＂. Due to the nature of our sources, which are preoccupied with the concerns of the governing elite, the ordina...In early China, ordinary people had a ＂right＂ to demand for justice and they often exerted that ＂right＂. Due to the nature of our sources, which are preoccupied with the concerns of the governing elite, the ordinary people＇s voices are often lost, but even the scanty evidence that we have suggests that ordinary people did not always passively wait for justice to be delivered to them by the authorities. On one hand, the elites recognized that all human being had the sense of justice and its expression was a natural tendency, on the other hand, ordinary people and elites actively demanded justice at least in three ways： they cried out to redress the injustices they had encountered; they honored the impartial judges for their honesty and fairness; and they protested against injustices through collective actions.展开更多
This paper examines how radio listening clubs CRLCs） can be used to improve the lives of ordinary people in Malawi especially in rural areas. The paper draws its conclusion from data obtained through focus group disc...This paper examines how radio listening clubs CRLCs） can be used to improve the lives of ordinary people in Malawi especially in rural areas. The paper draws its conclusion from data obtained through focus group discussions （FGDs~） with members of RLCs of two community radio stations, namely Nkhotakota and Mzimba. Other data collection techniques employed are semi-structured interviews with station managers of the two radio stations and members of non-governmental organizations CNGOs~ working with the RLCs. The paper argues that RLCs can create a platform for ordinary people to share, discuss, and find ways of how they can increase food availability in their homes, alleviate their poverty, empower ordinary people, and enable them to access loans and farm inputs. In that way, RLCs can contribute to the transformation of ordinary people＇s lives in the rural areas.展开更多
In this article, we summarize some results on invariant non-homogeneous and dynamic-equilibrium (DE) continuous Markov stochastic processes. Moreover, we discuss a few examples and consider a new application of DE pro...In this article, we summarize some results on invariant non-homogeneous and dynamic-equilibrium (DE) continuous Markov stochastic processes. Moreover, we discuss a few examples and consider a new application of DE processes to elements of survival analysis. These elements concern the stochastic quadratic-hazard-rate model, for which our work 1) generalizes the reading of its It? stochastic ordinary differential equation (ISODE) for the hazard-rate-driving independent (HRDI) variables, 2) specifies key properties of the hazard-rate function, and in particular, reveals that the baseline value of the HRDI variables is the expectation of the DE solution of the ISODE, 3) suggests practical settings for obtaining multi-dimensional probability densities necessary for consistent and systematic reconstruction of missing data by Gibbs sampling and 4) further develops the corresponding line of modeling. The resulting advantages are emphasized in connection with the framework of clinical trials of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) where we propose the use of an endpoint reflecting the narrowing of airways. This endpoint is based on a fairly compact geometric model that quantifies the course of the obstruction, shows how it is associated with the hazard rate, and clarifies why it is life-threatening. The work also suggests a few directions for future research.展开更多
文摘HIV and AIDS has continued to be a major public health concern, and hence one of the epidemics that the world resolved to end by 2030 as highlighted in sustainable development goals (SDGs). A colossal amount of effort has been taken to reduce new HIV infections, but there are still a significant number of new infections reported. HIV prevalence is more skewed towards the key population who include female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID). The study design was retrospective and focused on key population enrolled in a comprehensive HIV and AIDS programme by the Kenya Red Cross Society from July 2019 to June 2021. Individuals who were either lost to follow up, defaulted (dropped out, transferred out, or relocated) or died were classified as attrition;while those who were active and alive by the end of the study were classified as retention. The study used density analysis to determine the spatial differences of key population attrition in the 19 targeted counties, and used Kilifi county as an example to map attrition cases in smaller administrative areas (sub-county level). The study used synthetic minority oversampling technique-nominal continuous (SMOTE-NC) to balance the datasets since the cases of attrition were much less than retention. The random survival forests model was then fitted to the balanced dataset. The model correctly identified attrition cases using the predicted ensemble mortality and their survival time using the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival function. The predictive performance of the model was strong and way better than random chance with concordance indices greater than 0.75.
文摘In early China, ordinary people had a ＂right＂ to demand for justice and they often exerted that ＂right＂. Due to the nature of our sources, which are preoccupied with the concerns of the governing elite, the ordinary people＇s voices are often lost, but even the scanty evidence that we have suggests that ordinary people did not always passively wait for justice to be delivered to them by the authorities. On one hand, the elites recognized that all human being had the sense of justice and its expression was a natural tendency, on the other hand, ordinary people and elites actively demanded justice at least in three ways： they cried out to redress the injustices they had encountered; they honored the impartial judges for their honesty and fairness; and they protested against injustices through collective actions.
文摘This paper examines how radio listening clubs CRLCs） can be used to improve the lives of ordinary people in Malawi especially in rural areas. The paper draws its conclusion from data obtained through focus group discussions （FGDs~） with members of RLCs of two community radio stations, namely Nkhotakota and Mzimba. Other data collection techniques employed are semi-structured interviews with station managers of the two radio stations and members of non-governmental organizations CNGOs~ working with the RLCs. The paper argues that RLCs can create a platform for ordinary people to share, discuss, and find ways of how they can increase food availability in their homes, alleviate their poverty, empower ordinary people, and enable them to access loans and farm inputs. In that way, RLCs can contribute to the transformation of ordinary people＇s lives in the rural areas.
文摘In this article, we summarize some results on invariant non-homogeneous and dynamic-equilibrium (DE) continuous Markov stochastic processes. Moreover, we discuss a few examples and consider a new application of DE processes to elements of survival analysis. These elements concern the stochastic quadratic-hazard-rate model, for which our work 1) generalizes the reading of its It? stochastic ordinary differential equation (ISODE) for the hazard-rate-driving independent (HRDI) variables, 2) specifies key properties of the hazard-rate function, and in particular, reveals that the baseline value of the HRDI variables is the expectation of the DE solution of the ISODE, 3) suggests practical settings for obtaining multi-dimensional probability densities necessary for consistent and systematic reconstruction of missing data by Gibbs sampling and 4) further develops the corresponding line of modeling. The resulting advantages are emphasized in connection with the framework of clinical trials of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) where we propose the use of an endpoint reflecting the narrowing of airways. This endpoint is based on a fairly compact geometric model that quantifies the course of the obstruction, shows how it is associated with the hazard rate, and clarifies why it is life-threatening. The work also suggests a few directions for future research.
