Optimal Threshold Determination for the Maximum Product of Spacing Methodology with Ties for Extreme Events

Extreme events are defined as values of the event below or above a certain value called threshold. A well chosen threshold helps to identify the extreme levels. Several methods have been used to determine threshold so as to analyze and model extreme events. One of the most successful methods is the maximum product of spacing (MPS). However, there is a problem encountered while modeling data through this method in that the method breaks down when there is a tie in the exceedances. This study offers a solution to model data even if it contains ties. To do so, an optimal threshold that gives more optimal parameters for extreme events, was determined. The study achieved its main objective by deriving a method that improved MPS method for determining an optimal threshold for extreme values in a data set containing ties, estimated the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters for the optimal threshold derived and compared these GPD parameters with GPD parameters determined through the standard MPS model. The study improved maximum product of spacing method and used Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Peak over threshold (POT) methods as the basis of identifying extreme values. This study will help the statisticians in different sectors of our economy to model extreme events involving ties. To statisticians, the structure of the extreme levels which exist in the tails of the ordinary distributions is very important in analyzing, predicting and forecasting the likelihood of an occurrence of the extreme event.

Innovations in Value-Addition of Agricultural By-Products in Uganda

The purpose of this review was to profile the existing innovations in the value addition of agricultural by-products and suggest innovations that could yield more value-added products from the available agricultural by-products in Uganda. These by-products were from crops, livestock, fish and forestry sub-sectors. The review indicated 7.8 million tons from the crops’ subsector, 6.69 million skins and hides, 2280 million tons of cow dung and 390,550 tons of chicken dung from the livestock subsector, 36,000 tons from the fish subsector and 440,000 m3 of sawdust and offcuts from the forestry sub-sector. Current innovations in value-addition of agricultural by-products included the making of briquettes, organic fertilizers, biogas, biochar, pellets and organic pesticides from the crop subsector. Cow dung from the livestock is used for plastering walls of houses, used as fertilizer and used for the production of biogas. Chicken droppings are as well used as fertilizer and for production of biogas. Fish frames and skins are mainly consumed in smoked form whereas trimmings are usually rolled into fish balls and then fried for people to eat while the fats are used for frying the fish balls. Sawdust has been mixed with cement to make wood-cement composite bricks that reduce the overall weight of the building. It is also being used as feed in the Indigenous Micro-Organisms (IMO) technology in the production of pigs. Proposed innovations include the use of bones to produce soft tissue, buttons, knife handles and bone meal. Blood can be used in making adhesives and fertilizers while fish oil is a major dietary source of long chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and so can be utilized to enrich different food products.

The End of Western Economic Growth Theory

Economics is a science that studies how the economy grows,so the theory of economic growth is the most important theory of economics.In the real market economy society,people achieve the goal of economic growth through two kinds of economic activities:production and transaction.Then a correct economic growth theory must be one that can explain both production and transaction economic activities.Just like Newton’s law of universal gravitation in physics,it can explain the motion law of all objects.For a long time,we have been dominated by the western economic growth theory of western mainstream economics.It is not difficult to find that it has a fatal defect,which can only explain production economic activities but not transaction economic activities.So it can’t explain the Chinese economy,and it can’t explain the western economy.The new economic growth theory proposed in this paper makes up for the defects of western economic growth theory,and it is the terminator of western economic growth theory.This is a revolution of new economics to traditional western economics.

Optimal Threshold Determination for Securities Exchange Volumes Using Improved Maximum Product of Spacing Methodology

To Statisticians, the structure of the extreme levels which exist in the tails of the ordinary distributions is very important in analyzing, predicting and forecasting the likelihood of an occurrence of extreme event. Extreme events are defined as values of the event below or above a certain value called threshold. A well chosen threshold helps to identify the extreme levels. Several methods have been used to determine threshold so as to analyze and model extreme events. One of the most successful methods is the maximum product of spacing (MPS). However, there is a problem encountered while modeling data through this method in that the method breaks down when there is a tie in the exceedances. This study offers a solution to model data even when it contains ties. In the study, a method that improved MPS method for determining an optimal threshold for extreme values in a data set containing ties was derived. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters for the optimal threshold were derived and compared to GPD parameters determined through the standard MPS model. The study improved the standard MPS methodology by introducing the concept of frequency and used Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Peak over threshold (POT) methods as the basis of identifying extreme values. The improved MPS models and the standard models were applied to Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) trading volume data to determine the GPD parameters for different sectors registered in NSE market and their performance compared. It was realized that the improved MPS model performed better than the standard models. This study will help the Statisticians in different sectors of our economy to model extreme events involving ties.

产权理论视角下传统村落生态产品价值实现的测度与优化路径——以湖南四个典型传统村落为例

传统村落作为人与自然和谐相处的典范,蕴含着丰富的生态产品,如何在乡村生态文明的建设下,把握传统村落生态产品价值实现状况,助推传统村落生态产品价值的实现尤为重要。本研究通过问卷调查、数据分析、实地调查法,基于产权理论划分传统村落生态产品类型,并构建传统村落生态产品价值实现指标体系,同时以湖南四个典型传统村落为例,开展传统村落生态产品价值实现的测度与优化路径研究。结果表明:产权理论视角下传统村落生态产品分为私人生态产品、准公共生态产品和公共生态产品三类,包含生态物质产品、生态文化服务、生态调节服务三要素;传统村落生态产品价值实现的测度差异度低,整体价值实现水平一般,得分在57.08~60.85之间,其中横岭村得分最高,芋头村得分最低。根据价值实现的测度结果与实地调研情况,针对性地提出了旅游开发型与农业主导型传统村落的优化路径,以此助推传统村落生态产品价值实现,促进传统村落的活化与可持续发展。

现代文化商品价值规律的迷思与澄清——基于马克思主义经济学原理

现代文化商品的价值规律是文化经济学者首先面临的却也是长期以来被误解的问题,诸如文化商品的价值量由个别劳动时间决定、价格不取决于价值量等流行观点,使文化商品的价值与价格笼罩着“不可知论”的迷雾,故亟须以科学的劳动价值论为基石的马克思主义经济学原理作为逻辑起点,沿着“生产方式—价值内容—价格机制”的唯物主义研究理路廓清与重释这一议题。具体而言,第一,考察文化商品的价值与劳动的关系时,应彻底地将具体劳动转化为抽象劳动、复杂劳动转化为简单劳动、个人劳动转化为社会劳动;第二,将文化蓝本视作类似于土地的知识性客体从而考察文化商品生产过程;第三,计算文化商品的价值量时应以发生交换时生产特定使用价值的社会必要劳动时间为准,且实物型商品与服务型商品的价值形成原理有所差异;第四,在发达的市场经济条件下,价值规律可拓展为决定某类文化商品乃至整个文化生产部门所得利润率与劳动量的约束条件。

基于扎根理论的生态产品价值实现路径研究

生态产品价值实现是我国将生态文明与物质文明建设相结合发展理念的重要变革,是“两山”理论的实践抓手,对高质量发展战略也具有重大意义。通过扎根理论方法,依托自然资源部发布的19个典型案例的陈述材料,归纳出我国生态产品价值实现的基本逻辑,提炼到生态产品价值实现的3条主要路径——产业化、生态化、金融化,并识别了驱动各路径下生态产品价值实现行动的前因和中介条件,生成了生态产品价值实现理论,能够为政府在生态产品价值实现方面制定政策与组织实践提供重要的理论参考。

基于扎根理论的水生态产品价值实现路径构建

围绕水生态产品价值实现的要素和待解决的核心问题,在厘清水生态产品概念内涵的基础上,采用扎根理论对自然资源部办公厅公布的12个水生态产品价值实现典型案例进行系统分析。通过三段式编码过程提炼出52个初始概念、18个基本范畴和3个主范畴,构建了解释水生态产品价值实现的运行机理和路径的理论模型。结果表明:水生态产品价值实现是以“强化水生态产品供给能力”为根本,通过资源修复、摸排和整合建立资源优势;以补链、延链和强链“打造水生态产品产业链”为手段,打通价值变现通道;“构建多元联动体系”进行保障,为价值转化进行制度赋能和形成合力释能的系统工程。

“两山论”对发展理论创新的实践性分析——以生态系统服务价值实现的条件组态为视角

习近平的“两山论”作为对生态发展理念的全新诠释,其核心在于强调“和谐共生”的深刻内涵,同时更深刻地揭示了可持续发展的生态路径。研究通过理论模型和案例举证对这一创新的理论价值与实践价值进行了深入分析。研究发现,生态资源管控与迂回生产的结合,以及实际交易效率的提升,是实现生态价值的两组关键条件。研究不仅揭示了各因素间的相互作用及其对生态价值实现的影响机制,还通过对比不同地区的生态价值实现案例,提炼出成功实现生态价值的共性因素和条件组合。实践证明,“两山论”不仅为发展理论注入了新的活力,而且为当今世界的发展实践提供了宝贵的指导。

企业安全生产失信的影响因素及组态研究

为深入探究企业安全生产失信的影响因素和组态作用路径,科学防控企业安全生产失信行为,采用扎根理论对企业安全生产失信案例编码并提炼影响因素,将影响因素作为模糊集定性比较分析的条件变量,采用六值法结合事故等级对结果变量进行信用分级,探究企业安全生产失信产生的组态路径。结果表明,企业安全生产失信产生的组态路径主要包括应急型、诚信意识-执行型、制度型、安全目标-个体型等,失信行为发生的核心条件为安全诚信意识、安全诚信制度、应急管理水平,并在此基础上就企业安全生产失信防控提出建议。

基于情感化理论的婚庆产品包装设计研究

近年来,婚庆产品包装设计作为一种重要的文化教育传播形式,备受人们关注。本研究基于情感化理论,以提升人们的消费体验和情感需求为目标,对婚庆包装设计进行了深入探讨。本文采用文献综述和案例分析的研究方法,系统地总结了情感因素在婚庆包装设计中的理论基础和应用方式。研究结果表明,情感因素不仅能增强婚庆产品与顾客的情感连接,更能够提升品牌价值和市场竞争力;揭示了情感化理论在婚庆产品包装设计中的重要价值和研究意义,以期为相关设计从业者提供有益的借鉴和启示。

基于模糊MACBETH和生态位理论的PSS方案评价方法

针对多属性决策方法与生态位理论结合的PSS评价方法权重确定过程中一致性检验繁琐、权重计算过程复杂和未考虑评价语义的模糊性的问题,模糊MACBETH用于确定客户价值的权重和客户体验阶段提供客户价值的重要性系数;该方法无须复杂的计算过程,利用三角模糊数处理语义的模糊性且依托软件系统自动检验一致性,提高了评价效率和准确度。针对生态位优势仅适用于完全竞争状态的优势计算,将生态位重叠与生态位优势结合,提出的竞争优势公式可以体现方案间竞争程度和生态位优势表示方案间的竞争优势的优点,反映方案间真实的竞争状态。最后以某新能源汽车制造企业PSS方案评价问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。

基于改进区间直觉模糊多属性群决策的在线知识付费产品评价方法研究

针对在线知识付费产品评价与优选问题,从知识付费产品和知识生产者两个维度设计评价属性,提出一种改进的区间直觉模糊多属性群决策方法。首先,考虑决策者的专业性,确定每一属性的决策者权重;其次,构建一种基于信息和知识交流的共识达成模型,使关键性决策信息和知识不会被修改;然后,为了更准确地刻画决策者的心理偏好,提出一种改进前景理论的价值函数;最后,利用一个案例研究,验证了所提方法的有效性,并通过与现有决策方法的对比分析,证实了所提方法的创新性。本研究不仅能从产品质量评价视角为研究在线知识付费产品提供新的研究思路,还能帮助在线知识付费平台评价在线知识付费产品,进而督促知识生产者提高产品质量。

马克思劳动价值论视域下内卷化现象的逻辑透析及突破路径--以限定产品为例

限定产品在“消费主义”包装下,使消费者陷入“符号消费”的漩涡,进而导致企业生产内卷化,引发市场的恶性竞争。基于马克思主义政治经济学来分析这一内卷化现象,其缘起于商品经济的供需不平衡,兴起于资本对剩余价值的狂热追逐,在消费主义符号化的推波助澜下,扩张于资本逻辑中生产和消费的辩证关系之中,进而发现内卷化本质是商品拜物教建制下的异化症候。解决限定产品市场乱象,应以马克思“人的解放学说”为理论要旨,通过重塑人民消费观念、积极推动品牌发展、深度融合中国文化、构建多元治理体系,从整体上支撑起社会消费的提质升级,形成高质量发展的消费经济动力。

叶片数对离心泵内部能量流动损失的影响

针对不合适的离心泵叶片数会降低其输送流体效率,导致离心泵性能难以提升的问题,研究了叶片数对于离心泵内流动能量损失的影响。首先,采用UG建立了叶片数为4、5、6的离心泵流体域模型,并对各叶片数的离心泵流体域进行了六面体结构化网格划分;然后,采用ANSYS Fluent进行了数值模拟,研究了各叶片数的离心泵在0.6~1.4倍额定流量下的扬程、效率以及轴功率;采用熵产理论研究了不同叶片数在各流量下直接熵产(EGDD)、湍流熵产(EGTD)和壁面熵产(EGWS)的值与占比;最后,研究了进口域、出口域、叶轮域以及蜗壳域的熵产值(EGV)情况,还研究了熵产率(EGR)的空间位置分布。研究结果表明:叶片数越多,泵的扬程、效率与轴功率越大;额定流量下熵产值最低;叶轮域熵产值占最大比例,蜗壳域次之;黏性尾流区域熵产率较大,叶片压力面尾缘处的壁面熵产率最高。

福克斯数字劳动争议性问题辨析——基于马克思劳动价值论的视域

随着数字技术的进一步发展,数字劳动的研究向纵深推进。福克斯立足于马克思的劳动价值论建立起数字劳动价值论。以马克思主义经典理论和数字劳动发展现状为理论参照和生发基点,福克斯理解下的传统有薪劳动属于生产劳动,无薪社交媒体劳动的生产性质需要根据其是否作用于资本增殖而分情况讨论,如果其劳动产品仅具有社交意义而不存在经济意义则不能作为生产劳动理解。在数字劳动是否存在剥削方面,由于“产消合一”这一新的剥削方式出现,数字劳动总体上仍受剥削。在价值创造和实现因素方面,数字劳动仍遵循劳动价值论中以时间作为考量因素的观点。针对福克斯数字劳动争议问题的研究,有助于深化数字劳动研究的多样性,增强马克思主义劳动价值论的诠释力;有助于破解数字劳动发展难题,引领数字技术造福世界人民。

生态产品价值实现机制研究——基于承德案例的扎根探索

新时代生态文明建设背景下,探究生态产品价值实现机制,厘清“两山”转化与反哺的良性循环机理具有重要理论意义和实践价值。以承德市的生态产品价值实现过程为案例分析对象,对该地区生态产品产业链的参与主体进行实地调研,同时运用扎根理论对其构建生态产品价值实现机制模型。通过研究发现:首先,编码共生成了横向补偿、纵向补偿等19个初始概念,生态补偿、生态载体溢价等8个初始范畴,公共性、准公共性、经营性生态产品价值实现等3个主范畴。其次,主范畴间存在明显的递进发展关系,且最终均指向生态产品价值实现这一核心范畴。其中,公共性生态产品价值实现是生态产品价值实现的前提和基础,准公共性生态产品价值实现是生态产品价值实现的桥梁和纽带,经营性生态产品价值实现是生态产品价值实现的最终目的与达成,并且每类生态产品价值实现内部均存在“两山”的转化与反哺。最后,提出从政策引导与科技创新两方面促进生态产品价值实现的建议。

两种生产理论在妇女解放中的当代价值

恩格斯在《家庭、私有制和国家的起源》中对两种生产理论进行了系统阐述,为马克思主义妇女解放理论打下了基石。两种生产理论在西方女权主义的发展过程中发挥了重要作用,许多流派对两种生产力进行了批判继承,拓宽了妇女解放工作的视野,丰富了妇女解放理论;两种生产理论也对我国妇女解放工作起到了指导和推动作用。

Changing the Paradigm

A simple but useful method of analysis of hyperbolic processes is presented and its application is illustrated by using the growth of human population in Africa, the economic growth in Western Europe and the examination of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory. It is shown how this method can revolutionize the interpretation of the historical economic growth and the growth of human population and how it can help to understand the current growth. Examples used to illustrate the application of this method show that, contrary to the accepted interpretations, the Industrial Revolution and the accompanying unprecedented technological development had no impact on the economic growth even in Western Europe and that Galor’s Unified Growth Theory fails the scientific test.

湿地资源生态价值实现路径及其规划响应

党的十八大以来,习近平总书记多次强调“绿水青山就是金山银山”的发展理念。探索“绿水青山”向“金山银山”转化的路径研究成为生态文明建设中的重要议题。文章基于“两山”理论,从自然资源资产化的视角探讨湿地资源生态价值实现的路径。研究发现:湿地资源在生态、生产、生活方面的价值实现有市场型、政府型、政府与市场相结合型3种基本路径;公益性湿地资源以保护为主,在资源转化成资产的过程中,主要通过生态补偿、生态修复和权益交易等方式实现湿地资源的保值增值和生产力发展;经营性湿地资源通过市场培育建立生态产品交易平台,并以“生态+”理念发展生态产品第四产业,实现生态价值向经济社会价值的转化;通过探索政府主导的POD模式和政府与市场相结合的EOD模式,可实现“绿水青山”高质量发展。