Evolution characteristics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its thermodynamic and dynamic effects on surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere

Based on modern observations,historical proxy data,and climate model simulations,this paper provides a comprehensive overview of the past,present and future evolution characteristics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC),as well as its impact on the surface air temperature(SAT)at regional and hemispherical scales.The reconstruction results based on the proxy data indicate that the AMOC has weakened since the late 19th century and experienced overall weakening throughout the 20th century with low confidence.Direct observations show that the AMOC weakened during 2004–2016,but it is not possible to distinguish between its decadal variability and long-term trend.Climate models predict that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase,AMOC will weaken in the future,but there will not be a sudden collapse before 2100.For the thermodynamic effects of AMOC,the increased surface heat flux release and meridional heat transport(MHT)over the North Atlantic associated with the strong AMOC cause an increase in the hemispherical SAT.At the millennial scale,climate cooling(warming)periods correspond to a weakened(strengthened)AMOC.The enhanced MHT of a strong AMOC can affect Arctic warming and thus influence regional SAT anomalies and SAT extremes through mutual feedback between Arctic sea ice and AMOC.In terms of dynamic effects,a strong AMOC modulates the Rossby wave trains originating from the North Atlantic and spreading across mid-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and causes an increase in the variabilities in the circulation anomalies over the Ural and Siberian regions.Ultimately,a strong AMOC significantly affects the frequencies of extreme cold and warm events in the mid-to-high latitude regions over Eurasia.In addition,AMOC can also influence regional and global SAT anomalies through its dynamic adjustment of planetary-scale circulation.Decadal variation in AMOC is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).During positive phases of AMO and AMOC,enhanced surface heat fluxes over the North Atlantic lead to abnormal warming in the Northern Hemisphere,while during negative phases,the reverse case occurs.Under high emission scenarios in the future,the possibility of AMOC collapse increases due to freshwater forcing.However,most advanced climate models underestimate the strength of the AMOC and its impact on the AMO and relevant climate change,which presents a major challenge for future understanding and prediction of the AMOC and its climate effects.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

Theoretical Study on the Mechanism of CF_2 Reaction with CH_2O

The insertion reaction mechanism of CF2 with CH2O was investigated at the B3LYP/6-311G（d）//MP2/6-311G（d） level. The geometric conformations at each stationary point in reaction potential surface were fully optimized and the transition states were verified by intrinsic reaction coordinate （IRC） and frequency analysis. The energies of all reactants were calculated with CCSD（T）/6-311G（d）//G2MP2 methods. Results indicated that the P1 reaction route with difuoroaldehyde as product is the dominant reaction pathway, which exhibits nucleophilic character. According to NBO analysis, the starting point of insertion reaction is the interaction between carbene LP（C3） and formaldehyde π（Cl-O2）. Besides, the thermodynamic and dynamic properties of dominated reaction （1） at different temperature were studied with statistic thermodynamic method and Eyring transition state theory adjusted by Wigner means, from which the proper temperature （500- 1200 K） of reaction （1） could be estimated. Finally, the thermo- dynamic and dynamic properties of insertion reaction mechanisms （CF2, CX2 （X = Cl, Br） with CH2O） were compared and discussed.