Through the analysis on the meanings and features as well as the ad- vantages of the third-party logistics for agricultural products, the quantization index system for the selection of third-party logistics providers ...Through the analysis on the meanings and features as well as the ad- vantages of the third-party logistics for agricultural products, the quantization index system for the selection of third-party logistics providers for agricultural products was constructed based on the system comprehensive evaluation theory. Analytic hierar- chy process （AHP） was used to determine the weight of the index system of each level, and AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to determine the selection steps for the third-party logistics providers for agricultural products. The method was proved to be scientific and reasonable through calculation examples.展开更多
The status quo of Chinese agro-products logistics is analyzed from the following five aspects:the circulation mode,exchange mode,storage and transportation situation,food security.The following problems in Chinese agr...The status quo of Chinese agro-products logistics is analyzed from the following five aspects:the circulation mode,exchange mode,storage and transportation situation,food security.The following problems in Chinese agro-products logistics are pointed out,including excessive circulation sections,bad time efficiency,single payment,slow circulation,backward information processing,obvious bullwhip effect,low logistics efficiency,low logistics technology,inadequate professional equipments,low standardization degree,organized operation mode and low degree of scale.The third-party logistics mode of agro-products is analyzed and the advantages of the mode are analyzed as well.Firstly,establishing information network through integrating circulation section to accelerate the circulation of agro-products;secondly,making the operation norms by providing professional equipments to secure the quality of agricultural products;thirdly,improving the core competitiveness of the whole logistics chain by intensifying specialized work division in each section of the supply chain;fourthly,through forming scale economy to reduce logistics costs and increase the diversity of products;fifthly,through signing contracts to clarify duties and responsibilities and materialize the profit integration of the supply chain.The measures for establishing the third-party logistics of agro-products are put forward,including establish the awareness and concept of socialized logistics services;intensify the support on the third-party logistics enterprises of agro-products;lay stress on the cultivation of logistics talents of agro-products;and vigorously apply the modern marketing means.展开更多
目的:比较决策树和Logistic回归模型对体外受精-胚胎移植(in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer,IVF-ET)患者妊娠结局的预测价值。方法:纳入2021年1月至2022年10月在长治医学院附属和平医院接受IVF-ET的患者350例为研究对象,根...目的:比较决策树和Logistic回归模型对体外受精-胚胎移植(in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer,IVF-ET)患者妊娠结局的预测价值。方法:纳入2021年1月至2022年10月在长治医学院附属和平医院接受IVF-ET的患者350例为研究对象,根据妊娠结局分为妊娠成功组(215例)和妊娠失败组(135例)。收集患者临床资料,建立IVF-ET患者妊娠结局Logistic回归和决策树预测模型,并在是否基于Logistic回归结果条件下建立决策树分析模型(决策树1和决策树2),采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型预测效果进行评价。结果:350例患者中,妊娠成功患者占61.43%,妊娠失败者占38.57%。妊娠失败组年龄≥35岁、不孕年限≥5年、周期次数≥1次、有心理精神障碍的患者比例及HCG日血清孕酮水平均高于妊娠成功组,获卵数≥10枚、受精率≥75%的患者比例及HCG日子宫内膜厚度、优质胚胎数小于妊娠成功组(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数及心理精神障碍均是IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素(P<0.05)。决策树模型显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数为IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素。Logistic回归模型曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.832,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为87.3%、71.4%、83.5%;决策树1的AUC为0.859,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为85.1%、76.8%、85.6%;决策树2的AUC为0.820,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为83.7%、73.2%、82.4%。决策树1的AUC大于决策树2(P<0.05),但与Logistic回归模型的AUC比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:Logistic回归模型和决策树模型对于IVF-ET患者妊娠结局均有一定的预测价值。展开更多
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Province(2011GXNSFB018061)the High-grade Scientific Research(Cultivation)Program of Qinzhou University(2014PY-SJ03,2014PY-SJ01)~~
文摘Through the analysis on the meanings and features as well as the ad- vantages of the third-party logistics for agricultural products, the quantization index system for the selection of third-party logistics providers for agricultural products was constructed based on the system comprehensive evaluation theory. Analytic hierar- chy process （AHP） was used to determine the weight of the index system of each level, and AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to determine the selection steps for the third-party logistics providers for agricultural products. The method was proved to be scientific and reasonable through calculation examples.
文摘The status quo of Chinese agro-products logistics is analyzed from the following five aspects:the circulation mode,exchange mode,storage and transportation situation,food security.The following problems in Chinese agro-products logistics are pointed out,including excessive circulation sections,bad time efficiency,single payment,slow circulation,backward information processing,obvious bullwhip effect,low logistics efficiency,low logistics technology,inadequate professional equipments,low standardization degree,organized operation mode and low degree of scale.The third-party logistics mode of agro-products is analyzed and the advantages of the mode are analyzed as well.Firstly,establishing information network through integrating circulation section to accelerate the circulation of agro-products;secondly,making the operation norms by providing professional equipments to secure the quality of agricultural products;thirdly,improving the core competitiveness of the whole logistics chain by intensifying specialized work division in each section of the supply chain;fourthly,through forming scale economy to reduce logistics costs and increase the diversity of products;fifthly,through signing contracts to clarify duties and responsibilities and materialize the profit integration of the supply chain.The measures for establishing the third-party logistics of agro-products are put forward,including establish the awareness and concept of socialized logistics services;intensify the support on the third-party logistics enterprises of agro-products;lay stress on the cultivation of logistics talents of agro-products;and vigorously apply the modern marketing means.
文摘目的:比较决策树和Logistic回归模型对体外受精-胚胎移植(in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer,IVF-ET)患者妊娠结局的预测价值。方法:纳入2021年1月至2022年10月在长治医学院附属和平医院接受IVF-ET的患者350例为研究对象,根据妊娠结局分为妊娠成功组(215例)和妊娠失败组(135例)。收集患者临床资料,建立IVF-ET患者妊娠结局Logistic回归和决策树预测模型,并在是否基于Logistic回归结果条件下建立决策树分析模型(决策树1和决策树2),采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型预测效果进行评价。结果:350例患者中,妊娠成功患者占61.43%,妊娠失败者占38.57%。妊娠失败组年龄≥35岁、不孕年限≥5年、周期次数≥1次、有心理精神障碍的患者比例及HCG日血清孕酮水平均高于妊娠成功组,获卵数≥10枚、受精率≥75%的患者比例及HCG日子宫内膜厚度、优质胚胎数小于妊娠成功组(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数及心理精神障碍均是IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素(P<0.05)。决策树模型显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数为IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素。Logistic回归模型曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.832,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为87.3%、71.4%、83.5%;决策树1的AUC为0.859,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为85.1%、76.8%、85.6%;决策树2的AUC为0.820,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为83.7%、73.2%、82.4%。决策树1的AUC大于决策树2(P<0.05),但与Logistic回归模型的AUC比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:Logistic回归模型和决策树模型对于IVF-ET患者妊娠结局均有一定的预测价值。
