Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Climate Characteristics in Three Gorges Reservoir Area after Water Storage and Its Impact on the Production Potential

Based on the meteorological data from 33 stations of Three Gorges Reservoir from 1960 to 2008,climate yield of rice,corn and winter wheat and the changes of climatic potential productivity after water storage in Three Gorges Reservoir were calculated by the dynamic statistic model of crop growth.The results showed that the temperature in Three Gorges Reservoir was fluctuant decreased before late 1980s,and warmed rapidly after the late 1980s.The precipitation had little change before the late 1990s and had a slight decrease after the late 1990s.Sunshine hours were more in 1960s and 1970s,and then it changed little after 1980s.After water storage,the temperature increased in Three Gorges Reservoir as a whole.The precipitation decreased in the south of Three Gorges Reservoir,while it increased in the northwest of Three Gorges Reservoir.The sunshine hours were reduced except that in the vicinity of Dianjiang.After water storage,climatic potential productivity of rice decreased in the northwest and the northeast,while it increased in the south of Three Gorges Reservoir.The climatic potential productivity of corn decreased in the northeast and the southwest,but increased in the rest of Three Gorges Reservoir.The climatic potential productivity of winter wheat increased almost in total.

Reductions in non-point source pollution through different management practices for an agricultural watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Non-point source water pollution generated by agricultural production is considered a major environmental issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area （TGRA） of China. The Annualised Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution （AnnAGNPS） model was selected to assess the impact of the application of various management treats, including seven crops, five fertilizer levels and three-group management practice scenarios, on water quality from Heigou River Watershed in TGRA. The scenario subsets include conservation tillage practice （CTP）, conservation reserve program （CRP） and conversion of cropland into forestland program （CCFP）. Results indicated that tea can not be replaced by other crops because comparatively tea resulted in a higher sediment yield. CTP with no-tillage was more effective to reduce sediment yield, but could increased nutrient loss. CRP reduced sediment yield significantly, but slightly benefited on nutrient loss. CCFP reduced not only sediment yield but also the nutrient loss significantly. The conversion of cropland with a slope greater than 10° into forestland was found to be the best scenario as the sediment yield export is less than 5 tons/ha and nutrient loss is within the permissible limit.

Effect of nitrogen and phosphorus on the water quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during and after its construction

A survey concerning the concentration of the nutrients in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was carried out. This paper presents the parameters(NO 3 - N, NO 2 - N, Kjeldahl N, non ionic ammonia, P PO 4 and TP) determined at 16 sampling sites from 1997 to 1999 The dominant soluble nitrogen form was NO 3 - N followed by Kjeldahl N, NO 2 - N and non ionic ammonia. Mean values of NO 3 - N, NO 2 - N, Kjeldahl N and non ionic ammonia ranged from 0 50 to 2 37 mg/L, 0 022 to 0 084 mg/L, 0 33 to 0 99 mg/L and 0 007 to 0 092 mg/L respectively. Mean values of P PO 4 at most sampling sites were higher than 0 1 mg/L for subject to eutrophication. The major factors influencing the concentrations of N and P might be agricultural runoff, municipal and industrial effluents. In addition, 6 kinds of soil were sampled at the area where would inundated after the dam completed. Two approaches were adopted to simulate the N and P release from the inundated soils. The results showed that the soils would release nitrogen and phosphorus to the overlying water when the soils were inundated. The characteristics of soil affected the equilibrium concentrations of N and P between the soil and the overlying water.

Changes in cultivated land patterns and driving forces in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, from 1992 to 2015

Changes of cultivated land patterns caused by major water conservation projects are rarely reported. We selected the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China to study the change in area and landscape pattern of the cultivated land in the head,central, and tail areas of the reservoir that took place between 1992 and 2015;we then studied the spatial distribution of the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir;finally, we studied the driving forces behind the changes in the cultivated land. The results derived are as follows.(1) During the construction of the Three Gorges Project(TGP, 1992–2015), the area of cultivated land around the reservoir decreased by30.23 million ha. This reduction occurred in phases:the most severe change in cultivated land occurred during the later stage of the project(2002–2010);only 0.62 million ha of cultivated land did not change between 1992 and 2015.(2) Spatial pattern analysis showed that the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir changed from a northern distribution to a southern distribution;thus, the area of cultivated land in the north decreased over the time period. The area of cultivated land in the head and tail areas decreased by varying degrees, while it increased in the central area over the 23 years, indicating that the change in cultivated land showed regional differences.(3) The TGP, the policy of reverting farmland to forest,and urbanization were the main driving factors for the change of cultivated land, but there were differences in their impacts at different stages.(4) According to the patch dynamics of the land cover change, the degree of change gradually intensified during the early and later stages of the project and then stabilized during the operational period. Our research provides scientific support for the protection of cultivated land resources and food security in the reservoir area and for the coordination of social and economic development, which is of great significance to sustainable development in the reservoir area.

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differences of Land Use Changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 1975-2005

Regional land use changes are an important part of global changes.The research on land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China attracts a lot of attention owing to the Three Gorges Dam building.The Three Gorges Reservoir Area becomes one of the important research areas.This study analyzed the transforming processes and traits of each land use type and the regional differences of land use changes during the past 30 years,summarized the distribution of different land use types in different buffer zones and regresses the equation areas and different buffer distances based on buffer analyses and regression analyses,and then analyzed the transforming rules in different buffer distances,got the optimal influence distances.The research results indicate that,(1) cultivated land lies at the northwest of the reservoir and was decreasing,however,the construction land was increasing,especially the urban construction land,a large number of land was flooded because of the reservoir water level rise;(2) urban area was sprawling quickly in developed and neighboring areas,and a great deal of cultivated land and a considerable amount of grassland were occupied;in the earlier time,rural settlements occupied lots of cultivated land and a sum of forestry land in the later time;(3) the optimum influenced distances for cultivated land and forestry land were 10-35 km,and for urban and rural settlements were in 5-20 km.Overall,this research can reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes during the 30 years,and it is helpful for urban planning and land use planning in the reservoir area.

Assessment of the Ecological Security in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area by Using the Ecological Footprint Method

The ecological footprint concept and its calculation models are useful for the measurement of the sustainable level of social and economic development.The ecological security situation of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA) was evaluated using this concept in this study.The construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir has led to the change in the ecology and immigration status of TGRA.The ecological footprint method is an important means to study the regional ecological security.Our results suggested that,by excluding the areas for biodiversity conservation(12% of the total land),the ecological footprint per capita was 0.57895 ha,which exceeded the ecological carrying capacity in TGRA.The total ecological deficit was found to be 11,522,193.34 ha,accounting for 95.02% of the ecological carrying capacity.These findings suggested that the ecological security of TGRA was not good.In order to compensate for the ecological deficit,it was essential to introduce natural resources from other regions.

Spatiotemporal features of soil and water loss in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing

Soil and water loss has been the most serious eco-environmental problem in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing.In this paper the authors studied the spatiotemporal features of soil and water loss from 1999 to 2004 based on RS and GIS techniques.The results showed that:(1) The soil and water loss area decreased from 1999 to 2004.(2) Soil and water loss mainly exists in purple soil,yellow soil,limestone soil,paddy soil and yellow brown soil distributed areas.(3) The dry slope land and sparse woodland that are intensively influenced by human activities experienced most serious soil and water loss.(4) Soil and water loss in the study area indicated an obvious vertical differentiation characteristic.(5) There is a significant correlation between soil and water loss and slope.(6) There is no obvious correlation between soil and water loss and aspect.(7) Soil and water loss mainly exists in the values of R between 300 and 340 distribution area.The very-high soil and water loss has obvious correlation with R.

Spatial patterns of farmland abandonment and its impact factors in the central Three Gorges Reservoir Area

The severe farmland abandonment phenomena in China have tremendously decreased the farmland usage efficiency and caused a series of profound ecological and social outcomes. The complexity of farmland abandonment necessitates a systematic research on its patterns and impact factors to underpin the dynamics of problem as well as potential solutions. This paper took Wanzhou district in the central part of Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example to study the spatial distribution patterns of abandoned farmland at three scales, i.e., town, village, and plot, and analyzed the influence from labor transfer and farmland circulation. We conducted a survey on the distribution patterns of abandoned farmland via questionnaires at town and village scales, together with the modeling and interpretation of high-resolution aerial images taken by unmanned aerial vehicles at plot scale. Our research discloses a strong relationship between the distribution of abandoned farmland and the distance from population center at different scales. At eithertown or village scale, the abandonment proportion was recognized the highest in mid-distance areas and lowest in close-distance areas, and the per capita area of abandoned farmland increased with the distance to downtown or township. At plot scale, abandonment proportion presented exponential growth with the distance to village center, whereas the abandoned farmland was mainly distributed in the areas with distance above 500 m from the village center. Moreover, we noticed that labor transfer and farmland circulation are two important factors that influence farmland abandonment. Labor's outbound transfer distance has a positive linkage with the possibility of farmland abandonment. Finally, it is recommended that development and adoption of corresponding policies on local urbanization and farmland circulation will facilitate to alleviate farmland abandonment.

Land Use of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and the Effect on Its Landscape Pattern in the Recent 50 Years

The paper makes detailed analysis on the changing processes of the main types of land use in Three Gorges Reservoir Area through the techniques of RS （Remote Sense） and GIS （Geography Information System）. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, many types of landscape pattern indexes are calculated and made correlation analysis. The results indicate that： in 1995 the ecological environment of Three Gorges Reservoir Area was the most vulnerable in the recent 50 years, but resumed in 2002; the landscape pattern diversity index, fractal dimension index and fragmentation index has close correlation with the area of land use/cover change （LUCC）. The research also releases that the increase of the cultivated land, grassland and construction land deteriorates the landscape ecological pattern, while the increase of forest land area will help restore the landscape ecological pattern to its original state. The rapid change of grassland is an important index of the change of landscape pattern, because it has the most effect on change of landscape pattern index.

Monitoring the Cultivated Slope Land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Remote Sensing and GIS

By means of combining auto-extraction with manual interpretation, the current distribution information about cultivated land is obtained. The distribution information of 1992 is extracted from the dynamic polygons of 2002. The monitoring mini-system of the cultivated slope land is established. In the system, detailed surveys, focused on the resources of cultivated slope land, are carried out. The results indicate that the area of the cultivated slope land is very large. Meanwhile, there are lots of cultivated steep slopes with gradient above 35°. The areas of steep land cultivated had been slowly reduced from 1992 to 2002. At the same time, the pressures of returning farm land to forestry are great in all counties. The conflicts between population growth, insufficient grain supply and stagnant economic development sharpen increasingly. It is inevitable to improve the agricultural structure.

Sustainable development pattern and the strategy in the Three Gorges Reservoir Areas

The development pattern, development situation, and existing problems of land exploitation in Zigui County, Three Gorges Reservoir Areas of China were presented. The sustainable development mode and its strategy in the Three Gorges Reservoir Areas was also discussed. A sustainable development framework for low mountain regions, middle mountain regions and high mountain regions was developed, and management countermeasures for structural optimization of complex ecosystems were advanced.

Spatial heterogeneity of fine root biomass of Pinus massoniana forests in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Environmental heterogeneity is a constant presence in the natural world that significantly affects plant behavior at a variety of levels of complexity. In order to estimate the spatial pattern of fine root biomass in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, the spatial heterogeneity of fine root biomass in the upper layer of soils （0-10 cm） in three Mas- son pine （Pinus massoniana） stands in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China, was studied in 30 m x 30 m plots with geostatistical analysis. The results indicate that 1） both the live and dead fine root biomass of stand 2 were less than those of other stands, 2） the spatial variation of fine roots in the three stands was caused together by structural and ran- dom factors with moderate spatial dependence and 3） the magnitude of spatial heterogeneity of live fine roots ranked as： stand 3 〉 stand 1 〉 stand 2, while that of dead fine roots was similar in the three stands. These findings suggested that the range of spatial autocorrelation for fine root biomass varied considerably in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, while soil properties, such as soil bulk density, organic matter and total nitrogen, may exhibit great effect on the spatial distribution of fine roots. Finally, we express our hope to be able to carry out further research on the quantitative relation- ship between the spatial heterogeneous patterns of plant and soil properties.

Non-Point-Source Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loadings from a Small Watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Non-point-source pollution has become a major threat to the water quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR);however,nutrient loadings from terrestrial sources are unclear due to a lack of in situ monitoring.A representative small watershed in the central part of the TGR area was selected to monitor the loss of nitrogen(N) and phosphorous(P) continuously along with the runoff from 2007 through 2009 to understand the exact sources and loadings.Results show that the non-point-source nitrogen and phosphorus comes mainly from the storm runoff from residential areas,citrus orchards and sloping croplands,which contributes up to 76% of the loadings in this watershed.Thus,a crucial measure for controlling non-point-source pollution is to intercept storm runoff from the three sources.Paddy fields provide a sink for non-point-source N and P by intercepting the runoff and sediment along with their different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus.The N and P removal efficiency by paddy fields from residential areas is within the range of 56% to 98%.Paddy fields are an important land-use option for reducing the non-point-source loading of N and P in the TGR area.

The Typical Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Soil Erosion Diversity Change on Different Slope Gradients Taking the Meixi River Watershed as an Example

[Objective] The diversity of soil erosion in the Meixi River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region was analyzed, in order to provide references for governance and protection of ecological environment of the study area. [Method] The soil erosion diversity index and evenness index of the Meixi River watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region were studied based on the TM images in the year of 1988, 1999 and 2010, supported by GIS technology to extract various types of soil erosion in the area with different slope gradients and calculate soil erosion di- versity index and evenness index. [Result~ As slope gradients grew, the diversity in- dex and evenness index of soil erosion decrease after increasing with a turning point from 25~ to 35~. [Conchlsion] The proportion of light-erosion in the study area is 15.57%. Hence, the increase of diversity index and evenness index with gradients of 5^-35~ shows that the higher erosion intensity, the more uniform erosion types and the indexes decreased in gradients higher than 35°, suggesting that the lower erosion intensity, the better environment. Distribution and variation of different land types have close relation with soil erosion diversity and evenness indexes. Though soil erosion problems have been alleviated, by comparing soil erosion diversity index and evenness index, it can be concluded that changes of indexes are lower than 0.02, and soil erosion should be continued to be well controlled.

Forces Driving Changes in Cultivated Land and Management Countermeasures in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

The Three Gorges project accelerates economic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.This paper aimed to investigate the distribution,changes and features of cultivated land in this area,analyze the forces driving the changes in cultivated land area,and propose the countermeasures for cultivated land management.Transition matrix was used to analyze the features of cultivated land changes,and quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis were adopted to research the driving forces according to the features of cultivated land changes.Cultivated land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area mainly lay to the northwest of the Yangtze River,especially the upper reaches.The areas of cultivated land increased from 1996 to 1999,then decreased from 2000 to 2006,and finally increased again from 2007 to 2009.The important forces driving changes in cultivated land included government policies,employment and food security,increasing construction land,agriculture structure adjustment,land rearrangement,inundation.During cultivated land management,firstly,it is necessary to insist on the principle of cultivated land protection,standardize land exploitation and strictly restrict the transformation of cultivated land into non-farming land.Secondly,land rearrangement must be implemented,which can not only increase the area of the cultivated land,but also improve the quality of the cultivated land.Thirdly,it is feasible to intensify eco-agriculture construction to increase the quantity and quality of cultivated land.Fourthly,it is helpful to improve the traditional agriculture production methods to promote cultivated land quality.Lastly,it is important to propagandize cultivated land protection and realize the enormous pressure of cultivated land shortage,making more people obligated to protect cultivated land.

On the land use in Three Gorges Reservoir area

In this study the arable land changes in two counties (Zigui and Xingshan) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China are investigated. The statistical data from the officially published statistical books are used to study these changes in the two counties during the past 50 years since 1949. The changes of arable land, changes of arable land per capita, and changes of multiple crop index in Zigui and Xingshan counties are examined. Using an index method, we conclude that the two counties are critical in the sustainable utilization of arable land.

Remote Sense and GIS-Based Division of Landslide Hazard Degree in Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

An evaluation model divided landslide hazard degrees in Wanzhou District of Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The model was established by GIS techniques and took land use/cover, stratum characters, slope aspect, slope gradient, elevation difference and slope shape as evaluation factors. The data of land use/cover were obtained by remote sensing, and the weights of the factors mentioned above were established by the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The results indicate, low danger areas in the studied area account for 66.51%, and high danger areas and very high danger areas occupy 1/3 of the total area. The regions of high and very high danger are mainly located around the urban area of Wanzhou District and on the banks of the Yangtze River with a relatively large area, where collapse and landslide directly threats densely populated areas and Three Gorges Reservoir. Slope destabilization, if occurs, will bring huge loss to social economy. All research results are consistent with the actual conditions; therefore, they can be regarded as a useful basis for planning and constructing of the reservoir area.

Impact on Mountainous Agricultural Development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area forced by Migrants of the Three Gorges Project

The Three Gorges Project attracts worldwide attention because of the Three Gorges migrants, and the agriculture of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is a foundation for the development of the Three Gorges migrants. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area is situated at the mountainous area with bad agricultural development conditions and relatively low levels of development. As a result, the large-scale migration fias special influence on its agricultural development, which has attracted much attention. The paper analyzes influence that the migrants have forced on its agricultural development based on the scientific data, and makes some explorations on the models that are suitable for the development of mountainous agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Optimized two-level placement of test points for multi-objective air monitoring of the Three Gorges Reservoir area

To fit the complicated geographic conditions of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, a two-level multi-objective monitoring system was developed to monitor the atmosphere of the area. Statistical analysis of environmental monitoring data and the macro control principle were employed to configure the upper layer. The lower layer was designed by the application of the thumb rule to a local terrain and specific point sources of pollution therein. The optimized two-level system comprises an upper layer of 16 monitoring stations distributed at places of diverse geographical, ecological, economical and social characteristics, and a lower layer of ]6 sub-machines at each monitoring station of the upper layer. This optimal outcome fits the complicated conditions of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, substantially cuts down the installation cost and the operation cost, and provides accurate monitoring data of atmosphere over the entire area with a high resolution.