A theoretical study of the multigrid three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme using a simple bilinear interpolation algorithm

In order to solve the so-called ＂bull-eye＂ problem caused by using a simple bilinear interpolation as an observational mapping operator in the cost function in the multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation scheme, a smoothing term, equivalent to a penalty term, is introduced into the cost function to serve as a means of troubleshooting. A theoretical analysis is first performed to figure out what on earth results in the issue of ＂bull-eye＂, and then the meaning of such smoothing term is elucidated and the uniqueness of solution of the multigrid 3DVAR with the smoothing term added is discussed through the theoretical deduction for one-dimensional （1D） case, and two idealized data assimilation experiments （one- and two-dimensional （2D） cases）. By exploring the relationship between the smoothing term and the recursive filter theoretically and practically, it is revealed why satisfied analysis results can be achieved by using such proposed solution for the issue of the multigrid 3DVAR.

Application of a Recursive Filter to a Three-Dimensional Variational Ocean Data Assimilation System

In order to improve the efficiency of the Ocean Variational Assimilation System （OVALS）, which has been widely used in various applications, an improved OVALS （OVALS2） is developed based on the recursive filter （RF） algorithm. The first advantage of OVALS2 is that memory storage can be substantially reduced in practice because it implicitly computes the background error covariance matrix; the second advantage is that there is no inversion of the background error covariance by preconditioning the control variable. For comparing the effectiveness between OVALS2 and OVALS, a set of experiments was implemented by assimilating expendable bathythermograph （XBT） and ARGO data into the Tropical Pacific circulation model. The results show that the efficiency of OVALS2 is much higher than that of OVALS. The computational time and the computer storage in the assimilation process were reduced by 83% and 77%, respectively. Additionally, the corresponding results produced by the RF are almost as good as those obtained by OVALS. These results prove that OVALS2 is suitable for operational numerical oceanic forecasting.

Variational Reconstruction and Simulation Experiments of Sea Surface Wind Field for Ocean Data Buoy

The sea surface wind field is an important physical parameter in oceanography and meteorology.With the continuous refinement of numerical weather prediction,air-sea interface materials,energy exchange,and other studies,three-dimensional(3D)wind field distribution at local locations on the sea surface must be measured accurately.The current in-situ observation of sea surface wind parameters is mainly achieved through the installation of wind sensors on ocean data buoys.However,the results obtained from this single-point measurement method cannot reflect wind field distribution in a vertical direction above the sea surface.Thus,the present paper proposes a theoretical framework for the optimal inversion of the 3D wind field structure variation in the area where the buoy is located.The variation analysis method is first used to reconstruct the wind field distribution at different heights of the buoy,after which theoretical analysis verification and numerical simulation experiments are conducted.The results indicate that the use of variational methods to reconstruct 3D wind fields is significantly effective in eliminating disturbance errors in observations,which also verifies the correctness of the theoretical analysis of this method.The findings of this article can provide a reference for the layout optimization design of wind measuring instruments in buoy observation systems and also provide theoretical guidance for the design of new observation buoys in the future.

Evaluation of Two Momentum Control Variable Schemes and Their Impact on the Variational Assimilation of Radar Wind Data:Case Study of a Squall Line

Different choices of control variables in variational assimilation can bring about different influences on the analyzed atmospheric state. Based on the WRF model＇s three-dimensional variational assimilation system, this study compares the be- havior of two momentum control variable options-streamfunction velocity potential （ψ-χ） and horizontal wind components （U-V）-in radar wind data assimilation for a squall line case that occurred in Jiangsu Province on 24 August 2014. The wind increment from the single observation test shows that the ψ-χ control variable scheme produces negative increments in the neighborhood around the observation point because streamfunction and velocity potential preserve integrals of velocity. On the contrary, the U-V control variable scheme objectively reflects the information of the observation itself. Furthermore, radial velocity data from 17 Doppler radars in eastern China are assimilated. As compared to the impact of conventional observation, the assimilation of radar radial velocity based on the U-V control variable scheme significantly improves the mesoscale dynamic field in the initial condition. The enhanced low-level jet stream, water vapor convergence and low-level wind shear result in better squall line forecasting. However, the ψ-χ control variable scheme generates a discontinuous wind field and unrealistic convergence/divergence in the analyzed field, which lead to a degraded precipitation forecast.

Coupling Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.

Testing a Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Method Using an Improved Intermediate Coupled Model for ENSO Analysis and Prediction

A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.

Parallel Computing of a Variational Data Assimilation Model for GPS/MET Observation Using the Ray-Tracing Method

The Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) analysis system of NCEP is used to assimilate meteorological data from the Global Positioning Satellite System (GPS/MET) refraction angles with the variational technique. Verified by radiosonde, including GPS/MET observations into the analysis makes an overall improvement to the analysis variables of temperature, winds, and water vapor. However, the variational model with the ray-tracing method is quite expensive for numerical weather prediction and climate research. For example, about 4 000 GPS/MET refraction angles need to be assimilated to produce an ideal global analysis. Just one iteration of minimization will take more than 24 hours CPU time on the NCEP's Cray C90 computer. Although efforts have been taken to reduce the computational cost, it is still prohibitive for operational data assimilation. In this paper, a parallel version of the three-dimensional variational data assimilation model of GPS/MET occultation measurement suitable for massive parallel processors architectures is developed. The divide-and-conquer strategy is used to achieve parallelism and is implemented by message passing. The authors present the principles for the code's design and examine the performance on the state-of-the-art parallel computers in China. The results show that this parallel model scales favorably as the number of processors is increased. With the Memory-IO technique implemented by the author, the wall clock time per iteration used for assimilating 1420 refraction angles is reduced from 45 s to 12 s using 1420 processors. This suggests that the new parallelized code has the potential to be useful in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate studies.

Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Experiments for a Heavy Rain Case During the 2002 IOP in China

A heavy rainfall event along the mei-yu front during 22-23 June 2002 was chosen for this study. To assess the impact of the routine and additional IOP (intensive observation period) radiosonde observations on the mesoscale heavy rainfall forecast, a series of four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation and model simulation experiments was conducted using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 and the MM5 4DVAR system. The effects of the intensive observations in the different areas on the heavy rainfall forecast were also investigated. The results showed that improvement of the forecast skill for mesoscale heavy rainfall intensity was possible from the assimilation of the IOP radiosonde observations. However, the impact of the IOP observations on the forecast of the rainfall pattern was not significant. Initial conditions obtained through the 4DVAR experiments with a 12-h assimilation window were capable of improving the 24-h forecast. The simulated results after the assimilation showed that it would be best to perform the intensive radiosonde observations in the upstream of the rainfall area and in the moisture passageway area at the same time. Initial conditions created by the 4DVAR led to the low-level moisture convergence over the rainfall area, enhanced frontogenesis and upward motion within the mei-yu front, and intensified middle- and high-level unstable stratification in front of the mei-yu front. Consequently, the heavy rainfall forecast was improved.

A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System：Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results

A dual-resolution（DR） version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter（EnKF）-3D ensemble variational（3DEnVar） coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution（HR） deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution（LR） EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation（GSI） 3D variational（3DVar）analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar.Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.

Observed spatiotemporal variation of three-dimensional structure and heat/salt transport of anticyclonic mesoscale eddy in Northwest Pacific

As in-situ observations are sparse,targeted observations of a specific mesoscale eddy are rare.Therefore,it is difficult to study the three-dimensional structure of moving mesoscale eddies.From April to September 2014,an anticyclonic eddy located at 135°E-155°E,26°N-42°N was observed using 17 rapidsampling Argo floats,and the spatiotemporal variations in the three-dimensional structure were studied.The results are as follows:(1)the eddy was identified and tracked using satellite altimeter data.It had a lifetime of 269 days and an average radius of 91.5 km.The lifetime of the eddy can be divided into three phases,i.e.,the initiation,maturity,and termination phases.The depth of its influence reached 1000 m;(2)the Argo profiles were divided into seven periods(approximately 20 days in each)for composite analysis,and the composite Argo profiles and CARS2009(CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas)climatology data were merged following the data-interpolating variational analysis(DIVA)method to reconstruct the three-dimensional structure.The temperature and salinity anomaly cores of the anticyclonic mesoscale eddy are located from 400 to 600 m.From 800 to 900 m,there is an area of low salinity at the center of the eddy.A high concentration anomaly of dissolved oxygen was located at approximately 250 m;(3)to better understand the features of the eddy and its interaction with the surroundings,we calculated the anomalous velocity of the geostrophic flow and the heat,salt,dissolved oxygen transport anomaly,and discussed the eddy's origin and its adjustments to topography.The maximum heat,salt,and oxygen transport caused by eddy were 9.37×10^11 W,3.08×10^3 kg/s,and 2.70×10^2 kg/s,which all occurred during the termination phase.This study highlights the applicability of using Argo floats to understand the three-dimensional structure thermohaline features of eddies in the North Pacific.

The three-dimensional structure and seasonal variation of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation

The three-dimensional structure and the seasonal variation of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation （NPMOC） are analyzed based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data and Argo profiling float data. The NPMOC displays a multi-cell structure with four cells in the North Pacific altogether. The TC and the STC are a strong clockwise meridional cell in the low latitude ocean and a weaker clockwise meridional cell between 7°N and 18°N, respectively, while the DTC and the subpolar cell are a weaker anticlockwise meridional cell between 3°N and 15°N and a weakest anticlockwise meridional cell between 35°N and 50°N, respectively. The DTC, the TC and the STC are all of very strong seasonal variations. As to the DTC, the southward transport is strongest in fall and weakest in spring. For the TC, the northward transport is strongest in winter and weakest in spring, while the southward transport is strongest in fall and weakest in spring, which is associated with the strong southward fiow of the DTC in fall. As the STC, the northward transport is strongest in winter and weakest in summer, while the southward transport is strongest in summer and weakest in spring. This seasonal difference may be associated with the DTC. The zonal wind stress and the east-west slope of sea level play important roles in the seasonal variations of the TC, the STC and the DTC.

Variational Assimilation of Satellite Cloud Water/Ice Path and Microphysics Scheme Sensitivity to the Assimilation of a Rainfall Case

Hydrometeor variables （cloud water and cloud ice mixing ratios） are added into the WRF three-dimensional variational assimilation system as additional control variables to directly analyze hydrometeors by assimilating cloud observations. In addition, the background error covariance matrix of hydrometeors is modeled through a control variable transform, and its characteristics discussed in detail. A suite of experiments using four microphysics schemes （LIN, SBU-YLIN, WDM6 and WSM6） are performed with and without assimilating satellite cloud liquid/ice water path. We find analysis of hydrometeors with cloud assimilation to be significantly improved, and the increment and distribution of hydrometeors are consistent with the characteristics of background error covariance. Diagnostic results suggest that the forecast with cloud assimilation represents a significant improvement, especially the ability to forecast precipitation in the first seven hours. It is also found that the largest improvement occurs in the experiment using the WDM6 scheme, since the assimilated cloud information can sustain for longer in this scheme. The least improvement, meanwhile, appears in the experiment using the SBU-YLIN scheme.

Variational Assimilation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Hourly Rainfall Observations for a Meso-βScale Heavy Precipitation Event During the 2002 Mei-Yu Season

Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves.

GENERALIZED VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION METHOD AND NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT FOR NON-DIFFERENTIAL SYSTEM

The generalized variational data assimilation for non-differential dynamical systems is studied.There is no tangent linear model for non-differential systems and thus the general adjoint model can not be derived in the traditional way.The weak form of the original system was introduced, and then the generalized adjoint model was derived. The generalized variational data assimilation methods were developed for non-differential low dimensional system and non-differential high dimensional system with global and local observations. Furthermore, ideas in inverse problems are introduced to 4DVAR (Four-dimensional variational) of non-differential partial differential system with local observations.

Optimal estimation of absolute geostrophic velocity field in vicinity of the Luzon Strait using variational data assimilation technique

A P - vector method is optimized using the variational data assimilation technique(VDAT). The absolute geostrophic velocity fields in the vicinity of the Luzon Strait (LS) are calculated, the spatial structures and seasonal variations of the absolute geostrophic velocity field are investigated. Our results show that the Kuroshio enters the South China Sea (SCS) in the south and middle of the Luzon Strait and flows out in the north, so the Kuroshio makes a slight clockwise curve in the Luzon Strait, and the curve is strong in winter and weak in summer. During the winter, a westward current appears in the surface, and locates at the west of the Luzon Strait. It is the north part of a cyclonic gyre which exits in the northeast of the SCS; an anti-cyclonic gyre occurs on the intermediate level, and it exits in the northeast of the SCS, and an eastward current exits in the southeast of the anti-cyclonic gyre.

Hybrid three-dimensional variation and particle filtering for nonlinear systems

This work addresses the problem of estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems with sparse observations.We present a hybrid three-dimensional variation（3DVar） and particle piltering（PF） method,which combines the advantages of 3DVar and particle-based filters.By minimizing the cost function,this approach will produce a better proposal distribution of the state.Afterwards the stochastic resampling step in standard PF can be avoided through a deterministic scheme.The simulation results show that the performance of the new method is superior to the traditional ensemble Kalman filtering（EnKF） and the standard PF,especially in highly nonlinear systems.

Variational Quality Control of Non-Gaussian Innovations in the GRAPES m3DVAR System: Mass Field Evaluation of Assimilation Experiments

The existence of outliers can seriously influence the analysis of variational data assimilation.Quality control allows us to effectively eliminate or absorb these outliers to produce better analysis fields.In particular,variational quality control(VarQC) can process gray zone outliers and is thus broadly used in variational data assimilation systems.In this study,governing equations are derived for two VarQC algorithms that utilize different contaminated Gaussian distributions(CGDs): Gaussian plus flat distribution and Huber norm distribution.As such,these VarQC algorithms can handle outliers that have non-Gaussian innovations.Then,these VarQC algorithms are implemented in the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES) model-level three-dimensional variational data assimilation(m3 DVAR) system.Tests using artificial observations indicate that the VarQC method using the Huber distribution has stronger robustness for including outliers to improve posterior analysis than the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution.Furthermore,real observation experiments show that the distribution of observation analysis weights conform well with theory,indicating that the application of VarQC is effective in the GRAPES m3 DVAR system.Subsequent case study and longperiod data assimilation experiments show that the spatial distribution and amplitude of the observation analysis weights are related to the analysis increments of the mass field(geopotential height and temperature).Compared to the control experiment,VarQC experiments have noticeably better posterior mass fields.Finally,the VarQC method using the Huber distribution is superior to the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution,especially at the middle and lower levels.

Three-dimensional structure of an observed cyclonic mesoscale eddy in the Northwest Pacific and its assimilation experiment

Mesoscale eddies play an important role in modulating the ocean circulation.Many previous studies on the threedimensional structure of mesoscale eddies were mainly based on composite analysis,and there are few targeted observations for individual eddies.A cyclonic eddy surveyed during an oceanographic cruise in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is investigated in this study.The three-dimensional structure of this cyclonic eddy is revealed by observations and simulated by the four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4 DVAR)system combined with the Regional Ocean Modeling System.The observation and assimilation results together present the characteristics of the cyclonic eddy.The cold eddy has an obvious dual-core structure of temperature anomaly.One core is at 50–150 m and another is at 300–550 m,which both have the average temperature anomaly of approximately-3.5℃.The salinity anomaly core is between 250 m and 500 m,which is approximately-0.3.The horizontal velocity structure is axis-asymmetric and it is enhanced on the eastern side of the cold eddy.In the assimilation experiment,sea level anomaly,sea surface temperature,and in situ measurements are assimilated into the system,and the results of assimilation are close to the observations.Based on the high-resolution assimilation output results,the study also diagnoses the vertical velocity in the mesoscale eddy,which reaches the maximum of approximately 10 m/d.The larger vertical velocity is found to be distributed in the range of 0.5 to 1 time of the normalized radius of the eddy.The validation of the simulation result shows that the 4 DVAR method is effective to reconstruct the three-dimensional structure of mesoscale eddy and the research is an application to study the mesoscale eddy in the Northwest Pacific by combining observation and assimilation methods.

Optimal estimation of zonal velocity and transport through Luzon Strait using variational data assimilation technique

A P-vector method was optimized using variational data assimilation technique, with which the vertical structures and seasonal variations of zonal velocities and transports were investigated. The results showed that westward and eastward flowes occur in the Luzon Strait in the same period in a year. However the net volume transport is westward. In the upper level (0m -500m),the westward flow exits in the middle and south of the Luzon Strait, and the eastward flow exits in the north. There are two centers of westward flow and one center of eastward flow. In the middle of the Luzon Strait, westward and eastward flowes appear alternately in vertical direction. The westward flow strengthens in winter and weakens in summer. The net volume transport is strong in winter (5.53 Sv) but weak in summer (0.29 Sv). Except in summer, the volume transport in the upper level accounts for more than half of the total volume transport (0m bottom). In summer, the net volume transport in the upper level is eastward (1.01 Sv), but westward underneath.