This paper has two aims. The first one is to investigate the existence of chaotic structures in the oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns by combining the Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy, an...This paper has two aims. The first one is to investigate the existence of chaotic structures in the oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns by combining the Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy, and the second one is to analyze the dependence behavior of oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns from January 02, 1990, to June06, 2017. Lyapunov exponents and Kolmogorov entropy determined that the oil price and the stock return series exhibited chaotic behavior. TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods were applied to study the co-movement among the selected variables. The results showed significant evidence of nonlinear tail dependence between the volatility of the oil prices, the expectations of investors and the stock returns. Further, upper and lower tail dependence and comovement between the analyzed series could not be rejected. Moreover, the TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods revealed that the volatility of oil price had crucial effects on the stock returns and on the expectations of investors in the long run.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
This paper investigated ticket price system of 48 world heritage scenic areas in China, and discovered that ticket price of world heritage scenic areas in China was generally high. Disadvantages of this phenomenon wer...This paper investigated ticket price system of 48 world heritage scenic areas in China, and discovered that ticket price of world heritage scenic areas in China was generally high. Disadvantages of this phenomenon were analyzed, influence factors of the ticket price were explored, and then practical countermeasures were proposed.展开更多
With the arrival of the ＂housing stock＂ in first - tier cities, the second - handhousing^market will become the dominant property market. This ardcle aim to the first - tiercities of second - hand housing prices and...With the arrival of the ＂housing stock＂ in first - tier cities, the second - handhousing^market will become the dominant property market. This ardcle aim to the first - tiercities of second - hand housing prices and new home price index for the empirical analysis, thedata related to the cointegration analysis found that the result of the first -tier cities real estatemarket in China, the new home price index is the significant factors influencing the second -hand house price indexi For Beijing, Shanghai second - hand housing and new home price in-dex time series johans test, found that there exists cointegration relationship between two varia-bles,the new city real estate market prices out of a line on the secondary market have clearguide. Therefore, the real estate market regulation aiming at the first -tier cities and the＂housing stock＂ should take the second - hand housing market as the main direction, startingwith the sale price and influencing factors of new houses. At the same time, in different cities,we should adhere to the city＇ s policies, reflect the policy differentiation, promote the reformof the real estate supply side, and promote the return of housing properties.展开更多
文摘This paper has two aims. The first one is to investigate the existence of chaotic structures in the oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns by combining the Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy, and the second one is to analyze the dependence behavior of oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns from January 02, 1990, to June06, 2017. Lyapunov exponents and Kolmogorov entropy determined that the oil price and the stock return series exhibited chaotic behavior. TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods were applied to study the co-movement among the selected variables. The results showed significant evidence of nonlinear tail dependence between the volatility of the oil prices, the expectations of investors and the stock returns. Further, upper and lower tail dependence and comovement between the analyzed series could not be rejected. Moreover, the TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods revealed that the volatility of oil price had crucial effects on the stock returns and on the expectations of investors in the long run.
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
基金Sponsored by Phase-V Undergraduates’Innovation and Venture Training Program of Liaoning University of Science and Technology
文摘This paper investigated ticket price system of 48 world heritage scenic areas in China, and discovered that ticket price of world heritage scenic areas in China was generally high. Disadvantages of this phenomenon were analyzed, influence factors of the ticket price were explored, and then practical countermeasures were proposed.
文摘With the arrival of the ＂housing stock＂ in first - tier cities, the second - handhousing^market will become the dominant property market. This ardcle aim to the first - tiercities of second - hand housing prices and new home price index for the empirical analysis, thedata related to the cointegration analysis found that the result of the first -tier cities real estatemarket in China, the new home price index is the significant factors influencing the second -hand house price indexi For Beijing, Shanghai second - hand housing and new home price in-dex time series johans test, found that there exists cointegration relationship between two varia-bles,the new city real estate market prices out of a line on the secondary market have clearguide. Therefore, the real estate market regulation aiming at the first -tier cities and the＂housing stock＂ should take the second - hand housing market as the main direction, startingwith the sale price and influencing factors of new houses. At the same time, in different cities,we should adhere to the city＇ s policies, reflect the policy differentiation, promote the reformof the real estate supply side, and promote the return of housing properties.
