A method to calculate design tide levels on the basis of numerical model of tidal current and its application

In order to determine the design tide levels in the areas without measured tide level data, especially in the areas where it is difficult to measure tidal levels, a calculation method based on a numerical model of tidal current is proposed. The essentials of the method are described, and its application is illustrated with an example. The results of the application show that the design tide levels calculated by the method are close to those determined by long-time measured tide level data, and its calculation precision is high, so it is feasible to use the method to determine the design tide levels in the areas.

Validation of Sea Level Data in the East Asian Marginal Seas: Comparison between TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter and In-Situ Tide Gauges

In an effort to assess the reliability of satellite altimeter systems, the authors conduct a comparative analysis of sea level data that were collected from the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter and 10 tide gauges (TG) near the satellite passing ground tracks. The analysis is made using datasets collected from marginal sea regions surrounding the Korean Peninsula at T/P cycles of 2 to 230, which correspond to October 1992 to December 1998. Proper treatment of tidal errors is a very critical step in data processing because the study area has very strong tide. When the T/P data are processed, the procedures of Park and Gamberoni (1995) are adapted to reduce errors associated with the tide. When the T/P data are processed in this way, the alias periods of M2, S2, and K1 constituents are found to be 62.1, 58.7, and 173 days repectively. The compatibility of the T/P and TG datasets are examined at various filtering periods. The results indicate that the low-frequency signals of the T/P data can be interpreted more safely with longer filtering periods (such as up to the maximum selected value of 200 days). When RMS errors for the 200-day low-pass filter period are compared with all 10 tidal stations, the values span the range of 2.8 to 6.7 cm. The results of a correlation analysis for this filtering period also show a strong agreement between the T/P and TG datasets across all stations investigated (e.g.,p- values consistently less than 0.001). Hence according to the analysis, the conclusion is made that the analysis of surface sea level using satellite altimeter data can be made safely with reasonably extended filtering periods such as 200 days.

Short-term and imminent anomalies of earthquake of load and unload response ratio of the well level to earth tides

In this paper, through the nonlinear response of rock strain and stress, we have analized the physical mechanism of loading and unloading response ratio of the well level to the earth tides,the respouse of an aquifer of confined well to bulk strain tide and showed two methods of the calculation of loading and unloading response ratio of the well level to the earth tides. We took the example of the Yu 01 well, which is near the epicenter of Heze M S 5.9 earthquake, calculated the response rate and loading and unloading response ratio of two kinds of the earth tides of it. The response rate and response ratio before the earthquake had the variation of increase.

Evolutive Trend of Water Level in the Ebrie Lagoon by Reconstitution of the Tide Gauge Time Series in Front of the Abidjan Coastline (Côte d’Ivoire)

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report shows that sea-level rise, which has been accelerated since the 19th century resulting to the global warming, threatens coastal areas with high population growth. A Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) assessment highlighted the lack of data in Africa, and in Côte d’Ivoire in particular. In order to estimate the evolutionary trend of sea level along the Ivorian coast, and to draw up preventive plans to protect properties and populations, we digitized 65 years of historical tidegrams recorded in the Ebrie Lagoon, using the “Surfer” and “Nunieau” software, then processed them using “T-Tide” and “U-Tide” software. The average levels were calculated using the Demerliac filter from complete daily (day and night) recordings for providing a usable database of 31 years of hourly lagoon data from 1979 to 2015. Our results show that a mean water level in lagoon is 1.04 m. The evolutionary trend in sea level, estimated in the lagoon via the Vridi canal, during the rainy season is the most significant at 2.93 mm/year. This is followed by the dry season, with a trend of 2.89 mm/year. The flood season trend is 2.78 mm/year. This suggests that marine water inflows dominate continental inflows. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Côte d’Ivoire’s coasts to the risk of marine submersion.

INFLUENCE OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON SHANGHAI ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND STORM SURGE AND ESTIMATION OF PROBABLE WATER LEVEL

A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.

Numerical modelling of the sea level under the actions of the tide and strong wind in the Bohai Sea

In this paper, the numerical modelling of the tidal level and current in the Bohai Sea was carried out with ADI method, by taking the sum of four main tidal components M2,S2K2,O1 as the open boundary condition. The calculated values were consistent with the predicted ones (the observed values in the case of calm) in the Tidal Table. On the basis of the modelling of the tide, the sea level and current fields under the effects of strong wind were simulated. The calculated results were also quite satisfactory.

Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures. However, frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level, whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge. The two impacting factors are both random variables, and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine extreme design water levels. The lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type 3, traditional maximum entropy, and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately, and the bivariate normal, Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions. To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data, the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed. Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen hydrological station in the Pearl River Basin, China, these probability models are applied to obtain designs for extreme water levels using the largest sum of the astronomical tide and storm surge obtained under fixed joint return periods. These design values provide an improved approach for determining the necessary height of coastal and offshore structures.

Study on Volume Strain Inversion from Water Level Change of Well-aquifer Systems

Based on linear poroelasfic and hydrogeology theory, a mathenmatical expression describing the relationship between water level clmnge and aquifer volume strain is put forward. Combined with earth tidal theory, we analyze the response characteristics from well-aquifer water level change to earth tide of volume strain and present a method of volume strain inversion from water level clmnge. Comparing the results of inversion with real observed data, we found that there is a good consistency. This suggests that the method of volume strain inversion from water level clmnge is proper. It will offer a reference for learning about hydrogeology characteristics, volume strain and searching for precursor anomalies.

Spatial and Temporal Features of Regional Variations in Mean Sea Level around Taiwan

Satellite altimeter and in-situ tide gauge records are probably the most common means to obtain observational data for the study of changes in mean sea level. In this study, we employed these data to discuss the spatial and temporal features of regional variations in mean sea level around Taiwan. The results showed that most of the regional mean sea surface heights (SSH) around Taiwan are higher than the global mean sea surface heights. Most of the sea level trends are greater than the global mean sea level trend as well. We obtained diverse distribution results from the altimeter sea level records in neighboring areas by distributions fit, and the altimeter sea level records showed obvious inhomogene- ity. In addition, periodic fluctuations in the records regarding mean sea level were revealed in our study, based on Fourier spectra and wavelet scalograms.

Tidal effects on hydrostatic leveling system used in high precision alignment of particle accelerator

Hydrostatic leveling system(HLS)is widely used in precision engineering survey,especially the alignment of particle accelerator,and the tidal effects on the measurement accuracy of HLS is non-ignorable,thus studies on tidal effects on the HLS is vital.A set of HLS was installed in Jingxian seismostation for verifying the methods to handle the tidal effects on the readings of HLS.Harmonic analysis of the data recorded by HLS and DSQ water tube clinometers in Jingxian seismostation and contrastive analysis of the results are completed.The tilt tide can be well reflected in the data of the both instruments and the results are both reliable.The reasons of the difference between the results are analyzed in this paper.Besides,a validation study based on the measurement data of the HLS used in SPring-8 storage ring for tidal correction on the reading of HLS is completed.The research establishes a foundation for HLS to be applied in micron-level precision alignment of particle accelerator in the future.

中国沿海地区热带气旋危险性分析

基于1980—2016年的西北太平洋热带气旋尺度资料,采用2种方法分析了热带气旋灾害的危险性。第一种方法根据热带气旋的风圈半径,用GIS生成了每个气旋的影响范围,对于登陆中国沿海的227个热带气旋,用叠加法得到了其影响范围与频次。第二种方法侧重热带气旋引发的风暴潮灾害,用潮位模型估算了热带气旋登陆时的潮位数据,提出了H3指标,该指标用潮位、风速和中心气压3个因子计算潮位点的风暴潮危险性,并根据H3指标得到了海岸线的危险性综合指标。分析结果表明,福建、广东两省受热带气旋的影响最为严重。37 a间,福建省有80%的面积(约9.8万km^(2))受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次;广东省则有70%的面积(约12.6万km2)受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次。受风暴潮危害大的海岸线主要位于广东、广西、福建、浙江四省,危险性指标在30以上的有广东的湛江市、茂名市、江门市、阳江市和珠海市;广西的北海市、防城港市和钦州市;福建的福州市以及浙江的台州市和温州市。

雷达验潮仪计量检测技术研究

雷达验潮仪小巧轻便、安装维护简易,已逐渐应用到海洋水文观测领域。本文提出了一种基于检测水塔进行雷达验潮仪检测的方法,明确了检测项目、检测方法、数据处理过程,并重点分析了影响检测结果准确性的因素,提出了检测要求。检测结果显示:导波式雷达验潮仪检测结果较好,最大误差为±3 mm;开放式雷达验潮仪正、反行程潮高误差走势基本一致,但在低水位点和高水位点误差偏大为±11 mm,并进一步分析了主要原因;两种类型仪器的回程误差结果均较好。研究内容填补了该类潮位观测仪器的检测空白,对推动雷达验潮仪计量检测技术的发展和相关国家计量技术规范的制定具有重要指导与促进作用。

变化条件下长江口防洪御潮及供水保障研究进展与展望

近一个世纪以来,全球气候变暖导致海平面持续上升,增加了整个长江口的水深,抬高了潮汐和风暴潮的基础水位,使得河口咸潮入侵,洪水和风暴潮发生的频率和强度增加。同时,由于长江流域水土保持和水库群建设,进入河口的泥沙量锐减,加剧了河口咸潮上溯,对区域人群生产生活产生一定影响。从全球气候变暖背景下长江口海平面上升和演变规律、长江口人类活动与气候变化影响下的动力要素变化、河口咸潮入侵时空分布和水盐交换机制及供水安全风险、海平面上升对海堤防洪御潮能力的影响、长江口地区防洪御潮韧性等5个方面总结归纳了现有研究成果,提出未来研究的方向,以期对保障河口地区水资源安全利用和防洪御潮能力提升提供参考。

水位升降和潮汐水位作用下围堰的安全稳定性

为了分析水位升降和潮汐水位作用下滨海区域围堰的安全稳定性,基于厦门市集美岛车站工程实例,应用Plaxis有限元程序的非饱和土渗流理论,采用有限元强度折减法,进行不同水位升降速度及潮汐水位循环作用下围堰的稳定性分析,通过围堰的安全系数变化曲线分析水位变化对围堰稳定性影响的机理。结果表明:围堰安全系数在水位升高时减小,水位上升速度越快,围堰安全系数减小速率越大;水位下降时存在临界水位降速,临界水位降速为1.0 m·d^(-1),当水位下降速度超过临界水位降速时,围堰安全系数先减小后增大,当水位下降速度小于临界水位降速时,围堰安全系数逐渐增大;围堰安全系数在落潮时增大,在涨潮时减小,潮汐振幅越大,围堰安全系数增值越大,随着循环次数的增加,相邻两次循环间围堰安全系数增量逐渐减小并趋于稳定。

台风影响下鲗鱼涌站极值潮位非一致性分析

为研究全球变暖和人类活动大背景中台风影响下的多年一遇潮位设计值是否发生改变,本文针对鲗鱼涌站台风暴潮过程极值序列,对基于年极值数据的非一致性广义可加模型(Generalized additive models for location,scale and shape,GAMLSS)进行了改进,提出了非一致性条件下的泊松复合极值分布模型,并分别采用一致性设计值计算方法、期望超过次数(Expected number of exceedances,ENE)法、设计年限水平(Design life level,DLL)法、等可靠度(Equal reliability,ER)法和设计年限平均值(Average design life level,ADLL)法,计算了潮位设计值。研究表明,非一致方法计算的潮位设计值高于一致性方法计算的潮位设计值,且ER法和ADLL法适用性更广,可为海岸防灾减灾提供指导。

利用SG平滑滤波优化GNSS-R潮位反演

利用全球导航卫星系统反射(GNSS-R)信号进行潮位反演时,需要对多路径频率进行估计.常规反演方法仅对主频率估计,因此存在数据利用率低、反演结果时间分辨率不足的问题.为解决该问题,本文利用Savitzky-Golay(SG)平滑滤波优化GNSS-R潮位反演.首先,利用Lomb-Scargle周期图(LSP)法提取信号功率的前4个频率f_(1)~f_(4),并反演它们对应的潮位值;然后,利用SG平滑滤波方法提取最佳反演结果;最后,以法国BRST站和MAYG站30 d的数据验证算法的有效性.通过与LSP法和窗口LSP(WINLSP)法进行对比,结果表明:相比LSP法,滤波后BRST站和MAYG站的日均反演值数量分别提升34.3%和19.6%,反演值的最大时间间隔分别减少43.2%和29.4%,RMSE值变化不大;相比WINLSP法,滤波后BRST站和MAYG站的日均反演值数量分别提升24.2%和45.9%,反演值最大时间间隔分别减少25.4%和28.6%,RMSE值均减少了7 cm.总体而言,该方法能够在保证精度的前提下提高反演结果的数量,同时提高了数据的利用率和潮位反演的时间分辨率.

潮汐水位对海底地层孔隙水压影响研究

潮汐作用会使海底地层一定深度内的孔隙水压不断改变,进而影响隧道结构寿命。以厦门同安进出岛通道工程为背景,采用COMSOL Multiphysics有限元软件模拟潮汐作用对海底地层的影响,探讨了潮汐作用下地层渗透性、地基土刚度、潮汐幅值等关键参数对海底地层响应的敏感性。研究结果表明,随着深度的增加,地层受潮汐作用的影响逐渐减小,落潮、涨潮对粉质黏土地层影响深度分别为3.0、4.2 m。建设海底隧道工程时,为避免或减小隧道工程受潮汐作用的影响,选线时应尽量采用合适的深度。分析结果可为后续海底隧道选线提供参考与借鉴。

一种GNSS-MR海平面高度反演模型研究

针对大地测量型GNSS接收机获取的信噪比(Signal to Noise Ratio,SNR)观测值存在趋势项分离不佳和信号叠加干涉的问题,融合自适应噪声完备集合鲁棒局部均值分解方法对原始SNR信号进行分解,有效分离SNR观测值中的趋势项并提取相应的潮位信号,以布设在美国华盛顿州星期五海港岸边的SC02测站为例,利用实测数据反演潮位变化并与传统的低阶多项式拟合方法进行对比分析。结果表明,融合CERLMDAN方法的反演结果的均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)、相关系数分别为0.56 m和0.97,相比于传统方法的反演精度提升了33.7%。

围填海工程对九龙江河口纳潮量影响研究

纳潮量是海湾可以接纳的潮水体积,对维护海湾良好的生态环境至关重要。文章首先针对围填海工程所在厦门九龙江河口的自然条件进行了分析。其次,分别采用传统计算方法、实测水文资料统计以及经充分验证的二维潮流数值模型对九龙江河口现状条件下的纳潮量进行了统计计算。最后,采用数值模拟手段对厦门港海沧港区围填海工程建成后九龙江河口水流特征、潮位变化和纳潮量变化进行了模拟计算,并采用传统计算与数值模拟相结合的方法对其进行了合理性分析。研究结果表明:海沧港区围填海工程面积约为2.95 km^(2),工程实施后九龙江河口纳潮量减少率约为4.3%。

渤、黄海天文潮—风暴潮相互作用及其对极值水位的贡献

基于Delft3D模型建立了中国渤、黄海风暴潮数值模型,选取1979—2020年影响该海域的93场风暴过程(包括台风、寒潮和温带气旋),模拟了所产生的风暴增水和风暴潮总水位。采用泊松—皮尔逊复合极值分布理论,推算了渤、黄海对应不同重现期的极值水位;通过数值试验,对天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对极值水位的贡献进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,渤海的莱州湾、渤海湾,以及黄海的江华湾、西朝鲜湾风暴增水最大,其中江华湾北侧和渤海湾西南侧的百年一遇风暴增水可达4 m;天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用在潮差较大、水深较浅的河口、湾顶区域更为显著,与耦合模型结果相比,非线性作用使极值水位值偏小,天文潮、风暴潮增水的线性叠加可显著高估极值水位,高估的幅值可达0.5~0.8 m。考虑重现期极值水位是海岸灾害防护工程的关键设计参数之一,对海岸构筑物的安全和建造成本影响极大,应重视天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对重现期水位的影响。