Time function of surface subsidence based on Harris model in mined-out area

The surface subsidence is a common environmental hazard in mined-out area. Based on careful analysis of the regularity of surface subsidence in mined-out area, we proposed a new time function based on Harris curve model in consideration of the shortage of current surface subsidence time functions. By analyzing the characteristics of the new time function, we found that it could meet the dynamic process, the velocity change process and the acceleration change process during surface subsidence. Then its rationality had been verified through project cases. The results show that the proposed time function model can give a good reflection of the regularity of surface subsidence in mined-out area and can accurately predict surface subsidence. And the prediction data of the model are a little greater than measured data on condition of proper measured data quantity, which is safety in the engineering. This model provides a new method for the analysis of surface subsidence in mined-out area and reference for future prediction, and it is valuable to engineering application.

AN INTEGRATION METHOD WITH FITTING CUBIC SPLINE FUNCTIONS TO A NUMERICAL MODEL OF 2ND-ORDER SPACE-TIME DIFFERENTIAL REMAINDER——FOR AN IDEAL GLOBAL SIMULATION CASE WITH PRIMITIVE ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS

In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.

Time lag characteristics of sap flow in seed-maize and their implications for modeling transpiration in an arid region of Northwest China

Plant capacity for water storage leads to time lags between basal stem sap flow and transpiration in various woody plants. Internal water storage depends on the sizes of woody plants. However, the changes and its influencing factors in time lags of basal stem flow during the development of herbaceous plants including crops remain unclear. A field experiment was conducted in an arid region of Northwest China to examine the time lag characteristics of sap flow in seed-maize and to calibrate the transpiration modeling. Cross-correlation analysis was used to estimate the time lags between stem sap flow and meteorological driving factors including solar radiation（R_s） and vapor pressure deficit of the air（VPD_（air））. Results indicate that the changes in seed-maize stem sap flow consistently lagged behind the changes in R_s and preceded the changes in VPD_（air） both on hourly and daily scales, suggesting that light-mediated stomatal closures drove sap flow responses. The time lag in the maize＇s sap flow differed significantly during different growth stages and the difference was potentially due to developmental changes in capacitance tissue and/or xylem during ontogenesis. The time lags between stem sap flow and R_s in both female plants and male plants corresponded to plant use of stored water and were independent of total plant water use. Time lags of sap flow were always longer in male plants than in female plants. Theoretically, dry soil may decrease the speed by which sap flow adjusts ahead of shifts in VPD_（air） in comparison with wet soil and also increase the speed by which sap flow adjusts to R_s. However, sap flow lags that were associated with R_s before irrigation and after irrigation in female plants did not shift. Time series analysis method provided better results for simulating seed-maize sap flow with advantages of allowing for fewer variables to be included. This approach would be helpful in improving the accuracy of estimation for canopy transpiration and conductance using meteorological measurements.

A Simplified Nonlinear Generalized Maxwell Model for Predicting the Time Dependent Behavior of Viscoelastic Materials

In this paper, a simple nonlinear Maxwell model consisting of a nonlinear spring connected in series with a nonlinear dashpot obeying a power-law with constant material parameters, for representing successfully the time-dependent properties of a variety of viscoelastic materials, is proposed. Numerical examples are performed to illustrate the sensitivity of the model to material parameters.

A Kind of Time-Delayed COVID-19 Dynamical Model with Vaccination

In the paper, we study a kind of time-delayed novel coronavirus pneumonia dynamical model with vaccination. This model considers that people are vaccinated, and the human immune system has a series of processes, which need a certain time. We first obtain the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number R0, and the system has a unique endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. Then we discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium with different delays τ. For τ = 0, using the Lyapunov function approach, we obtained the stability of disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, respectively. For any delay τ ≠ 0, using the Routh-Hurwitz Criteria, we obtained that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. We also find the critical value τ0 at the endemic equilibrium, and obtain the condition that the system has a Hopf bifurcation at the endemic equilibrium. Finally, with the suitable choices of the parameters, some numerical simulations are presented in order to verify the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.

Parameter Estimation of Time-Varying ARMA Model

The auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model with time-varying parameters is analyzed. The time-varying parameters are assumed to be a linear combination of a set of basis time-varying functions, and the feedback linear estimation algorithm is used to estimate the time-varying parameters of the ARMA model. This algorithm includes 2 linear least squares estimations and a linear filter. The influence of the order of basis time-(varying) functions on parameters estimation is analyzed. The method has the advantage of simple, saving computation time and storage space. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show the validity of this method.

ADDITIVE HAZARDS MODEL WITH TIME-VARYING REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS

This article discusses regression analysis of failure time under the additive hazards model, when the regression coefficients are time-varying. The regression coefficients are estimated locally based on the pseudo-score function [12] in a window around each time point. The proposed method can be easily implemented, and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with easily estimated variances. The simulation studies show that our estimation procedure is reliable and useful.

基于分段Knothe时间函数的开采沉陷预计模型优化及应用

淮南矿区煤层埋深达800~1200 m,开采影响传播时间长,在使用原始分段Knothe时间函数模型预计该地区地表沉陷动态过程时,存在的不足为:预计的地表沉陷无启动阶段,下沉速度达到最大时对应的地表沉陷值并不等于最大下沉值的1/2,时间因素影响系数(c)以及地面点最大下沉速度对应的时刻(τ)无法实现自适应取值。通过理论研究以及资料分析,应用地表沉陷启动时间t_(0)以及修正模型对Knothe时间函数模型进行优化,并结合淮南矿区地质特征以及概率积分模型相关理论构建了c、τ求解模型,提出了适合淮南厚冲积层矿区的分段Knothe时间函数优化模型。以淮南某矿1613(3)工作面为例,采用所提优化Knothe时间函数模型、原始分段Knothe时间函数模型、分段Knothe时间函数模型分别进行了地表沉陷预测。结果表明:以地表点的实测值作为参考,所提出的优化模型在预计地表形变时,预计标准差为295.8 mm,总体精度较原始分段Knothe时间函数提高了49%,较分段Knothe时间函数提高了53%,证明了所提优化模型的优异性。

数模—动模混合仿真系统的接口建模与稳定性分析

为满足现代电力系统实时仿真的发展需求,数模-动模混合仿真系统结合实时数字仿真和物理动态模拟仿真的优点,成为现代电力系统研究的重要仿真方法。接口系统是混合仿真系统设计中的核心与难点。为了深入分析混合仿真系统的稳定性,对接口系统各个组成环节进行建模得到系统开环传递函数,分别根据劳斯判据和奈奎斯特判据研究开环传递函数中不同参数对系统稳定性的影响。理论推导表明接口系统中滤波器截止频率、接口延时和阻抗模拟比对系统的稳定性影响较大,并通过所搭建的混合仿真系统进行实验,实验结果表明不同参数对系统的稳定性影响与理论推导一致。

特高压换流站抗震韧性及震后修复策略快速评估方法

地震作用下特高压换流站中设备极易损坏,然而由于资源条件限制使得震后抢修效率较低,从而导致了大量经济损失。为寻求高效的震后修复策略,该文搭建一套基于功能状态模型的抗震韧性快速评估框架。从结构和电气两方面建立换流站系统的二维功能网络模型,并利用贝叶斯网络进行功能状态快速评估。为提高系统震后修复效率,提出一种生物启发式多目标优化算法,利用震后迭代模拟得到系统阶梯型功能时变函数。通过对一典型±800 kV特高压换流站进行抗震韧性分析,得到换流站系统的关键抢修设备及最优修复策略,证明了最优修复策略的有效性和必要性。该框架量化了特高压换流站的震后修复过程及抗震韧性水平,可为换流站系统的震后应急抢修提供参考。

基于改进Knothe时间函数的地表动态移动变形预测模型研究

目的为进一步探究地表动态移动变形特征,加深认识矿山开采沉陷基本规律,更好地服务于矿山安全绿色生产,方法针对原Knothe时间函数模型表达地表下沉及其速度变化规律的缺陷,基于矿山开采过程中地表下沉盆地动态形成机理,分析时间函数参数c对地表下沉量、下沉速度和下沉加速度影响规律;以地表下沉速度达到最大值时刻,将地表动态移动变形分为两个阶段,进一步改进Knothe时间函数模型,在此基础上,建立地表动态下沉、倾斜、曲率移动变形预测模型,并以某矿2201开采工作面为例,进行地表动态移动变形预测和精度分析。结果结果表明:改进后的Knothe时间函数形态与矿山开采沉陷地表动态移动变形一致,可以较好地描述采动地表“稳定→变化→稳定”全过程动态演化特征;参数c是该函数模型的重要参数,与覆岩力学性质、开采条件和开采速度等地质采矿条件有关,对描述地表动态移动变形量较敏感,随着参数c增大,地表下沉量和下沉速度显著增大;运用改进的Knothe地表动态移动变形预测模型计算,得到的地表下沉量误差为厘米级精度,倾斜值误差在5 mm/m以内,曲率误差在0.7 mm/m2以内,其相对误差均在6.0%以内,预测结果与实测结果较吻合。结论提出的预测模型具有一定可靠性与实用性,可较准确分析地表动态移动变形全过程的规律,从而为“三下”采煤及保护煤柱留设提供参考。

基于模型评价对慢性阻塞性肺疾病大鼠造模时间的优化

目的探索结合目前采用香烟烟熏(CS)联合气道滴注脂多糖(LPS)的方法构建慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)大鼠模型的报道,探讨评价COPD大鼠模型的关键指标并优化造模时间。方法采用CS联合气道滴注LPS的方法复制COPD大鼠模型,根据香烟烟熏时长将大鼠分为:空白4周组、空白8周组、空白12周组、模型4周组、模型8周组及模型12周组。观察记录大鼠一般情况及体重变化情况;采用小动物肺功能仪检测大鼠肺功能;采用酶联免疫吸附测定检测大鼠肺泡灌洗液中炎症因子肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)和白细胞介素-6(IL-6)的表达水平。结果造模结束后,空白4周组、空白8周组和空白12周组大鼠体重分别明显高于模型4周组、模型8周组、模型12周组(P<0.05)。模型4周组大鼠病理结果显示炎症细胞浸润;模型8周组大鼠病理结果显示炎症细胞浸润,部分肺泡隔断裂,肺泡融合;模型12周组大鼠病理结果显示炎症细胞浸润,大量肺泡隔断裂,肺泡融合。模型8周组大鼠FEV0.3/FVC%较空白8周组和显著降低(P<0.05);模型12周组FEV0.1/FVC%、FEV0.3/FVC%较空白12周组大鼠显著降低(P<0.05)。空白4周组和模型4周组大鼠的0.1秒用力呼气容积(FEV0.1)/用力肺活量(FVC)、0.3秒用力呼气容积(FEV0.3)/FVC之间差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。模型4周组、8周组、12周组TNF-α和IL-6较分别较空白4周组、8周组、12周组升高(P<0.05)。结论在评价COPD大鼠模型时,肺功能是关键性指标,单一的炎症指标并非造模成功的标志。CS暴露12周联合气道滴注LPS的方法可以建立更符合临床特征的COPD大鼠模型。

基于时间函数的高寒矿区地表动态下沉规律研究

高寒地区因为其冻土的特殊性质导致其经历开采后随着季节变化易导致上覆岩层破坏,因此,为准确预测高寒地区矿区上覆岩层的动态沉降的发展趋势,选取高寒矿区地表富水区作为研究对象,基于Weibull时间函数与分段函数的思路,结合矿区地表干涉合成孔径雷达(interferometric synthetic aperture radar, InSAR)监测数据建立高寒矿区地表动态沉降模型,讨论该函数模型的适用性。结果表明:高寒矿区冻胀地表沉降的3个阶段沉降量与时间的关系曲线与Weibull时间函数模型对应曲线相符。对Weibull时间函数的双参数取值进行探讨并优化,最终确定当初始、加速阶段的沉降运动参数λ取值2.5,沉降时间参数η取值0.068,稳定阶段λ取值2.3,η取值0.048时误差处于限差范围内,能较为准确地模拟预测地表的动态沉降过程。研究成果可为高寒矿区的防灾减灾及治理工程提供参考。

板翅式换热器传递函数动态模型及参数确定方法

飞机综合环控/热管理系统迫切需要建立快捷高效的换热器动态仿真模型,以满足先进控制系统设计需求。基于此,针对板翅式换热器动态模型,提出一种包含2个延迟环节和4个一阶惯性环节的传递函数矩阵形式,并从换热器机理模型出发,利用拉普拉斯变换推导模型中4个时间常数的计算公式,提出基于换热器效率的传热热阻计算关系式的辨识方法,解决了主要模型参数设置难题。以板翅式换热器为研究对象,在Simulink仿真平台搭建其传递函数动态模型,并与AMESim仿真平台搭建的机理模型进行对比分析,结果显示:2种模型所得空气和冷却水出口温度分别随入口温度和质量流量阶跃变化的动态响应曲线吻合很好,其中,4种工况空气和冷却水出口温度最大稳态偏差分别为0.034℃和0.029℃,当冷却水入口质量流量阶跃变化时,空气出口温度动态响应相对偏差最大,为9.27%,当空气入口质量流量阶跃变化时,冷却水出口温度动态响应相对偏差最大,为7.03%。

基于Kalman滤波的实时电离层产品综合及精度分析

为了进一步研究实时全球电离层图(RT-GIM)产品在全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)实时精密定位、实时空间天气监测等领域中的应用,提出一种卡尔曼(Kalman)滤波结合球谐函数模型的实时电离层产品综合方法:对中国科学院(CAS)、武汉大学(WHU)以及国际GNSS服务组织(IGS)综合RT-GIM产品精度和可用性进行评估;并综合所评估的实时状态空间表述(SSR)数据流产品及欧洲定轨中心(CODE)电离层预报产品,分别生成实时综合产品(KRT-GIM)及预报综合产品(KPR-GIM)。实验结果表明,KRT-GIM可有效避免单一实时电离层产品数据流中断影响,与CAS RTGIM产品相比,综合后重建的垂直总电子含量(VTEC)估值精度平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别降低0.29个和0.38个总电子含量单位(TECU);与IGS RT-GIM相比,KRT-GIM在太阳活动活跃期实时单频精密单点定位的平面和高程方向定位精度分别提升13.9%和7.7%;在太阳活动平静期,KPR-GIM产品与IGS RT-GIM产品的精度较为接近,可用于实时数据流全部中断时为实时用户提供电离层产品连续服务。

ARZ交通流模型的时滞边界控制

当使用时滞控制器(即瞬时位置和时滞位置线性组合的边界反馈控制律)控制Aw-Rascle-Zhang(ARZ)交通流模型时,闭环系统的指数稳定性与控制器增益以及时滞参数的选取有较大的关系。旨在建立时滞偏微分方程系统的适定性,并定量求取参数稳定域。首先,结合时滞反馈控制策略,建立偏微分方程-偏微分方程(partial differential equation-partialdifferentialequation,PDE-PDE)耦合闭环系统。第二,采用算子半群方法将闭环系统改写为抽象发展方程的形式,进而讨论系统算子的可逆性及闭环系统的适定性。第三,构造加权严格Lyapunov函数,精确求解出闭环系统指数稳定时反馈参数及时滞值所满足的条件,求得的稳定域为抑制交通流的振荡提供了理论依据。最后,借助MATLAB数学软件进行数值模拟,仿真结果验证了时滞控制器的有效性。

基于遗传算法和分选识别需求的频段驻留时间优化设计

为有效提高信号接收系统前端截获概率并加快系统调试进度,提出了一种基于遗传算法和分选识别需求的频段驻留时间优化设计方法。该方法首先基于窗口函数模型获得前端截获概率计算公式,其次将优化频段驻留时间最大值问题抽象为约束条件下的非线性优化问题,并基于遗传算法进行迭代优化,最后结合辐射源信号正确分选和识别需求优化频段驻留时间最小值,从而得到最优频段驻留时间范围。结果表明,该优化设计方法可实现频段驻留时间范围的最优化,在提高系统前端截获概率的同时可解决现场调试费事费力问题,加快系统调试进度,适用于实际工程应用。

基于音频匹配的藏语驱动视觉语音合成算法研究

为解决唇部轮廓检测精度较低、视觉语音合成效果不好的问题,提出了基于音频匹配的藏语驱动视觉语音合成算法。该算法从藏语驱动视觉语音信号中提取短时能量和过零率,并建立语音信号的短时自相关函数。首先,提取语音信号中的特征信息,以此获得藏语语音信号的基音轨迹,即音频特征;其次,建立了唇部时空分析模型,分析唇部轮廓在发音过程中变化趋势,采用主成分分析法提取唇部轮廓特征;最后,通过输入输出隐马尔可夫模型获取音频特征与唇部轮廓特征之间的关联,在音频匹配的基础上合成藏语驱动视觉语音。实验结果表明,该方法具有较高的唇部轮廓检测精度,视觉语音合成效果较好。

基于高斯函数的中国区域时变性水汽垂直剖面模型

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