Multiple Extreme Learning Machines Based Arrival Time Prediction for Public Bus Transport

Due to fast-growing urbanization,the traffic management system becomes a crucial problem owing to the rapid growth in the number of vehicles The research proposes an Intelligent public transportation system where informa-tion regarding all the buses connecting in a city will be gathered,processed and accurate bus arrival time prediction will be presented to the user.Various linear and time-varying parameters such as distance,waiting time at stops,red signal duration at a traffic signal,traffic density,turning density,rush hours,weather conditions,number of passengers on the bus,type of day,road type,average vehi-cle speed limit,current vehicle speed affecting traffic are used for the analysis.The proposed model exploits the feasibility and applicability of ELM in the travel time forecasting area.Multiple ELMs(MELM)for explicitly training dynamic,road and trajectory information are used in the proposed approach.A large-scale dataset(historical data)obtained from Kerala State Road Transport Corporation is used for training.Simulations are carried out by using MATLAB R2021a.The experiments revealed that the efficiency of MELM is independent of the time of day and day of the week.It can manage huge volumes of data with less human intervention at greater learning speeds.It is found MELM yields prediction with accuracy in the range of 96.7%to 99.08%.The MAE value is between 0.28 to 1.74 minutes with the proposed approach.The study revealed that there could be regularity in bus usage and daily bus rides are predictable with a better degree of accuracy.The research has proved that MELM is superior for arrival time pre-dictions in terms of accuracy and error,compared with other approaches.

Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on Mixed Model

How to predict the bus arrival time accurately is a crucial problem to be solved in Internet of Vehicle. Existed methods cannot solve the problem effectively for ignoring the traffic delay jitter. In this paper,a three-stage mixed model is proposed for bus arrival time prediction. The first stage is pattern training. In this stage,the traffic delay jitter patterns(TDJP)are mined by K nearest neighbor and K-means in the historical traffic time data. The second stage is the single-step prediction,which is based on real-time adjusted Kalman filter with a modification of historical TDJP. In the third stage,as the influence of historical law is increasing in long distance prediction,we combine the single-step prediction dynamically with Markov historical transfer model to conduct the multi-step prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed single-step prediction model performs better in accuracy and efficiency than short-term traffic flow prediction and dynamic Kalman filter. The multi-step prediction provides a higher level veracity and reliability in travel time forecasting than short-term traffic flow and historical traffic pattern prediction models.

Dual-cavity beam arrival time monitor design for the Shanghai soft X-ray FEL facility

Free electron lasers provide high-power and ultrashort pulses with extreme brightness. In order to improve a facility's capabilities and explore the possibility of performing high-resolution time-resolved experiments, a beam arrival time resolution under 100 fs is required. In this article, a novel beam arrival time monitor(BAM)equipped with two cavities has been designed and a beam flight time measurement scheme based on the BAM prototype has been proposed to estimate phase jitter in the signal measurement system. The two BAM cavities work at different frequencies and the frequency difference is designed to be 35 MHz. Therefore, a self-mixing intermediate frequency signal can be generated using the two cavities. The measured beam flight time shows a temporal deviation of 37 fs(rms).

P-wave velocity structure in the crust and the uppermost mantle of Chao Lake region of the Tan-Lu Fault inferred from teleseismic arrival time tomography

Chao Lake is a Geoheritage site on the active Tan-Lu Fault between the Yangtze craton,the North China craton,and the Dabie orogenic belt in the southeast.This segment of the fault is not well constrained at depth partly due to the overprinting of the fault zone by intrusive materials and its relatively low seismic activity and sparse seismic station coverage.This study took advantage of a dense seismic array deployed around Chao Lake to delineate the P-wave velocity variations in the crust and uppermost mantle using teleseismic earthquake arrival time tomography.The station-pair double-difference with waveform crosscorrelation technique was employed.We used a multiscale resolution 3-D initial model derived from the combination of highresolution 3-D v S models within the region of interest to account for the lateral heterogeneity in the upper crust.The results revealed that the velocity of the upper crust is segmented with structures trending in the direction of the strike of the fault.Sedimentary basins are delineated on both sides of the fault with slow velocities,while the fault zone is characterized by high velocity in the crust and uppermost mantle.The high-velocity structure in the fault zone shows characteristics of magma intrusion that may be connected to the Mesozoic magmatism in and around the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt(MLYMB),implying that the Tan-Lu fault might have formed a channel for magma intrusion.Magmatic material in Chao Lake is likely connected to the partial melting,assimilation,storage,and homogenization of the uppermost mantle and the lower crustal rocks.The intrusions,however,seem to have suffered severe regional extension along the Tan-Lu fault driven by the eastward Paleo-Pacific plate subduction,thereby losing its deep trail due to extensional erosion.

Route Temporal⁃Spatial Information Based Residual Neural Networks for Bus Arrival Time Prediction

Bus arrival time prediction contributes to the quality improvement of public transport services.Passengers can arrange departure time effectively if they know the accurate bus arrival time in advance.We proposed a machine⁃learning approach,RTSI⁃ResNet,to forecast the bus arrival time at target stations.The residual neural network framework was employed to model the bus route temporal⁃spatial information.It was found that the bus travel time on a segment between two stations not only had correlation with the preceding buses,but also had common change trends with nearby downstream/upstream segments.Two features about bus travel time and headway were extracted from bus route including target section in both forward and reverse directions to constitute the route temporal⁃spatial information,which reflects the road traffic conditions comprehensively.Experiments on the bus trajectory data of route No.10 in Shenzhen public transport system demonstrated that the proposed RTSI⁃ResNet outperformed other well⁃known methods(e.g.,RNN/LSTM,SVM).Specifically,the advantage was more significant when the distance between bus and the target station was farther.

Collaborative prediction for bus arrival time based on CPS

To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.

TECHNOLOGY OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON VIBRATORY STRESS RELIEF BASED ON ULTRASONIC TIME-OF-ARRIVAL METHOD

The effect of vibratory stress relief （VSR） is usually evaluated with the indirect method of observing the change of amplitude frequency response characteristics of structures. A new kind of evaluating method of VSR based on the ultrasonic time-of-arrival method （UTM）, which can obtain the residual stress directly through measuring the propagation time of ultrasonic wave in the material, is presented. At first, the principle of the measuring method of residual stress based on UTM is analyzed. Then the measuring system of the method is described, which is in virtue of ultrasonic flaw detector and high-sampling-rate digital oscillograph. And a set of calibration system that contains a piece of standard specimen is also introduced. Experimental results prove the relation between the residual stress and the propagation time of ultrasonic in workpieces. Finally, the measuring and calibration systems are applied in evaluating the effect of VSR. The final test results show that the method is effective.

Arrival time measurements of first arrival phases P and PKIKP using the method of fixed scale wavelet transformation ratio

The arrival times of first teleseismic phases are difficult to be measured precisely because of slowly and gradually changed onsets and weak amplitudes. The arrival times measured manually are usually behind the real ones. In this paper, using the ratio method of fixed scale wavelet transformations improved by us, the arrival times for the first arrival phases (such as P and PKIKP) at the teleseismic and far-teleseismic distances were measured. The results are reasonable and reliable based on the analysis and discussion of the reliabilities and errors.

Passive Localization Using Time Difference of Arrival and Frequency Difference of ArrivalWC

In order to improve the accuracy and engineering feasibility of four-Satellite localization system, the frequency difference measurement is introduced to the four-Satellite TDOA (Time Difference of Arrival) localization algorithm. The TDOA/FDOA (Frequency Difference of Arrival) localization algorithm is used to optimize the GDOP (geometric dilution of precision) of four-Satellite localization. The simulation results show that the absolute position measurement accuracy has little influence on TDOA/FDOA localization accuracy as compared with TDOA localization. Under the same conditions, TDOA/FDOA localization has better accuracy and its GDOP shows more uniform distribution in diamond configuration case. The localization accuracy of four-Satellite TDOA/FDOA is better than the localization accuracy of four-Satellite TDOA.

Development of readout electronics for bunch arrival-time monitor system at SXFEL

A bunch arrival-time monitor(BAM) system,based on electro-optical intensity modulation scheme, is under study at Shanghai Soft X-ray Free Electron Laser.The aim of the study is to achieve high-precision time measurement for minimizing bunch fluctuations. A readout electronics is developed to fulfill the requirements of the BAM system. The readout electronics is mainly composed of a signal conditioning circuit, field-programmable gate array(FPGA), mezzanine card(FMC150), and powerful FPGA carrier board. The signal conditioning circuit converts the laser pulses into electrical pulse signals using a photodiode. Thereafter, it performs splitting and low-noise amplification to achieve the best voltage sampling performance of the dual-channel analog-to-digital converter(ADC) in FMC150. The FMC150 ADC daughter card includes a 14-bit 250 Msps dual-channel high-speed ADC,a clock configuration, and a management module. The powerful FPGA carrier board is a commercial high-performance Xilinx Kintex-7 FPGA evaluation board. To achieve clock and data alignment for ADC data capture at a high sampling rate, we used ISERDES, IDELAY, and dedicated carry-in resources in the Kintex-7 FPGA. This paper presents a detailed development of the readout electronics in the BAM system and its performance.

Backward Dijkstra Algorithms for Finding the Departure Time Based on the Specified Arrival Time for Real-Life Time-Dependent Networks

A practical transportation problem for finding the “departure” time at “all source nodes” in order to arrive at “some destination nodes” at specified time for both FIFO (i.e., First In First Out) and Non-FIFO “Dynamic ” Networks is considered in this study. Although shortest path (SP) for dynamic networks have been studied/documented by various researchers, contributions from this present work consists of a sparse matrix storage scheme for efficiently storing large scale sparse network’s connectivity, a concept of Time Delay Factor (TDF) combining with a “general piece- wise linear function” to describe the link cost as a function of time for Non-FIFO links’ costs, and Backward Dijkstra SP Algorithm with simple heuristic rules for rejecting unwanted solutions during the backward search algorithm. Both small-scale (academic) networks as well as large- scale (real-life) networks are investigated in this work to explain and validate the proposed dynamic algorithms. Numerical results obtained from this research work have indicated that the newly proposed dynamic algorithm is reliable, and efficient. Based on the numerical results, the calculated departure time at the source node(s), for a given/specified arrival time at the destination node(s), can be non-unique, for some Non-FIFO networks’ connectivity.

收发未精确同步条件下非相关多运动辐射源TOAs/FOAs协同定位方法

在联合到达时间/到达频率的无线定位体制中,除了TOAs/FOAs(Time-Of-Arrivals/Frequency-Of-Arrivals)估计误差与传感器位置/速度先验观测误差以外,收发两端的传感器时钟同步误差也是影响定位精度的重要因素.为了抑制时钟同步误差和各类观测误差的影响,本文针对非相关多运动辐射源定位场景,提出一种基于加权多维标度分析的TOAs/FOAs多辐射源协同定位方法.文中首先通过构造两组标量积矩阵推导定位关系式,然后基于一阶误差分析方法得到该关系式中的误差渐近统计特性,并进而构建联合定位与时钟同步误差校正的优化准则.针对此优化模型,本文提出一种基于正交投影矩阵数学性质的参数解耦合优化算法,可实现对多运动辐射源位置/速度参数与同步误差参数的分步估计,显著降低了参与优化迭代的变量维数.此外,文中还在收发未精确同步条件下推导TOAs/FOAs多辐射源协同定位模型的克拉美罗界,定量证明多辐射源协同定位可以带来性能增益,并且利用一阶误差分析以及正交投影矩阵数学性质证明新方法的渐近统计最优性.仿真实验结果验证所提出的协同定位方法的优越性.

On Time-of-Arrival Statistic of Gaussian Channel Model

A model of an angle-spread source, termed the “Gaussian Channel Model” is considered. The cumulative distribution function of the Time-of-Arrival of the multipath components is derived for an arbitrary angle spread. The simple approximate expressions for the Time-of-Arrival cumulative distribution function and probability density function are proposed. Numerical results obtained with the help of the derived expressions show the good coincidence with the experimental data and other known results.

RHMX:Bus Arrival Time Prediction via Mixed Model

With the widespread use of information technologies such as IoT and big data in the transportation business,traditional passenger transportation has begun to transition and upgrade into intelligent transportation,providing passengers with a better riding experience.Giving precise bus arrival times is a critical link in achieving urban intelligent transportation.As a result,a mixed model-based bus arrival time prediction model(RHMX)was suggested in this work,which could dynamically forecast bus arrival time based on the input data.First,two sub-models were created:bus station stopping time prediction and interstation running time prediction.The former predicted the stopping time of a running bus at each downstream station in an iterative manner,while the latter projected its running time on each downstream road segment(stations as the break points).Using the two models,a group of time series data on interstation running time and bus station stopping time may be predicted.Following that,the time series data from the two sub-models was fused using long short-term memory(LSTM)to generate an approximate bus arrival time.Finally,using Kalman filtering,the LSTM prediction results were dynamically updated in order to eliminate the influence of aberrant data on the anticipated value and obtain a more precise bus arrival time.The experimental findings showed that the suggested model's accuracy and stability were both improved by 35%and 17%,respectively,over AutoNavi and Baidu.

Analysis of electro-optical intensity modulator for bunch arrival-time monitor at SXFEL

A bunch arrival-time monitor(BAM) based on an electro-optical intensity modulation scheme is currently under development at Shanghai Soft X-ray Free-Electron Laser to meet the high-resolution requirements for bunch stability. The BAM uses a radio frequency signal generated by a pickup cavity to modulate the reference laser pulses in an electro-optical intensity modulator(EOM), and the bunch arrival-time information is derived from the amplitude change of the laser pulse after laser pulse modulation.EOM is a key optical component in the BAM system.Through the basic principle analysis of BAM, many parameters of the EOM are observed to affect the measurement resolution of the BAM system. Therefore, a systematic analysis of the EOM is crucial. In this paper, we present two schemes to compare and analyze an EOM and provide a reference for selecting a new version of the EOM.

基于超声TOA的环境感知

针对超声波传感器测量过程中方位角存在不确定性的问题,提出了一种基于超声反射波到达时间(Time of Arrival,TOA)的目标距离及方位角的测量方法,并据此发展了基于超声探测的环境感知方法 .基于混合高斯拟合对回波信号进行处理,消除了信号串扰问题,提高了目标距离和方位信息的测量精度.基于传感器波束角的特性,实现了不同距离下目标的同时测量.通过引入“不确定度”,构建信度分配函数,采用DSmT(Dezert-Smarandache Theory)方法进行数据融合,实现地图更新.搭建了实验装置与实验环境,并对相关方法进行了实验验证,实验结果表明,通过135次测量即可实现对环境基本轮廓的建图,建图误差在3 cm以内.

基于复域超多维标度的混合TOA/AOA定位算法

针对全球卫星导航系统信号完全拒止环境下的定位问题,使用超宽带(UWB)技术获取测量信息,基于多维标度变换算法(MDS)提出一种复域下的混合测距信息(TOA)和测角信息(AOA)的超多维标度定位算法(TASMDS),并进一步构建了复域内的核矩阵,提出复域下的超多维标度定位算法(TA-CDSMDS)。对比3种算法的定位结果,以及10°、15°、20°测角误差和不同测距误差下的定位误差,得TA-CDSMDS算法相较于TA-SMDS和MDS,有更小的定位误差,更贴近克拉美罗下界;分析不同节点下3种的计算时间,TA-CDSMDS算法在优化TA-SMDS的基础上减少28%~48%的时间,具有更好的定位性能。

Direction-of-arrival estimation based on direct data domain (D3) method

A direction-of-arrival （DOA） estimation algorithm based on direct data domain （D3） approach is presented. This method can accuracy estimate DOA using one snapshot modified data, called the temporal and spatial two-dimensional vector reconstruction （TSR） method. The key idea is to apply the D3 approach which can extract the signal of given frequency but null out other frequency signals in temporal domain. Then the spatial vector reconstruction processing is used to estimate the angle of the spatial coherent signal source based on extract signal data. Compared with the common temporal and spatial processing approach, the TSR method has a lower computational load, higher real-time performance, robustness and angular accuracy of DOA. The proposed algorithm can be directly applied to the phased array radar of coherent pulses. Simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed technique.

TOA positioning algorithm of LBL system for underwater target based on PSO

For the underwater long baseline(LBL)positioning systems,the traditional distance intersection algorithm simplifies the sound speed to a constant,and calculates the underwa-ter target position parameters with a nonlinear iteration.However,due to the complex underwater environment,the sound speed changes with time and space,and then the acoustic propagation path is actually a curve,which inevitably causes some errors to the traditional distance intersection positioning algorithm.To reduce the position error caused by the uncertain underwater sound speed,a new time of arrival(TOA)intersection underwater positioning algorithm of LBL system is proposed.Firstly,combined with the vertical layered model of the underwater sound speed,an implicit positioning model of TOA intersection is constructed through the constant gradient acoustic ray tracing.And then an optimization function based on the overall TOA residual square sum is advanced to solve the position parameters for the underwater target.Moreover,the particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is replaced with the tra-ditional nonlinear least square method to optimize the implicit positioning model of TOA intersection.Compared with the traditional distance intersection positioning model,the TOA intersec-tion positioning model is more suitable for the engineering practice and the optimization algorithm is more effective.Simulation results show that the proposed methods in this paper can effectively improve the positioning accuracy for the underwater target.

OFDM系统中一种低复杂度的TOA和DOA联合估计算法

针对正交频分复用(OFDM)系统利用求根多重信号分类(Root-MUSIC)算法进行到达时间(TOA)和波达方向(DOA)联合估计时,由于多项式求根过程中所求根为共轭对称形式存在计算冗余的问题,提出一种基于谱分解的TOA和DOA联合估计算法——SF-Root-MUSIC算法。该算法基于劳伦特多项式的结构特点,利用谱分解将求根多项式的阶次降低一半,降低了计算复杂度,完成独立的TOA和DOA估计,并通过构造代价函数进行参数配对,完成联合估计。仿真结果表明,SF-Root-MUSIC算法与Root-MUSIC算法具有相似的估计性能,且复杂度更低,在阵元数为12、子载波个数为512、快拍数为512时复杂度可降低69.94%,在保证精度的同时,以更低的复杂度实现TOA和DOA的联合估计,更适用于实时计算。