Multiple Extreme Learning Machines Based Arrival Time Prediction for Public Bus Transport

Due to fast-growing urbanization,the traffic management system becomes a crucial problem owing to the rapid growth in the number of vehicles The research proposes an Intelligent public transportation system where informa-tion regarding all the buses connecting in a city will be gathered,processed and accurate bus arrival time prediction will be presented to the user.Various linear and time-varying parameters such as distance,waiting time at stops,red signal duration at a traffic signal,traffic density,turning density,rush hours,weather conditions,number of passengers on the bus,type of day,road type,average vehi-cle speed limit,current vehicle speed affecting traffic are used for the analysis.The proposed model exploits the feasibility and applicability of ELM in the travel time forecasting area.Multiple ELMs(MELM)for explicitly training dynamic,road and trajectory information are used in the proposed approach.A large-scale dataset(historical data)obtained from Kerala State Road Transport Corporation is used for training.Simulations are carried out by using MATLAB R2021a.The experiments revealed that the efficiency of MELM is independent of the time of day and day of the week.It can manage huge volumes of data with less human intervention at greater learning speeds.It is found MELM yields prediction with accuracy in the range of 96.7%to 99.08%.The MAE value is between 0.28 to 1.74 minutes with the proposed approach.The study revealed that there could be regularity in bus usage and daily bus rides are predictable with a better degree of accuracy.The research has proved that MELM is superior for arrival time pre-dictions in terms of accuracy and error,compared with other approaches.

基于TOA的联合时延无线传感网节点定位算法

针对无线传感器网络中如何准确获取节点位置信息的问题,研究了多径传播条件下基于到达时间(Time-of-Arrival,TOA)并兼顾路径时延的目标定位问题。所提算法在高斯噪声假设基础上,首先根据时间-距离观测模型推导出包含目标位置坐标及时延的测量方程;然后基于加权最小二乘(Weighted Least Squares,WLS)准则,计算出在目标坐标估计性能上严密逼近Cramér-Rao下界(CRLB)的解;最后通过理论分析得出位置和时延的误差方差及算法开销。仿真测试了单节点及多节点场景下测距误差对定位和延时性能的影响,结果表明,所提出算法的估计性能非常接近CRLB的估计性能,明显优于两步加权最小二乘(Two Step Weighted Least Squares,TSWLS)方法。

未知传输时间下基于凸优化的稳健TOA定位

本文考虑了传输时间未知时基于到达时间(TOA)的源定位问题。首先采用加权最小二乘(WLS)准则构建了基于约束加权最小二乘(CWLS)的源定位问题,然后利用凸松弛技术,将CWLS问题松弛为一个新的拟凸分式规划(FP)问题,最终将其转化为一个等价的半定和二阶锥混合规划(SD/SOCP)问题以提供有效的求解算法。进一步通过一系列二阶锥约束和一个惩罚项来进一步收紧约束条件,从而提高估计精度。计算机仿真结果表明,新方法能够达到Cramer-Rao下界(CRLB),并且对惩罚因子的选择具有良好的鲁棒性。

面向不确定性传感器位置的一致TOA定位

目标定位是指利用传感信息估计目标在特定坐标系中的空间位置。基于到达时间(Time of Arrival,TOA)或等价的,基于距离的定位方法凭借其高精度特点得到了广泛研究。现有TOA定位方法一般假设传感器位置是精确的,只考虑距离测量噪声。而考虑了传感器位置不确定性的文献通常缺少统计学优化与分析,无法得到一致性估计。本文同时考虑距离测量噪声和传感器部署不确定性,将目标位置与传感器坐标均当成未知变量构建最大似然问题。本文首先给出关于观测噪声和传感器空间分布的假设,以保证一致性估计器的存在性。有趣的是,本文分析了最大似然估计性质,证明了其不一定具有一致性。本文进一步变换原始观测方程,构建可最优求解的优化问题。特别地,针对距离测量噪声方差已知情况,构建了含二次目标函数和一个二次等式约束的广义信赖域问题,并给出了其最优解求解算法;针对距离测量噪声方差未知情况,构建了普通线性最小二乘问题,实现目标位置和距离测量噪声方差的同时估计。本文针对两种情况分别提出了相应的偏差消除方法,实现了一致估计,即随着观测数量增加,估计值收敛至真实目标位置。一致性特性使所提算法在大样本观测场景可实现超高精度定位。此外,推导了高斯-牛顿迭代算法,可在观测样本和传感器位置不确定性较小时提高算法定位精度。仿真结果验证了所得理论结果的正确性和所提算法在大样本观测下的优越性。

收发未精确同步条件下非相关多运动辐射源TOAs/FOAs协同定位方法

在联合到达时间/到达频率的无线定位体制中,除了TOAs/FOAs(Time-Of-Arrivals/Frequency-Of-Arrivals)估计误差与传感器位置/速度先验观测误差以外,收发两端的传感器时钟同步误差也是影响定位精度的重要因素.为了抑制时钟同步误差和各类观测误差的影响,本文针对非相关多运动辐射源定位场景,提出一种基于加权多维标度分析的TOAs/FOAs多辐射源协同定位方法.文中首先通过构造两组标量积矩阵推导定位关系式,然后基于一阶误差分析方法得到该关系式中的误差渐近统计特性,并进而构建联合定位与时钟同步误差校正的优化准则.针对此优化模型,本文提出一种基于正交投影矩阵数学性质的参数解耦合优化算法,可实现对多运动辐射源位置/速度参数与同步误差参数的分步估计,显著降低了参与优化迭代的变量维数.此外,文中还在收发未精确同步条件下推导TOAs/FOAs多辐射源协同定位模型的克拉美罗界,定量证明多辐射源协同定位可以带来性能增益,并且利用一阶误差分析以及正交投影矩阵数学性质证明新方法的渐近统计最优性.仿真实验结果验证所提出的协同定位方法的优越性.

Shifted first arrival point travel time NMO inversion

Serious stretch appears in shallow long offsset signals after NMO correction. In this article we study the generation mechanism of NMO stretch, demonstrate that the conventional travel time equation cannot accurately describe the travel time of the samples within the same reflection wavelet. As a result, conventional NMO inversion based on the travel time of the wavelet＇s central point occurs with errors. In this article, a travel time equation for the samples within the same wavelet is reconstructed through our theoretical derivation （the shifted first arrival point travel time equation）, a new NMO inversion method based on the wavelet＇s first arrival point is proposed. While dealing with synthetic data, the semblance coefficient algorithm equation is modified so that wavelet first arrival points can be extracted. After that, NMO inversion based on the new velocity analysis is adopted on shot offset records. The precision of the results is significantly improved compared with the traditional method. Finally, the block move NMO correction based on the first arrival points travel times is adopted on long offset records and non-stretched results are achieved, which verify the proposed new equation.

基于超声TOA的环境感知

针对超声波传感器测量过程中方位角存在不确定性的问题,提出了一种基于超声反射波到达时间(Time of Arrival,TOA)的目标距离及方位角的测量方法,并据此发展了基于超声探测的环境感知方法 .基于混合高斯拟合对回波信号进行处理,消除了信号串扰问题,提高了目标距离和方位信息的测量精度.基于传感器波束角的特性,实现了不同距离下目标的同时测量.通过引入“不确定度”,构建信度分配函数,采用DSmT(Dezert-Smarandache Theory)方法进行数据融合,实现地图更新.搭建了实验装置与实验环境,并对相关方法进行了实验验证,实验结果表明,通过135次测量即可实现对环境基本轮廓的建图,建图误差在3 cm以内.

基于复域超多维标度的混合TOA/AOA定位算法

针对全球卫星导航系统信号完全拒止环境下的定位问题,使用超宽带(UWB)技术获取测量信息,基于多维标度变换算法(MDS)提出一种复域下的混合测距信息(TOA)和测角信息(AOA)的超多维标度定位算法(TASMDS),并进一步构建了复域内的核矩阵,提出复域下的超多维标度定位算法(TA-CDSMDS)。对比3种算法的定位结果,以及10°、15°、20°测角误差和不同测距误差下的定位误差,得TA-CDSMDS算法相较于TA-SMDS和MDS,有更小的定位误差,更贴近克拉美罗下界;分析不同节点下3种的计算时间,TA-CDSMDS算法在优化TA-SMDS的基础上减少28%~48%的时间,具有更好的定位性能。

Dual-cavity beam arrival time monitor design for the Shanghai soft X-ray FEL facility

Free electron lasers provide high-power and ultrashort pulses with extreme brightness. In order to improve a facility's capabilities and explore the possibility of performing high-resolution time-resolved experiments, a beam arrival time resolution under 100 fs is required. In this article, a novel beam arrival time monitor(BAM)equipped with two cavities has been designed and a beam flight time measurement scheme based on the BAM prototype has been proposed to estimate phase jitter in the signal measurement system. The two BAM cavities work at different frequencies and the frequency difference is designed to be 35 MHz. Therefore, a self-mixing intermediate frequency signal can be generated using the two cavities. The measured beam flight time shows a temporal deviation of 37 fs(rms).

Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on Mixed Model

How to predict the bus arrival time accurately is a crucial problem to be solved in Internet of Vehicle. Existed methods cannot solve the problem effectively for ignoring the traffic delay jitter. In this paper,a three-stage mixed model is proposed for bus arrival time prediction. The first stage is pattern training. In this stage,the traffic delay jitter patterns(TDJP)are mined by K nearest neighbor and K-means in the historical traffic time data. The second stage is the single-step prediction,which is based on real-time adjusted Kalman filter with a modification of historical TDJP. In the third stage,as the influence of historical law is increasing in long distance prediction,we combine the single-step prediction dynamically with Markov historical transfer model to conduct the multi-step prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed single-step prediction model performs better in accuracy and efficiency than short-term traffic flow prediction and dynamic Kalman filter. The multi-step prediction provides a higher level veracity and reliability in travel time forecasting than short-term traffic flow and historical traffic pattern prediction models.

Automatic pickup of arrival time of channel wave based on multi-channel constraints

Accurately detecting the arrival time of a channel wave in a coal seam is very important for in-seam seismic data processing. The arrival time greatly affects the accuracy of the channel wave inversion and the computed tomography （CT） result. However, because the signal-to-noise ratio of in-seam seismic data is reduced by the long wavelength and strong frequency dispersion, accurately timing the arrival of channel waves is extremely difficult. For this purpose, we propose a method that automatically picks up the arrival time of channel waves based on multi-channel constraints. We first estimate the Jaccard similarity coefficient of two ray paths, then apply it as a weight coefficient for stacking the multi- channel dispersion spectra. The reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in an actual data application. Most importantly, the method increases the degree of automation and the pickup precision of the channel-wave arrival time.

Collaborative prediction for bus arrival time based on CPS

To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.

OFDM系统中一种低复杂度的TOA和DOA联合估计算法

针对正交频分复用(OFDM)系统利用求根多重信号分类(Root-MUSIC)算法进行到达时间(TOA)和波达方向(DOA)联合估计时,由于多项式求根过程中所求根为共轭对称形式存在计算冗余的问题,提出一种基于谱分解的TOA和DOA联合估计算法——SF-Root-MUSIC算法。该算法基于劳伦特多项式的结构特点,利用谱分解将求根多项式的阶次降低一半,降低了计算复杂度,完成独立的TOA和DOA估计,并通过构造代价函数进行参数配对,完成联合估计。仿真结果表明,SF-Root-MUSIC算法与Root-MUSIC算法具有相似的估计性能,且复杂度更低,在阵元数为12、子载波个数为512、快拍数为512时复杂度可降低69.94%,在保证精度的同时,以更低的复杂度实现TOA和DOA的联合估计,更适用于实时计算。

Passive Localization Using Time Difference of Arrival and Frequency Difference of ArrivalWC

In order to improve the accuracy and engineering feasibility of four-Satellite localization system, the frequency difference measurement is introduced to the four-Satellite TDOA (Time Difference of Arrival) localization algorithm. The TDOA/FDOA (Frequency Difference of Arrival) localization algorithm is used to optimize the GDOP (geometric dilution of precision) of four-Satellite localization. The simulation results show that the absolute position measurement accuracy has little influence on TDOA/FDOA localization accuracy as compared with TDOA localization. Under the same conditions, TDOA/FDOA localization has better accuracy and its GDOP shows more uniform distribution in diamond configuration case. The localization accuracy of four-Satellite TDOA/FDOA is better than the localization accuracy of four-Satellite TDOA.

P-wave velocity structure in the crust and the uppermost mantle of Chao Lake region of the Tan-Lu Fault inferred from teleseismic arrival time tomography

Chao Lake is a Geoheritage site on the active Tan-Lu Fault between the Yangtze craton,the North China craton,and the Dabie orogenic belt in the southeast.This segment of the fault is not well constrained at depth partly due to the overprinting of the fault zone by intrusive materials and its relatively low seismic activity and sparse seismic station coverage.This study took advantage of a dense seismic array deployed around Chao Lake to delineate the P-wave velocity variations in the crust and uppermost mantle using teleseismic earthquake arrival time tomography.The station-pair double-difference with waveform crosscorrelation technique was employed.We used a multiscale resolution 3-D initial model derived from the combination of highresolution 3-D v S models within the region of interest to account for the lateral heterogeneity in the upper crust.The results revealed that the velocity of the upper crust is segmented with structures trending in the direction of the strike of the fault.Sedimentary basins are delineated on both sides of the fault with slow velocities,while the fault zone is characterized by high velocity in the crust and uppermost mantle.The high-velocity structure in the fault zone shows characteristics of magma intrusion that may be connected to the Mesozoic magmatism in and around the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt(MLYMB),implying that the Tan-Lu fault might have formed a channel for magma intrusion.Magmatic material in Chao Lake is likely connected to the partial melting,assimilation,storage,and homogenization of the uppermost mantle and the lower crustal rocks.The intrusions,however,seem to have suffered severe regional extension along the Tan-Lu fault driven by the eastward Paleo-Pacific plate subduction,thereby losing its deep trail due to extensional erosion.

Route Temporal⁃Spatial Information Based Residual Neural Networks for Bus Arrival Time Prediction

Bus arrival time prediction contributes to the quality improvement of public transport services.Passengers can arrange departure time effectively if they know the accurate bus arrival time in advance.We proposed a machine⁃learning approach,RTSI⁃ResNet,to forecast the bus arrival time at target stations.The residual neural network framework was employed to model the bus route temporal⁃spatial information.It was found that the bus travel time on a segment between two stations not only had correlation with the preceding buses,but also had common change trends with nearby downstream/upstream segments.Two features about bus travel time and headway were extracted from bus route including target section in both forward and reverse directions to constitute the route temporal⁃spatial information,which reflects the road traffic conditions comprehensively.Experiments on the bus trajectory data of route No.10 in Shenzhen public transport system demonstrated that the proposed RTSI⁃ResNet outperformed other well⁃known methods(e.g.,RNN/LSTM,SVM).Specifically,the advantage was more significant when the distance between bus and the target station was farther.

TECHNOLOGY OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON VIBRATORY STRESS RELIEF BASED ON ULTRASONIC TIME-OF-ARRIVAL METHOD

The effect of vibratory stress relief （VSR） is usually evaluated with the indirect method of observing the change of amplitude frequency response characteristics of structures. A new kind of evaluating method of VSR based on the ultrasonic time-of-arrival method （UTM）, which can obtain the residual stress directly through measuring the propagation time of ultrasonic wave in the material, is presented. At first, the principle of the measuring method of residual stress based on UTM is analyzed. Then the measuring system of the method is described, which is in virtue of ultrasonic flaw detector and high-sampling-rate digital oscillograph. And a set of calibration system that contains a piece of standard specimen is also introduced. Experimental results prove the relation between the residual stress and the propagation time of ultrasonic in workpieces. Finally, the measuring and calibration systems are applied in evaluating the effect of VSR. The final test results show that the method is effective.

TOA positioning algorithm of LBL system for underwater target based on PSO

For the underwater long baseline(LBL)positioning systems,the traditional distance intersection algorithm simplifies the sound speed to a constant,and calculates the underwa-ter target position parameters with a nonlinear iteration.However,due to the complex underwater environment,the sound speed changes with time and space,and then the acoustic propagation path is actually a curve,which inevitably causes some errors to the traditional distance intersection positioning algorithm.To reduce the position error caused by the uncertain underwater sound speed,a new time of arrival(TOA)intersection underwater positioning algorithm of LBL system is proposed.Firstly,combined with the vertical layered model of the underwater sound speed,an implicit positioning model of TOA intersection is constructed through the constant gradient acoustic ray tracing.And then an optimization function based on the overall TOA residual square sum is advanced to solve the position parameters for the underwater target.Moreover,the particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is replaced with the tra-ditional nonlinear least square method to optimize the implicit positioning model of TOA intersection.Compared with the traditional distance intersection positioning model,the TOA intersec-tion positioning model is more suitable for the engineering practice and the optimization algorithm is more effective.Simulation results show that the proposed methods in this paper can effectively improve the positioning accuracy for the underwater target.

Arrival time measurements of first arrival phases P and PKIKP using the method of fixed scale wavelet transformation ratio

The arrival times of first teleseismic phases are difficult to be measured precisely because of slowly and gradually changed onsets and weak amplitudes. The arrival times measured manually are usually behind the real ones. In this paper, using the ratio method of fixed scale wavelet transformations improved by us, the arrival times for the first arrival phases (such as P and PKIKP) at the teleseismic and far-teleseismic distances were measured. The results are reasonable and reliable based on the analysis and discussion of the reliabilities and errors.

Average Arrival Time:an Alternative Approach for Studying Fluorescent Behavior of Single Quantum Dotst

Due to photoluminescence intermittency of single tional exponential fluorescence lifetime analysis is colloidal quantum dots （QDs）, the tradinot perfect to characterize QDs＇ fluores- cent emission behavior. In this work we used the time-tagged time-resolved （TTTR） mode to record the fluorescent photons from single QDs. We showed that this method is compatible with the traditional lifetime analysis. In addition, by constructing the trajectory over time and the distribution of average arrival time （AAT） of the fluorescent photons, inore details about the emission behavior of QDs were revealed.