Modeling time-dependent mechanical behavior of hard rock considering excavation-induced damage and complex 3D stress states

To investigate the long-term stability of deep rocks,a three-dimensional(3D)time-dependent model that accounts for excavation-induced damage and complex stress state is developed.This model comprises three main components:a 3D viscoplastic isotropic constitutive relation that considers excavation damage and complex stress state,a quantitative relationship between critical irreversible deformation and complex stress state,and evolution characteristics of strength parameters.The proposed model is implemented in a self-developed numerical code,i.e.CASRock.The reliability of the model is validated through experiments.It is indicated that the time-dependent fracturing potential index(xTFPI)at a given time during the attenuation creep stage shows a negative correlation with the extent of excavationinduced damage.The time-dependent fracturing process of rock demonstrates a distinct interval effect of the intermediate principal stress,thereby highlighting the 3D stress-dependent characteristic of the model.Finally,the influence of excavation-induced damage and intermediate principal stress on the time-dependent fracturing characteristics of the surrounding rocks around the tunnel is discussed.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

The characterization of the time-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic of an LDPE melt using a simple thixotropy model

A new simple thixotropy model was proposed in the present paper to characterize the thixotropy-loop experiments and the start-up experiment of an LDPE （PE-FSB23D0221Q200） melt. The thixotropy model is a combination of a viscoelastic-component and a postulated kinetics process of structure change, which is constituted in terms of the indirect microstructural approach usually adopted in the characterization of thixotropy. The descriptions of the thixotropy model on both the thixotropy-loop tests and the startup test show good agreement with the experimental values, indicating the good capability of the model in characterizing the time-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic. The stress overshoot phenomenon and the stress relaxation after cessation of the thixotropy loop test can be described well by the model, whereas both of the typical viscoelastic phenomena could not be described in our previous work with a variant Huang model.

Development of a time-dependent energy model to calculate the mining-induced stress over gates and pillars

Generally, longwall mining-induced stress results from the stress relaxation due to destressed zone that occurs above the mined panel. Knowledge of induced stress is very important for accurate design of adjacent gateroads and intervening pillars which helps to raise the safety and productivity of longwall mining operations. This study presents a novel time-dependent analytical model for determination of the longwall mining-induced stress and investigates the coefficient of stress concentration over adjacent gates and pillars. The model is developed based on the strain energy balance in longwall mining incorporated to a rheological constitutive model of caved materials with time-varying parameters. The study site is the Tabas coal mine of Iran. In the proposed model, height of destressed zone above the mined panel, total longwall mining-induced stress, abutment angle, induced vertical stress, and coefficient of stress concentration over neighboring gates and intervening pillars are calculated. To evaluate the effect of proposed model parameters on the coefficient of stress concentration due to longwall mining, sensitivity analysis is performed based on the field data and experimental constants. Also, the results of the proposed model are compared with those of existing models. The comparative results confirm a good agreement between the proposed model and the in situ measurements. According to the obtained results, it is concluded that the proposed model can be successfully used to calculate the longwall mining-induced stress. Therefore, the optimum design of gate supports and pillar dimensions would be attainable which helps to increase the mining efficiency.

Time-dependent behavior comparison of long-span concrete arch bridge between prototype and model

Beipanjiang Bridge is a long-span concrete arch bridges with stiffened skeleton(CABSS)in China.It has a fixed end arch with the span of 445 m and the rise of 100 m.To evaluate the rationality of the construction sequence and the time-dependent behavior of CABSS,an experimental study of a model bridge was explored.But the measured displacement and stress ratios of arch rib between prototype and model bridge did not subject to linear similarity relation when the time-dependent behavior was considered.So,the three-dimensional finite element models were established,and verified by the measured data.Then,the displacements and stresses of the prototype and model were compared with each other,when the elastic analysis or coupling of temperature and shrinkage,creep effect was considered.Furthermore,a parametric study was studied.The results showed that when the temperature,shrinkage and creep effect of concrete are considered,the finite element analysis results of prototype and model agree well with the measured results.The displacement and stress ratios of prototype and model bridge in construction and bridge completed stage do not present the geometric similarity ratio 7.5 and 1.0,respectively.They are also much influenced by concrete predicting model and variation of temperature.

Numerical modeling of time-dependent closure of coal seam artificial fractures

In order to improve efficiency of coal seam gas drainage, many fracturing techniques, such as waterjet fracturing, hydraulic fracturing and explosive fracturing, etc, have been developed and widely used in China coal mining industry. How- ever, during the engineering applications, it is observed that the efficiency of gas drainage initially improves, but reduces there- after. Thus, it is speculated that the contrasts in coalbed methane drainage efficiency may reflect variation of the closure be- havior of the artificial fracture created. Based on comprehensive gas drainage monitoring data in underground coal mines, the work presented herein uses numerical simulation to show the behavior of the time-dependent closure of coal seam fractures as- sociated with various levels of waterjet fracturing parameters and geomechanical conditions.

Marginal Distribution Plots for Proportional Hazards Models with Time-Dependent Covariates or Time-Varying Regression Coefficients

Given a sample of regression data from (Y, Z), a new diagnostic plotting method is proposed for checking the hypothesis H0: the data are from a given Cox model with the time-dependent covariates Z. It compares two estimates of the marginal distribution FY of Y. One is an estimate of the modified expression of FY under H0, based on a consistent estimate of the parameter under H0, and based on the baseline distribution of the data. The other is the Kaplan-Meier-estimator of FY, together with its confidence band. The new plot, called the marginal distribution plot, can be viewed as a test for testing H0. The main advantage of the test over the existing residual tests is in the case that the data do not satisfy any Cox model or the Cox model is mis-specified. Then the new test is still valid, but not the residual tests and the residual tests often make type II error with a very large probability.

基于自适应AR模型巡航飞行参数预测研究

为更准确实现飞行参数趋势预测,提出一种基于自适应自回归(AR)模型的稳定巡航飞行参数预测方法。根据稳定巡航参数筛选条件,获取建模所需飞行参数。利用卡尔曼滤波原理估计AR模型参数,并与飞行参数构建系统方程,利用无迹卡尔曼滤波实时更新、修正AR模型参数估计值,将自适应AR模型的预测值与曲线拟合模型和灰色模型的预测值进行对比。以波音B777-300ER飞机的快速存取记录器数据样本进行仿真验证,结果表明:自适应AR模型在数据预测和收敛速率方面均更优,可有效降低预报模型随步数增加导致的精度误差,提高参数预测准确性。研究在飞机维修保障、状态监控与预测等方面具有重要作用。

基于D3AR的半球共形阵低空风切变风速估计方法

针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方法首先将待检测距离单元的数据从空域、时域以及空时域进行信号对消处理;然后将处理后的数据矩阵描述为空时自回归(Autoregression,AR)模型并估计模型参数;再通过构造与杂波子空间正交的空间来实现对杂波的抑制,最后通过提取待检测单元的最大多普勒频率来估计风场速度。根据仿真结果显示,该方法有效地实现了地杂波抑制,并且能够精确估计风速。

基于MS(2)-AR-TVTP模型的I_(BD)波动周期非对称性和持续性分析

国际干散货运输市场源于国际贸易的衍生需求,受世界经济的影响,是一个典型的周期性市场。选取1999年11月~2021年12月的波罗的海干散货运价指数(I_(BD))月度数据,在检验序列平稳性的基础上,确定最优滞后长度,构建两区制的时变转换概率马尔科夫转换自回归模型,分析I_(BD)波动周期的持续时间、转换拐点和非对称性等主要特征。研究结果表明:模型能有效拟合I_(BD)波动周期的主要特征,周期平均持续时间为33.7个月,自2008年9月之后呈缩短态势,上升期和下降期交互更频繁;I_(BD)波动周期具有非对称性,周期内上升期持续时间比下降期长,I_(BD)维持上升期更具有稳定性。周期性特征结果可为干散货航运业造船投资和市场经营提供决策依据。

基于AR-ECM平均差异模型的串联电池组SOC、容量多尺度联合估计方法

考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM)。基于此模型,提出串联电池组SOC、容量多尺度联合估计算法。该算法由2个部分组成,一是基于AR-ECM的MDM及差异化模型参数辨识策略:条件辨识策略和定频分组辨识策略;二是基于多时间尺度H无穷滤波(multi-timescale H infinity filter,Mts-HIF)的电池组SOC、容量联合估计算法。通过将所提出MDM中的自回归平均模型(autoregression mean model,AR-MM)与传统MDM中的n阶RC平均模型(nRC mean model,nRC-MM)比较,结果表明所提出的AR-MM在复杂运行工况下具有更优的动态跟随性能。依据最小化信息量准则(akaike information criterion,AIC),AR-MM具有更优的复杂度与精度的权衡。通过与基于多时间尺度扩展卡尔曼滤波(multi-timescale extended Kalman filter,Mts-EKF)联合状态估计算法比较,结果表明所提出的Mts-HIF状态估计算法具有更优的鲁棒性、精度和收敛速度。

Sulfate diffusion in coal pillar:experimental data and prediction model

The stability of coal pillar dams is crucial for the long-term service of underground reservoirs storing water or heat.Chemi-cal damage of coal dams induced by ions-atttacking in coal is one of the main reasons for the premature failure of coal dams.However,the diffusion process of harmful ions in coal is far from clear,limiting the reliability and durability of coal dam designs.This paper investigates sulfate diffusion in coal pillar through experimental and analytical methods.Coal specimens are prepared and exposed to sulfate solutions with different concentrations.The sulfate concentrations at different locations and time are measured.Based on experimental data and Fick's law,the time-dependent surface concentration of sulfate and diffusion coefficient are determined and formulated.Further,an analytical model for predicting sulfate diffusion in coal pillar is developed by considering dual time-dependent characteristics and Laplace transformations.Through comparisons with experimental data,the accuracy of the analytical model for predicting sulfate diffusion is verified.Further,sulfate diffusions in coal dams for different concentrations of sulfate in mine water are investigated.It has been found that the sulfate concen-tration of exposure surface and diffusion coefficient in coal are both time-dependent and increase with time.Conventional Fick's law is not able to predict the sulfate diffusion in coal pillar due to the dual time-dependent characteristics.The sulfate attacking makes the coal dam a typical heterogeneous gradient structure.For sulfate concentrations 0.01-0.20 mol/L in mine water,it takes almost 1.5 and 4 years for sulfate ions to diffuse 9.46 and 18.92 m,respectively.The experimental data and developed model provide a practical method for predicting sulfate diffusion in coal pillar,which helps the service life design of coal dams.

Numerical investigation into pillar failure induced by time-dependent skin degradation

This paper focuses on the instability mechanism of an isolated pillar, caused by time-dependent skin degradation and strength heterogeneity. The time-dependent skin degradation is simulated with a non-linear rheological model capable of simulating tertiary creep, whereby two different pillar failure cases are investigated. The first case is of an isolated pillar in a deep hard rock underground mine and subjected to high stresses. The results show that pillar degradation is limited to the regions near the surface or the skin until two months after ore extraction. Afterwards degradation starts to extend deeper into the pillar, eventually leaving a highly-stressed pillar core due to stress transfer from the failed skin.Rockburst potential indices show that the risk increases exponentially at the core as time goes by. It is then demonstrated that the progressive skin degradation cannot be simulated with conventional strain-softening model assuming brittle failure. The parametric study with respect to the degree of heterogeneity reveals that heterogeneity is key to the occurrence of progressive skin degradation. The second case investigated in this study is pillar failure taking place in a very long period. Such failure becomes significantly important when assessing the risk for ground subsidence caused by pillar collapse in an abandoned mine. The analysis results demonstrate that the employed non-linear rheological model can simulate gradual skin degradation taking place over several hundred years. The percentage of damage zone volume within the pillar is merely 1% after a lapse of one days and increases to 50% after one hundred years, indicating a high risk for pillar collapse in the long term. The vertical displacements within the pillar also indicate the risk of subsidence. The proposed method is suitable for evaluating the risk of ground surface subsidence above an abandoned mine.

Time-dependent Diffusion Coefficient and Conventional Diffusion Constant of Nanoparticles in Polymer Melts by Mode-coupling Theory

Time-dependent diffusion coefficient and conventional diffusion constant are calculated and analyzed to study diffusion of nanoparticles in polymer melts. A generalized Langevin equa- tion is adopted to describe the diffusion dynamics. Mode-coupling theory is employed to calculate the memory kernel of friction. For simplicity, only microscopic terms arising from binary collision and coupling to the solvent density fluctuation are included in the formalism. The equilibrium structural information functions of the polymer nanocomposites required by mode-coupling theory are calculated on the basis of polymer reference interaction site model with Percus-Yevick closure. The effect of nanoparticle size and that of the polymer size are clarified explicitly. The structural functions, the friction kernel, as well as the diffusion coefficient show a rich variety with varying nanoparticle radius and polymer chain length. We find that for small nanoparticles or short chain polymers, the characteristic short time non-Markov diffusion dynamics becomes more prominent, and the diffusion coefficient takes longer time to approach asymptotically the conventional diffusion constant. This constant due to the microscopic contributions will decrease with the increase of nanoparticle size, while increase with polymer size. Furthermore, our result of diffusion constant from mode- coupling theory is compared with the value predicted from the Stokes-Einstein relation. It shows that the microscopic contributions to the diffusion constant are dominant for small nanoparticles or long chain polymers. Inversely, when nanonparticle is big, or polymer chain is short, the hydrodynamic contribution might play a significant role.

Calibration of quantitative rescattering model for simulating vortex high-order harmonic generation driven by Laguerre–Gaussian beam with nonzero orbital angular momentum

We calibrate the macroscopic vortex high-order harmonic generation(HHG)obtained by the quantitative rescattering(QRS)model to compute single-atom induced dipoles against that by solving the time-dependent Schr?dinger equation(TDSE).We show that the QRS perfectly agrees with the TDSE under the favorable phase-matching condition,and the QRS can accurately predict the main features in the spatial profiles of vortex HHG if the phase-matching condition is not good.We uncover that harmonic emissions from short and long trajectories are adjusted by the phase-matching condition through the time-frequency analysis and the QRS can simulate the vortex HHG accurately only when the interference between two trajectories is absent.This work confirms that it is an efficient way to employ the QRS model in the single-atom response for precisely simulating the macroscopic vortex HHG.

基于AR-LSTM-BP的CPI组合预测模型

针对居民消费价格指数(CPI)预测准确性的问题,提出一种AR-LSTM-BP组合预测模型.首先分别用回归(AR)、长短时记忆网络(LSTM)和BP神经网络这三种模型对CPI预测,并对预测结果进行比较分析;随后引入诱导有序加权调和平均算子(IOWHA)的概念,构建AR-LSTM-BP组合预测模型.结果表明,IOWHA组合预测模型的误差均小于单项预测模型,预测结果准确性较高,能够更好地反映CPI的波动走势.

Modelling the viscoplastic behaviour of Callovo-Oxfordian claystone with consideration of damage effect

In order to evaluate the performance of deep geological disposal of radioactive waste,an underground research laboratory(URL)was constructed by Andra in the Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone formation at the Meuse/Haute-Marne(MHM).The construction of URL induced the excavation damage of host formations,and the ventilation in the galleries desaturated the host formation close to the gallery wall.Moreover,it is expected that the mechanical behaviour of COx claystone is time-dependent.This study presents a constitutive model developed to describe the viscoplastic behaviour of unsaturated and damaged COx claystone.In this model,the unsaturation effect is considered by adopting the Bishop effective stress and the van Genuchten(VG)water retention model.In terms of the viscoplastic behaviour,the nonstationary flow surface(NSFS)theory for unsaturated soils is used with consideration of the coupled effects of strain rate and suction on the yield stress.A progressive hardening law is adopted.Meanwhile,a non-associated flow rule is used,which is similar to that in Barcelona basic model(BBM).In addition,to describe the damage effect induced by suction change and viscoplastic loading,a damage function is defined based on the crack volume proportion.This damage function contains two variables:unsaturated effective stress and viscoplastic volumetric strain,with the related parameters determined based on the mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP)tests.For the model validation,different tests on COx claystone under different loading paths are simulated.Comparisons between experimental and simulated results indicated that the present model is able to well describe the viscoplastic behaviour of damaged COx claystone,including swelling/shrinkage,triaxial extension and compression,and triaxial creep.

Predicting the Time-Dependent Toxicities of Binary Mixtures of Five Antibiotics to Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67 Based on the QSAR Model

Antibiotics may be exposed in a mixed state in natural environments.The toxicity of antibiotic mixtures exhibits time-dependent characteristics,and data on the time-dependent toxicity of antibiotic mixtures is also relatively lacking.In this study,the toxicities of 45 binary mixtures composed of five antibiotics were investigated against Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67(Q67)at multiple exposure times(4,6,8,10,and 12 h).Quantitative structure–activity relationship(QSAR)models were developed for predicting the time-dependent toxicities of 45 binary mixtures.The results showed that the best QSAR models presented coefficient of determination(R2)of(0.818–0.913)and explained variance in prediction leave-one-out(Q2LOO)of(0.781–0.894)and predictive ability(Q2F1,Q2F2,Q2F3>0.682,concordance correlation coefficient>0.859).The R2 values of QSAR models outperformed the R2(0.628–0.810)of the conventional concentration addition models and the R2(0.654–0.792)of the independent action models.Furthermore,the QSAR models showed higher R2 and Q2LOO values at 4 h compared to other exposure times.Specifically,the model at the 30%effective concentration(EC30)had R2 of 0.902 and Q2LOO of 0.883,while the model at the 50%effective concentration(EC50)had R2 of 0.913 and Q2LOO of 0.894.The CATS2D_04_DP descriptor was found to be the most dominant and negatively correlated factor influencing the toxicity of mixed antibiotics against Q67 in the nine QSAR models developed over five exposure times.The reduction in the number of DP pharmacophore point pairs with a topological distance of 4 in the represented molecules is the primary cause for the rise in the time-dependent toxicity of the antibiotics against Q67.

基于时间序列AR(P)模型的边坡变形预测与应用

获取边坡的监测数据进行分析,并预测其接下来的变化趋势,具有重要的意义。本文以贵州省福泉市高坪矿区英坪矿段内边坡工程项目为研究对象,对监测数据采用时间序列AR(P)模型方法进行了分析与预测。研究结果表明,模型拟合的结果和预测精度较好地反映了监测点的变化趋势,可为矿区边坡模型建立和监测数据的预测提供一定的参考。

BIM Improved with RV and AR Technologies

The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary project, involving architecture, structures, water network and electrical system components. In order to cover in detail the various design features, the case study was limited to a specific area of a house, the sanitary rooms, as it presents sufficient complexity in modeling and the application of VR and AR software. The VR/AR functionalities applied over the BIM model increase the potential of BIM in the construction sector, contributing to the achievement of a high level of collaboration and control of the project based on an immersive and interactive environment. The elaboration of the different phases of a BIM design requires the transfer of models between BIM and VR/AR systems, allowing us to analyze the main advantages that BIM/VR/AR integration can introduce in the construction industry. The study contributes positively to achieving new knowledge in BIM, being disseminated in an academic research work and illustrated in a practical context.