Seismic fragility analysis of clay-pile-pier systems considering the optimization of ground motion intensity measures

The performance of clay-pile-pier system under earthquake shaking was comprehensively examined via three-dimensional finite element analyses,in which the complex stress-strain relationships of a clay and piled pier system were depicted by a hyperbolic-hysteretic and an equivalent elastoplastic model,respectively.One hundred twenty ground motions with varying peak accelerations were considered,along with the variations in bridge superstructure mass and pile flexural rigidity.Comprehensive comparison studies suggested that peak pile-cap acceleration and peak pile-cap velocity are the optimal ground motion intensity measures for seismic responses of the pier and the pile,respectively.Furthermore,based on two optimal ground motion intensity measures and using curvature ductility to quantify different damage states,seismic fragility analyses were performed.The pier generally had no evident damage except when the bridge girder mass was equal to 960 t,which seemed to be comparatively insensitive to the varying pile flexural rigidity.In comparison,the pile was found to be more vulnerable to seismic damage and its failure probabilities tended to clearly reduce with the increment of pile flexural rigidity,while the influence of the bridge girder mass was relatively minor.

Comparison of seismic fragility analysis methods for arch dams

This study focuses on the seismic fragility analysis of arch dams.The multiple stripe analysis(MSA),cloud analysis(CLA),and incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)methods are compared.A comprehensive dam-reservoir-foundation rock system,which considers the opening of contraction joints,the nonlinearity of dam concrete and foundation rock,the radiation damping effect of semi-unbounded foundation,and the compressibility of reservoir water,is used as a numerical example.225,80,and 15 earthquake records are selected for MSA,CLA,and IDA,respectively.The results show that MSA provides satisfactory fragility analysis,while both CLA and IDA have assumptions that may lead to deviations.Therefore,MSA is the most reliable method among the three methods and is recommended for the fragility analysis of arch dams.It is also shown that the choice of demand level affects the reliability of fragility curves and the effect of the material uncertainty on the fragility of the dam is not significant.

Earthquake Fragility Assessment of the Underground Tunnel Using an Efficient SSI Analysis Approach

This paper represents a simplified seismic fragility analysis approach of the underground tunnel structure in consideration of the soil-structure interaction (SSI) effect. SSI effect founds to be essential in the estimation of dynamic analysis of underground structures like tunnels and thus needs to be considered. The ground response acceleration method for buried structures (GRAMBS) known to be a very efficient quasi-static method that can consider SSI effect is used in the proposed approach to evaluate seismic structural responses without sacrificing much accuracy. Seismic fragility curves are then developed by applying the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) to responses of a large set of artificial ground motion time histories generated for multiple different levels of earthquake intensity. It is also assumed in this paper that the seismic fragility curve can be represented by a two-parameter lognormal distribution function with median and log-standard deviation that need to be defined using MLE.

Probabilistic fragility analysis:A tool for assessing design rules of RC buildings

In this work, fragility analysis is performed to assess two groups of reinforced concrete structures. The first group of structures is composed of buildings that implement three common design practices; namely, fully infilled, weak ground story and short columns. The three design practices are applied during the design process of a reinforced concrete building. The structures of the second group vary according to the value of the behavioral factors used to define the seismic forces as specified in design procedures. Most seismic design codes belong to the class of prescriptive procedures where if certain constraints are fulfilled, the structure is considered safe. Prescriptive design procedures express the ability of the structure to absorb energy through inelastic deformation using the behavior factor. The basic objective of this work is to assess both groups of structures with reference to the limit-state probability of exceedance. Thus, four limit state fragility curves are developed on the basis of nonlinear static analysis for both groups of structures. Moreover, the 95% confidence intervals of the fragility curves are also calculated, taking into account two types of random variables that influence structural capacity and seismic demand.

Machine Learning-Based Seismic Fragility Analysis of Large-Scale Steel Buckling Restrained Brace Frames

Steel frames equipped with buckling restrained braces(BRBs)have been increasingly applied in earthquake-prone areas given their excellent capacity for resisting lateral forces.Therefore,special attention has been paid to the seismic risk assessment(SRA)of such structures,e.g.,seismic fragility analysis.Conventional approaches,e.g.,nonlinear finite element simulation(NFES),are computationally inefficient for SRA analysis particularly for large-scale steel BRB frame structures.In this study,amachine learning(ML)-based seismic fragility analysis framework is established to effectively assess the risk to structures under seismic loading conditions.An optimal artificial neural network model can be trained using calculated damage and intensity measures,a technique which will be used to compute the fragility curves of a steel BRB frame instead of employing NFES.Numerical results show that a highly efficient instantaneous failure probability assessment can be made with the proposed framework for realistic large-scale building structures.

Economic Growth and Agro-environmental Fragility——Based on the Provincial Panel Data Analysis

The agro-environmental fragility of 31 provinces and regions (except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) of our country during the years 1978-2004 is measured by adopting the method of principal component analysis.With the support of analytical model of panel data,regressive analysis is achieved from the aspects of introducing regional differences,not introducing regional differences,existing industrial differences and not existing industrial differences respectively.The conclusion points out that there are both industrial and regional differences in the economic growth effect on the environmental fragility;these differences are reflected on the industrial or regional development levels.The higher the development level it is,the less the effect it is when the economic growth effect on the environmental fragility is negative,the more when the effect is positive,and it will change from being negative to positive when on the critical point;and vice versa.

Seismic fragility analysis of bridges by relevance vector machine based demand prediction model

A relevance vector machine(RVM)based demand prediction model is explored for efficient seismic fragility analysis(SFA)of a bridge structure.The proposed RVM model integrates both record-to-record variations of ground motions and uncertainties of parameters characterizing the bridge model.For efficient fragility computation,ground motion intensity is included as an added dimension to the demand prediction model.To incorporate different sources of uncertainty,random realizations of different structural parameters are generated using Latin hypercube sampling technique.Mean fragility,along with its dispersions,is estimated based on the log-normal fragility model for different critical components of a bridge.The effectiveness of the proposed RVM model-based SFA of a bridge structure is elucidated numerically by comparing it with fragility results obtained by the commonly used SFA approaches,while considering the most accurate direct Monte Carlo simulation-based fragility estimates as the benchmark.The proposed RVM model provides a more accurate estimate of fragility than conventional approaches,with significantly less computational effort.In addition,the proposed model provides a measure of uncertainty in fragility estimates by constructing confidence intervals for the fragility curves.

Estimation of Aleatory Randomness by S_(a)(T_(1))-Based Intensity Measures in Fragility Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Frame Structures

Based on the multiple stripes analysis method,an investigation of the estimation of aleatory randomness by S_(a)(T_(1))-based intensity measures(IMs)in the fragility analysis is carried out for two typical low-and mediumrise reinforced concrete(RC)frame structures with 4 and 8 stories,respectively.The sensitivity of the aleatory randomness estimated in fragility curves to various S_(a)(T_(1))-based IMs is analyzed at three damage limit states,i.e.,immediate occupancy,life safety,and collapse prevention.In addition,the effect of characterization methods of bidirectional ground motion intensity on the record-to-record variability is investigated.It is found that the damage limit state of the structure has an important influence on the applicability of the ground motion IM.The S_(a)(T_(1))-based IMs,considering the effect of softened period,can maintain lower record-to-record variability in the three limit states,and the S_(a)(T_(1))-based IMs,considering the effect of higher modes,do not show their advantage over S_(a)(T_(1)).Furthermore,the optimal multiplier C and exponentαin the dual-parameter ground motion IM are proposed to obtain a lower record-to-record variability in the fragility analysis of different damage limit state.Finally,the improved dual-parameter ground motion IM is applied in the risk assessment of the 8-story frame structure.

Fragility curves of concrete bridges retrofitted by column jacketing

The Northridge earthquake inflicted various levels of damage upon a large number of Caltrans' bridges not retrofitted by column jacketing.In this respect,this study represents results of fragility curve development for two (2) sample bridges typical in southern California,strengthened for seismic retrofit by means of steel jacketing of bridge columns.Monte Carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic responses of the bridges before and after column retrofit.Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA.The sixty (60) ground acceleration time histories for the Los Angeles area developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) SAC (SEAOC-ATC CUREe) steel project are used for the dynamic analysis of the bridges. The improvement in the fragility with steel jacketing is quantified by comparing fragility curves of the bridge before and after column retrofit.In this first attempt to formulate the problem of fragility enhancement,the quantification is made by comparing the median values of the fragility curves before and after the retrofit.Under the hypothesis that this quantification also applies to empirical fragility curves developed on the basis of Northridge earthquake damage,the enhanced version of the empirical curves is developed for the ensuing analysis to determine the enhancement of transportation network performance due to the retrofit.

Long-term deformation analysis of Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam based on response surface method and improved genetic algorithm

Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained from laboratory triaxial tests often underestimate the deformation of high rockfill dams.Therefore, constitutive model parameters obtained by back analysis were used to calculate and predict the long-term deformation of rockfill dams.Instead of using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the response surface method (RSM) was employed to replace the finite element simulation used in the optimization iteration.Only 27 training samples were required for RSM, improving computational efficiency compared with ANN, which required 300 training samples.RSM can be used to describe the relationship between the constitutive model parameters and dam settlements.The inversion results of the Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) show that the calculated settlements agree with the measured data, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of RSM.

Development of seismic fragility curves for low-rise masonry infilled reinforced concrete buildings by a coefficient-based method

This study presents a seismic fragility analysis and ultimate spectral displacement assessment of regular low-rise masonry infilled （MI） reinforced concrete （RC） buildings using a coefficient-based method. The coefficient-based method does not require a complicated finite element analysis; instead, it is a simplifed procedure for assessing the spectral acceleration and displacement of buildings subjected to earthquakes. A regression analysis was first performed to obtain the best-fitting equations for the inter-story drift ratio （IDR） and period shift factor of low-rise MI RC buildings in response to the peak ground acceleration of earthquakes using published results obtained from shaking table tests. Both spectral acceleration- and spectral displacement-based fragility curves under various damage states （in terms of IDR） were then constructed using the coefficient-based method. Finally, the spectral displacements of low-rise MI RC buildings at the ultimate （or near- collapse） state obtained from this paper and the literature were compared. The simulation results indicate that the fragility curves obtained from this study and other previous work correspond well. Furthermore, most of the spectral displacements of low-rise MI RC buildings at the ultimate state from the literature fall within the bounded spectral displacements predicted by the coefficient-based method.

Spectral and fragility evaluations of retrofitted structures through strength reduction and enhanced damping

A retrofit procedure for existing buildings called the ＂weakening and damping technique＂ （WED） is presented in this paper. Weakening of structures can limit the maximum response accelerations during severe ground motions, but leads to an increase in the displacements or inter-story drifts. Added damping by using viscous dampers, on the other hand, reduces the inter-story drifts and has no significant effect on total accelerations, when structures behave inelastically. The weakening and damping technique addresses the two main causes for both structural and nonstructural damage in structures. The weakening retrofit is particularly suitable for structures that have overstressed components and weak brittle components. In this paper, the advantages of the WeD are verified by nonlinear dynamic analysis and simplified spectral approach that has been modified to fit structures with additional damping devices. A hospital structure located in the San Fernando Valley in California is selected as a case study. The results from both analyses show that the retrofit solution is feasible to reduce both structural acceleration and displacement. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the retrofitting method using different combinations of performance thresholds in accelerations and displacements through fragility analysis.

Prediction of land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Hanoi, Vietnam, using multifactorial correlation analysis

Multifactorial correlation analysis is a new method used to predict the land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation This article introduces and applies the method to establish the function of the surface settlement rate （Vs） and the function of the time-dependent surface settlement （St） caused by groundwater exploitation, based on data acquired at three land subsidence monitoring stations in the Hanoi area of Vietnam. Comparison with actual monitoring data indicates that the prediction results are relatively close to the monitoring data. From this, we conclude that multifactorial correlation analysis is a reliable method and can be used to predict future land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Hanoi.

Assessing the seismic behavior of steel moment frames equipped by elliptical brace through incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)

Incremental dynamic analysis and nonlinear static pushover analysis are carried out on a performance-based design to determine the seismic demands and capacities of an elliptic braced moment resisting frame(ELBRF).The objective is to assess ductility,overstrength and response modification factors in a modern steel-braced structural system based on incremental dynamic analysis.This integrated system is connected to a beam and column with an appropriate length while providing enough architectural space to allow for an opening without having the common problems associated with architectural spaces in braced systems.Several different classes of buildings are considered on soil type II.Linear dynamic analysis,nonlinear static pushover analysis and incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis related to 12 records from past earthquakes are carried out using OpenSees software.The factors of ductility,overstrength and response modification are calculated for this system.The values of 9.5 and 6.5 are found and suggested only for the response modification factor for ELBRF systems in allowable stress and ultimate limit state methods,respectively.The fragility curves are plotted for the first time for this type of bracing,which contributes to the assessment of building seismic damage.

Seismic fragility reduction of an unreinforced masonry school building through retrofit using ferrocement overlay

The Himalayan region is one of the major seismic areas in the world.However,similar to many other seismically active locations,there are substantial numbers of unreinforced masonry(URM)buildings;the majority of which have not been designed for seismic loads.Past seismic events have shown that such buildings are highly vulnerable to earthquakes.Retrofitting of these URM buildings is an important concern in earthquake mitigation programs.Most government school buildings in rural areas of northern India are constructed of unreinforced masonry.These school buildings are socially important structures and serve as a crucial resource for rehabilitation during any disaster.The effectiveness of ferrocement(FC)to create a URM-FC composite is described in this study by estimating the performance and fragility of a URM school building before and after a retrofit.Analytical models,based on the equivalent frame method,are developed and used for nonlinear static analysis to estimate the enhancement in capacity.The capacity enhancement due to retrofitting is presented in terms of the maximum PGA sustained and damage probabilities at the expected level of earthquake hazard.

Seismic fragility assessment of low-rise stone masonry buildings

Many historic buildings in old urban centers in Eastern Canada are made of stone masonry reputed to be highly vulnerable to seismic loads.Seismic risk assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first step in the risk mitigation process to provide adequate planning for retrofit and preservation of historical urban centers.This paper focuses on development of analytical displacement-based fragility curves reflecting the characteristics of existing stone masonry buildings in Eastern Canada.The old historic center of Quebec City has been selected as a typical study area.The standard fragility analysis combines the inelastic spectral displacement,a structure-dependent earthquake intensity measure,and the building damage state correlated to the induced building displacement.The proposed procedure consists of a three-step development process：（1） mechanics-based capacity model,（2） displacement-based damage model and（3） seismic demand model.The damage estimation for a uniform hazard scenario of 2% in 50 years probability of exceedance indicates that slight to moderate damage is the most probable damage experienced by these stone masonry buildings.Comparison is also made with fragility curves implicit in the seismic risk assessment tools Hazus and ELER.Hazus shows the highest probability of the occurrence of no to slight damage,whereas the highest probability of extensive and complete damage is predicted with ELER.This comparison shows the importance of the development of fragility curves specific to the generic construction characteristics in the study area and emphasizes the need for critical use of regional risk assessment tools and generated results.

Development of seismic fragility curves for precast concrete frames with cast-in-situ concrete shear-walls

Precast reinforced concrete buildings have been well received in some seismic zones worldwide due to advantages such as the ease and the speed of implementation,and the possibility of working in inappropriate atmospheric conditions.In this research,seismic fragility curves were developed for precast concrete frames with a cast-in-situ concrete shear-wall,concerning the important issues of modeling the precast beam-column joints,construction quality,and soil type effects.For this purpose,the incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)was conducted for three-dimensional models of 3-,5-,and 8-story buildings under two record sets corresponding to soil types C and D of the NEHRP code.Beam-column joints were modeled using nonlinear rotational springs with rigid links with respect to the finite size of the joint panel.Results demonstrate that the Weibull distribution can be fitted to the damage state capacities better than the lognormal distribution at the intensities that are more than one standard deviation away from the median damage capacity.The seismic vulnerability of precast structures increases at all damage states as the height of the building increases.It is also observed that soil type has almost no considerable effect on the fragility curve parameters for all damage states considered herein.

Kriging-based reliability analysis of the long-term stability of a deep driftconstructed in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone

Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone has been considered as a potential host rock for geological radioactive waste disposal in France(Cigéo project).During the exploitation phase(100 years),the stability of drifts(e.g.galleries/alveoli)within the disposal is assured by the liner,which includes two layers:concrete arch segment and compressible material.The latter exhibits a significant deformation capacity(about 50%)under low stress(<3 MPa).Although the response of these underground structures can be governed by complex thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling,the creep behavior of COx claystone has been considered as the main factor controlling the increase of stress state in the concrete liner and hence the long-term stability of drifts.Therefore,by focusing only on the purely mechanical behavior,this study aims at investigating the uncertainty effect of the COx claystone time-dependent properties on the stability of an alveolus of Cigéo during the exploitation period.To describe the creep behavior of COx claystone,we use Lemaitre’s viscoplastic model with three parameters whose uncertainties are identified from laboratory creep tests.For the reliability analysis,an extension of a well-known Kriging metamodeling technique is proposed to assess the exceedance probability of acceptable stress in the concrete liner of the alveolus.The open-source code Code_Aster is chosen for the direct numerical evaluations of the performance function.The Kriging-based reliability analysis elucidates the effect of the uncertainty of COx claystone on the long-term stability of the concrete liner.Moreover,the role of the compressible material layer between the concrete liner and the host rock is also highlighted.

Comparison of Cox proportional hazards model,Cox proportional hazards with time-varying coefficients model,and lognormal accelerated failure time model:Application in time to event analysis of melioidosis patients

Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.

Expansion of Linear Analysis of Rayleigh-Taylor Interface Instability of Metal Materials

The linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material is extended from the perfect plastic constitutive model to the Johnson-Cook and Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model, and from the constant loading to a time-dependent loading. The analysis is applied to two Rayleigh-Taylor instability experiments in aluminum and vanadium with peak pressures of 20 GPa and 90 GPa, and strain rates of 6 × 106 s&minus;1 and 3 × 107 s&minus;1 respectively. When the time-dependent loading and the Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model are used in the linear analysis, the analytic results are in close agreement with experiments quantitatively, which indicates that the method in this paper is applicable to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in aluminum and vanadium metal materials under high pressure and high strain rate. From these linear analyses, we find that the constitutive models and the loading process are of crucial importance in the linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material, and a better understanding of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metals is gained. These results will serve as important references for evolving high-pressure, high-strain-rate experiments and numerical simulations.