Coseismic deformation and fault slip distribution of the 2023 M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 earthquakes in Türkiye

On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later.To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture,this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system(GNSS)network.A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE,36 km from the epicenter,and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the M_(W)7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1,5 km from the epicenter.The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint.The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground,resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault.The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m,and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km.In the Cardak fault region,the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km,with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars,and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Thus,it is likely that the M_(W)7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Based on the cumulative stress impact of the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 events,the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault,specifically the Amanos fault segment,experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars,warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.

Distribution characteristics of historical earthquake classes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region

According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively safe class and comparatively dangerous class. Then the statistical result of earthquake class, the characteristics of geo-graphical distribution and geological structures are studied. The study shows: a) In Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the majority of historical strong earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class, only 13.8% belong to comparatively dangerous class; b) Most historical earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class in the land area of Jiangsu, eastern sea area of Yangtze River mouth and northern depression of South Huanghai Sea region. However, along the coast of middle Jiangsu Province and in the sea area of South Huanghai Sea, the distribution of historical earthquake classes is complex and the earthquake series of comparatively dan-gerous class and comparatively safe class are equivalent in number; c) In the studied area, the statistical results of historical earthquake classes and the characteristics of spatial distribution accord very well with the real case of present-day earthquake series. It shows that the seismic activity in the region has the characteristic of succession, and the result from this study can be used as a reference for early postseismic judgment in the earthquake emer-gency work in Jiangsu Province.

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M ≥ 6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.

Distribution of empirical recurrence intervals for segment-rupturing earthquakes onactive faults of the Chinese mainland

For the two main recurrence behaviors of segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland,this paper establishes corresponding empirical distributions forearthquake recurrence interval. The results show that, for the time-predictable recurrence, the normalized recurrence interval, T/Tt, obeys very well the lognormal distributions: LN (μ1=0.00, σ21 =0. 152), where, T is an observed recurrence interval, and Tt is the average recurrence interval that is correlative with the size of the preceding event. For the quasi-periodic recurrence, the normalized recurrence interval, T/T, follows the lognormal distribution : LN(μq=0.00, σ2q=0.242), where, T is the median of recurrence intervals for various cycles. A statistical test suggests that, there is no significant difference between the latter distribution, built by this paper, and the recurrence interval distribution for the characteristic earthquakes of the Circum-Pacific Plate boundaries (NB model). Accordingly, this paper combines these two distributions into one and obtains a more stable lognormal distribution :LN (μ = 0.00, σ2 = 0.222), for the quasi-periodic recurrence interval.

Spatial distribution analysis of landslides triggered by the 2013-04-20 Lushan earthquake,China

The 2013-04-20 Lushan earthquake（seismic magnitude Ms 7.0 according to the State Seismological Bureau）induced a large number of landslides.In this study,spatial characteristics of landslides are developed by interpreting digital aerial photography data.Seven towns near the epicenter,with an area of about 11.11 km2,were severely affected by the earthquake,and 703 landslides were identified from April 24,2013 aerial photography data over an area of 1.185 km2.About 55.56% of the landslide area was less than 1000 m2,whereas about 3.23 % was more than 10,000 m2.Rock falls and shallow landslides were the most commonly observed types in the study area,and were primarily located in the center of Lushan County.Most landslide areas were widely distributed near river channels and along roads.Five main factors were chosen to study the distribution characteristics of landslides：elevation,slope gradients,fault,geologic unit and river system.The spatial distribution of coseismal landslides is studied statistically using both landslide point density（LPD）,defined as the number of landslides（LS Number）per square kilometer,and landslide area density（LAD）,interpreted as the percentage of landslides area affected by earthquake.The results show that both LPD and LAD have strong positive correlations with five main factors.Most landslides occurred in the gradient range of 40°-50° and an elevation range of 1.0-1.5 km above sea level.Statistical results also indicate that landslides were mainly formed in soft rocks such as mudstone and sandstone,and concentrated in IX intensity areas.

Distribution and characteristics of gravelly soil liquefaction in the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 earthquake

In this paper,a distribution map of gravelly soil liquefaction that was caused by the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in China is proposed based on a detailed field investigation and an analysis of geological soil profiles. The geological background of the earthquake disaster region is summarized by compiling geological cross sections and borehole logs. Meanwhile,four typical liquefied sites were selected to conduct sample drillings,dynamic penetration tests (DPT),and shear wave velocity tests,to understand the features of liquefied gravelly soil. One hundred and eighteen (118) liquefied sites were investigated shortly after the earthquake. The field investigation showed:(1) sandboils and waterspouts occurred extensively,involving thousands of miles of farmland,120 villages,eight schools and five factories,which caused damage to some rural houses,schools,manufacturing facilities and wells,etc.; (2) the Chengdu plain is covered by a gravelly soil layer with a thickness of 0 m to 541 m according to the geological cross sections; (3) there were 80 gravelly soil liquefied sites in the Chengdu plain,shaped as five belt areas that varied from 20 km to 40 km in length,and about ten gravelly soil liquefied sites distributed within Mianyang area; and (4) the grain sizes of the sampled soil were relative larger than the ejected soil on the ground,thus the type of liquefied soil cannot be determined by the ejected soil. The gravelly soil liquefied sites are helpful in enriching the global database of gravelly soil liquefaction and developing a corresponding evaluation method in further research efforts.

Spatial Distribution of Large-scale Landslides Induced by the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake

The 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 induced hundreds of large-scale landslides. This paper systematically analyzes 112 large-scale landslides (surface area > 50000 m2), which were identified by interpretation of remote sensing imagery and field investigations. The analysis suggests that the distribution of large-scale landslides is affected by the following four factors: (a) distance effect: 80% of studied large-scale landslides are located within a distance of 5 km from the seismic faults. The farther the distance to the faults, the lower the number of large-scale landslides; (b) locked segment effect: the large-scale landslides are mainly located in five concentration zones closely related with the crossing, staggering and transfer sections between one seismic fault section and the next one, as well as the end of the NE fault section. The zone with the highest concentration was the Hongbai-Chaping segment, where a great number of large-scale landslides including the two largest landslides were located. The second highest concentration of large-scale landslides was observed in the Nanba-Donghekou segment at the end of NE fault, where the Donghekou landslide and the Woqian landslide occurred; (c) Hanging wall effect: about 70% of the large-scale landslides occurred on the hanging wall of the seismic faults; and (d) direction effect: in valleys perpendicular to the seismic faults, the density of large-scale landslides on the slopes facing the seismic wave is obviously higher than that on the slopes dipping in the same direction as the direction of propagation of the seismic wave. Meanwhile, it is found that the sliding and moving directions of large-scale landslides are related to the staggering direction of the faults in each section. In Qingchuan County where the main fault activity was horizontal twisting and staggering, a considerable number of landslides showed the feature of sliding and moving in NE direction which coincides with the staggering direction of the seismic faults.

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.

Spatial distribution features of sequence types of moderate and strong earthquake in Chinese mainland

Based on 294 earthquake sequences with magnitude greater than or equal to 5.0 occurred in Chinese mainland since 1970, the spatial distribution features of sequence types have been studied. In southwestern China, it takes mainshock-aftershock sequence type （MAT） as the major in Chuan-Dian rhombic block and concerned Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang seismic belt, as well as in Jinshajiang-Honghe seismic belt. Multiple mainshock type （MMT） mainly distributes in western Yunnan, and Longlin and Lancang areas in Tengchong-Baoshan block in west of Nujiang-Lancangjiang fault zone. A few isolated earthquake type （IET） mainly occurred in northwestern Sichuan and there is no IET occurred in Yunnan region. In northwestern China, it takes mainshock-aftershock sequence type （MAT） as the major in west segment of South Tianshan in Xinjiang region. Some MMT also occurred in this area in the intersection of Kalpin block and the Puchang fault zone. It takes IET as the major in middle Tianshan in Xinjiang. Along the Qilianshan seismic belt, most of sequences are MAT. In Qinghai region, it takes MAT as the major, but the regional feature of the spatial distribution of sequence types is not very clear. In North China, it takes MAT as the major in Yinshan-Yanshan-Bohai seismic belt, north edge of North China, and in Hebei plain seismic belt, as well as in sub-plate of lower river area of Yangtze River. In intersection of north segment of Shanxi seismic belt and the NW-trending Yinshan-Yanshan-Bohai seismic belt, there are several moderate or strong MMT with magnitude from 5.0 to 6.0 occurred. In south of North China around the latitude line of 35°N, it takes IET as the major. The spatial distribution of sequence types is relevant to the patterns of tectonic movements. MAT is mostly produced by the ruptures of locked units or asperities or the neonatal separating segments inside the fault zones. MMT is generally relevant to the conjugate structures or intersection of many tectonic settings. Further extension of simple fault often produces IET. Spatial distribution of sequence types is also correlative to the regional and deep environment of crustal medium to some extent. MAT mainly distributes in high velocity area in upper crust or in the transition zone between high velocity area and low velocity area, MMT mostly occurred in the low velocity area in upper crust.

Temporal distribution characteristics of GNSS ionospheric occultation data and its effects in earthquake-ionosphere anomaly detection

The temporal distribution characteristics of COSMIC occultation data are analyzed in detail, and the limitations in earthquake-ionosphere anomaly detection caused by the temporal distribution characteristics of COSMIC occultation data are discussed using the example of the Wenchuan earthquake. The results demonstrate that there is no fixed temporal resolution for COSMIC occultation data when compared with other ionospheric observation techniques. Therefore, occultation data cannot currently be independently utilized in research studies but can only be used as a complement to other ionospheric observation techniques for applications with high temporal resolution demands, such as earthquake-ionosphere anomaly detection.

Spatial Distribution of Seismic Landslides in the Areas of 1927 Gulang M8.0 Earthquake

The 1927 Gulang M8.0 earthquake has triggered a huge number of landslides,resulting in massive loss of people’s life and property.However,integrated investigations and results regarding the landslides triggered by this earthquake are rare;such situation hinders the deep understanding of these landslides such as scale,extent,and distribution.With the support of Google Earth software,this study intends to finish the seismic landslides interpretation work in the areas of Gulang earthquake(VIII-XI degree)using the artificial visual interpretation method,and further analyze the spatial distribution and impact factors of these landslides.The results show that the earthquake has triggered at least 936 landslides in the VIII-XI degree zone,with a total landslide area of 58.6 km^2.The dense area of seismic landslides is located in the middle and southern parts of the X intensity circle.Statistical analysis shows that seismic landslides is mainly controlled by factors such as elevation,slope gradient,slope direction,strata,seismic intensity,faults and rivers.The elevation of 2000-2800 m is the high-incidence interval of the landslide.The landslide density is larger with a higher slope gradient.East and west directions are the dominant sliding directions.The areas with Cretaceous and Quaternary strata are the main areas of the Gulang seismic landslides.The X intensity zone triggered the most landslides.In addition,landslides often occur in regions near rivers and faults.This paper provides a scientific reference for exploring the development regularities of landslides triggered by the 1927 Gulang earthquake and effectively mitigating the landslide disasters of the earthquake.

Multiplicity of solutions to geophysical inversion reflected by rupture slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal earthquake

The equivalence of geophysical fields, the finiteness of measurements and the measurement errors make the result of geophysical inversion non-unique. For example, the measurements and inversion method used, the priori rupture model determined and the slip distribution smoothing factor selected will have significant influences on the earthquake rupture slip distribution. Using different data and methods, different authors have given different rupture slip distribution models of the 2015 Mw7.9 Nepal earth- quake, with the maximum slip ranging from 3.0 m to 6.8 m. In this paper, geometry parameters of the single rectangular fault model in elastic half-space were inferred constraining with the Global Posi- tioning System （GPS） and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （InSAR） coseismic deformations and bounding the slip with approximate average value; and then, the single rectangular fault was divided into multiple sub-faults, and the final slip smoothing factor, the final slip distribution and the maximum slip were determined with the misfit-roughness tradeoff curve, the cross-validation sum of squares （CVSS） and the third-party observation data or indexes being comprehensively taken into account. The results show that, the rupture of the Nepal earthquake extended by over 100 km east by south. The maximum slip of the earthquake was about 6.5-6.7 m, and most of the slip is confined at depths of 8 -20 kin, consistent with the depth distribution of aftershocks. The method for reducing the multiplicity of solutions to rupture slip distribution in this paper was ever used in inversion of rupture slip distri- bution for the 2008 Wenchuan and 2013 Lushan earthquakes, and the third-party measurement - surface dislocation has very large effect on reducing the multiplicity of solutions to inversion of the Wenchuan earthquake. Other priori information or indicators, such as fault strike, dip, earthquake magnitude, seismic activity, Coulomb stress, and seismic period, can be used for beneficial validation of and comparison with inversion results.

Distribution patterns of landslides triggered by the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake,Sichuan,China

At 12:52 pm on September 5,2022,an Ms 6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County,Sichuan Province,China.Based on high-resolution aerial photographs and satellite imageries obtained after the earthquake,as well as field investigation,a total of 8685 earthquake-triggered landslides(EQTLs)were interpreted.The landslides covered an area of 30.7km^(2),with a source area of 9.4 km^(2).These EQTLs were mainly distributed in areas with a seismic intensity of VIII and IX.Most of the landslides were small and medium in size,and their types included landslide,rockfall,and rock slump.Characteristic landslide distributions were found,EQTLs were distributed along the Xianshuihe fault,landslide area decreased gradually with an increased distance to the fault;EQTLs were distributed along the Daduhe River and roads;besides,landslide distribution was associated with ground deformation caused by the earthquake.EQTLs’characteristics indicated that,a large number of EQTLs were located near the foot of the slope;the full area of EQTLs and their source area followed a power function.This study concluded that Luding EQTLs were greater in number and area but relatively smaller in terms of affected area.Investigations on geo-hazards post-earthquake and risk assessment were proposed in the earthquake-stricken area to support the rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Coseismic slip distribution of 2009 L'Aquila earthquake derived from InSAR and GPS data

To better understand the mechanism of the Mw6.3 L＇Aquila （Central Italy） earthquake occurred in 2009, global positioning system （GPS） and interferometric synthetic aperture radar （InSAR） data were used to derive the coseismic slip distribution of the earthquake fault. Firstly, based on the homogeneous elastic half-space model, the fault geometric parameters were solved by the genetic algorithm. The best fitting model shows that the fault is a 13.7 km×14.1 km rectangular fault, in 139.3° strike direction and 50.2° southwest-dipping. Secondly, fixing the optimal fault geometric parameters, the fault plane was extended and discretized into 16× 16 patches, each with a size of 1 kmx 1 krn, and the non-uniform slip distribution of the fault was inverted by the steepest descent method with an appropriate smoothing ratio based on the layered crustal structure model. The preferred solution shows that the fault is mainly a normal fault with slight right-lateral strike slip, the maximum slip of 1.01 m is located in the depth of 8.28 km, the average rake is -100.9°, and the total geodetic moment is about 3.34× 1018 N.m （Mw 6.28）. The results are much closer than previous studies in comparison with the seismological estimation. These demonstrate that the coseismic fault slip distribution of the L＇Aauila earthauake inverted by the crustal model considering layered characters is reliable.

The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

The geography information system of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studied. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage dis-tribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

Size and spatial distribution of landslides induced by the2015 Gorkha earthquake in the Bhote Koshi river watershed

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal on April 25, 2015, produced thousands of landslides in the Himalayan mountain range. After the earthquake, two field investigations along Araniko Highway were conducted. Then, using remote sensing technology and geographic information system(GIS)technology, 1481 landslides were identified along the Bhote Koshi river. Correlations between the spatial distribution of landslides with slope gradient and lithology were analyzed. The power-law relationship of the size distribution of earthquake-induced landslides was examined in both the Higher Himalaya and Lesser Himalaya. Possible reasons for the variability of the power exponent were explored by examining differences in the geological situations of these areas. Multi-threshold cellular automata were introduced to model the complexity of system components. Most of the landslides occurred at slope gradients of 30°–40°, and the landslide density was positively correlated with slope gradient. Landslides in hard rock areas were more common than in soft rock areas. The cumulative number-area distribution of landslides induced by the Gorkha earthquake exhibited a negative power-law relationship, but the power exponents were different: 1.13 in the Higher Himalaya, 1.36 and Lesser Himalaya. Furthermore,the geological conditions were more complex and varied in the Lesser Himalaya than in the Higher Himalaya, and the cellular automata simulation results indicated that, as the complexity of system components increased, the power exponent increased.Therefore, the variability of the power exponent of landslide size distribution should ascribe to the complexity of geological situations in the Bhote Koshi river watershed.

Co-seismic fault geometry and slip distribution of the 26 December 2004, giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake constrained by GPS, coral reef, and remote sensing data

We analyze co-seismic displacement field of the 26 December 2004, giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake derived from Global Position System observations,geological vertical measurement of coral head, and pivot line observed through remote sensing. Using the co-seismic displacement field and AK135 spherical layered Earth model, we invert co-seismic slip distribution along the seismic fault. We also search the best fault geometry model to fit the observed data. Assuming that the dip angle linearly increases in downward direction, the postfit residual variation of the inversed geometry model with dip angles linearly changing along fault strike are plotted. The geometry model with local minimum misfits is the one with dip angle linearly increasing along strike from 4.3oin top southernmost patch to 4.5oin top northernmost path and dip angle linearly increased. By using the fault shape and geodetic co-seismic data, we estimate the slip distribution on the curved fault. Our result shows that the earthquake ruptured ＊200-km width down to a depth of about 60 km.0.5–12.5 m of thrust slip is resolved with the largest slip centered around the central section of the rupture zone78N–108N in latitude. The estimated seismic moment is8.2 9 1022 N m, which is larger than estimation from the centroid moment magnitude（4.0 9 1022 N m）, and smaller than estimation from normal-mode oscillation data modeling（1.0 9 1023 N m）.

Complex Seismic Focus Structure and Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Distribution:Analysis of the 2014 Ludian M_w6.1 Earthquake in Yunnan

Objective The 2014 Ludian Mw6.1 earthquake in Yunnan occurred in a mountainous area with complex tectonics and topography, which caused serious damage as well as co-seismic landslides of an unusual large scale. Because the suspected seismogenic faults on the surface, distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism solutions are not consistent, it remains difficult to determine what is the real causal fault or seismogenic structure for this event. Actually, it may imply the complicity of the seismic source at depth. In addition, the distribution of the co- seismic landslides also exhibits some diffusion that is different from general eases, likely associated with the seismic focus structure.

Geographical distribution of hypocentral depths of Chinese earthquakes

The hypocentral depths of more than 200 Chinese earthquakes, of magnitudes from M 8.6 to M 3.0, are calculated from macroseismic data carried on earthquake catalogs, by using the formula for macroseismic hypocentral depths and the formula for general solution of macroseismic hypocentral depths. The results are plotted on maps to show their geographical distribution. It can be seen that most Chinese earthquakes are shollow ones. Of the 200 earthquakes calculated, 162(81.0%) hypocenters are shallower than 9 km, of which 111 (55.5%) hypocenters are shallower than 5 km. Such shallow earthquakes are mostly distributed in the provinces near to the North South Earthquake Belt, while the rest are scattered in the other provinces(except Zhejiang province). Earthquakes of medium(between 10 and 20 km) depth are relatively few (32 in number, 15.0%); they are distributed along the North South Earthquake Belt, and the western part of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and in provinces Shaanxi, Shanxi and Shandong (along the Tanlu Fracture Zone, crossing the sea to northeast China). Deep earthquakes are rare, being scattered in south Yunnan and the east end of Inner Mongolia Uygur Autonomous Region.

Distribution characteristics of historical earthquake classes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region

According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively safe class and comparatively dangerous class. Then the statistical result of earthquake class, the characteristics of geo-graphical distribution and geological structures are studied. The study shows: a) In Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the majority of historical strong earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class, only 13.8% belong to comparatively dangerous class; b) Most historical earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class in the land area of Jiangsu, eastern sea area of Yangtze River mouth and northern depression of South Huanghai Sea region. However, along the coast of middle Jiangsu Province and in the sea area of South Huanghai Sea, the distribution of historical earthquake classes is complex and the earthquake series of comparatively dan-gerous class and comparatively safe class are equivalent in number; c) In the studied area, the statistical results of historical earthquake classes and the characteristics of spatial distribution accord very well with the real case of present-day earthquake series. It shows that the seismic activity in the region has the characteristic of succession, and the result from this study can be used as a reference for early postseismic judgment in the earthquake emer-gency work in Jiangsu Province.