A Measure for Assessing Functions of Time-Varying Effects in Survival Analysis

A standard approach for analyses of survival data is the Cox proportional hazards model. It assumes that covariate effects are constant over time, i.e. that the hazards are proportional. With longer follow-up times, though, the effect of a variable often gets weaker and the proportional hazards (PH) assumption is violated. In the last years, several approaches have been proposed to detect and model such time-varying effects. However, comparison and evaluation of the various approaches is difficult. A suitable measure is needed that quantifies the difference between time-varying effects and enables judgement about which method is best, i.e. which estimate is closest to the true effect. In this paper we adapt a measure proposed for the area between smoothed curves of exposure to time-varying effects. This measure is based on the weighted area between curves of time-varying effects relative to the area under a reference function that represents the true effect. We introduce several weighting schemes and demonstrate the application and performance of this new measure in a real-life data set and a simulation study.

Novel Methodologies for Preventing Crack Propagation in Steel Gas Pipelines Considering the Temperature Effect

Using the software ANSYS-19.2/Explicit Dynamics,this study performedfinite-element modeling of the large-diameter steel pipeline cross-section for the Beineu-Bozoy-Shymkent gas pipeline with a non-through straight crack,strengthened by steel wire wrapping.The effects of the thread tensile force of the steel winding in the form of single rings at the crack edges and the wires with different winding diameters and pitches were also studied.The results showed that the strengthening was preferably executed at a minimum value of the thread tensile force,which was 6.4%more effective than that at its maximum value.The analysis of the influence of the winding dia-meters showed that the equivalent stresses increased by 32%from the beginning of the crack growth until the wire broke.The increment in winding diameter decelerated the disclosure of the edge crack and reduced its length by 8.2%.The analysis of the influence of the winding pitch showed that decreasing the distance between the winding turns also led to a 33.6%reduction in the length of the straight crack and a 7.9%reduction in the maximum stres-ses on the strengthened pipeline cross-section.The analysis of the temperature effect on the pipeline material,within a range from-40℃ to+50℃,resulted in a crack length change of up to 5.8%.As the temperature dropped,the crack length decreased.Within such a temperature range,the maximum stresses were observed along the cen-tral area of the crack,which were equal to 413 MPa at+50℃ and 440 MPa at-40℃.The results also showed that the presence of the steel winding in the pipeline significantly reduced the length of crack propagation up to 8.4 times,depending on the temperature effect and design parameters of prestressing.This work integrated the existing methods for crack localization along steel gas pipelines.

Observed displacement data-based identification method of deformation time-varying effect of high concrete dams

The long-term safety of high concrete dams has become the focus and central issues of public attention. Deformation is an actual comprehensive reflection of concrete dams. Especially the deformation time-varying effect, is a key index for evaluating the structural behavior, health status, and their evolution of a concrete dam in long-term service. In this paper, causing factors of the deformation time-varying effect of concrete dams were analyzed, and the time-varying effect was divided into two parts, which are the inherent time-varying effect and the time-varying effect caused by the change of dam structural performance. Then, based on the observed dam displacement and the wavelet multi-resolution analysis, causal models for identifying the later deformation time-varying effect and the identification process were proposed. Finally, the efficiency and rationality of the proposed method were verified by two actual concrete dams with runoff reservoir and regulatory reservoir.

Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.

Effect analysis of friction and damping on anti-backlash gear based on dynamics model with time-varying mesh stiffness

A nonlinear model of anti-backlash gear with time-varying friction and mesh stiffness was proposed for the further study on dynamic characteristics of anti-backlash gear. In order to improve the model precision, applied force analysis was completed in detail, and single or double tooth meshing states of two gear pairs at any timing were determined according to the meshing characteristic of anti-backlash gear. The influences of friction and variations of damping ratio on dynamic transmission error were analyzed finally by numerical calculation and the results show that anti-backlash gear can increase the composite mesh stiffness comparing with the mesh stiffness of the normal gear pair. At the pitch points where the frictions change their signs, additional impulsive effects are observed. The width of impulsive in the same value of center frequency is wider than that without friction, and the amplitude is lower. When gear pairs mesh in and out, damping can reduce the vibration and impact.

240 nm AlGaN-based deep ultraviolet micro-LEDs:size effect versus edge effect

240 nm AlGaN-based micro-LEDs with different sizes are designed and fabricated.Then,the external quantum efficiency(EQE)and light extraction efficiency(LEE)are systematically investigated by comparing size and edge effects.Here,it is revealed that the peak optical output power increases by 81.83%with the size shrinking from 50.0 to 25.0μm.Thereinto,the LEE increases by 26.21%and the LEE enhancement mainly comes from the sidewall light extraction.Most notably,transversemagnetic(TM)mode light intensifies faster as the size shrinks due to the tilted mesa side-wall and Al reflector design.However,when it turns to 12.5μm sized micro-LEDs,the output power is lower than 25.0μm sized ones.The underlying mechanism is that even though protected by SiO2 passivation,the edge effect which leads to current leakage and Shockley-Read-Hall(SRH)recombination deteriorates rapidly with the size further shrinking.Moreover,the ratio of the p-contact area to mesa area is much lower,which deteriorates the p-type current spreading at the mesa edge.These findings show a role of thumb for the design of high efficiency micro-LEDs with wavelength below 250 nm,which will pave the way for wide applications of deep ultraviolet(DUV)micro-LEDs.

Finite-time Prescribed Performance Time-Varying Formation Control for Second-Order Multi-Agent Systems With Non-Strict Feedback Based on a Neural Network Observer

This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.

Evaluation of the intracellular lipid-lowering effect of polyphenols extract from highland barley in HepG2 cells

Active ingredients from highland barley have received considerable attention as natural products for developing treatments and dietary supplements against obesity.In practical application,the research of food combinations is more significant than a specific food component.This study investigated the lipid-lowering effect of highland barley polyphenols via lipase assay in vitro and HepG2 cells induced by oleic acid(OA).Five indexes,triglyceride(TG),total cholesterol(T-CHO),low density lipoprotein-cholesterol(LDL-C),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),and alanine aminotransferase(ALT),were used to evaluate the lipidlowering effect of highland barley extract.We also preliminary studied the lipid-lowering mechanism by Realtime fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction(q PCR).The results indicated that highland barley extract contains many components with lipid-lowering effects,such as hyperoside and scoparone.In vitro,the lipase assay showed an 18.4%lipase inhibition rate when the additive contents of highland barley extract were 100μg/m L.The intracellular lipid-lowering effect of highland barley extract was examined using 0.25 mmol/L OA-induced HepG2 cells.The results showed that intracellular TG,LDL-C,and T-CHO content decreased by 34.4%,51.2%,and 18.4%,respectively.ALT and AST decreased by 51.6%and 20.7%compared with the untreated hyperlipidemic HepG2 cells.q PCR results showed that highland barley polyphenols could up-regulation the expression of lipid metabolism-related genes such as PPARγand Fabp4.

Engineering Strategies for Suppressing the Shuttle Effect in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

Lithium–sulfur(Li–S)batteries are supposed to be one of the most potential next-generation batteries owing to their high theoretical capacity and low cost.Nevertheless,the shuttle effect of firm multi-step two-electron reaction between sulfur and lithium in liquid electrolyte makes the capacity much smaller than the theoretical value.Many methods were proposed for inhibiting the shuttle effect of polysulfide,improving corresponding redox kinetics and enhancing the integral performance of Li–S batteries.Here,we will comprehensively and systematically summarize the strategies for inhibiting the shuttle effect from all components of Li–S batteries.First,the electrochemical principles/mechanism and origin of the shuttle effect are described in detail.Moreover,the efficient strategies,including boosting the sulfur conversion rate of sulfur,confining sulfur or lithium polysulfides(LPS)within cathode host,confining LPS in the shield layer,and preventing LPS from contacting the anode,will be discussed to suppress the shuttle effect.Then,recent advances in inhibition of shuttle effect in cathode,electrolyte,separator,and anode with the aforementioned strategies have been summarized to direct the further design of efficient materials for Li–S batteries.Finally,we present prospects for inhibition of the LPS shuttle and potential development directions in Li–S batteries.

Numerical and experimental studies on the effectiveness of time-varying electromagnetic fields in reducing electron density

When an aircraft or a hypersonic vehicle re-enters the atmosphere,the plasma sheath generated can severely attenuate electromagnetic wave signals,causing the problem of communication blackout.A new method based on time-varying E×B fields is proposed to improve on the existing static E×B fields and mitigate the radio blackout problem.The use of the existing method is limited by the invalid electron density reduction resulting from current density j=0 A m^(-2)in plasma beyond the Debye radius.The most remarkable feature is the introduction of a time-varying electric field to increase the current density in the plasma to overcome the Debye shielding effect on static electric field.Meanwhile,a magnetic field with the same frequency and phase as the electric field is applied to ensure that the electromagnetic force is always acting on the plasma in one direction.In order to investigate the effect of time-varying E×B fields on the plasma electron density distribution,two directions of voltage application are considered in numerical simulation.The simulation results indicate that different voltage application methods generate electromagnetic forces in different directions in the plasma,resulting in repulsion and vortex effects in the plasma.A comparison of the vortex effect and repulsion effect reveals that the vortex effect is better at reducing the electron density.The local plasma electron density can be reduced by more than 80%through the vortex effect,and the dimensions of the area of reduced electron density reach approximately 6 cm×4 cm,meeting the requirements of electromagnetic wave propagation.Besides,the vortex effect of reducing the electron density in RAM-C(radio attenuation measurements for the study of communication blackout)reentry at an altitude of 40 km is analyzed.On the basis of the simulation results,an experiment based on a rectangular-window discharge device is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the vortex effect.Experimental results show that time-varying E×B fields can reduce the electron density in plasma of 3 cm thickness by 80%at B=0.07 T and U_(0)=1000 V.The investigations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of reducing the required strength of the magnetic field and overcoming the Debye shielding effect.Additionally,the method is expected to provide a new way to apply a magnetic window in engineering applications.

Experimental study on the effect of water absorption level on rockburst occurrence of sandstone

To investigate the mechanism of rockburst prevention by spraying water onto the surrounding rocks,15 experiments are performed considering different water absorption levels on a single face.High-speed photography and acoustic emission(AE)system are used to monitor the rockburst process.The effect of water on sandstone rockburst and the prevention mechanism of water on sandstone rockburst are analyzed from the perspective of energy and failure mode.The results show that the higher the ab-sorption degree,the lower the intensity of the rockburst after absorbing water on single side of sand-stone.This is reflected in the fact that with the increase in the water absorption level,the ejection velocity of rockburst fragments is smaller,the depth of the rockburst pit is shallower,and the AE energy is smaller.Under the water absorption level of 100%,the magnitude of rockburst intensity changes from medium to slight.The prevention mechanism of water on sandstone rockburst is that water reduces the capacity of sandstone to store strain energy and accelerates the expansion of shear cracks,which is not conducive to the occurrence of plate cracking before rockburst,and destroys the conditions for rockburst incubation.

High responsivity photodetectors based on graphene/WSe_(2) heterostructure by photogating effect

Graphene, with its zero-bandgap electronic structure, is a highly promising ultra-broadband light absorbing material.However, the performance of graphene-based photodetectors is limited by weak absorption efficiency and rapid recombination of photoexcited carriers, leading to poor photodetection performance. Here, inspired by the photogating effect, we demonstrated a highly sensitive photodetector based on graphene/WSe_(2) vertical heterostructure where the WSe_(2) layer acts as both the light absorption layer and the localized grating layer. The graphene conductive channel is induced to produce more carriers by capacitive coupling. Due to the strong light absorption and high external quantum efficiency of multilayer WSe_(2), as well as the high carrier mobility of graphene, a high photocurrent is generated in the vertical heterostructure. As a result, the photodetector exhibits ultra-high responsivity of 3.85×10~4A/W and external quantum efficiency of 1.3 × 10~7%.This finding demonstrates that photogating structures can effectively enhance the sensitivity of graphene-based photodetectors and may have great potential applications in future optoelectronic devices.

“Buckets effect”in the kinetics of electrocatalytic reactions

In this study,we systematically investigated the effect of proton concentration on the kinetics of the oxygen reduction reaction(ORR)on Pt(111)in acidic solutions.Experimental results demonstrate a rectangular hyperbolic relationship,i.e.,the ORR current excluding the effect of other variables increases with proton concentration and then tends to a constant value.We consider that this is caused by the limitation of ORR kinetics by the trace oxygen concentration in the solution,which determines the upper limit of ORR kinetics.A model of effective concentration is further proposed for rectangular hyperbolic relationships:when the reactant concentration is high enough to reach a critical saturation concentration,the effective reactant concentration will become a constant value.This could be due to the limited concentration of a certain reactant for reactions involving more than one reactant or the limited number of active sites available on the catalyst.Our study provides new insights into the kinetics of electrocatalytic reactions,and it is important for the proper evaluation of catalyst activity and the study of structureperformance relationships.

Cumulative effects of excess high-normal alanine aminotransferase levels in relation to new-onset metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease in China

BACKGROUND Within the normal range,elevated alanine aminotransferase(ALT)levels are associated with an increased risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD).AIM To investigate the associations between repeated high-normal ALT measurements and the risk of new-onset MAFLD prospectively.METHODS A cohort of 3553 participants followed for four consecutive health examinations over 4 years was selected.The incidence rate,cumulative times,and equally and unequally weighted cumulative effects of excess high-normal ALT levels(ehALT)were measured.Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyse the association between the cumulative effects of ehALT and the risk of new-onset MAFLD.RESULTS A total of 83.13%of participants with MAFLD had normal ALT levels.The incidence rate of MAFLD showed a linear increasing trend in the cumulative ehALT group.Compared with those in the low-normal ALT group,the multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of the equally and unequally weighted cumulative effects of ehALT were 1.651[95%confidence interval(CI):1.199-2.273]and 1.535(95%CI:1.119-2.106)in the third quartile and 1.616(95%CI:1.162-2.246)and 1.580(95%CI:1.155-2.162)in the fourth quartile,respectively.CONCLUSION Most participants with MAFLD had normal ALT levels.Long-term high-normal ALT levels were associated with a cumulative increased risk of new-onset MAFLD.

Impact of effective stress on permeability for carbonate fractured-vuggy rocks

To gain insight into the flow mechanisms and stress sensitivity for fractured-vuggy reservoirs,several core models with different structural characteristics were designed and fabricated to investigate the impact of effective stress on permeability for carbonate fractured-vuggy rocks(CFVR).It shows that the permeability performance curves under different pore and confining pressures(i.e.altered stress conditions)for the fractured core models and the vuggy core models have similar change patterns.The ranges of permeability variation are significantly wider at high pore pressures,indicating that permeability reduction is the most significant during the early stage of development for fractured-vuggy reservoirs.Since each obtained effective stress coefficient for permeability(ESCP)varies with the changes in confining pressure and pore pressure,the effective stresses for permeability of four representative CFVR show obvious nonlinear characteristics,and the variation ranges of ESCP are all between 0 and 1.Meanwhile,a comprehensive ESCP mathematical model considering triple media,including matrix pores,fractures,and dissolved vugs,was proposed.It is proved theoretically that the ESCP of CFVR generally varies between 0 and 1.Additionally,the regression results showed that the power model ranked highest among the four empirical models mainly applied in stress sensitivity characterization,followed by the logarithmic model,exponential model,and binomial model.The concept of“permeability decline rate”was introduced to better evaluate the stress sensitivity performance for CFVR,in which the one-fracture rock is the strongest,followed by the fracture-vug rock and two-horizontalfracture rock;the through-hole rock is the weakest.In general,this study provides a theoretical basis to guide the design of development and adjustment programs for carbonate fractured-vuggy reservoirs.

Carbon Emission Effects Driven by Evolution of Chinese Dietary Structure from 1987 to 2020

Exploring carbon emission effects based on the evolution of residents’ dietary structure to achieve the carbon neutrality goal and mitigate climate change is an important task.This study took China as the research object(data excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) and used the carbon emission coefficient method to quantitatively measure the food carbon emissions from 1987–2020,then analyzed the carbon emission effects under the evolution of dietary structure.The results showed that during the study period,the Chinese dietary structure gradually changed to a high-carbon consumption pattern.The dietary structure of urban residents developed to a balanced one,while that of rural residents developed to a high-quality one.During the study period,the per capita food carbon emissions and total food consumption of Chinese showed an increasing trend.The per capita food carbon emissions of residents in urban and rural showed an overall upward trend.The total food carbon emissions in urban increased significantly,while that in rural increased first and then decreased.The influence of beef and mutton on carbon emissions is the highest in dietary structure.Compared with the balanced dietary pattern,the food carbon emissions of Chinese residents had not yet reached the peak,but were evolving to a high-carbon consumption pattern.

Rockburst criterion and evaluation method for potential rockburst pit depth considering excavation damage effect

Excavation-induced disturbances in deep tunnels will lead to deterioration of rock properties and formation of excavation damaged zone(EDZ).This excavation damage effect may affect the potential rockburst pit depth.Taking two diversion tunnels of Jinping II hydropower station for example,the relationship between rockburst pit depth and excavation damage effect is first surveyed.The results indicate that the rockburst pit depth in tunnels with severe damage to rock masses is relatively large.Subsequently,the excavation-induced damage effect is characterized by disturbance factor D based on the Hoek-Brown criterion and wave velocity method.It is found that the EDZ could be further divided into a high-damage zone(HDZ)with D=1 and weak-damage zone(WDZ),and D decays from one to zero linearly.For this,a quantitative evaluation method for potential rockburst pit depth is established by presenting a three-element rockburst criterion considering rock strength,geostress and disturbance factor.The evaluation results obtained by this method match well with actual observations.In addition,the weakening of rock mass strength promotes the formation and expansion of potential rockburst pits.The potential rockburst pit depth is positively correlated with HDZ and WDZ depths,and the HDZ depth has a significant contribution to the potential rockburst pit depth.

Electrode/Electrolyte Interfacial Chemistry Modulated by Chelating Effect for High-Performance Zinc Anode

Although Zn metal has been regarded as the most promising anode for aqueous batteries,its practical application is still restricted by side reactions and dendrite growth.Herein,an in-situ solid electrolyte interphase(SEI)film formed on the interface of electrode/electrolyte during the plating/stripping of zinc anodes by introducing trace amounts of multidentate ligand sodium diethyldithiocarbamate(DDTC)additive into 1 M ZnSO_(4).The synergistic effect of in-situ solid electrolyte interphase forming and chelate effect endows Zn^(2+)with uniform and rapid interface-diffusion kinetics against dendrite growth and surface side reactions.As a result,the Zn anode in 1 M ZnSO_(4)+DDTC electrolytes displays an ultra-high coulombic efficiency of 99.5%and cycling stability(more than 2000 h),especially at high current density(more than 600 cycles at 40 mA cm^(-2)).Moreover,the Zn//MnO_(2)full cells in the ZnSO_(4)+DDTC electrolyte exhibit outstanding cyclic stability(with 98.6%capacity retention after 2000 cycles at 10 C).This electrode/electrolyte interfacial chemistry modulated strategy provides new insight into enhancing zinc anode stability for high-performance aqueous zinc batteries.

Review on synergistic damage effect of irradiation and corrosion on reactor structural alloys

The synergistic damage effect of irradiation and corrosion of reactor structural materials has been a prominent research focus.This paper provides a comprehensive review of the synergistic effects on the third-and fourth-generation fission nuclear energy structural materials used in pressurized water reactors and molten salt reactors.The competitive mechanisms of multiple influencing factors,such as the irradiation dose,corrosion type,and environmental temperature,are summarized in this paper.Conceptual approaches are proposed to alleviate the synergistic damage caused by irradiation and corrosion,thereby promoting in-depth research in the future and solving this key challenge for the structural materials used in reactors.

Simulation of the Ecosystem Productivity Responses to Aerosol Diffuse Radiation Fertilization Effects over the Pan-Arctic during 2001–19

The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.