On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

基于主客观环流分型的强降水数值预报MODE检验方法及其在2019年暖季东北地区的应用

本文构建了基于主客观环流分型的强降水数值预报空间检验(MODE)方法框架,并利用该框架对欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(ECMWF)和中国气象局区域中尺度数值天气预报模式(CMA_MESO)的2019年暖季东北地区强降水预报进行检验。结果表明,2019年暖季东北地区54个强降水日的环流型可分为:西风槽型(15个)、副热带高压影响型(13个)、急流型(5个)、西部(12个)和东部冷涡型(9个)。其中,西风槽型和急流型以区域性强降水为主,模式对其强降水发生与否的预报能力强,TS评分较高;西部、东部冷涡型强降水的局地性强,模式对其强降水发生与否的预报能力差,TS评分低;副热带高压影响型也以区域性强降水为主,模式对其强降水发生与否的预报能力也比较强,但是对其强降水质心位置、强度、面积等属性预报偏差较大,TS评分也相对较低。另外,从两种模式预报性能对比看,CMA_MESO强降水强度和面积预报较实况普遍偏强,虽然其预报的TS评分一般高于ECMWF,但其对强降水预报的空报率也都比ECMWF大,对强降水的属性预报偏差一致性一般也低于ECMWF,其预报的可订正性整体上不及ECMWF。

一种基于粗糙熵的改进K-modes聚类算法

K-modes聚类算法被广泛应用于人工智能、数据挖掘等领域。传统的K-modes聚类算法有不错的聚类效果,但是存在迭代次数多、计算量大、容易受到冗余属性的干扰等问题,且仅采用简单的0-1匹配的方法来定义2个样本属性值之间的距离,没有充分考虑每个属性对聚类结果的影响。针对上述问题,该文将粗糙熵引入K-modes算法。首先利用粗糙集属性约简算法消除冗余属性,确定各属性的重要程度;然后利用粗糙熵确定每个属性的权重,从而定义新的类内距离。将该文所提算法与传统的K-modes聚类算法分别在4组公开数据集上进行对比试验。试验结果表明,该文所提算法聚类准确率比传统的K-modes聚类算法更高。

Analytical Modeling and Mechanism Analysis of Time-Varying Excitation for Surface Defects in Rolling Element Bearings

Surface defects,including dents,spalls,and cracks,for rolling element bearings are the most common faults in rotating machinery.The accurate model for the time-varying excitation is the basis for the vibration mechanism analysis and fault feature extraction.However,in conventional investigations,this issue is not well and fully addressed from the perspective of theoretical analysis and physical derivation.In this study,an improved analytical model for time-varying displacement excitations(TVDEs)caused by surface defects is theoretically formulated.First and foremost,the physical mechanism for the effect of defect sizes on the physical process of rolling element-defect interaction is revealed.According to the physical interaction mechanism between the rolling element and different types of defects,the relationship between time-varying displacement pulse and defect sizes is further analytically derived.With the obtained time-varying displacement pulse,the dynamic model for the deep groove bearings considering the internal excitation caused by the surface defect is established.The nonlinear vibration responses and fault features induced by surface defects are analyzed using the proposed TVDE model.The results suggest that the presence of surface defects may result in the occurrence of the dual-impulse phenomenon,which can serve as indexes for surface-defect fault diagnosis.

Time-varying gravity field model of Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the equivalent mass source model

High-precision time-varying gravity field is an effective way to study the internal mass movement and understanding the spatio-temporal evolution process of the geodynamic system.Compared to the satellite gravity measurement,the repeated terrestrial gravity observation can provide a more high-order signal related to the shallow crust and subsurface.However,the suitable and unified method for gravity model estimation is a key problem for further applications.In this study,we introduce the spherical hexahedron element to simulate the field source mass and forward model the change of gravity field located at the Sichuan-Yunnan region(99—104°E,23—29°N)in the four epochs from 2015 to 2017.Compared to the experimental results based on Slepian or spherical harmonics frequency domain method,this alternative approach is suitable for constructing the equivalent mass source model of regional-scale gravity data,by introducing the first-order smooth prior condition of gravity time-varying signal to suppress the high-frequency component of the signal.The results can provide a higher spatial resolution reference for regional gravity field modeling in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.

Partial Time-Varying Coefficient Regression and Autoregressive Mixed Model

Regression and autoregressive mixed models are classical models used to analyze the relationship between time series response variable and other covariates. The coefficients in traditional regression and autoregressive mixed models are constants. However, for complicated data, the coefficients of covariates may change with time. In this article, we propose a kind of partial time-varying coefficient regression and autoregressive mixed model and obtain the local weighted least-square estimators of coefficient functions by the local polynomial technique. The asymptotic normality properties of estimators are derived under regularity conditions, and simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators. Finally, we use real data about Lake Shasta inflow to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

Partial Time-Varying Coefficient Regression and Autoregressive Mixed Model

Regression and autoregressive mixed models are classical models used to analyze the relationship between time series response variable and other covariates. The coefficients in traditional regression and autoregressive mixed models are constants. However, for complicated data, the coefficients of covariates may change with time. In this article, we propose a kind of partial time-varying coefficient regression and autoregressive mixed model and obtain the local weighted least-square estimators of coefficient functions by the local polynomial technique. The asymptotic normality properties of estimators are derived under regularity conditions, and simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators. Finally, we use real data about Lake Shasta inflow to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

Transition from a filamentary mode to a diffuse one with varying distance from needle to stream of an argon plasma jet

Plasma jet has extensive application potentials in various fields, which normally operates in a diffuse mode when helium is used as the working gas. However, when less expensive argon is used, the plasma jet often operates in a filamentary mode. Compared to the filamentary mode, the diffuse mode is more desirable for applications. Hence, many efforts have been exerted to accomplish the diffuse mode of the argon plasma jet. In this paper, a novel single-needle argon plasma jet is developed to obtain the diffuse mode. It is found that the plasma jet operates in the filamentary mode when the distance from the needle tip to the central line of the argon stream(d) is short. It transits to the diffuse mode with increasing d. For the diffuse mode, there is always one discharge pulse per voltage cycle, which initiates at the rising edge of the positive voltage. For comparison, the number of discharge pulse increases with an increase in the peak voltage for the filamentary mode. Fast photography reveals that the plasma plume in the filamentary mode results from a guided positive streamer,which propagates in the argon stream. However, the plume in the diffuse mode originates from a branched streamer, which propagates in the interfacial layer between the argon stream and the surrounding air. By optical emission spectroscopy,plasma parameters are investigated for the two discharge modes, which show a similar trend with increasing d. The diffuse mode has lower electron temperature, electron density, vibrational temperature, and gas temperature compared to the filamentary mode.

MODE降水检验评价指标改进及卷积半径应用

基于对象的诊断检验方法(MODE)受降水临界值、卷积半径、属性权重等参数的影响,合理选取卷积半径并准确表征预报场与观测场之间的空间相似度决定了MODE的应用效果。本文基于2020年夏季贵州54个降水个例,以多源融合降水(CMPA)作为实况,使用MODE和FSS评分(Fractions Skill Score)对中国气象局广东快速更新同化数值预报系统(CMA-GD)24 h日降水预报进行空间检验。结果表明:卷积半径过小易造成MODE提取降水对象过多,而卷积半径过大则导致局部降水信息丢失,无法从降水场中提取到降水对象。不同卷积半径下计算的最大相似度中值(M_(MI))存在突变。在M_(MI)基础上引入面积权重构造面积平均最大相似度(A_(MMI))。A_(MMI)不受提取降水对象个数的影响,较M_(MI)更具有稳定性,用于表征降水场之间的整体空间相似程度更为合理。根据对象总面积随卷积半径的变化将降水分为大范围降水和局部降水2类。大范围降水平均总面积随着卷积半径的增加而增加,A_(MMI)随卷积半径变化不大。随着卷积半径的增加,局部降水平均总面积减小,平均A_(MMI)有所减小。局部降水对卷积半径选取较为敏感,以观测场对象面积变化不超过10%的最大半径作为卷积半径有助于保留降水场大部分信息。

Control of 2-D Semi-Markov Jump Systems:A View from Mode Generation Mechanism

Dear Editor,Two-dimensional(2-D) systems have wide applications in image data processing,gas absorption and fluid dynamics analysis [1]-[3].When there exist abrupt changes in 2-D systems,they are usually modeled by 2-D Markov jump systems(MJSs) or 2-D semi-Markov jump systems(SMJSs).This letter investigates the control of 2-D SMJSs based on a novel mode generation mechanism,which could avoid mode ambiguousness phenomenon caused by the evolution of system mode in two different directions.The criterion that guarantees the almost surely exponential stability of the system is obtained.A thermal process is studied to demonstrate the availability of the proposed method.

Influences of Co-Flow and Counter-Flow Modes of Reactant Flow Arrangement on a PEMFC at Start-Up

To investigate the influences of co-flowand counter-flowmodes of reactant flowarrangement on a proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC)during start-up,unsteady physical and mathematical models fully coupling the flow,heat,and electrochemical reactions in a PEMFC are established.The continuity equation and momentum equation are solved by handling pressure-velocity coupling using the SIMPLE algorithm.The electrochemical reaction rates in the catalyst layers(CLs)of the cathode and anode are calculated using the Butler-Volmer equation.The multiphase mixture model describes the multiphase transport process of gas mixtures and liquid water in the fuel cell.After validation,the influences of co-flow and counter-flow modes on the PEMFC performance are investigated,including the evolution of the current density,flow field,temperature field,and reactant concentration field during start-up,as well as the steady distribution of the current density,reactant concentration,andmembrane water content when the start-up stabilizes.Co-flow and counter-flow modes influence the current density distribution and temperature distribution.On the one hand,the co-flow mode accelerates the start-up process of the PEMFC and leads to a more evenly distributed current density than the counter-flow mode.On the other hand,the temperature difference between the inlet and outlet sections of the cell is up to 10.1℃ under the co-flow mode,much larger than the 5.0℃ observed in the counter-flow mode.Accordingly,the counter-flowmode results in a more evenly distributed temperature and a lower maximum temperature than the co-flow case.Therefore,in the flow field design of a PEMFC,the reactant flow arrangements can be considered to weigh between better heat management and higher current density distribution of the cell.

Investigation on the roles of equilibrium toroidal rotation during edge-localized mode mitigated by resonant magnetic perturbations

The effects of equilibrium toroidal rotation during edge-localized mode(ELM)mitigated by resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)are studied with the experimental equilibria of the EAST tokamak based on the four-field model in the BOUT++code.As the two main parameters to determine the toroidal rotation profiles,the rotation shear and magnitudes were separately scanned to investigate their roles in the impact of RMPs on peeling-ballooning(P-B)modes.On one hand,the results show that strong toroidal rotation shear is favorable for the enhancement of the self-generated E×B shearing rate<ω_(E×B)>with RMPs,leading to significant ELM mitigation with RMP in the stronger toroidal rotation shear region.On the other hand,toroidal rotation magnitudes may affect ELM mitigation by changing the penetration of the RMPs,more precisely the resonant components.RMPs can lead to a reduction in the pedestal energy loss by enhancing the multimode coupling in the turbulence transport phase.The shielding effects on RMPs increase with the toroidal rotation magnitude,leading to the enhancement of the multimode coupling with RMPs to be significantly weakened.Hence,the reduction in pedestal energy loss by RMPs decreased with the rotation magnitude.In brief,the results show that toroidal rotation plays a dual role in ELM mitigation with RMP by changing the shielding effects of plasma by rotation magnitude and affecting<ω_(E×B)>by rotation shear.In the high toroidal rotation region,toroidal rotation shear is usually strong and hence plays a dominant role in the influence of RMP on P-B modes,whereas in the low rotation region,toroidal rotation shear is weak and has negligible impact on P-B modes,and the rotation magnitude plays a dominant role in the influence of RMPs on the P-B modes by changing the field penetration.Therefore,the dual role of toroidal rotation leads to stronger ELM mitigation with RMP,which may be achieved both in the low toroidal rotation region and the relatively high rotation region that has strong rotational shear.

Complementary-Label Adversarial Domain Adaptation Fault Diagnosis Network under Time-Varying Rotational Speed and Weakly-Supervised Conditions

Recent research in cross-domain intelligence fault diagnosis of machinery still has some problems,such as relatively ideal speed conditions and sample conditions.In engineering practice,the rotational speed of the machine is often transient and time-varying,which makes the sample annotation increasingly expensive.Meanwhile,the number of samples collected from different health states is often unbalanced.To deal with the above challenges,a complementary-label(CL)adversarial domain adaptation fault diagnosis network(CLADAN)is proposed under time-varying rotational speed and weakly-supervised conditions.In the weakly supervised learning condition,machine prior information is used for sample annotation via cost-friendly complementary label learning.A diagnosticmodel learning strategywith discretized category probabilities is designed to avoidmulti-peak distribution of prediction results.In adversarial training process,we developed virtual adversarial regularization(VAR)strategy,which further enhances the robustness of the model by adding adversarial perturbations in the target domain.Comparative experiments on two case studies validated the superior performance of the proposed method.

On the generation of high-quality Nyquist pulses in mode-locked fiber lasers

Nyquist pulses have wide applications in many areas,from electronics to optics.Mode-locked lasers are ideal platforms to generate such pulses.However,how to generate high-quality Nyquist pulses in mode-locked lasers remains elusive.We address this problem by managing different physical effects in mode-locked fiber lasers through extensive numerical simulations.We find that net dispersion,linear loss,gain and filter shaping can affect the quality of Nyquist pulses significantly.We also demonstrate that Nyquist pulses experience similariton shaping due to the nonlinear attractor effect in the gain medium.Our work may contribute to the design of Nyquist pulse sources and enrich the understanding of pulse shaping dynamics in mode-locked lasers.

Finite-time Prescribed Performance Time-Varying Formation Control for Second-Order Multi-Agent Systems With Non-Strict Feedback Based on a Neural Network Observer

This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.

Nuclear magnetic resonance experiments on the time-varying law of oil viscosity and wettability in high-multiple waterflooding sandstone cores

A simulated oil viscosity prediction model is established according to the relationship between simulated oil viscosity and geometric mean value of T2spectrum,and the time-varying law of simulated oil viscosity in porous media is quantitatively characterized by nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)experiments of high multiple waterflooding.A new NMR wettability index formula is derived based on NMR relaxation theory to quantitatively characterize the time-varying law of rock wettability during waterflooding combined with high-multiple waterflooding experiment in sandstone cores.The remaining oil viscosity in the core is positively correlated with the displacing water multiple.The remaining oil viscosity increases rapidly when the displacing water multiple is low,and increases slowly when the displacing water multiple is high.The variation of remaining oil viscosity is related to the reservoir heterogeneity.The stronger the reservoir homogeneity,the higher the content of heavy components in the remaining oil and the higher the viscosity.The reservoir wettability changes after water injection:the oil-wet reservoir changes into water-wet reservoir,while the water-wet reservoir becomes more hydrophilic;the degree of change enhances with the increase of displacing water multiple.There is a high correlation between the time-varying oil viscosity and the time-varying wettability,and the change of oil viscosity cannot be ignored.The NMR wettability index calculated by considering the change of oil viscosity is more consistent with the tested Amott(spontaneous imbibition)wettability index,which agrees more with the time-varying law of reservoir wettability.

Effects of diamagnetic drift on nonlinear interaction between multi-helicity neoclassical tearing modes

A numerical study of the diamagnetic drift effect on the nonlinear interaction between multi-helicity neoclassical tearing modes(NTMs) is carried out using a set of four-field equations including two-fluid effects.The results show that,in contrast to the single-fluid case,5/3 NTM cannot be completely suppressed by 3/2 NTM with diamagnetic drift flow.Both modes exhibit oscillation and coexist in the saturated phase.To better understand the effect of the diamagnetic drift flow on multiple-helicity NTMs,the influence of typical relevant parameters is investigated.It is found that the average saturated magnetic island width increases with increasing bootstrap current fraction f_(b) but decreases with the ion skin depth δ.In addition,as the ratio of parallel to perpendicular transport coefficients χ_(‖)/χ_(⊥) increases,the average saturated magnetic island widths of the 3/2 and 5/3 NTMs increase.The underlying mechanisms behind these observations are discussed in detail.

Numerical Simulation of Slurry Diffusion in Fractured Rocks Considering a Time-Varying Viscosity

To analyze the effects of a time-varying viscosity on the penetration length of grouting,in this study cement slur-ries with varying water-cement ratios have been investigated using the Bingham’sfluidflow equation and a dis-crete element method.Afluid-solid coupling numerical model has been introduced accordingly,and its accuracy has been validated through comparison of theoretical and numerical solutions.For different fracture forms(a single fracture,a branch fracture,and a fracture network),the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the slurry length range has been investigated,considering the change in the fracture aperture.The results show that under different fracture forms and the same grouting process conditions,the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the seepage length is 0.350 m.

Constraint on the focal mechanism of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake from the radial modes

Different from other normal modes of the Earth’s free oscillation that depend on all the six components(M_(rr),M_(tt),M_(pp),M_(rt),M_(rp),and M_(tp))of the centroid moment tensor,the amplitudes of the radial modes depend on the M_(rr)component(e.g.,scalar moment(M_(0)),dip(δ),and slip(λ))and hypocenter depth of the focal mechanism,and hence can be easily used to constrain these parameters of the focal mechanism.In this study,we use the superconducting gravimeter(SG)records after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake to analyze the radial modes_(0)S_(0)and_(1)S_(0).Based on the solutions of the focal mechanism provided by the GCMT and USGS,we can obtain the theoretical amplitudes of these two radial modes.Comparing the theoretical amplitudes with the observation amplitudes,it is found that there are obvious differences between the former and the latter,which means that the GCMT and USGS focal mechanisms cannot well represent the real focal mechanism of the 2011 event.Taking the GCMT solution as a reference and changing the depth and the three parameters of the M_(rr)moment,the scalar moment(M_(0))and the dip(δ)have significant influences,but the effects of the slip(λ)and the depth are minor.After comparisons,we provide a new constraint(M_(0)=5.8±0.09×10^(22)N·m,δ=10.1±0.08°,λ=88°,and depth=20 km)for the focal mechanism of the 2011 event.In addition,we further determine the center frequency(1.631567±2.6e^(-6)mHz)and quality factor(2046.4±50.1)of the_(1)S_(0)mode.

Adaptive Event-Triggered Time-Varying Output Group Formation Containment Control of Heterogeneous Multiagent Systems

In this paper,a class of time-varying output group formation containment control problem of general linear hetero-geneous multiagent systems(MASs)is investigated under directed topology.The MAS is composed of a number of tracking leaders,formation leaders and followers,where two different types of leaders are used to provide reference trajectories for movement and to achieve certain formations,respectively.Firstly,compen-sators are designed whose states are estimations of tracking lead-ers,based on which,a controller is developed for each formation leader to accomplish the expected formation.Secondly,two event-triggered compensators are proposed for each follower to evalu-ate the state and formation information of the formation leaders in the same group,respectively.Subsequently,a control protocol is designed for each follower,utilizing the output information,to guide the output towards the convex hull generated by the forma-tion leaders within the group.Next,the triggering sequence in this paper is decomposed into two sequences,and the inter-event intervals of these two triggering conditions are provided to rule out the Zeno behavior.Finally,a numerical simulation is intro-duced to confirm the validity of the proposed results.