A New Method for Deriving High-Vertical-Resolution Wind Vector Data from the L-Band Radar Sounding System in China

High-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind data are highly valuable for describing the dynamics of the meso-and microscale atmosphere. However, the current algorithm used in China's L-band radar sounding system for calculating highvertical-resolution wind vectors excessively smooths the data, resulting in significant underestimation of the calculated kinetic energy of gravity waves compared to similar products from other countries, which greatly limits the effective utilization of the data. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to calculate high-vertical-resolution wind vectors that utilizes the elevation angle, azimuth angle, and slant range from L-band radar. In order to obtain wind data with a stable quality, a two-step automatic quality control procedure, including the RMSE-F(root-mean-square error F) test and elemental consistency test are first applied to the slant range data, to eliminate continuous erroneous data caused by unstable signals or radar malfunctions. Then, a wind calculation scheme based on a sliding second-order polynomial fitting is utilized to derive the high-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind vectors. The evaluation results demonstrate that the wind data obtained through the proposed method show a high level of consistency with the high-resolution wind data observed using the Vaisala Global Positioning System and the data observed by the new Beidou Navigation Sounding System. The calculation of the kinetic energy of gravity waves in the recalculated wind data also reaches a level comparable to the Vaisala observations.

Retrieval algorithm of sea surface wind vectors for WindSat based on a simple forward model

WindSat/Coriolis is the first satellite-borne polarimetric microwave radiometer, which aims to improve the potential of polarimetric microwave radiometry for measuring sea surface wind vectors from space. In this paper, a wind vector retrieval algorithm based on a novel and simple forward model was developed for WindSat. The retrieval algorithm of sea surface wind speed was developed using multiple linear regression based on the simulation dataset of the novel forward model. Sea surface wind directions that minimize the difference between simulated and measured values of the third and fourth Stokes parameters were found using maximum likelihood estimation, by which a group of ambiguous wind directions was obtained. A median filter was then used to remove ambiguity of wind direction. Evaluated with sea surface wind speed and direction data from the U.S. National Data Buoy Center （NDBC）, root mean square errors are 1.2 rn/s and 30~ for retrieved wind speed and wind direction, respectively. The evaluation results suggest that the simple forward model and the retrieval algorithm are practicable for near-real time applications, without reducing accuracy.

SCADA Data-Based Support Vector Machine for False Alarm Identification for Wind Turbine Management

Maintenance operations have a critical influence on power gen-eration by wind turbines(WT).Advanced algorithms must analyze large volume of data from condition monitoring systems(CMS)to determine the actual working conditions and avoid false alarms.This paper proposes different support vector machine(SVM)algorithms for the prediction and detection of false alarms.K-Fold cross-validation(CV)is applied to evaluate the classification reliability of these algorithms.Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition(SCADA)data from an operating WT are applied to test the proposed approach.The results from the quadratic SVM showed an accuracy rate of 98.6%.Misclassifications from the confusion matrix,alarm log and maintenance records are analyzed to obtain quantitative information and determine if it is a false alarm.The classifier reduces the number of false alarms called misclassifications by 25%.These results demonstrate that the proposed approach presents high reliability and accuracy in false alarm identification.

Improved AVOA based on LSSVM for wind power prediction

Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is an effective means to reduce the impact of wind power on power grid.Therefore,we proposed an improved African vulture optimization algorithm(AVOA)to realize the prediction model of multi-objective optimization least squares support vector machine(LSSVM).Firstly,the original wind power time series was decomposed into a certain number of intrinsic modal components(IMFs)using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Secondly,random numbers in population initialization were replaced by Tent chaotic mapping,multi-objective LSSVM optimization was introduced by AVOA improved by elitist non-dominated sorting and crowding operator,and then each component was predicted.Finally,Tent multi-objective AVOA-LSSVM(TMOALSSVM)method was used to sum each component to obtain the final prediction result.The simulation results show that the improved AVOA based on Tent chaotic mapping,the improved non-dominated sorting algorithm with elite strategy,and the improved crowding operator are the optimal models for single-objective and multi-objective prediction.Among them,TMOALSSVM model has the smallest average error of stroke power values in four seasons,which are 0.0694,0.0545 and 0.0211,respectively.The average value of DS statistics in the four seasons is 0.9902,and the statistical value is the largest.The proposed model effectively predicts four seasons of wind power values on lateral and longitudinal precision,and faster and more accurately finds the optimal solution on the current solution space sets,which proves that the method has a certain scientific significance in the development of wind power prediction technology.

Dynamic characteristics of the planetary gear train excited by time-varying meshing stiffness in the wind turbine

Wind power has attracted increasing attention as a renewable and clean energy. Gear fault frequently occurs under extreme environment and complex loads. The time-varying meshing stiffness is one of the main excitations. This study proposes a 5 degree-of-freedom torsional vibration model for the planetary gear system. The influence of some parameters(e.g., contact ratio and phase difference) is discussed under different conditions of a single teeth pair and double pairs of teeth. The impact load caused by the teeth face fault, ramped load induced by the complex wind conditions, and the harmonic excitation are investigated. The analysis of the time-varying meshing stiffness and the dynamic meshing force shows that the dynamic design under different loads can be made to avoid resonance, can provide the basis for the gear fault location of a wind turbine, and distinguish the fault characteristics from the vibration signals.

Time-variant reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes based on Support Vector Machine method

In the reliability analysis of slope, the performance functions derived from the most available stability analysis procedures of slopes are usually implicit and cannot be solved by first-order second-moment approach. A new reliability analysis approach was presented based on three-dimensional Morgenstem-Price method to investigate three-dimensional effect of landslide in stability analyses. To obtain the reliability index, Support Vector Machine （SVM） was applied to approximate the performance function. The time-consuming of this approach is only 0.028% of that using Monte-Carlo method at the same computation accuracy. Also, the influence of time effect of shearing strength parameters of slope soils on the long-term reliability of three-dimensional slopes was investigated by this new approach. It is found that the reliability index of the slope would decrease by 52.54% and the failure probability would increase from 0.000 705% to 1.966%. In the end, the impact of variation coefficients of c andfon reliability index of slopes was taken into discussion and the changing trend was observed.

Vector Dominating Multi-objective Evolution Algorithm for Aerodynamic-Structure Integrative Design of Wind Turbine Blade

A novel multi-objective optimization algorithm incorporating vector method and evolution strategies,referred as vector dominant multi-objective evolutionary algorithm(VD-MOEA),is developed and applied to the aerodynamic-structural integrative design of wind turbine blades.A set of virtual vectors are elaborately constructed,guiding population to fast move forward to the Pareto optimal front and dominating the distribution uniformity with high efficiency.In comparison to conventional evolution algorithms,VD-MOEA displays dramatic improvement of algorithm performance in both convergence and diversity preservation when handling complex problems of multi-variables,multi-objectives and multi-constraints.As an example,a 1.5 MW wind turbine blade is subsequently designed taking the maximum annual energy production,the minimum blade mass,and the minimum blade root thrust as the optimization objectives.The results show that the Pareto optimal set can be obtained in one single simulation run and that the obtained solutions in the optimal set are distributed quite uniformly,maximally maintaining the population diversity.The efficiency of VD-MOEA has been elevated by two orders of magnitude compared with the classical NSGA-II.This provides a reliable high-performance optimization approach for the aerodynamic-structural integrative design of wind turbine blade.

Influence of Wind Vector Structure Variation of Typhoon "Catfish" Circulation on Its Pathway Mutation

[Objective] The research aimed to study the wind vector structure variation of No.1013 strong typhoon 'catfish',and its influence on typhoon pathway mutation.[Method] According to the theory that the asymmetric structure of typhoon vortex had influence on typhoon movement,the center of No.1013 super typhoon 'catfish' was as the coordinate origin,and 850,500 hPa tangential rotation speeds within 300-500 km were decomposed into u and v components.The composite force movement tendency of typhoon was analyzed.The wind vector structure variation of No.1013 strong typhoon 'catfish' and its influence on typhoon pathway mutation were discussed.[Result] At the quick movement stage of No.1013 strong typhoon,the wind vector had obvious asymmetric structure.When the typhoon rotated in situ,the wind vector presented symmetric structure.When ΔU,ΔV and composite wind vector had obvious variations,the composite force of typhoon changed,and the moved direction also would change.The asymmetric structure of wind speed near 300-500 km around 500 and 850 hPa typhoon centers was favorable for tendency of moved pathway.The pointed directions of ΔU,ΔV and composite wind vector could be as the direction of composite force movement of typhoon.[Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for typhoon prevention.

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Fuzzy Clustering and Support Vector Regression

A sustainable production of electricity is essential for low carbon green growth in South Korea. The generation of wind power as renewable energy has been rapidly growing around the world. Undoubtedly, wind energy is unlimited in potential. However due to its own intermittency and volatility, there are difficulties in the effective harvesting of wind energy and the integration of wind power into the current electric power grid. To cope with this, many works have been done for wind speed and power forecasting. In this paper, an SVR （support vector regression） using FCM （Fuzzy C-Means） is proposed for wind speed forecasting. This paper describes the design of an FCM based SVR to increase the prediction accuracy. Proposed model was compared with ordinary SVR model using balanced and unbalanced test data. Also, multi-step ahead forecasting result was compared. Kernel parameters in SVR are adaptively determined in order to improve forecasting accuracy. An illustrative example is given by using real-world wind farm dataset. According to the experimental results, it is shown that the proposed method provides better forecasts of wind power.

An advanced wind vector retrieval algorithm for the rotating fan-beam scatterometer

The rotating fan-beam scatterometer （RFSCAT） is a new type of satellite scatterometer that is proposed approximately 10 a ago. However, similar to other rotating scatterometers, relatively larger wind retrieval errors occur in the nadir and outer regions compared with the middle regions of the swath. For the RFSCAT with the given parameters, a wind direction retrieval accuracy decreases by approximately 9 in the outer regions compared with the middle region. To address this problem, an advanced wind vector retrieval algorithm for the RFSCAT is presented. The new algorithm features an adaptive extension of the range of wind direction for each wind vector cell position across the whole swath according to the distribution histogram of a retrieved wind direction bias. One hundred orbits of Level 2A data are simulated to validate and evaluate the new algorithm. Retrieval experiments demonstrate that the new advanced algorithm can effectively improve the wind direction retrieval accuracy in the nadir and outer regions of the RFSCAT swath. Approximately 1.6 and 9 improvements in the wind direction retrieval are achieved for the wind vector cells located at the nadir and the edge point of the swath, respectively.

Application of four machine-learning methods to predict short-horizon wind energy

Renewable energy has garnered attention due to the need for sustainable energy sources.Wind power has emerged as an alternative that has contributed to the transition towards cleaner energy.As the importance of wind energy grows,it can be crucial to provide forecasts that optimize its performance potential.Artificial intelligence(AI)methods have risen in prominence due to how well they can handle complicated systems while enhancing the accuracy of prediction.This study explored the area of AI to predict wind-energy production at a wind farm in Yalova,Turkey,using four different AI approaches:support vector machines(SVMs),decision trees,adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems(ANFIS)and artificial neural networks(ANNs).Wind speed and direction were considered as essential input parameters,with wind energy as the target parameter,and models are thoroughly evaluated using metrics such as the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),coefficient of determination(R~2),and mean absolute error(MAE).The findings accentuate the superior performance of the SVM,which delivered the lowest MAPE(2.42%),the highest R~2(0.95),and the lowest MAE(71.21%)compared with actual values,while ANFIS was less effective in this context.The main aim of this comparative analysis was to rank the models to move to the next step in improving the least efficient methods by combining them with optimization algorithms,such as metaheuristic algorithms.

Improving Performance of Recurrent Neural Networks Using Simulated Annealing for Vertical Wind Speed Estimation

An accurate vertical wind speed(WS)data estimation is required to determine the potential for wind farm installation.In general,the vertical extrapolation of WS at different heights must consider different parameters fromdifferent locations,such as wind shear coefficient,roughness length,and atmospheric conditions.The novelty presented in this article is the introduction of two steps optimization for the Recurrent Neural Networks(RNN)model to estimate WS at different heights using measurements from lower heights.The first optimization of the RNN is performed to minimize a differentiable cost function,namely,mean squared error(MSE),using the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm.Secondly,the RNN is optimized to reduce a non-differentiable cost function using simulated annealing(RNN-SA),namely mean absolute error(MAE).Estimation ofWS vertically at 50 m height is done by training RNN-SA with the actualWS data a 10–40 m heights.The estimatedWS at height of 50 m and the measured WS at 10–40 heights are further used to train RNN-SA to obtain WS at 60 m height.This procedure is repeated continuously until theWS is estimated at a height of 180 m.The RNN-SA performance is compared with the standard RNN,Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Support Vector Machine(SVM),and state of the art methods like convolutional neural networks(CNN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)networks to extrapolate theWS vertically.The estimated values are also compared with realWS dataset acquired using LiDAR and tested using four error metrics namely,mean squared error(MSE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),mean bias error(MBE),and coefficient of determination(R2).The numerical experimental results show that the MSE values between the estimated and actualWS at 180mheight for the RNN-SA,RNN,MLP,and SVM methods are found to be 2.09,2.12,2.37,and 2.63,respectively.

基于频率响应与图像特征提取的动车组变压器绕组状态诊断方法研究

动车组变压器是保障高速铁路稳定运行的核心设备,频率响应法是目前检测变压器绕组状态的有效方法。为提升车载变压器绕组状态诊断的准确性,结合暂态信号与频率响应法提出基于频率响应与图像特征提取的动车组变压器绕组状态诊断方法。搭建试验车载变压器绕组故障模拟平台,获取不同故障类型和故障位置的频响曲线,利用类Gram矩阵结合幅频和相频曲线信息,再利用密度分层法转换为伪彩色图,提取对应的灰度共生矩阵和灰度差分矩阵特征值,根据鹈鹕优化支持向量机方法对绕组故障进行诊断。试验结果表明:车载变压器绕组故障发生时,伪彩色图能够反映出故障信息,有利于图像分析和特征提取,采用基于频率响应与图像特征提取的动车组变压器绕组状态诊断方法能够识别车载变压器绕组的典型故障类型和位置。

基于VMD-IMPA-SVM的超短期风电功率预测

针对风力发电强波动性带来的预测精度不高问题,构建一种基于变模态分解(VMD)、灰狼优化算法(GWO)、海洋捕食者算法(MPA)和支持向量机(SVM)的组合预测模型。采用GWO对VMD的模态数和惩罚因子进行寻优,将原始功率序列分解为子序列进行降噪处理;运用对立学习和柯西变异等方法改进MPA的种群生成与变异方式,得到改进MPA(IMPA)并优化SVM中的核参数与惩罚参数,进而构建VMD-IMPA-SVM组合预测模型,对各子序列进行预测并叠加得到最终预测值。实际算例分析表明,所提组合预测模型具有较高的预测精度,同时具备强鲁棒性。

基于PSO-SVR的海缆刚度预测模型研究

海缆刚度是表征海缆截面力学特性的重要指标。精细数值模拟方法可考虑层间接触、摩擦等非线性行为,实现刚度的精确获取。但在海缆的截面初步设计中需进行不同几何参数下刚度的对比分析,这一过程需投入大量的人力物力以完成多个对比模型的建模与计算。依托Nysted海上风电工程,建立海缆的有限元模型,采用正交试验法确定影响海缆抗拉刚度、逆时针抗扭刚度和顺时针抗扭刚度的主要因素;将主要影响因素作为粒子群优化算法-支持向量回归模型(PSO-SVR)的特征输入,分别建立海缆抗拉刚度、逆时针抗扭刚度和顺时针抗扭刚度的预测模型,并对比分析PSO-SVR模型与GRNN神经网络模型、BP神经网络模型的预测性能。计算结果表明:导体直径、钢丝直径、钢丝节距和铠装层数对海缆刚度的影响较大,而钢丝弹模对其影响较小;PSO-SVR模型的决定系数高于0.95且误差较低,预测效果均优于GRNN神经网络模型和BP神经网络模型,该预测模型可为海缆结构初步设计提供技术支撑。

星下点观测的星载卫星导航反射信号海面风矢量极大似然估计

该文针对星载全球导航卫星反射计(GNSS-R)镜面反射信号对海面风向不敏感导致海面风向反演难问题,分析非镜向海面散射信号特征,提出星下点非镜向观测模式,定义该模式下海面风矢量敏感特征观测量,在此基础上提出基于星载GNSS-R海面风矢量极大似然估计(MLE)反演算法直接利用两颗及以上导航卫星的星下点非镜向散射信号进行海面风矢量的反演,并提出风矢量搜索算法提高反演效率。通过搭建星载GNSS-R仿真平台验证算法的可行性和评估算法性能。结果表明:所提算法可直接利用非镜向独立观测模式下的多颗导航卫星散射信号反演得到海面风速和风向;多星观测可消除观测几何导致的模糊解从而将海风风向4个模糊解降至2个模糊解,但无法消除海浪谱的对称性导致的海面风向模糊解。在2~25 m/s的风速内,当信噪比(SNR)大于11 dB时,3星观测的风速均方根误差(RMSE)优于2 m/s,风向的均方根误差优于15°。

风洞试验模型姿态精确计算

针对传统姿态角计算存在计算复杂和不准确的问题,根据理论和工程实践方法,建立向量角度坐标系,给出不同飞行姿态坐标系之间的变换与角度定义关系,能够精确计算出对应坐标系姿态角大小,并判定其方向,尤其在通道耦合计算时,使得坐标系间的姿态角计算只跟角度有关系,而跟坐标系变化次序没有关系。结果表明:该方法能简化计算过程,解决风洞实验和飞行器运动过程中姿态角求解复杂、误差大的问题。

基于VMD-LILGWO-LSSVM短期风电功率预测

目的为了减小风电功率并入国家电网时产生的频率波动,提高风电功率预测精度,方法提出一种结合变分模态分解(VMD)、改进灰狼算法(LILGWO)和最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的风电功率短期预测方法。首先通过VMD方法将风电功率序列分解重构成3个复杂程度性不同的模态分量,降低风电功率的波动性;其次使用LSSVM挖掘各分量的特征信息,对各分量分别进行预测,针对LSSVM模型中重要参数的选取对预测精度影响较大问题,引入LILGWO对参数进行寻优;最后将各分量预测结果叠加重构,得到最终预测风电功率。结果以宁夏回族自治区某地区风电站实际数据为例,对未来三天分别进行预测取平均值,本文方法的预测平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)为2.7068 kW,均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)为2.0211,拟合程度决定系数(R-Square,R^(2))为0.9769,与对比方法3~6相比,RMSE分别降低了40.93%,25.21%,14.7%,6.24%;MAE分别降低了42.34%,28.04%,16.97%,7.77%;R^(2)分别提升了4.21%,1.78%,0.82%,0.28%。预测时长方面,BP和LSSVM平均训练时间分别是10,138 s,虽然LSSVM预测时间较长但效果最好,采用PSO、GWO、LILGWO对LSSVM进行寻优后训练时间分别平均缩短了39,44,58 s。结论仿真验证了所提方法在短期风电功率预测方面的有效性。

一种基于静止卫星的海面风矢量估测方法

参考大气动力学理论中风随高度、纬度的分布特征,提出一种基于静止卫星低层大气导风利用全连接神经网络估测海面风的新思路,构建基于卫星遥感数据的全连接神经网络海面风矢量估测模型,实现基于大气导风的海面风估测。基于GOES-16先进基线成像仪可见光通道0.5 km分辨率大气导风开展试验,并与2021年1月1日—12月31日北美近海岸和海上93个美国国家数据浮标中心浮标数据比对,结果表明:全连接神经网络估算得到基于大气导风的海面风风速均方根误差不大于1.5 m·s^(-1),较传统模型降低0.24 m·s^(-1)。将模型应用于飓风场景,通过与2022年3个北大西洋飓风和3个东太平洋飓风共13个时次的再分析数据比对表明:基于大气导风的海面风风速均方根误差不大于1.1 m·s^(-1),相较于传统经验模型降低0.04 m·s^(-1),在低风速区无系统性偏差。

基于WT和黏菌算法的LSSVM短期风功率预测

针对风电出力存在随机性、波动性等问题,建立基于小波变换(WT)与黏菌算法(Slime mould algorithm, SMA)优化最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)关键参数的风功率预测模型。首先利用小波变换将风功率信号以及风速信号分解为多个不同频率的平稳的子序列,并提出采用一种黏菌优化算法优化LSSVM的参数,同时引入气象因素,包括风速、风向、温度、气压、湿度作为输入,分别建立模型来预测风电功率。通过将各个模型预测结果加和得到完整的风功率预测值。使用某风电厂数据进行仿真验证,实验结果表明,所提出的WT-SMA-LSSVM预测模型在短期风功率预测中具有更高的预测精度。