This paper reaches a recommendation for the 10-year e-bus transition roadmap for New York City. The lifecycle model of emission reduction demonstrates the ecological and financial impacts of a complete transition from...This paper reaches a recommendation for the 10-year e-bus transition roadmap for New York City. The lifecycle model of emission reduction demonstrates the ecological and financial impacts of a complete transition from the current diesel bus fleet to an all-electric bus fleet in New York City by 2033. This study focuses on the NOx pollution, which is the highest among all major cities by Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and greenhouse gases (GHG) with annual emissions of over five million tons. Our model predicts that switching to an all-electric bus fleet will cut GHG emissions by over 390,000 tons and NOx emissions by over 1300 tons annually, in addition to other pollutants such as VOCs and PM 2.5. yielding an annual economic benefit of over 75.94 million USD. This aligns with the city mayor office’s initiative of achieving total carbon neutrality. We further model an optimized transition roadmap that balances ecological and long-term benefits against the costs of the transition, emphasizing feasibility and alignment with the natural replacement cycle of existing buses, ensuring a steady budgeting pattern to minimize interruptions and resistance. Finally, we advocate for collaboration between government agencies, public transportation authorities, and private sectors, including electric buses and charging facility manufacturers, which is essential for fostering innovation and reducing the costs associated with the transition to e-buses.展开更多
商用车碳减排已经成为我国道路交通减碳的关键瓶颈,新能源商用车被视作重型商用车减碳的重要途径,但是新能源商用车的市场渗透率远低于其他车辆部门;但与此同时,现阶段新能源零碳商用车的发展还存在着应用场景复杂、技术路径多样化、同...商用车碳减排已经成为我国道路交通减碳的关键瓶颈,新能源商用车被视作重型商用车减碳的重要途径,但是新能源商用车的市场渗透率远低于其他车辆部门;但与此同时,现阶段新能源零碳商用车的发展还存在着应用场景复杂、技术路径多样化、同时成本较高的显著的瓶颈。本研究构建了基于新能源汽车总拥有成本(total cost of ownership,TCO)、使用便利性等因素的多元Logit离散选择模型——零碳商用车市场演进模型(discrete choice-based market evolution of green truck model,DC-MEGT),使用自下向上的方法计算TCO,并将车辆使用便利性使用补能时间成本进行货币化量化,构建综合效用函数对纯电动车、燃料电池汽车及零碳燃料等不同动力类型从目前到2060年的市场渗透率演进情况进行预测分析。研究以重型长途牵引场景为例进行分析,结果表明2060年主要的技术路径包括燃料电池汽车、纯电动车、天然气及柴油车,占比分别为48%、28%、12%和10%。政策推广、技术进步、商业模式等因素的不确定性会引发纯电动车和燃料电池汽车2060年市场份额17%~19%的波动。展开更多
For the purpose of improvement of the sales, confirming the influence of price to the sales and customer satisfaction of the product is important. The most suitable price should be determined from the view point of cu...For the purpose of improvement of the sales, confirming the influence of price to the sales and customer satisfaction of the product is important. The most suitable price should be determined from the view point of customers, and it is extremely important to implement a high quality product corresponding to the real need of customers. It may have close relationship between cost and an expense to implement the individual inherent attribute of system product. Also, it may have close relationship between production cost and price of product. For the purpose of improvement of the customer satisfaction for quality of system product, the method of quantitative quality requirement and evaluation based on the ISO/IEC9126 quality model that includes six quality characteristics is widely recognized. In the precedent study, I have introduced the requirements definition method for the quality of system product based on the system quality model defined in ISO/IEC9126 and proposed the effectiveness of it statistically. In the previous study, I have also confirmed the relationship between inherent attributes of the product and quantitative result of the measured value of total customer satisfaction from the view point of six quality characteristics statistically. I performed the development of the prediction model to estimate the total customer satisfaction for the system product from the view point of inherent attribute of the product. And, I have proposed the effectiveness of application of the estimated prediction model and possibility of improvement of the total customer satisfaction of a system product. Based on the result of previous study, in this paper, I propose the result of investigation of influence of price to customer satisfaction, and the possibility of application of estimated prediction model for improvement of the total customer satisfaction of system product based on the price of product. Also, based on the result of investigation of relationship among price and inherent attributes of product, I propose the possibility of application of estimated prediction model and improvement of the price of system product from the view point of inherent attributes of product.展开更多
文摘This paper reaches a recommendation for the 10-year e-bus transition roadmap for New York City. The lifecycle model of emission reduction demonstrates the ecological and financial impacts of a complete transition from the current diesel bus fleet to an all-electric bus fleet in New York City by 2033. This study focuses on the NOx pollution, which is the highest among all major cities by Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and greenhouse gases (GHG) with annual emissions of over five million tons. Our model predicts that switching to an all-electric bus fleet will cut GHG emissions by over 390,000 tons and NOx emissions by over 1300 tons annually, in addition to other pollutants such as VOCs and PM 2.5. yielding an annual economic benefit of over 75.94 million USD. This aligns with the city mayor office’s initiative of achieving total carbon neutrality. We further model an optimized transition roadmap that balances ecological and long-term benefits against the costs of the transition, emphasizing feasibility and alignment with the natural replacement cycle of existing buses, ensuring a steady budgeting pattern to minimize interruptions and resistance. Finally, we advocate for collaboration between government agencies, public transportation authorities, and private sectors, including electric buses and charging facility manufacturers, which is essential for fostering innovation and reducing the costs associated with the transition to e-buses.
文摘商用车碳减排已经成为我国道路交通减碳的关键瓶颈,新能源商用车被视作重型商用车减碳的重要途径,但是新能源商用车的市场渗透率远低于其他车辆部门;但与此同时,现阶段新能源零碳商用车的发展还存在着应用场景复杂、技术路径多样化、同时成本较高的显著的瓶颈。本研究构建了基于新能源汽车总拥有成本(total cost of ownership,TCO)、使用便利性等因素的多元Logit离散选择模型——零碳商用车市场演进模型(discrete choice-based market evolution of green truck model,DC-MEGT),使用自下向上的方法计算TCO,并将车辆使用便利性使用补能时间成本进行货币化量化,构建综合效用函数对纯电动车、燃料电池汽车及零碳燃料等不同动力类型从目前到2060年的市场渗透率演进情况进行预测分析。研究以重型长途牵引场景为例进行分析,结果表明2060年主要的技术路径包括燃料电池汽车、纯电动车、天然气及柴油车,占比分别为48%、28%、12%和10%。政策推广、技术进步、商业模式等因素的不确定性会引发纯电动车和燃料电池汽车2060年市场份额17%~19%的波动。
文摘For the purpose of improvement of the sales, confirming the influence of price to the sales and customer satisfaction of the product is important. The most suitable price should be determined from the view point of customers, and it is extremely important to implement a high quality product corresponding to the real need of customers. It may have close relationship between cost and an expense to implement the individual inherent attribute of system product. Also, it may have close relationship between production cost and price of product. For the purpose of improvement of the customer satisfaction for quality of system product, the method of quantitative quality requirement and evaluation based on the ISO/IEC9126 quality model that includes six quality characteristics is widely recognized. In the precedent study, I have introduced the requirements definition method for the quality of system product based on the system quality model defined in ISO/IEC9126 and proposed the effectiveness of it statistically. In the previous study, I have also confirmed the relationship between inherent attributes of the product and quantitative result of the measured value of total customer satisfaction from the view point of six quality characteristics statistically. I performed the development of the prediction model to estimate the total customer satisfaction for the system product from the view point of inherent attribute of the product. And, I have proposed the effectiveness of application of the estimated prediction model and possibility of improvement of the total customer satisfaction of a system product. Based on the result of previous study, in this paper, I propose the result of investigation of influence of price to customer satisfaction, and the possibility of application of estimated prediction model for improvement of the total customer satisfaction of system product based on the price of product. Also, based on the result of investigation of relationship among price and inherent attributes of product, I propose the possibility of application of estimated prediction model and improvement of the price of system product from the view point of inherent attributes of product.
