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Missing Value Imputation for Radar-Derived Time-Series Tracks of Aerial Targets Based on Improved Self-Attention-Based Network
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作者 Zihao Song Yan Zhou +2 位作者 Wei Cheng Futai Liang Chenhao Zhang 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第3期3349-3376,共28页
The frequent missing values in radar-derived time-series tracks of aerial targets(RTT-AT)lead to significant challenges in subsequent data-driven tasks.However,the majority of imputation research focuses on random mis... The frequent missing values in radar-derived time-series tracks of aerial targets(RTT-AT)lead to significant challenges in subsequent data-driven tasks.However,the majority of imputation research focuses on random missing(RM)that differs significantly from common missing patterns of RTT-AT.The method for solving the RM may experience performance degradation or failure when applied to RTT-AT imputation.Conventional autoregressive deep learning methods are prone to error accumulation and long-term dependency loss.In this paper,a non-autoregressive imputation model that addresses the issue of missing value imputation for two common missing patterns in RTT-AT is proposed.Our model consists of two probabilistic sparse diagonal masking self-attention(PSDMSA)units and a weight fusion unit.It learns missing values by combining the representations outputted by the two units,aiming to minimize the difference between the missing values and their actual values.The PSDMSA units effectively capture temporal dependencies and attribute correlations between time steps,improving imputation quality.The weight fusion unit automatically updates the weights of the output representations from the two units to obtain a more accurate final representation.The experimental results indicate that,despite varying missing rates in the two missing patterns,our model consistently outperforms other methods in imputation performance and exhibits a low frequency of deviations in estimates for specific missing entries.Compared to the state-of-the-art autoregressive deep learning imputation model Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series(BRITS),our proposed model reduces mean absolute error(MAE)by 31%~50%.Additionally,the model attains a training speed that is 4 to 8 times faster when compared to both BRITS and a standard Transformer model when trained on the same dataset.Finally,the findings from the ablation experiments demonstrate that the PSDMSA,the weight fusion unit,cascade network design,and imputation loss enhance imputation performance and confirm the efficacy of our design. 展开更多
关键词 Missing value imputation time-series tracks probabilistic sparsity diagonal masking self-attention weight fusion
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Numerical analysis of high‑speed railway slab tracks using calibrated and validated 3D time‑domain modelling
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作者 A.F.Esen O.Laghrouche +4 位作者 P.K.Woodward D.Medina‑Pineda Q.Corbisez J.Y.Shih D.P.Connolly 《Railway Engineering Science》 EI 2024年第1期36-58,共23页
Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a ... Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a novel slab trackform for high-speed railways is investigated using three-dimensional finite element modelling in Abaqus.It is then compared to the performance of a ballasted track.First,slab and ballasted track models are developed to replicate the full-scale testing of track sections.Once the models are calibrated with the experimental results,the novel slab model is developed and compared against the calibrated slab track results.The slab and ballasted track models are then extended to create linear dynamic models,considering the track geodynamics,and simulating train passages at various speeds,for which the Ledsgard documented case was used to validate the models.Trains travelling at low and high speeds are analysed to investigate the track deflections and the wave propagation in the soil,considering the issues associated with critical speeds.Various train loading methods are discussed,and the most practical approach is retained and described.Moreover,correlations are made between the geotechnical parameters of modern high-speed rail and conventional standards.It is found that considering the same ground condition,the slab track deflections are considerably smaller than those of the ballasted track at high speeds,while they show similar behaviour at low speeds. 展开更多
关键词 High-speed railways Slab track New ballastless track Ballasted track Critical speeds Finite element modelling Calibration of numerical models
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Counting of alpha particle tracks on imaging plate based on a convolutional neural network 被引量:1
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作者 Feng-Di Qin Han-Yu Luo +5 位作者 Zheng-Zhong He Ke-Jun Lu Chuan-Gao Wang Meng-Meng Wu Zhong-Kai Fan Jian Shan 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第3期52-63,共12页
Imaging plates are widely used to detect alpha particles to track information,and the number of alpha particle tracks is affected by the overlapping and fading effects of the track information.In this study,an experim... Imaging plates are widely used to detect alpha particles to track information,and the number of alpha particle tracks is affected by the overlapping and fading effects of the track information.In this study,an experiment and a simulation were used to calibrate the efficiency parameter of an imaging plate,which was used to calculate the grayscale.Images were created by using grayscale,which trained the convolutional neural network to count the alpha tracks.The results demonstrated that the trained convolutional neural network can evaluate the alpha track counts based on the source and background images with a wider linear range,which was unaffected by the overlapping effect.The alpha track counts were unaffected by the fading effect within 60 min,where the calibrated formula for the fading effect was analyzed for 132.7 min.The detection efficiency of the trained convolutional neural network for inhomogeneous ^(241)Am sources(2π emission)was 0.6050±0.0399,whereas the efficiency curve of the photo-stimulated luminescence method was lower than that of the trained convolutional neural network. 展开更多
关键词 Imaging plate Convolutional neural network Alpha tracks counting
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Stress distribution in roadbeds of slab tracks with longitudinal discontinuities 被引量:1
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作者 Qingzhi Ye Qiang Luo +2 位作者 Guishuai Feng Tengfei Wang Hongwei Xie 《Railway Engineering Science》 2023年第1期61-74,共14页
Stress concentration occurs in the foundations of railway tracks where discontinuous components are located.The exacerbated stress under the expansion joints in slab tracks may trigger foundation failures such as mud ... Stress concentration occurs in the foundations of railway tracks where discontinuous components are located.The exacerbated stress under the expansion joints in slab tracks may trigger foundation failures such as mud pumping.Although the higher stress due to the discontinuities of track structures has been discussed in past studies,few focused on the stress response of roadbeds in slab tracks and quantitatively characterized the stress pattern.In this paper,we performed a dynamic finite element analysis of a track-formation system,incorporating expansion joints as primary longitudinal discontinuities.The configurations of CRTS Ⅲ slab tracks and the contact conditions between concrete layers were considered.Numerical results show that longitudinal influencing length of induced stress on roadbed under wheel load relates to the contact conditions between concrete layers,increasing nonlinearly at a larger coefficient of friction.Given a measured coefficient of friction of 0.7,the calculated longitudinal influencing length(9.0 m) matches with field data.The longitudinal influencing length is not affected with the increasing velocity.As stress concentration arises with expansion joints,the worstcase scenario emerges when double-axle loads are exerted immediately above the expansion joints between concrete bases.A stress concentration factor Cvon the roadbed is proposed;it increases with the increasing velocity,changing from 1.33 to 1.52 at velocities between 5 and 400 km/h.The stress distribution on roadbeds transforms from a trapezoid pattern at continuous sections to a triangle pattern at points with longitudinal discontinuities.An explicit expression is finally proposed for the stress pattern on roadbed under expansion joints.Although structural discontinuities induce stress raiser,the extent of concentration is mitigated with increasing depth at different velocity levels. 展开更多
关键词 Ballastless track Expansion joint Dynamic stress ROADBED Stress distribution
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Influence of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on interannual variability of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks
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作者 Zhaohua WANG Dongliang ZHAO +1 位作者 Kejian WU Lian XIE 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期2060-2076,共17页
Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their i... Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their inter-annual spatial and temporal variability.Then,the relationships between each empirical orthogonal function(EOF)mode and the typhoon count,typhoon landfall count,track pattern,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover(QXPSC)were examined,and the possible physical mechanisms implied by the statistical relationship were explored.The results show the QXPSC significantly affected the surface-atmosphere heat exchange through snow cover(SC)level,then changed the East Asian summer monsoon regional circulation pattern,influenced the subtropical high-pressure system strength and location,and ultimately affected the WNP TCs track patterns and thus changed their landfall locations. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover track pattern landfall location
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Temperature field test and prediction using a GA-BP neural network for CRTS Ⅱ slab tracks
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作者 Dan Liu Chengguang Su +2 位作者 Rongshan Yang Juanjuan Ren Xueyi Liu 《Railway Engineering Science》 2023年第4期381-395,共15页
The CRTS Ⅱ slab track, which is connected in a longitudinal direction, is one of the main ballastless tracks in China, with approximately 7365 km of operational track. Temperature loading is a very vital factor leadi... The CRTS Ⅱ slab track, which is connected in a longitudinal direction, is one of the main ballastless tracks in China, with approximately 7365 km of operational track. Temperature loading is a very vital factor leading to slab track damages such as warping and cracking. While existing research on temperature distribution rests on either site tests in special environments or theoretical analysis, the long-term temperature field characteristics are not clear. Therefore, a long-term temperature field test for the CRTS Ⅱ slab track on bridge-subgrade transition section was conducted to analyze the temperature field. A GA-BP(genetic algorithm optimized back propagation) neural network was trained on the test data to predict the temperature field. The vertical and lateral temperature distributions in four typical days were carried out. We found that the temperature along the track was distributed in a nonlinear manner. This was particularly distinct in the vertical direction for depths of less than 300 mm. The highest and lowest daily temperatures and the daily range of the temperature were analyzed. With the increasing depth, the daily highest temperatures and range of the temperature were smaller, the daily lowest temperatures were higher, and the time corresponding to this peak value appeared later in the day. Both the highest and lowest daily temperature could be predicted using the GA-BP neural network, though the accuracy in predicting the highest temperature was higher than that in predicting the lowest temperature. 展开更多
关键词 Ballastless track Long-term test Temperature distribution Correlation analysis Neural network
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Investigation on the Effect of the Tension Degree of Tracks on the Adsorption Performance of Tracked Wall Climbing Robot
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作者 Shun Xiao Guangping He +3 位作者 Jiejian Di Jie Zhang Zhonghai Zhang Lin Zhou 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 CAS 2023年第1期52-60,共9页
In this paper,a new tracked wall climbing robot with permanent magnetic units is designed,and the tension degree of robot’s tracks is found to have a significant impact on the robot’s adsorption performance.This tra... In this paper,a new tracked wall climbing robot with permanent magnetic units is designed,and the tension degree of robot’s tracks is found to have a significant impact on the robot’s adsorption performance.This tracked wall climbing robot is a remotely controlled robot.All the control devices can be installed on the robot body.All the permanent magnetic units are arranged on the light track.In order to illustrate the relationship between the tension degree and the adsorption performance,when absorbed on the vertical surface and 180⁃degree inverted surface,the static force analysis of the robot is presented.Finally,experiments were demonstrated to prove that higher tension degree of tracks can make adsorption performance better. 展开更多
关键词 permanent magnetic adsorption TRACK tension degree wall climbing robot
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Comparative Alpha Tracks Counting Using an Optical Microscope and a Spark Counter
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作者 Dabo S. I. Agba Ponaho Kezo Issa Konaté 《Detection》 2023年第2期7-18,共12页
In the metrology of radon, an environmental lung carcinogen, the integrated measurements necessary for epidemiological studies are made very often using the tracks detector LR 115 type 2. For dosimetric analysis, the ... In the metrology of radon, an environmental lung carcinogen, the integrated measurements necessary for epidemiological studies are made very often using the tracks detector LR 115 type 2. For dosimetric analysis, the etched tracks from radon alpha particles on this detector are usually counted by means of an optical microscope or a spark counter. An optimal reading of the track densities which must be converted into radon concentrations, can’t be done without a good mastery of the mode of operation and use of these devices. Furthermore, investigations to know as to whether or not each of those can be used to determine radon concentration are necessary. These are the objectives of the present work in which LR 115 samples exposed to radon for at least 3 months, were chemically developed under standard conditions and read. The track densities obtained with the microscope are very much higher than those of the counter for each sample. These results are consistent with those published by other authors. However, each of these devices can be used interchangeably for alpha tracks counting, as both provide radon concentrations with a very good linear correlation coefficient of 0.95 taking into account their respective calibration factors for the reading of this detector. In addition, the saturation phenomenon for the spark counter reading of LR 115 detector occurs beyond 11,000 tr/cm<sup>2</sup>, a density never reached during our environmental radon measurements. 展开更多
关键词 LR 115 Detector Optical Microscope Spark Counter Alpha Track Density Calibration Factor Radon Concentration
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Some Trials of Typical Typhoon Tracks Using the Adjoint Method
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作者 蔡其发 黄思训 +1 位作者 项杰 兰伟仁 《Marine Science Bulletin》 CAS 2006年第2期75-82,共8页
In this paper, the adjoint method is applied to the statistical-dynamic model (SD-90) for the prediction of typhoon tracks along with the regularization thinking and optimal control techniques. The adjoint model and... In this paper, the adjoint method is applied to the statistical-dynamic model (SD-90) for the prediction of typhoon tracks along with the regularization thinking and optimal control techniques. The adjoint model and the gradient of objective function are deduced with the continual model respectively. For 4 typical typhoons, the forces and the initial velocity can be retrieved well, and the tracks of these typhoons are accurately fitted for an appropriate regularization parameter and optimal control parameter. 展开更多
关键词 typhoon tracks variational assimilation regularization methods optimal control
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交际翻译视角下小说英译的策略选择——以Tracks in the Snowy Forest为例
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作者 高巍 吴亚琼 《牡丹江大学学报》 2017年第9期134-136,共3页
Peter Newmark提出的交际翻译论强调以读者为中心,重视译文对目的语读者所产生的效果,也为文学翻译研究提供了新的视角。本文从交际翻译的角度出发,以《林海雪原》英译本Tracks in the Snowy Forest为例,从归化和意译两个翻译策略入手,... Peter Newmark提出的交际翻译论强调以读者为中心,重视译文对目的语读者所产生的效果,也为文学翻译研究提供了新的视角。本文从交际翻译的角度出发,以《林海雪原》英译本Tracks in the Snowy Forest为例,从归化和意译两个翻译策略入手,探讨交际翻译对小说类文学作品英译的影响。 展开更多
关键词 tracks in the SNOWY FOREST 交际翻译 归化 意译
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Early Jurassic basal sauropodomorpha dominated tracks from Guizhou, China: Morphology, ethology, and paleoenvironment 被引量:9
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作者 Lida Xing Martin G. Lockley +4 位作者 Dongjie Tang Hendrik Klein Guangzhao Peng Yong Ye Baoqiao Hao 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第1期229-240,共12页
The newly discovered large(350 m^2) Yantan dinosaur tracksite, in the Lower Jurassic Ziliujing Formation of Guizhou Province, China, reveals at least 250 footprints of which ~97 can be resolved into trackways of sauro... The newly discovered large(350 m^2) Yantan dinosaur tracksite, in the Lower Jurassic Ziliujing Formation of Guizhou Province, China, reveals at least 250 footprints of which ~97 can be resolved into trackways of sauropodomorphs. All the trackways are sub parallel likely indicating gregarious behavior. One theropod track(cf. Grallator) was recorded. The sauropodomorph tracks predominantly represent quadrupedal progression(Morphotype A), and footprint morphology is similar to the ichnospecies Liujianpusshunan, characterized by outward pes rotation. Three trackways indicate bipedal progression, and two of these(Morphotype B) indicate inward pes rotation, accompanied by elongate pes digit scratch marks. For the latter phenomenon three possible scenarios are discussed:(1) significant rotation changes accompanying changes in gait,(2) swimming behavior,(3) formation of undertracks.Sedimentological evidence indicates the tracks were made on a linguloid rippled, muddy, immature sandstone substrate characterized by significant differences in substrate consistency across the trackbearing surface. Microbially induced sedimentary structures(MISS) characterized by distinctive wrinkle marks indicate a stressed, probably semi-arid, paleoenvironment that was not conducive to habitation by invertebrate organisms. This is consistent with other evidence that Lower Jurassic sauropodomorph tracks are often associated with semi-arid paleoenvironments. 展开更多
关键词 Sauropodomorph tracks Ziliujing formation Lower JURASSIC GUIZHOU Province
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Sand-dust storms in China: temporal-spatial distribution and tracks of source lands 被引量:11
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作者 QIU Xin-fa1, ZENG Yan2, MIAO Qi-long2 (1. Urban & Resource Department, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210009, China 2. Department of Environmental Science, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China) 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2001年第3期253-260,共9页
Sand-dust storm is a special natural disaster that frequently occurs in deserts and their surrounding areas. With the data published onSurface Meteorological Monthly Bulletin andSurface Chart during 1971–1996, the te... Sand-dust storm is a special natural disaster that frequently occurs in deserts and their surrounding areas. With the data published onSurface Meteorological Monthly Bulletin andSurface Chart during 1971–1996, the temporal-spatial distribution and annual variation of sand-dust storms are analyzed on the basis of the case study of atmospheric processes. Furthermore, the tracks and source areas of sand-dust storms are determined with the aid of GIS. The results show that except some parts of Qinghai Province and Inner Mongolia as well as Beijing, sand-dust storms decrease apparently in time and space in recent decades in China. Sand-dust storms occur most frequently in spring, especially in April. According to their source areas, sand-dust storms are classified into two types, i.e., the inner-source and outer-source sand-dust storms. Most of the outer-source sand-dust storms move along the north and west tracks. The north-track outer-source sand-dust storms always intrude into China across the Sino-Mongolian border from Hami, a city in the eastern part ofXinjiang, to Xilin Gol, a league in Inner Mongolia, while the west-track ones intrude into China from both southern and northern Xinjiang. The source lands of inner-source sand-dust storms concentrate in the Taklimakan Desert and its surrounding areas in southern Xinjiang, southern part of the Junggar Basin in north of Xinjiang, the Hexi Corridor in western Gansu Province, the dry deserts of Inner Mongolia and the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai. 展开更多
关键词 sand-dust storm temporal-spatial distribution tracks source lands
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An Important Ornithischian Tracksite in the Early Jurassic of the Shenmu Region,Shaanxi,China 被引量:11
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作者 LI Jianjun Martin G.LOCKLEY +3 位作者 ZHANG Yuguang HU Songmei MATSUKAWA Masaki BAI Zhiqiang 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第1期1-10,共10页
A large track site with multiple, well-preserved trackways of an Early Jurassic quadrupedal ornithischian dinosaur is the first report of Moyenisauripus-like trackways from Asia, herein named Shenmuichnus youngteilhar... A large track site with multiple, well-preserved trackways of an Early Jurassic quadrupedal ornithischian dinosaur is the first report of Moyenisauripus-like trackways from Asia, herein named Shenmuichnus youngteilhardorum. The tracks occur in a clastic fluvial sequence in the Fuxian Formation in Shenmu County, Shaanxi Province, which is in the same general region as the discovery site of Sinoichnites, the first dinosaur track reported from China. Based on size and morphology, it is likely that Sinoichnites, which is now lost, also represents an ornithischian. The Shenmuichnus youngteilhardorum trackways show two modes of preservation: the first representing deeper tracks, with sediment rims, results in Deltapodus-like tracks, with indistinct pes digit traces and sub-circular manus traces, the second produces Moyenosauripus-like tracks, with clear tridactyl and pentadactyl digit traces in the pes and manus respectively. Thus the Shenmu trackways play a key role in resolving globally significant ichnotaxonomic problems surrounding the nomenclature of Sinoichnites, Moyenosauripus, Deltapodus and other named (Ravatichnus) and unnamed trackways from Asia, Africa and Europe. In addition they shed important light on the paleogeographical and paleoecological distribution of quadrupedal ornithischians in the Early Mesozoic. The track site has been the focus of a major excavation to transfer the trackways from their original remote location to the new Shenmu Museum, in Shenmu City. Other tracksites in the area which reveal Anomoepus, Grallator and the Deltapodus morphotype, together with Shenmuichnus and plant fossil evidence, suggest an Early Jurassic age for the tracksite. 展开更多
关键词 dinosaur tracks Early Jurasic Shenmu SHAANXI
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Traditional Chinese surgical treatment for anal fistulae with secondary tracks and abscess 被引量:8
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作者 Chen Wang Jin-Gen Lu +3 位作者 Yong-Qing Cao Yi-Bo Yao Xiu-Tian Guo Hao-Qiang Yin 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第40期5702-5708,共7页
AIM:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of traditional Chinese surgical treatment for anal fistulae with secondary tracks and abscess.METHODS:Sixty patients with intersphincteric or transsphincteric anal fistulas with... AIM:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of traditional Chinese surgical treatment for anal fistulae with secondary tracks and abscess.METHODS:Sixty patients with intersphincteric or transsphincteric anal fistulas with secondary tracks and abscess were randomly divided into study group [suture dragging combined with pad compression(SDPC)] and control group [fistulotomy(FSLT)].In the SDPC group,the internal opening was excised and incisions at external openings were made for drainage.Silk sutures were put through every two incisions and knotted in loose state.The suture dragging process started from the first day after surgery and the pad compression process started when all sutures were removed as wound tissue became fresh and without discharge.In the FSLT group,the internal opening and all tracts were laid open and cleaned by normal saline postoperatively till all wounds healed.The time of healing,postoperative pain score(visual analogue scale),recurrence rate,patient satisfaction,incontinence evaluation and anorectal manometry before and after the treatment were examined.RESULTS:There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding age,gender and fistulae type.The time of healing was significantly shorter(24.33 d in SDPC vs 31.57 d in FSLT,P < 0.01) and the patient satisfaction score at 1 mo postoperative followup was significantly higher in the SDPC group(4.07 in SDPC vs 3.37 in FSLT,P < 0.05).The mean maximal postoperative pain scores were 5.83 ± 2.5 in SDPC vs 6.37 ± 2.33 in FSLT and the recurrence rates were 3.33 in SDPC vs 0 in FSLT.None of the patients in the two groups experienced liquid and solid fecal incontinence and lifestyle alteration postoperatively.The Wexner score after treatment of intersphincter fistulae were 0.17 ± 0.41 in SDPC vs 0.40 ± 0.89 in FSLT and transsphincter fistulae were 0.13 ± 0.45 in SDPC vs 0.56 ± 1.35 in FSLT.The maximal squeeze pressure and resting pressure declined after treatment in both groups.The maximal anal squeeze pressures after treatment were reduced(23.17 ± 3.73 Kpa in SDPC vs 22.74 ± 4.47 Kpa in FSLT) and so did the resting pressures(12.36 ± 2.15 Kpa in SDPC vs 11.71 ± 1.87 Kpa in FSLT),but there were neither significant differences between the two groups and nor significant differences before or after treatment.CONCLUSION:Traditional Chinese surgical treatment SDPC for anal fistulae with secondary tracks and abscess is safe,effective and less invasive. 展开更多
关键词 Traditional Chinese surgical treatment Su- ture dragging Pad compression Anal fistulae Second-ary tracks and abscess
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Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data 被引量:2
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作者 Quanjia ZHONG Lifeng ZHANG +2 位作者 Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING Jie FENG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第12期1491-1504,共14页
In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typ... In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h.The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,respectively.The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related.The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS.Furthermore,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available.Further work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks. 展开更多
关键词 PREDICTABILITY TROPICAL CYCLONE tracks nonlinear local LYAPUNOV EXPONENT
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A nowcasting model for the prediction of typhoon tracks based on a long short term memory neural network 被引量:21
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作者 GAO Song ZHAO Peng +5 位作者 PAN Bin LI Yaru ZHOU Min XU Jiangling ZHONG Shan SHI Zhenwei 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期8-12,共5页
It is of vital importance to reduce injuries and economic losses by accurate forecasts of typhoon tracks. A huge amount of typhoon observations have been accumulated by the meteorological department, however, they are... It is of vital importance to reduce injuries and economic losses by accurate forecasts of typhoon tracks. A huge amount of typhoon observations have been accumulated by the meteorological department, however, they are yet to be adequately utilized. It is an effective method to employ machine learning to perform forecasts. A long short term memory(LSTM) neural network is trained based on the typhoon observations during 1949–2011 in China's Mainland, combined with big data and data mining technologies, and a forecast model based on machine learning for the prediction of typhoon tracks is developed. The results show that the employed algorithm produces desirable 6–24 h nowcasting of typhoon tracks with an improved precision. 展开更多
关键词 typhoon tracks machine learning LSTM big data
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Sensitivity of Cyclone Tracks to the Initial Moisture Distribution:A Moist Potential Vorticity Perspective 被引量:3
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作者 Zuohao CAO Da-Lin ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第6期807-820,共14页
In this study, the characteristics of moist potential vorticity (MPV) in the vicinity of a surface cyclone center and their physical processes axe investigated. A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is... In this study, the characteristics of moist potential vorticity (MPV) in the vicinity of a surface cyclone center and their physical processes axe investigated. A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is then used to examine the relationship between the cyclone tracks and negative MPV (NMPV) using numerical simulations of the life cycle of an extratropical cyclone. It is shown that the MPV approach developed herein, i.e., by tracing the peak NMPV, can be used to help trace surface cyclones during their development and mature stages. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of different initial moisture fields on the effectiveness of the MPV approach. It is found that the lifetime of NMPV depends mainly on the initial moisture field, the magnitude of condensational heating, and the advection of NMPV. When NMPV moves into a saturated environment at or near a cyclone center, it can trace better the evolution of the surface cyclone due to the conservative property of MPV. It is also shown that the NMPV generation is closely associated with the coupling of large potential temperature and moisture gradients as a result of frontogenesis processes. Analyses indicate that condensation, confluence and tilting play important but different roles in determining the NMPV generation. NMPV is generated mainly through the changes in the strength of baroclinicity and in the direction of the moisture gradient due to moist and/or dry air mass intrusion into the baroclinic zone. 展开更多
关键词 cyclone tracks moist potential vorticity mid-latitude cyclones
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K-MEANS CLUSTERING FOR CLASSIFICATION OF THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS 被引量:3
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作者 余锦华 郑颖青 +2 位作者 吴启树 林金凎 龚振彬 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第2期127-135,共9页
Based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) best-track dataset between 1965 and 2009 and the characteristic parameters including tropical cyclone(TC) position,intensity,path length and direction,a method for objec... Based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) best-track dataset between 1965 and 2009 and the characteristic parameters including tropical cyclone(TC) position,intensity,path length and direction,a method for objective classification of the Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks is established by using k-means Clustering.The TC lifespan,energy,active season and landfall probability of seven clusters of tropical cyclone tracks are comparatively analyzed.The characteristics of these parameters are quite different among different tropical cyclone track clusters.From the trend of the past two decades,the frequency of the western recurving cluster(accounting for 21.3% of the total) increased,and the lifespan elongated slightly,which differs from the other clusters.The annual variation of the Power Dissipation Index(PDI) of most clusters mainly depended on the TC intensity and frequency.However,the annual variation of the PDI in the northwestern moving then recurving cluster and the pelagic west-northwest moving cluster mainly depended on the frequency. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone classification of tracks K-means clustering character of cluster
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Two Modes and Their Seasonal and Interannual Variation of the Baroclinic Waves/Storm Tracks over the Wintertime North Pacific 被引量:1
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作者 JIANG Yuxin TAN Benkui 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第9期1244-1254,共11页
In this study,a newly developed method,termed moving empirical orthogonal function analysis(MEOF),is applied to the study of midlatitude baroclinic waves over the wintertime North Pacific from 1979 to 2009.It is sho... In this study,a newly developed method,termed moving empirical orthogonal function analysis(MEOF),is applied to the study of midlatitude baroclinic waves over the wintertime North Pacific from 1979 to 2009.It is shown that when the daily,high-pass filtered(2–10 days) meridional wind at 250 h Pa is chosen as the variable of the MEOF analysis,typical features of baroclinic waves/storm tracks over the wintertime North Pacific can be well described by this method.It is found that the first two leading modes of the MEOF analysis,MEOF1 and MEOF2,assume quite different patterns.MEOF1 takes the form of a single wave train running in the east–west direction along 40°N,while MEOF2 is a double wave train pattern running in the east–west direction along 50°N and 30°N,respectively.The shift composites of various anomalous fields based on MEOF1 and MEOF2 assume typical baroclinic wave features.MEOF1 represents a primary storm track pulsing with an intrinsic time scale of two days.It shows significant "midwinter suppression" and apparent interannual variability.It is stronger after the mid-1990 s than before the mid-1990 s.MEOF2 represents a double-branch storm track,also with an intrinsic time scale of approximately two days,running along 50°N and 30°N,respectively.It shows no apparent seasonal variation,but its interannual and decadal variation is quite clear.It oscillates with larger amplitude and longer periods after the mid-1990 s than before the mid-1990 s,and is heavily modulated by El Ni n°o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). 展开更多
关键词 baroclinic waves Pacific storm tracks MEOF analysis ENSO
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Interannual and Decadal Variability of the North Pacific Blocking and Its Relationship to SST, Teleconnection and Storm Tracks 被引量:1
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作者 黄菲 周发琇 钱筱丹 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2002年第5期807-820,共14页
Climalological features of mid-latitude blocking occurring over the North Pacific Ocean during 52 winters (December to February) of 1948/1949-1999/2000 are statistically analyzed based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data. S... Climalological features of mid-latitude blocking occurring over the North Pacific Ocean during 52 winters (December to February) of 1948/1949-1999/2000 are statistically analyzed based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data. Significant interannual variation with a period of about 3-7 years as well as decadal variability is found by wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis. A decreasing trend of the 2-7 year bandscale-averaged variance occurs throughout the 52 years and an abrupt shift from a higher state to a lower state during the 1970s is also found, which suggests an interdecadal variation of the North Pacific blocking. The possible relationship between the variability of blocking and sea surface temperature (SST), storm tracks and teleconnection are shown using composite analysis. In strong blocking anomaly winter (SBW), the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa exhibits a typical PNA (Pacific-North American)-like wave-train pattern in the North Pacific. The storm tracks, representing the activity of transient eddies, extend northeastward to the western coast of North America along the mid latitudes of about 40°-50°N, with the SST anomaly exhibiting a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) mode at mid-latitude and a La Ni&#241;a-like pattern along the equator. Contrasting features appear in weak blocking anomaly winter (WBW). 展开更多
关键词 north Pacific blocking TELECONNECTION SST anomaly storm tracks
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