Value-Added Trade and Evolution of China's Comparative Advantages

Based on heterogeneity in firm's sales destinations and trade patterns, this paper estimates China's ratio of value-added exports(RVAE) using value-added trade accounting, and discusses the evolution of China's comparative advantages from the perspective of value-added trade. Our research findings suggest that without taking into account heterogeneity in firm's sales destinations and trade patterns,China's RVAE will be overestimated. Conventional gross trade accounting underestimates the export competitiveness of China's labor-intensive and capital intensive sectors, but overestimates the export competitiveness of China's technology-intensive sectors,which leads to a significant reversal of comparative advantages. Conventional gross trade accounting method overestimates the trade surplus of China's manufacturing and technology-intensive sectors with the US by about 60% and 85% respectively.

Export Value-Added of China’s Manufacturing Sector:Estimation and Mechanism Analysis

Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.

Re-Evaluation of China＇s Service Trade Competitiveness： A Global Value Chain Perspective

Based on the Worm Input-Output Database （WIOD）, this paper conducts a forward-linkage decomposition of value-added in trade to estimate China＇s service value-added exports and its service sector＇s international competitiveness during 2000- 2014. Result indicates that during the sample period, China＇s service exports measured by forward-linkage decomposition method accounted for around 35% in its total export. While the value of services exported directly through the service sector accounted for a falling share, the value of services exported through other sectors represented an increasing share. China ranks second in the world in terms of market share of service exports. However, the revealed comparative advantage （RCA） of China＇s service exports and export sophistication remains limited.

Learning by Doing Effect in North South Trade under the Global Value Chains： An Empirical Analysis of Various Industries in the U.S.

This paper studies the division of labor and economic development under global value chains in North South trade by mainly investigating the changes of production hours and cost per unit along with more and more output and increasing trade value in several industries in the U.S., because the U. S. is at the leading position in the division of labor by global value chains. The empirical evidence reveals that more international outsourcing, there will be more detailed division of labor, and the industry unit production time and production cost will show more declining trend year by year. This is consistent with that the global value chains and the outsourcing play more and more important roles in the international division of labor and economic growth in both developed and developing countries, and helps explain the integration of workforce across countries in the global value chains.

Booming or sinking: How does an emission trading scheme affect enterprise value?

Unlike prior research that shows climate policy improves enterprise value,this study reveals the negative im‐pact of emission trading schemes(ETSs)on enterprise value under China’s unique institutional backdrop and identifies the mechanism through which this impact occurs.Data from a sample of 1267 listed companies in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2018 models are analyzed using difference-in-differences(DID)and propensity score matching methods(PSM).The results suggest that ETSs have an average short-term negative impact on enterprise value,which peaks in the second year of the ETS and diminishes from the fourth year.Further analysis reveals that ETSs did not cause significant operating losses for firms but reduced their value through the market response mechanism.ETS enterprises experienced significant declines in their annual stock transaction amounts and in returns on individual shares.This indicates that investors expect ETSs to ad‐versely affect pilot enterprises and accordingly adopt disinvestment strategies.Despite the short-term negative effect,ETSs effectively encourage enterprises to innovate green technologies to mitigate long-term carbon risk.

China's Position in Global Value Chains Compared with the EU,U.S.and Japan

By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.

An Audit of Constraints and Opportunities in Kenya＇s Livestock Export Value Chain

For a long time Kenya has desired to access lucrative export markets for her livestock products. Although this desire matches the growing global demand for livestock products and increasing interest in livestock products from Kenya by livestock deficient countries, Kenya has not been able to meet the expressed demand. The reasons for this failure have not been sufficiently documented. This study used the value chain approach to assess and document the factors that limit Kenya＇s export trade in livestock. Questionnaire interviews were undertaken with livestock producers, traders, processors and importers. Producers cited livestock diseases, poor roads, drought, livestock theft and insecurity as the main constraints to livestock supply. Livestock traders mentioned high cost and delays in obtaining movement permits, rent-seeking and disturbance by government officials along the stock routes as some of the constraints. Processors on the other hand mentioned Kenya＇s failure to meet the international sanitary requirements. The only importer interviewed indicated that trade restrictions, Kenya＇s inability to control livestock diseases and distance were the main constraints to increased livestock trade with Kenya. Stakeholders in Kenya＇s livestock export value chain should address these and other constraints in order to revitalize this vital sector.

Escaping Dependency and Trade War:China and the US

Marxist political economy provides a perspective for grasping the root cause of the China-US trade war.The international relations of production,which stem from the international division of labor,shape the distribution of international economic interests and the political status of countries.Traditionally,developing countries have been subjected to the“periphery”in the international division of labor.In the new global value chain,developing countries have remained in a subordinate position characterized by“technological-market”dependence.To achieve the goal of building a strong modern nation,China must escape the“technological-market”dependence.Yet China’s efforts and achievements in escaping dependent development are deemed as a threat to US vested interests in the international markets.To preserve the economic foundation of its hegemony,the US has resorted to a trade war to contain China’s development.

Trade Benefits and Environmental Costs of GVCS: A Case Study of the BRICS

As the international trading system has developed with the division of Global value Chains (GVCS), the export trade of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) has grown rapidly. The resulting growth of carbon emissions has drawn wide attention from the international community, necessitating the comparison of the trade benefits and environmental costs of the BRICS participation in GVCS. Based on the Eora database, this paper constructs a decomposition framework for the calculation of export value-added and embodied carbon, based on a multi-region input-output (MRIO) model. The trade benefits and environmental costs paid by the BRICS’ total exports from 1990 to 2015 were measured and the imbalance was analyzed, along with the causes. The results show that the main value-added and carbon embodied in the BRICS’ exports originate from their own countries, and the domestic value-added content of the BRICS’ exports decreased while the foreign value-added content increased.

数字经济赋能零售企业国际化:机制、制约与对策

中国零售企业依托数字技术加快国际化,融入或主导构建全球供应链的探索有助于服务构建新发展格局。从价值共创的理论视角看,数字经济赋能零售企业国际化的机制包括与消费者、供应商和同业企业的价值共创。当前数字经济赋能中国零售企业国际化的效应已初步显现,但仍处于起步阶段,存在采购国际化中数字经济赋能主体范围与环节有限、店铺运营国际化尚未形成规模效应、专业技能国际转移面临全球数字贸易规则博弈带来的不确定性等问题与制约。文章建议引导零售企业协同多方主体推进采购国际化,政策赋能推动零售企业店铺运营国际化,提升数字话语权为零售专业技能国际转移护航,并在数字“一带一路”框架下推进零售企业国际化。

“一带一路”制造业增加值贸易网络对中国企业对外直接投资的影响研究

全球价值链重构趋势下,“一带一路”贸易网络日益紧密,东道国贸易网络地位对对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响逐渐显现,成为吸引中国企业“走出去”的新区位优势。本文基于“一带一路”共建国家制造业的投入产出数据构建增加值贸易网络,结合2009—2019年A股上市公司、BvD-Zephyr以及fDi Markets数据,考察东道国贸易网络地位对中国企业OFDI的影响。研究发现:“一带一路”东道国制造业增加值贸易网络地位的提升,对中国企业OFDI具有显著的促进作用,且上述影响在发达国家、制度风险较低及开设境外园区的东道国更强,并且进一步激发了中国民营企业、初始投资企业“走出去”开展跨国并购的积极性。此外,中国企业OFDI的结构得以优化,投资行业依托贸易网络呈现阶梯状分布。机制分析表明,中间品进口激励效应、投资风险规避效应和全球价值链嵌入效应是其重要传导渠道。本文为中国企业面向“一带一路”共建国家的投资策略制定提供有益参考,对推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展具有重要现实意义。

RCEP生效对国际服务贸易影响作用研究——基于增加值贸易视角

RCEP作为当前世界范围内规模最大、影响范围最广的区域自由贸易体系,在服务贸易方面做出了高水平的开放承诺,它是中国构建高标准自由贸易区网络进程中的重要抓手。以1995-2018年全球范围内66个国家服务部门的双边出口数据为样本,运用结构引力模型和泊松拟极大似然估计方法,实证研究了RCEP对服务部门增加值贸易以及福利的影响作用。反事实模拟分析结果表明,RCEP对成员国服务部门总出口和国内增加值出口均有显著的促进作用,而非成员国将在整体上受损;RCEP对一国福利的影响较小,对一国出口的影响较大;对中国而言,RCEP将大幅提高中国对日本的服务部门总出口和国内增加值出口。此外,将RCEP与CPTPP进行比较发现,RCEP对我国服务部门增加值贸易的正向影响幅度小于CPTPP。

农业全球价值链嵌入、贸易成本与增加值贸易

粮食安全是“国之大者”,农产品贸易是保障粮食安全的“稳压器”。农业全球价值链在农产品贸易过程中加速形成,参与全球价值链分工有助于改善对先进技术和知识的获取,推动农业向高附加值环节升级。文章运用双向固定效应模型,选择OECD AMNE 2023版数据库中76个经济体为样本,探究了农业全球价值链参与度和增加值贸易收益的相关性。研究发现:农业全球价值链前向和后向参与度均能促进农业增加值贸易收益增长;机制检验表明,全球价值链参与度可以通过降低贸易成本来促进增加值贸易收益增长;异质性检验表明,这一影响对发展中经济体尤为明显。为此,我国应积极融入农业全球价值链,进一步扩大农业开放、优化贸易环境和保障要素供给,以提高增加值贸易收益。

考虑条件风险价值和阶梯碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度

为进一步提升综合能源系统环境效益,减少新能源出力不确定性所带来的潜在风险,提出了计及条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)以及阶梯碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度模型。考虑到系统风电和光伏出力不确定性可能带来的影响,采用条件风险价值量度不确定性带来的潜在风险,并将碳捕获技术、电转气设备以及阶梯式碳交易机制引入系统调度模型,构建了综合考虑系统运行成本和碳交易成本的优化调度目标函数,由于所建立模型为混合整数规划问题,采用CPLEX求解器进行求解,设置4种场景进行验证分析,算例表明所提模型可有效减少二氧化碳排放,在兼顾经济性和环境性的同时引入CVaR,可避免由于忽略风光不确定性所带来的较为乐观的调度结果,使系统最终调度结果更为合理。

数据要素交易多边平台研究:现状、进路与框架

为响应国家政策,构建统一完善的数据要素流通交易市场,对当前数据要素的流通交易过程进行梳理分析,为数据要素平台的构建提供思路,对推进我国数据要素市场化配置与数字经济发展具有战略意义。通过案例分析与文献梳理分析了数据要素交易多边市场中的主体及其之间的逻辑关系,总结市场现状中的痛点问题,并基于价值链理论以及社会技术系统理论提出了数据要素交易多边平台的突破路径以及研究框架,以期为数据要素流通交易市场建设提供参考路径。

数字贸易对制造业全球价值链地位的影响研究——基于跨国面板数据的经验证据

基于2007-2020年54个国家的跨国面板数据,采用固定效应模型和面板门槛模型,实证检验了数字贸易发展对一国制造业全球价值链地位的影响。研究发现,数字贸易与制造业全球价值链地位之间存在“先负后正”的U型关系,即在数字贸易发展初期,其对制造业全球价值链地位会产生一定的抑制作用;超过一定门槛值后,这种抑制作用会慢慢演变成促进作用。研发强度和贸易开放度对数字贸易提升国家制造业全球价值链地位起到正向调节作用;进一步的异质性检验发现,数字贸易对发达国家制造业全球价值链地位具有更大的提升作用。据此,文章提出应加大数字贸易发展、重视研发投入力度、推进高水平贸易开放等对策建议。

数据要素市场化进程中的数据流通与价值创造——基于上海数据交易所的案例研究

数据要素市场化是数字经济发展的重要方向,也是推动数字化转型和创新的重要手段。数据要素市场化进程中数据流通是数据要素市场化的基础和前提,价值创造是数据要素市场化的目的和结果。作为数据要素流通的主要平台和数据价值实现的主要渠道,数据交易平台起着至关重要的作用。数据要素市场仍存在数据确权、估值定价、资源配置和风险防控等问题,基于上海数据交易所案例经验,提出数据要素市场化发展的对策建议。

区域贸易协定中竞争政策规则对出口国内增加值的影响研究

以64个国家1995—2017年141个区域贸易协定为样本,在测度竞争政策规则深度的基础上,实证考察其对出口国内增加值的影响。研究结果表明:竞争政策规则的强化有助于提升缔约方出口国内增加值。该结果经过稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析结果表明,缔约方制度质量加强了竞争政策规则对出口国内增加值的促进作用,但区域贸易协定灵活度会阻碍该促进作用。区分条款发现,横向原则与国有企业条款可以促进出口国内增加值;区分国别发现,竞争政策规则对不同经济发展水平国家出口国内增加值存在异质性影响。进一步分析发现,竞争政策规则的强化对第三方国家存在溢出效应。因此,中国应有意识地强化竞争政策的基础性地位,合理设计竞争政策条款并逐步提升执行度,打造更为开放透明、公平竞争的市场环境。

基于扎根理论的政府开放数据价值影响因素研究

[目的/意义]政府开放数据价值是数字经济情境下个体数据行为嬗变的反馈性标志。从政府开放数据使用者视角识别其价值要素,对于促进政府数据管理水平,提升数据交易常态化具有理论和实践意义。[方法/过程]利用会议、访谈与网络数据获取原始资料,结合扎根理论,构建“三维—多层”的数据价值影响因素模型,涵盖121个初始概念、30项范畴和9项主范畴,各领域受访者共33位。[结果/结论]个体感知数据价值影响因素主要涉及需求、进路、市场化三个维度,综合考察各项主范畴,针对数据价值的内在关联以及外部机制,可以提炼出直接、间接、跨层、双元4种关系结构。这个过程在理论上弥补了传统政务体系下政府开放数据与个体需求二元割裂之不足,延展了政府开放数据的价值使用行为与价值释放路径。

价值观贸易泛起:内涵、缘起与对策

百年大变局加速演进期,中美大国竞争进入新阶段,全球贸易治理体系生变,全球化遭遇逆流,价值观贸易还魂。美国试图以美式价值观来界定和塑造中美经贸事务,以整体国家价值观来区分“你我”、整合盟伴,推进“友岸外包”“价值观同盟”“小院高墙”等形态,意图打造基于价值观的产业链,重构对华新竞争优势,已成为排他性贸易政策新的形态。价值观贸易可溯至美西方以“自由、民主和人权”为核心的西方主流意识形态,是“普世价值”的经济性延伸。价值观贸易泛起既缘于中美价值观分歧、制度差异、双方认知转变与战略竞争升级,又因美国内部政治分裂与社会、文化认同恶化,且是美国对华战略竞争中弥补传统举措乏力、极力凝合全球资源和寻求道义藉端的新政策工具。对此,中国应保持大国战略思维,找寻远离价值观、意识形态领域的中美共情话题,做好中国崛起外宣文章、夯实外宣内功,团结更多力量应对美国“脱钩断链”,以人类命运共同体价值观消弭“普世价值观”。