The Driving Forces of CO2 Emission in China： 2002-2007

This paper provides a computation on both the China＇s aggregate CO2 emission volume and the emission of each sector over the period of 2002-2007, based on the input-output analysis. Further analysis is also given on the various determinants of the change in the emission volume, with the aid of structural decomposition analysis （SDA） based on a residual-free method. Based on the input-output table of China in 2002 and 2007, the merge of sectors and the adjustment of price change have been made during the study. The emissions of carbon dioxide in China increased from 2,887.3 million ton to 5,664.6 million ton during 2002-2007. The average rate of increase is 13.3%, faster than the average rate of gross domestic product （GDP） growth 11.6% slightly. According to the process of SDA, the changes in emission are analyzed in terms of four different factors. Among the four factors studied in the paper, it is found that the change of emission intensity and structure of demand are the main reason of the decrease of emission, while production technology and scale effect increase the emission volume. The paper also finds that although the direct emission intensity decreased during the study period, the total emission intensity increased with the annual rate of 3.8%, which reflects the result of energy policy is not equal in different sectors.

Cross-border E-commerce and China's Exports during the COVID-19 Pandemic

China's exports experienced a rapid recovery after the outbreak of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic.A primary engine was cross-border e-commerce(CBEC)trade,which bucked the downward export trend during the pandemic.By exploring the variation in the number of CBEC comprehensive pilot zones across provinces,we identified the causal impact of CBEC on exports using monthly province-product-destination data for 2019 and 2020.We found strong and robust evidence that CBEC contributed to exports during the pandemic by promoting the expansion of incumbent exports(intensive margin)rather than through the expansion of product categories and exporting partners(extensive margin).Specifically,higher pandemic risk suppressed the role of CBEC at the intensive margin while enhancing it at the extensive margin.Exports to developed countries benefited more from CBEC,both intensively and extensively.Compared with final products,a larger number of intermediate products were exported through CBEC after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Measuring aggregate trade costs and its empirical effects on manufacturing export composition in China

On the basis of measuring the bilateral trade costs between China and 86 trade partners and the aggregate trade costs from 2000 to 2013,this paper takes China’s vertical specialization reality into account,to do an empirical study on the impact of China’s aggregate trade costs on comparative advantages and export share of 17 two-digit ISIC manufacturing industries,and to conduct these types of robust tests in order to eliminate endogeneity bias.The results show that China’s aggregate trade costs are declining,but it is still 1/3 higher than that of developed countries of 10 years ago;bilateral trade costs between China and some countries even rise instead;aggregate trade costs are the determinants,not only of‘global’and‘local’comparative advantages,but also of export share of China’s manufacturing products,and its effect is stronger in industries with higher trade cost intensity.Therefore,we should consider the product composition on trade cost intensity and domestic value-added value(DVAR),and reduce trade costs in order to promote the export of products with higher domestic value-added rate,and to realize the substantial transformation of foreign trade growth mode.

China＇s Bilateral Currency Swap Lines

We study the determinants of China ＇s bilateral local currency swap lines that were established following the recent global finance crisis. It is found that economic factors, political considerations and institutional characteristics, including trade intensity, economic size, strategic partnership, free trade agreements, corruption and stability, affect the decision to sign a swap line agreement. Once a swap line agreement decision is made, the size of the swap line is then mainly affected by trade intensity, economic size and the presence of a free trade agreement. The results are quite robust with respect to the choices of the Heckman two-stage framework or the proportional hazard model. The gravity effect captured by distances between China and its counterparts, if present, is mainly observed during the early part of the sample period under consideration.