Empirical Analysis of Xinjiang's Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Approach

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade posi- tively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade part- nership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's for- eign trade are put forward.

The Impact of Trade Policy Arrangements on China and World Economy in Post-MFA Era

With Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) eliminated on Dec 31, 2004, the debates and concerns on the trade of textile and apparel have been growing. The objective of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative policies on China and World economy after canceling MFA. Based on a general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), study shows that China and World will significantly benefit from further trade liberalization. However, if USA, EU and Canada converted to TBT to restrict import, the gains from eliminating MFA would be largely offset. Based on our analysis, some policy implications are discussed.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

Study of Factors Influencing China-ASEAN Agricultural Product Trade Development in the Context of"the Belt and Road"

This paper reviewed and analyzed the current situations and influencing factors of the bilateral agricultural product trade development in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which has important practical significance for promoting the in-depth development of the free trade area and has guiding significance for precise policy implementation.Based on the status of import and export trade of agricultural products in CAFTA from 2013 to 2017,it constructed a trade gravity model.With the aid of Stata 14.0 software,it explored major factors influencing the development of bilateral agricultural trade from the total amount of agricultural products import and export and Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification,Revision 3(SITC Rev.3)agricultural product classification data.The empirical regression results show that the GDP of ASEAN countries,the ratio of agricultural added value to GDP,and the per capita gross national income(GNI)measured based on the purchasing power parity(PPP)exchange rate have the greatest impact on agricultural product trade in CAFTA in the context of"the Belt and Road"(B&D).Based on empirical research,it came up with recommendations including adjusting the import and export structure of agricultural products,enhancing product competitive advantages,and implementing diversified markets.

Trends and Features of China's Inter-Provincial Trade:1987-2007

With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the evolution of China's inter-provincial trade from1987 to 2007.This paper reaches the following conclusions.First,China's inter-provincial trade has sustained a period of rapid growth.In 2007,the total volume of inter-provincial trade was twice the amount of international trade,with the eastern region accounting for the majority of the inter-provincial trade volume.GDP may have a greater effect on interprovincial trade than geographic distance does.Second,inter-provincial trade maintains a high level of concentration and overlaps with the high concentration of GDP.Third,the inter-provincial trade dependence of Chinese provinces tends to increase,an indication of the growing domestic market integration.Moreover,the eastern region's dependence on inter-provincial trade is higher than the central and western regions'.Fourth,the share of inter-provincial trade in the overall external trade of Chinese provinces has a declining tendency,which indicates a slower process of China's domestic market integration compared with international market integration.However,in terms of proportion,the external trade of most Chinese provinces is still dominated by inter-provincial trade.Fifth,most provinces with longstanding inter-provincial trade deficits are in the central and western regions.

Development of a GIS-based Decision Support System for Assessing Land Use Status

The objectives of this study are to assess land s ui tability and to predict the spatial and temporal changes in land use types (LUTs ) by using GIS-based land use management decision support system. A GIS databas e with data on climate, topography, soil characteristic, irrigation condition, f ertilizer application, and special socioeconomic activities has been developed a nd used for the evaluation of land productivity for different crops by integrati ng with a crop growth model-the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC). International food policy simulation model (IFPSIM) is also embedded into GIS fo r the predictions of how crop demands and crop market prices will change under a lternative policy scenarios. An inference engine (IE) including land use choice model is developed to illustrate land use choice behavior based on logit models , which allows to analyze how diversified factors ranging from climate changes, crop price changes to land management changes can affect the distribution of agr icultural land use. A test for integrated simulation is taken in each 0.1° by 0.1° grid cell to predict the change of agricultural land use types at globa l level. Global land use changes are simulated from 1992 to 2050.

Effect of China’s technology spillovers on energy intensity in Africa

Empirical studies on the effects of China-African economic relations on energy intensity in Africa are scarce.To fill the gap in the literature,this study investigates the technology spillover effects of the China-Africa trade and investment relations on energy intensity.It uses both linear and nonlinear dynamic panel estimation methods for 42 African countries from 2003 to 2015.The results show that China's technology spillover through imports significantly reduces energy intensity in Africa.The findings are consistent across specifications and sample groups.Moreover,the technology spillover coming from foreign direct investment(FDI)improves energy intensity,particularly in lower-middle-income African countries.The dynamic threshold estimation results show that countries'absorptive ability is important for technology spillover effects of FDI and imports on energy intensity.The results suggest that countries'absorptive capacity should be increased to maximize the benefits of trade and investment technology spillovers.

Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the Jormer Silk Roaa regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in-sample, out-of-sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990-2013. Our results suggest that China＇s former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China＇s economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.

Visa trial of international trade:evidence from support vector machines and neural networks

International trade depends on networking,interaction and in-person meetings which stimulate cross-border travels.The countries are seeking policies to encourage inbound mobility to support bilateral trade,tourism,and foreign direct investments.Some nations have been implementing liberal visa regimes as an important part of facilitating policies in view of security concerns.Turkey has been among the nations introducing liberal visa policies to support trade in the last decade and recorded significant increases in the volumes of exports.In this paper,we employed machine learning methodologies,Support vector machines(SVM)and Neural networks(NN),to investigate the facilitating impact of liberal visa policies on bilateral trade,using the export data from Turkey for the period of 2000–2014.The research disentangled the variables that have the strongest impact on trade utilizing SVM and NN models and exhibited that visa policies have significant impacts on the bilateral trade.More relaxed visa policies are recommended for the countries in the pursuit of increasing exports.

The Two-person Double-price Second-hand Vehicle Trade Game Model of Quality Certification Market in China

The relation between two most important players, enterprises and certification bodies, of quality certification market are analyzed by building two-person game second-hand car trade model with two prices in this paper. By introducing a virtual player, the incomplete information game can be transformed into the complete but imperfect information game. Then some conclusions are given： there have two methods to make market succeed absolutely, （1） to eliminate the information＇s imperfection; （2） to increase the counterfeit cost. And by introducing the double-price second-hand car model with refundment guarantee of enterprises and certification bodies further, the author thinks it will increase counterfeit cost greatly to oblige certification bodies make actual quality promises and take on related liability to some extent. This kind of expensive commitment will make market succeed absolutely; accordingly it can increase and improve the effectiveness of quality certification, and the authority, justness and objectivity will be guaranteed further.

Downside risk and defaultable bond returns

This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns.By introducing a defaultable bond-trading model,we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside conditions.Our empirical analysis indicates that downside risk can explain a large proportion of the variation in yield spreads and contains almost all valid information on liquidity risk.As the credit level decreases,the explanatory power of downside risk increases significantly.We also investigate the predictive power of downside risk in cross-sectional defaultable bond excess returns using a portfolio-level analysis and Fama-Mac Beth regressions.We find that downside risk is a strong and robust predictor for future bond returns.In addition,due to the higher proportion of abnormal transactions in the Chinese bond market,downside risk proxy semi-variance can better explain yield spreads and predict portfolio excess returns than the proxy value at risk.

Blue Box Policy Reform in the Doha Round Negotiations:Effects and China's Position

This paper uses an agricultural trade policy simulation model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of Blue Box policy reform on agricultural production and trade, and further provides specific proposals regarding China ＇ s reform position. The results indicate that, if the reform could achieve a reduction in distorting supports in more developed countries, China＇ s total agricultural production would increase, accompanied by a decrease in agricultural imports and a slight increase in exports. In terms of social welfare, producers would gain significantly, consumers would lose and government would not suffer greatly, which is in accordance with current agricultural policies in China. As a core member of G20, China should approve a subsidy level as low as possible required by Blue Box to achieve ＂substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic supports＂.