Impact of geopolitical risk,GDP,inflation,interest rate,and trade openness on foreign direct investment:Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries

Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.

Toward a sustainable future:Examining the interconnectedness among Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),urbanization,trade openness,economic growth,and energy usage in Australia

The energy demand in Australia is increasing with the industrialization and rapid economic growth.This study analyzed the relationships among the economic growth,Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),trade openness,urbanization,and energy usage in Australia based on the data from World Development Indicators(WDI)from 1972 to 2021.The results indicates that there is a cointegration among economic growth,FDI,trade openness,urbanization,and energy usage,which was traced through the autoregressivedistributed lag(ARDL).The Zivot-Andrews unit root test reveals that energy usage,economic growth,FDI,urbanization,and trade openness show significant structural breaks in 1993,1996,1982,2008,and 1994,respectively.The ARDL model shows that economic growth has a positive and significant effect on energy usage in the long-run(0.814)and short-run(0.809).Moreover,the results also show that FDI(0.028)and trade openness(0.043)have positive impacts on energy usage in the long-run.However,urbanization shows a negative and significant influence on energy usage in the long-run(–0.965).Then,the research demonstrates a unidirectional causation between energy usage and trade openness,with energy usage significantly causing trade openness.The current study endorses energy consumption policies and investment strategies for a paradigm shifting from a reliance on fossil fuels as the primary energy source to renewable energy sources.These findings have profound implications for sustainable energy usage.

Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth in Zambia

This study investigates the causal relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Zambia from 1965 to 2011. Two measures of financial development were used： broad money and domestic credit to the private sector, each as a ratio of gross domestic product （GDP）. In this regard, two models were developed for each indicator. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller （ADF） and Phillips-Perron （PP） tests were used to determine stationarity of all the variables. Furthermore, Johansen test was employed to ascertain possible cointegration among variables. The vector error correction model （VECM） was employed to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among the variables in each model. The results indicate that the relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development indicator chosen.

More Trade Openness Necessary In the Future

On November 21 of 2011, Pascal Lamy, director-general of World Trade Or- ganization (WTO) warned in his annual report that the forecast for world export growth revised downwards to 5.8% in 2011 from the earlier estimate of 6.5%, because of the worsening of global economy

Fiscal Expenditure,Trade Openness and Income Distribution

As a policy tool of income redistribution,fiscal expenditure cannot change the unfair primary distribution caused by trade openness.Moreover,the effect of trade openness on the scale of fiscal expenditure distorts its income redistribution effect.This paper’s empirical analysis shows as follows.(1)Both fiscal expenditure and trade openness expand income gap on the whole.(2)Whatever budget structure and expenditure category,fiscal expenditure cannot affect the scale of trade openness significantly,which means that fiscal expenditure cannot indirectly affect trade openness’income distribution effect through its scale.(3)Trade openness can reduce the scale of public finance expenditure and most categories’fiscal expenditure,which means that trade openness can indirectly affect fiscal expenditure’s income redistribution effect through its scale.Therefore,trade openness will limit and distort fiscal expenditure’s income redistribution effect.While improving the income distribution effect of fiscal expenditure,we should also recognize that this effect is limited.

Has China-ASEAN Trade opening increased China’ s carbon emissions?

This study uses carbon emission data at the provincial level in China between 1998-2018 and the proportion of the total import and export trade between provinces and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)in GDP to measure the level of China-ASEAN trade openness.It examines the impact of China ASEAN trade openness on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism,and selects the RMB/USD exchange rate as an instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of China-ASEAN trade openness variables.The impact of China-ASEAN trade openness on China’s environment is estimated within a two-stage least squares framework.The results show that trade openness between China and ASEAN positively impacts China’s environment and can facilitate carbon emission reduction.The scale,structural,and technology effects brought by China-ASEAN trade liberalization jointly promote China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction.An inverted“U”relationship is found between economic growth and environmental quality in China,and some provinces and municipalities have now crossed the inflection point of the curve,in which carbon emi ssions decrease with an increase in per capita wealth.

China Foreign Exchange Trade System Opens in Shanghai

The China Foreign Exchange Trade System, the only national foreign exchange trading institution in China, officially opened for business at 15 Shanghai Bund, Shanghai, on April 18 this year. It marked the start of the first market prices for foreign exchange in the country. The opening of the system means that the relationship between

OPENING UP NEW PROSPECTS FOR CHINA'S SERVICE TRADE LED BY TOURISM

Since the launch of the reform, China’s service trade has been growing at a much faster speed compared to that of the rest of the country’s economy and world trade. In developing commodity trade, we are also engaged in technology trade, service trade and international investment, making efforts to achieve fusion and mutual promotion. Now, we are speeding up the opening

Exploring the moderating role of financial development in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa:fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach

The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.

Revisiting the nexus between fiscal decentralization and CO_(2)emissions in South Africa:fresh policy insights

The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.

Nexus between selected macroeconomic variables and carbon emission in Kenya

Agriculture is not only influenced by climate change,but it is also one of the significant contributors of CO_(2) emission.Understanding CO_(2) emission and macroeconomic variables is critical to solving the challenges and threats faced by Kenya’s agriculture and environment.This study used the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis and the autoregressive distribution lag model(ADLM)to analyze the relationships of CO_(2) emission with agricultural output,government direct investment,trade openness,and inflation rate in Kenya from 1983 to 2019.The study found that there exists a positive(direct)relationship between CO_(2) emission and foreign direct investment in the long run in Kenya.Additionally,CO_(2) emission and trade openness have a negative(indirect)and statistically significant relationship after the error correction term adjustment in the long run.Moreover,the relationship between CO_(2) emission and agricultural output is positive(direct)and statistically significant in the long run.There is a positive(direct)and statistically insignificant relationship between CO_(2) emission and inflation rate in the short run.Notably,the EKC hypothesis indicated that the Kenya’s economy is still on the environmental degradation trade-off through the gradual increase of both CO_(2) emission and agricultural output.Our results are important to Kenya’s economy because the derived insights will assist in relevant departments to formulate sustainable strategies to minimize environmental degradation.

Economic Growth, CH₄and N₂O Emissions in Sudan: Where Should the Policy Focus Be?

This study aimed to investigate the effect of economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in Sudan. Within the context of the EKC, the study applies the OLS, cointegration, vector error correction modelling (VECM) and Granger causality methods. The study has established a long run equilibrium relationship for both CH4 and N2O in their relation to economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use in presence of trade openness (TOP) and inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI). The estimated VECM shows that emissions of CH4 are significantly affected by economic growth, TOP, and FDI with no effect of agricultural growth in the short run while CH4 is found to be significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth, TOP and FDI in the long run. The estimated VECM for N2O shows that N2O emissions are more significantly affected by energy use, agricultural growth and FDI with no effect of economic growth in the short run, while N2O is found to be significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth, TOP and FDI in the long run. Consistently, findings from the estimated OLS and VECMs show that the EKC does not hold for either CH4, or N2O emissions, and that N2O emissions are more significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use than emissions of CH4. Findings from impulse response and variance decomposition analysis confirm that emissions of N2O are more responsive to economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use than emissions of CH4. Granger causality analysis shows existence of bidirectional relationship between CH4 and agricultural growth, but a unidirectional relationship from CH4 to FDI. For N2O, the study finds a unidirectional relationship running from agricultural growth to N2O, while N2O emissions are found to cause GDP per capita, the squared GDP per capita, OIL consumption and FDI. In terms of causality, these results suggest that emissions of CH4 and N2O have been generated more by agricultural activities than by overall economic activity, and that activities generating N2O emissions in particular have been contributing significantly to economic growth. Within the context of the country’s intended nationally determined contributions, the findings of this study suggest that policies should be directed cautiously but more effectively to control N2O than CH4 emissions. Economic growth could be pursued without significant environmental harm from both CH4 and N2O emissions. However, Sudan should expand adoption of energy efficiency measures, expansion of renewable energy use, place restrictions on production and use of fuel woods and charcoal for low carbon economy and green growth.

Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Welfare in Africa:Empirical Evidence from Guinea

The recent economic and financial hardship has resuscitated controver­sies over the role of Foreign Capital in economic growth and welfare enhancement in emerging nations,particularly in Guinea.The literature that scrutinizes the causal interaction among FDI and poverty allevia­tion is relatively abundant,the fundamental statement shared by these empirical studies is that GDP growth is assumed to be relevant proxy of people well-being.However,Guinea and its FDI attraction policies have not been well approached by some of these paper.This empirical study examines the interaction between FDI inflows and poverty alleviation in Guinea from 1990 to 2017.The Human Development Index(HDI)and the per capita FDI net inflows are respectively employed as key welfare and FDI indicators.The findings from the Error Correction Model(ECM)confirm that,in the long term the variables converge in the same direction.The out­comes also exhibit that per capita FDI in the long run,negatively im­pacts welfare but not significantly,while Inflation’s coefficient remains positive and significant.With trade openness,we still found the same positive interaction but not significant.The results from the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model(ARDL)exhibit that per capita FDI flows[current value and L2.]have positive but not significant impact on HDI whereas FDI[L1]has a negative interaction with welfare at 10%significance level.The trade openness variable[current value]is negatively but not significantly associated with HDI,while inflation[L1 and L2]influence on human advancement is positive and significant.Overall,Foreign direct investment in Guinea is still resource seeking investment which impact on the domestic economy is very limited.Hence,government should introduce new policies and incentives in order to attract more market seeking or other types of FDI that may pro­mote inclusive growth and alleviate poverty.

Is the Trade-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?Evidence from an ARDL Approach

This study examines the trade-led growth(TLG)hypothesis for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.Using time-series annual data for the period 1985-2019,the ARDL approach and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test are applied to accomplish the study.The ARDL estimation reveals that trade openness positively causes economic growth in both the long and short run,and the TLG hypothesis is found valid for the Kingdom.The Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test results have evidenced several unidirectional causalities.Of them,trade openness causes economic growth and supports the ARDL finding and hence the TLG hypothesis for the Kingdom.Moreover,trade openness causes gross fixed capital formation,and the labor force stimulates both economic growth and trade volume.The findings recommend that the Kingdom may increase its trade to reap further benefits and enhance its income growth.

Open to Trade China-South Africa trade relations are alive with possibilities

In recent years, economic and trade relations between China and Africa have seen rapid development. As Africa’s largest trading partner, China’s trade relations with South Africa, the continent’s most potent economy, are an integral part of this

China Textile and Apparel Trade Show opens in NY

China Textile and Apparel Trade Show,the Home Textiles Fabric Sourcing Expo and Texworld USA,were jointly unveiled at the Javits Convention Center in New York,the United States,July 13,

Green trading and ecological sustainability under macroeconomic policy framework

When confronted with ecological challenges,trading ecologically friendly products involving renewable technologies,green management practices,and effluent treatment methods could alleviate ecological degradation on a global scale while considering the macroeconomic policy framework.Therefore,this study determines the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy instruments in moderating the relationship between green trade openness(i.e.,trade in environmentally related products)and ecological sustainability.Applying panel quantile regression on data from 20 OECD members from 2003 to 2016,we found that green trade openness supports ecological sustainability through a gains-from-trade approach.Concerning moderation effects,expenditure-driven fiscal expansion reinforces the favorable influence of green trade openness on ecological sustainability across ecologically less/moderately efficient economies,while it does the reverse for ecologically more efficient members.Taxation-driven fiscal contraction promotes ecological sustainability amelioration impact of green trade openness for economies with belowaverage ecological quality and remains neutral for those with average/above-average ecological quality.Besides,interest rate-driven monetary contraction proliferates the ecological sustainability enhancement effect of green openness.We suggest that the fiscal and monetary policies demand unambiguous coordination with the OECD’s trade policy structure for optimal environmental outcomes of trading in environmental products.These insights would help OECD’s green trade policies gain momentum to facilitate the attainment of the Climate Action agenda of the United Nations’Sustainable Development Goals.

DEPENDENCE BETWEEN STOCK RETURNS AND INVESTOR SENTIMENT IN CHINESE MARKETS:A COPULA APPROACH

Using data of newly opened stock trading accounts in China as a proxy of investor sentiment index, the authors employ the time-varying copula-GARCH model with Hansen＇s skewed Student-t innovations to investigate the dynamic dependence between investor sentiment and stock returns. The empirical findings show that shifts in investor sentiment are asymptotically positively correlated to stock returns in extreme value situations in both A shares market and B shares market in China, that is to say, stock prices will increase （decrease） more when investors become more bullish （bearish）. Also, results show that the dependence between investor sentiment and stock returns is time-varying, which means that the traditional Pearson＇s correlation based on normal distribution is not enough to describe the relationship between stock market behavior and investor behavior.