弹性退休制度下谁更愿意延迟退休?——基于Option Value模型的微观模拟

人口老龄化背景下延迟退休年龄、建立弹性退休制度是大势所趋。养老金激励是弹性退休制度的重要内容。建立期权价值模型和养老金给付及奖惩因子模型,基于中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP2018)的数据,对不同特征人群的养老金峰值、期权价值、内部报酬率进行模拟。研究发现:养老金总财富随退休年龄“先增后减”,男性的峰值年龄早于女性;引入养老金“奖惩”机制有助于提高最优退休年龄,激励劳动者延迟退休;考虑闲暇偏好的异质性,男性参保者更倾向于早退休,而女性参保者特别是女性较高收入群体更愿意延迟退休;厌恶风险的参保者更有可能选择早退休。建议尽早建立弹性退休年龄政策体系,增加劳动者的选择权和制度灵活性;引入精算调节因子构建养老金奖惩机制,完善养老保险待遇计发办法。

基于互信息优化的Option-Critic算法

时序抽象作为分层强化学习的重要研究内容,允许分层强化学习智能体在不同的时间尺度上学习策略,可以有效解决深度强化学习难以处理的稀疏奖励问题。如何端到端地学习到优秀的时序抽象策略一直是分层强化学习研究面临的挑战。Option-Critic(OC)框架在Option框架的基础上,通过策略梯度理论,可以有效解决此问题。然而,在策略学习过程中,OC框架会出现Option内部策略动作分布变得十分相似的退化问题。该退化问题影响了OC框架的实验性能,导致Option的可解释性变差。为了解决上述问题,引入互信息知识作为内部奖励,并提出基于互信息优化的Option-Critic算法(Option-Critic Algorithm with Mutual Information Optimization,MIOOC)。MIOOC算法结合了近端策略Option-Critic(Proximal Policy Option-Critic,PPOC)算法,可以保证下层策略的多样性。为了验证算法的有效性,把MIOOC算法和几种常见的强化学习方法在连续实验环境中进行对比实验。实验结果表明,MIOOC算法可以加快模型学习速度,实验性能更优,Option内部策略更有区分度。

分离膜的Trade-off效应及其突破研究进展

综述通过文献调研,对膜材料在水通量与污染物截留效率之间存在的此消彼长的Trade-off效应进行分析,并对近几年国内外突破分离膜Trade-off效应的方法进行了总结。结果表明,膜表面接枝两性离子技术、非溶剂诱导相分离技术、结构改性技术、物理共混技术、表面涂覆技术等可以突破该技术瓶颈。而物理共混技术表现出非常优异的效果,且该技术方法相对简便,无需更新设备,易于实施,制备出的膜材料具有良好的机械性能和产水能力。综述为高效分离膜的开发提供了新的技术思路,为膜技术的应用和推广提供有益的技术借鉴。

The life-history trait trade-offs mediated by reproduction and immunity in the brown planthopper,Nilaparvata lugens Stål

Reproduction and immune defense are costly functions,and they are expected to tradeoff with each other to drive evolution.The brown planthopper(BPH),Nilaparvata lugens Stål(Hemiptera,Delphacidae),is a global superpest that mostly damages rice crops.Yeast-like symbionts(YLS)exist in the abdominal fat body tissue and are tightly associated with the development,growth,and reproduction of BPH.Our previous research demonstrated that mating behavior promotes the release of YLS from the fat body into the hemolymph in the BPH,thereby triggering an immune response.Additionally,the fitness costs related to life-history traits of BPH(such as survival rate)have a strong dependence on the relative abundance of YLS.However,the possible relationship between reproduction and the immune response in BPH has not been identified.In this study,an omics-based approach was used to analyze the transcriptome of fat body tissues in mated and unmated BPH at 72 h post-eclosion,from which two antimicrobial peptide genes,NlDefensin A(NlDfA)and NlDefensin B(NlDfB),were selected since they were highly expressed in mated BPH.Subsequently,the full-length cDNA sequences of the NlDfA and NlDfB genes were cloned and analyzed.qPCR results showed up-regulation of the NlDfA and NlDfB genes in mated BPH when compared to unmated BPH.Spatial-temporal expression analysis indicated that the NlDfA and NlDfB genes were expressed in all tissues and developmental stages,and they were most highly expressed in the fat body at 24 h post-eclosion.Moreover,the symbionts in BPH were significantly inhibited by the in vitro expression of the NlDfA and NlDfB proteins.Furthermore,RNA interference(RNAi)-mediated suppression of NlDfA and NlDfB dramatically increased the relative abundance of YLS in the fat body,while YLS in the hemolymph decreased significantly.These BPHs also displayed some fitness disadvantages in survival,fecundity,hatchability,and possibly the vertical transmission of YLS from hemolymph to egg.Our results indicated that mating could heighten the immunity of BPH by upregulating the expression of the NlDfA and NlDfB genes,which protect the host from pathogen challenges during reproduction.However,the reduced content of YLS may act as a fitness disadvantage in dictating the life-history traits of BPH.This work has significant theoretical and practical implications for the precise green control technology that involves crucial gene targeting,as well as for the“endosymbionts for pest control”strategy in insects.

Spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies against the background of the gully control and land consolidation project on the Loess Plateau,China

Studying the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their interrelationships on the Loess Plateau against the background of the gully control and land consolidation(GCLC)project has significant implications for ecological protection and quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,in this study,we took Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province of China,as the study area,selected four typical ecosystem services,including soil conservation service,water yield service,carbon storage service,and habitat quality service,and quantitatively evaluated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2018 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.We also analysed the relationship between the GCLC project and regional ecosystem service changes in various regions(including 1 city,2 districts,and 10 counties)of Yan'an City and proposed a coordinated development strategy between the GCLC project and the ecological environment.The results showed that,from 2010 to 2018,soil conservation service decreased by 7.76%,while the other three ecosystem services changed relatively little,with water yield service increasing by 0.56% and carbon storage service and habitat quality service decreasing by 0.16% and 0.14%,respectively.The ecological environment of Yan'an City developed in a balanced way between 2010 and 2018,and the four ecosystem services showed synergistic relationships,among which the synergistic relationships between soil conservation service and water yield service and between carbon storage service and habitat quality service were significant.The GCLC project had a negative impact on the ecosystem services of Yan'an City,and the impact on carbon storage service was more significant.This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific evaluation of the ecological benefits of the GCLC project and the realization of a win-win situation between food security and ecological security.

Pricing Catastrophe Options with Credit Risk in a Regime-Switching Model

In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space.By using the measure change technique,we derive the price expressions of catastrophe put options.Moreover,we conduct some numerical analysis to demonstrate how the parameters of the model affect the price of the catastrophe put option.

Trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in Yutian County along the Keriya River Basin,Northwest China

The Keriya River Basin is located in an extremely arid climate zone on the southern edge of the Tarim Basin of Northwest China,exhibiting typical mountain-oasis-desert distribution characteristics.In recent decades,climate change and human activities have exerted significant impacts on the service functions of watershed ecosystems.However,the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services(ESs)have not been thoroughly examined.This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal changes in ESs within the Keriya River Basin from 1995 to 2020 as well as the trade-offs and synergies between ESs.Leveraging the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)and Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ)using land use/land cover(LULC),climate,vegetation,soil,and hydrological data,we quantified the spatiotemporal changes in the five principal ESs(carbon storage,water yield,food production,wind and sand prevention,and habitat quality)of the watershed from 1995 to 2020.Spearman correlation coefficients were used to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between ES pairs.The findings reveal that water yield,carbon storage,and habitat quality exhibited relatively high levels in the upstream,while food production and wind and sand prevention dominated the midstream and downstream,respectively.Furthermore,carbon storage,food production,wind and sand prevention,and habitat quality demonstrated an increase at the watershed scale while water yield exhibited a decline from 1995 to 2020.Specifically,carbon storage,wind and sand prevention,and habitat quality presented an upward trend in the upstream but downward trend in the midstream and downstream.Food production in the midstream showed a continuously increasing trend during the study period.Trade-off relationships were identified between water yield and wind and sand prevention,water yield and carbon storage,food production and water yield,and habitat quality and wind and sand prevention.Prominent temporal and spatial synergistic relationships were observed between different ESs,notably between carbon storage and habitat quality,carbon storage and food production,food production and wind and sand prevention,and food production and habitat quality.Water resources emerged as a decisive factor for the sustainable development of the basin,thus highlighting the intricate trade-offs and synergies between water yield and the other four services,particularly the relationship with food production,which warrants further attention.This research is of great significance for the protection and sustainable development of river basins in arid areas.

Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Local Context for a Contextualized Diffusion of Agroecological Intensification Options in Niger

Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development.

Research on Value Evaluation Method of Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Composite Real Options

Venture capital investments are characterized by high input,high yield,and high risk.Due to the complexity of the market environment,stage-by-stage investment is becoming increasingly important.Traditional evaluation methods like comparison,proportion,maturity,internal rate of return,scenario analysis,decision trees,and net present value cannot fully consider the uncertainty and stage characteristics of the project.The fuzzy real options method addresses this by combining real option theory,fuzzy number theory,and composite option theory to provide a more accurate and objective evaluation of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)projects.It effectively considers the interaction of options and the ambiguity of project parameters,making it a valuable tool for project evaluation in the context of venture capital investment.

Trade-Offs and Synergie Effects of Regulating Ecosystem Services along an Climatic Gradient in Slovakia

This study aims to assess the synergies and trade-offs of regulating ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are non-linearly interconnected and changes in one service can positively or negatively affect another. We evaluated ecosystem services based on biophysical indicators using an expert scoring system that determines the corresponding soil functions and is part of the existing databases available in Slovakia. This methodological combination enabled us to provide unique mapping and assessment of ecosystem services within Slovakia. Correlation analysis between individual regulating ecosystem services and climate regions, slope, texture, and altitude confirm the statistically significant influence of climate and slope in all agricultural land, arable land, and grassland ecosystems. Statistically significant synergistic effects were established between the regulation of the water regime and the regulation of soil erosion within each climate region, apart from the very warm climate region. Only in a very warm climate region was potential of regulating ecosystem services mutually beneficial for soil erosion control and soil cleaning potential (immobilization of inorganic pollutants).

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Trade-offs between ion-conducting and mechanical properties: The case of polyacrylate electrolytes

Polymer electrolytes(PEs)have been long recognized as the key materials to enable energy-dense batteries and render flexible energy devices practically viable,owing to their chemical and mechanical reliability.However,much of their promise is yet to be realized.The roomtemperature ion conductivity of existing PEs still falls short of the implementation criterion of 10^(-4) S cm^(-1) on the promise of acceptable mechanical properties,thereby precluding their practical application.The twin but inversely related duties of polymers,that is,functioning as both an ion-conducting medium and a structural backbone,underlie this issue but are less elucidated systematically.The polyacrylate(PA)family is among promising polymer matrices on account of ester polarity,electrode compatibility,chemical tunability,and mechanical durability.The extensive applicability of PA in plasticized gels,dry solids,and emerging composites makes PA-based PEs representative to illustrate the trade-off between ion conduction and mechanical strength.We herein seek to outline the stated long-standing conflict exemplified by PA-based PEs,focusing on crucial strategies toward balancing and reconciling the two mutually exclusive properties,with the intention of offering designing guidelines for next-generation PEs.

Trade-off and Synergy of Rural Functions Under County Depopulation in the Typical Black Soil Region of Northeast China

As the population continues to shrink in the black soil region of Northeast China since 2000,it is critical to master the impact of population shrinkage on rural functions to realize rural revitalization and sustainable development.In this study,we focused on the impacts of depopulation on the evolution and interrelationship of rural subfunctions.Based on the rural function indexes system,the TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)method,spatial analysis method,and mathematical statistics analysis method were used to summarize the spatial and temporal characteristics of rural function development,as well as the effect of population shrinkage in the typical black soil region of Northeast China.The results showed that depopulation varied in the extent and duration between the forested region and plain areas,which both impacted the trajectories of rural subfunctions evolution.For the economic development function and ecological conservation function,the effect of continuous slight depopulation was beneficial,while the effect of rapid depopulation was adverse,which was exactly opposite to the agricultural production function.All forms of population shrinkage were conducive to the development of the social security function.With the deepening population shrinkage,depopulation mainly promoted the collaborative development between subfunctions in this study,except the relationship between agricultural production and social security function.But effects of depopulation on the interrelationship of rural subfunctions varied between the forested region and plain areas in some cases.The results provided evidence for the cognition that population shrinkage had complicated effects on rural subfunctions.

Decarbonization options of the iron and steelmaking industry based on a three-dimensional analysis

Decarbonization is a critical issue for peaking CO_(2) emissions of energy-intensive industries,such as the iron and steel industry.The decarbonization options of China’s ironmaking and steelmaking sector were discussed based on a systematic three-dimensional low-carbon analysis from the aspects of resource utilization(Y),energy utilization(Q),and energy cleanliness which is evaluated by a process general emission factor(PGEF)on all the related processes,including the current blast furnace(BF)-basic oxygen furnace(BOF)integrated process and the specific sub-processes,as well as the electric arc furnace(EAF)process,typical direct reduction(DR)process,and smelting reduction(SR)process.The study indicates that the three-dimensional aspects,particularly the energy structure,should be comprehensively considered to quantitatively evaluate the decarbonization road map based on novel technologies or processes.Promoting scrap utilization(improvement of Y)and the substitution of carbon-based energy(improvement of PGEF)in particular is critical.In terms of process scale,promoting the development of the scrap-based EAF or DR-EAF process is highly encouraged because of their lower PGEF.The three-dimensional method is expected to extend to other processes or industries,such as the cement production and thermal electricity generation industries.

Upside and downside correlated jump risk premia of currency options and expected returns

This research explores upside and downside jumps in the dynamic processes of three rates:domestic interest rates,foreign interest rates,and exchange rates.To fill the gap between the asymmetric jump in the currency market and the current models,a correlated asymmetric jump model is proposed to capture the co-movement of the correlated jump risks for the three rates and identify the correlated jump risk premia.The likelihood ratio test results show that the new model performs best in 1-,3-,6-,and 12-month maturities.The in-and out-of-sample test results indicate that the new model can capture more risk factors with relatively small pricing errors.Finally,the risk factors captured by the new model can explain the exchange rate fluctuations for various economic events.

Intelligent option portfolio model with perspective of shadow price and risk‑free profit

Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still an improvement for the portrayal of their unique properties in portfolio problems.In this paper,an intelligent option portfolio model is developed that allows selling options contracts to earn option fees and considers the high leverage of options in the market.Deep learning methods are used to predict the forward price of the underlying asset,making the model smarter.It can find an optimal option portfolio that maximizes the final wealth among the call and put options with multiple strike prices.We use the duality theory to analyze the marginal contribution of initial assets,risk tolerance limit,and portfolio leverage limit for the final wealth.The leverage limit of the option portfolio has a significant impact on the return.To satisfy the investors with different risk preferences,we also give the conditions for the option portfolio to gain a risk-free return and replace the Conditional Value-at-Risk.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the intelligent option portfolio model obtains a satisfactory out-of-sample return,which is significantly positively correlated with the volatility of the underlying asset and negatively correlated with the forecast error of the forward price.The risk-free option model is effective in achieving the goal of no drawdown and gaining satisfactory returns.Investors can adjust the balance point between returns and risks according to their risk preference.

Synergies and trade-offs of climate-smart agriculture(CSA)practices selected by smallholder farmers in Geshy watershed,Southwest Ethiopia

Studies on mainstreaming climate-smart agriculture(CSA)practices can increase smallholder farmers’capacity and awareness to improve food security and establish sustainable livelihoods through resilient agricultural systems,while achieving adaptation and mitigation benefits.Hence,valuable insights can be obtained from smallholder farmers in responding to present and forthcoming challenges of climate change impacts.However,there is little research work on trade-off and synergy assessments.Taking Geshy watershed in Southwest Ethiopia as a case study area,both quantitative and qualitative data analysis were undertaken in this study.The data were collected from 15 key informant interviews,6 focus group discussions,and 384 households to answer the following questions:(1)what are the top 5 preferred CSA practices for smallholder farmers in Geshy watershed when coping with the impacts of climate change?(2)What is the performance of the preferred CSA practices?And(3)which trade-offs and synergies are experienced upon the implementation of CSA practices?The study came up with the most preferred CSA practices such as the use of improved crop varieties,small-scale irrigation,improved animal husbandry,the use of efficient inorganic fertilizers,and crop rotation with legumes.The selected CSA practices showed that the productivity goal exhibit the best synergy,while the mitigation goal has trade-offs.The study also indicated that the use of improved crop varieties causes high synergies in all 3 goals of CSA practices;small-scale irrigation provides a medium synergy on productivity goal but high synergy for adaptation and mitigation goals;improved animal husbandry shows a high synergy with the adaptation goal,a relatively lower synergy with the productivity goal,and a trade-off with the mitigation goal;the use of efficient inorganic fertilizers shows maximum synergy for the productivity and adaptation goals;and crop rotation with legumes exhibits high synergy with the productivity and mitigation goals but a relatively lower synergy with the adaptation goal.These results can provide evidence to various stakeholder farmers in the value chain that the impacts of climate change can be addressed by the adoption of CSA practices.In general,CSA practices are considered indispensable.Smallholder farmers prefer CSA practices that help to increase crop productivity and household resilience to climate change impacts.The results generate a vital foundation for recommendations to smallholder farming decision-makers.It also sensitizes actions for innovative and sustainable methods that are able to upscale the preferred CSA practices in the agricultural system in Geshy watershed of Southwest Ethiopia and other regions.

Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

Pricing European Options Based on a Logarithmic Truncated t-Distribution

The t-distribution has a “fat tail” feature, which is more suitable than the normal probability density function to describe the distribution characteristics of return on assets. The difficulty of using t-distribution to price European options is that a fat tail can lead to a deviation in one integral required for option pricing. We use a distribution called logarithmic truncated t-distribution to price European options. A risk neutral valuation method was used to obtain a European option pricing model with logarithmic truncated t-distribution.

A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis

We propose a novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics using option pricing theory.The problem of valuing the inherent real optionality a coal producer has when mining and processing thermal coal is modelled as pricing spread options of three assets under the stochastic volatility model.We derive a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform(“FFT”)lower bound approximation to value the inherent real optionality and for robustness check,we compare the semi-analytical pricing accuracy with the Monte Carlo simulation.Model parameters are estimated from the historical monthly data,and stochastic volatility parameters are obtained by matching the Kurtosis of the low-ash diff data to the Kurtosis of the stochastic volatility process which is assumed to follow Cox–Ingersoll–Ross(“CIR”)model.