An Analysis of China's Trade Balances with Other Countries and Regions

This article utilizes a large amount of statistical data to analyze the global distribution of foreign trade in China since 1990,as well as the factors involved and the changes in trends.The research results indicate that China has gained a favourable balance against developed countries and a disadvantageous balance against developing countries;China enjoys a trade surplus with North American and European countries while suffering deficits with those in the Asia.pacific region,as well as with resource-abundant Australia,Africa and South America. With regard to trends,the structure of China’s foreign trade will not undergo fundamental changes in the short term,but in the long run will be transformed in line with restructuring of the growth pattern.

China-US Trade Balance under the Ownership-based Statistical System

In the context of economic globalization,territory-based bilateral trade statistics are no longer compatible with the reality of cross-border flow of capital factor and rapid emergence of multinational firms.On the basis of survey of literature studies,this paper has created a three-country model of bilateral trade based on ownership principle and demonstrated that ownership-based statistical system under this model can reflect bilateral trade volume and balance more objectively,truthfully and comprehensively.In addition to theoretical demonstration,this paper has revaluated China-US trade balance using ownership-based statistical methodology and the result indicates that the existing statistical system of trade severely overestimates the real level of China-US trade balance and FDI in China is a major reason behind increasing China-US trade surplus.

Balanced Development of Internal and External Trade

The CMC International and Domestic Trade Division under the China National Machinery Import & Export Corporation has, in accordance with the CMC’s strategic goals, worked out the following business guidelines: internal trade is the basis of external trade, and external trade is a supplementary to internal trade; domestic and overseas markets and resources should be used effectively, and internal trade and external trade should be coordinated and handled in a unified way. The Division’s business concept is to conduct trade-dominated business backed by

Cameroon’s Rice Sector Faced with Import Dependency

Rice is a staple food for the Cameroonian population and is the most consumed cereal after maize. The SNDR (National Rice Development Strategy) document shows that despite the scale of investment to absorb domestic demand for rice, Cameroonian production has only been able to satisfy domestic demand to the tune of 20%. The question is therefore to understand the constraints that prevent the development of local rice production to the level of national need. To obtain results, quantitative and qualitative data from secondary sources were used. The rice sector in Cameroon is managed by the state through the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER). MINADER designs development policies and strategies and coordinates the development of activities in the field. The state implements its policies and strategies through the projects and supervisory structures under its supervision. The sector is organized from the supervisory authority to the consumer. Each actor who intervenes has very specific missions that are transformed into effective activities in the field. The tracing of the evolution of rice production in Cameroon, from the year 2000 to 2018, shows three phases of evolution. The first phase, from 2000 to 2008, can be described as a recovery phase, with a growth rate of 44.84%, at the rate of 5.6% growth per year. The second phase can be described as the take-off phase, which runs from 2008 to 2016 when production peaked. The growth rate during this period was 79.96% at a rate of 10% growth per year. After the take-off phase, there is a decline between 2016 and 2018 at a rate of −12.7%, at a rate of −6.35% per year. It can be seen that the increase in production is evolving at the same rate as the increase in cultivated areas. However, the level of rice production in Cameroon does not essentially depend on the cultivated areas. This suggests that the increase in rice production in Cameroon also depends on the level of local farm yields. The State should, therefore, in addition to the increase in cultivated areas, accentuate its actions in the direction of increasing the yields of local producers.

Commodities Boom and the Structure of Sino-Brazilian Trade: A Study of the Period 2000-2021

The present study aims to analyze the growing Sino-Brazilian trade relationship and how China has contributed to the commodity price boom in the recent period.Throughout the article,it was possible to identify that the export and import agenda between countries differs in terms of number of products and technological intensity,so that imported products are capital intensive,while exported products are predominantly commodities.The text is divided into two main sections,firstly addressing the literature review on the commodities boom and highlighting the“China effect”.The second section analyzes trade between the countries,so that the trade relationship has followed an increasing trajectory since 2003.As of 2009,China has become Brazil’s main trading partner,surpassing historical partners such as the United States and Argentina.

Is China’s Foreign Investment Policy to Blame for US-China “Forced Technology Transfer” and Trade Conf lict?——Comment on Trump Administration’s Section 301 Investigation of China

The paper presents a new analytical framework to discuss the effect of Chinese foreign investment policy on the international technology transfer absorbed by enterprises of different ownership.The US Trade Representative claims that the Chinese government’s requirements regarding joint ventures pressure US companies to transfer intellectual property to Chinese companies.However,we argue that:(1)Based on analysis of the technical fees of technology import contracts and the number of US patents transferred to enterprises registered in the Chinese mainland,China’s foreign investment policy does not pressure US companies to transfer unremunerated technology to Chinese companies.(2)The invention and utility model patents filed by Chinese joint-venture enterprises or Chinese partner companies do not show an abnormally rapid growth,which means China’s FDI policy does not force US companies to transfer intellectual property in exchange for China’s market.(3)After 2012,the US-China technology transfer absorbed by enterprises of different ownership showed a significantly positive effect in reducing China-US trade surplus.

Expanding the US-China cooperation on service programs： New opportunities for both countries

For years, the US and China have cooperated closely on manufacturing programs, which helps China become the world manufacturing center. While they both have gained much from the cooperation, there are also increasing frictions, disputes, complains and dissatisfaction with each other because of the huge trade unbalance problem and other significant issues. The US is eager to expand export to China, but China seems hesitating to decide what to import from the US. This paper presents an analysis about the benefits of the US-China cooperation with a primary focus on the service sector, which remains a large and untapped opportunity for China. The goal of the paper is to explore a new route to relieve the trade balance issues as they separately impact both nations. While focusing on analyzing several immediate opportunities, the paper also investigates several new ideas that rest on technology as well as entrepreneurial development.

Econometric Analysis of Transport Sector on Economic Growth in Rwanda (1999-2018)

The purpose of this study was to examine Econometric analysis of transport sector on economic growth in Rwanda for the period of 1999 up to 2018. It’s an empirical study which used econometric techniques such as unit root test, Engle granger test/cointegration test, linear regression model and the error correction model to analyze the contribution of transport sector on economic growth based on Gross Capital formation in terms of transport infrastructures, trade balance as import and export can be affected by transport system, and contribution of transport services to economic growth. This study found that, there was a strong statistically significant relationship between GDP and transport sector as measured by transport services for both short run and long run as it is shown by R-squared of 0.997316 and 0.782009 of the long run regression model and error correction model respectively. ECM showed a quick recovery of 81.3% every year after a shock happen. This study concluded that there is a short run and long run relationship between Transport service and economic growth. This study recommends that policy implication that can be deducted from this study to facilitate transport sector through expansion of road networks and maintenance of existing road networks coupled with revitalization of alternative mode of transportation such as air transport, rail system and waterways will significantly improve the growth of the

Analysis of Foreign Trade Among Slovakia and the Country V4 After the Changeover

The article presents the situation in foreign trade among Slovakia and the country V4 （Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovak Republic） after the changeover in 2009. At a time of economic crisis, Slovakia acceded to the adoption of a common currency--the euro. Prior to the adoption of the euro, apprehensions were raised due to currency decreased export from Slovakia to countries V4. In this article, author analyses the mutual foreign trade of Slovakia with countries of V4 for all commodities in standard international trade classification （SITC） codes. The analysis covers the time before the adoption of the euro from 2004 to 2008 and after the adoption of the euro in the years from 2009 to 2013. It compares the percentage change over the previous year, the balance of foreign trade, and foreign trade turnover. The same analysis is also done for the period prior to the adoption of the euro as a whole and after the adoption of the euro. In the calculations, data from UN Comtrade Database were used, which are indicated in USD. The results indicate that in the transition to the common currency, the euro did not mean for Slovakia worsening trade with V4 countries. Economies of these countries have long been linked and even the possibility of its own monetary policy does not endanger Slovakia＇s export to these countries.

Embodied Pollution in China-U.S.Trade——An Empirical Study Based on Estimation of Input-Output Technology Matrix

Using input-output tables of China and the U.S., this paper has calculated the pollution embodied in trade and structure of pollution, the balance of emissions embodied in trade （BEET） and the pollution terms of trade （PTT） for 18 manufacturing sectors of China and the US. between 2001 and 2010. The calculation aims to verify whether China has become a ＂pollution haven＂ in bilateral trade with developed countries represented by the U.S., and whether Chinese exports are ＂dirtier＂ compared with imports from the U.S., and further conducting an industry structure analysis and effect decomposition study on pollution embodied in trade in industrial goods between China and U.S.. Result of our research indicates that according to our calculation of the BEET, China remains a country with environmental deficits in bilateral trade with the U.S. while the gaps between pollution embodied in China＇s export and import are narrowing. Pollution embodied in China＇s export has the tendency of increase before decline while pollution embodied in import demonstrates no significant tendency of decline. Through effect decomposition, we further found that the effect of technology arising from the substantial decline of pollution intensity effectively lowered pollution embodied in export and narrowed the environmental deficits of China in its bilateral trade. The effect of scale arising from growing export volumes significantly increased China＇s environmental deficits while the structural effect arising from changes in the structure of import and export is insignificant in reducing environmental deficits. Our calculation of the PTT led to the finding that China＇s export goods are more pollution intensive compared with import goods and that the structure of US exports to China is cleaner than the structure of Chinese exports to the US., which requires further improvements of China＇s import and export structure.

A New Tri-channel Decomposition of External Adjustment: Model and Application

In this study, we expanded upon the current benchmark model of external adjustment and dissected the concept of international financial adjustment into two distinct components: valuation effect and investment income. Our enhanced model, which we refer to as “tri-channel model,” incorporates three key elements: trade balance, valuation effect, and investment income. Using a consolidated quarterly dataset that encompassed China's balance of payments and international investment positions from 1998 to 2020, we estimated the relative importance of the three newly introduced adjustment channels to China's cyclical external imbalance. We found that the trade balance channel played a major role, accounting for approximately 76 percent of cyclical external adjustment. The contribution of the investment income channel to cyclical external adjustment (21 percent) was much greater than that of the valuation effect channel (3 percent). These findings imply that policy responses to the cyclical external imbalance in China should focus more on the trade balance and investment incomes channels rather than exploiting the valuation effects.

An Empirical Analysis of the Foreign Trade Balance in China

The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between China′s trade balance (T) and macroeconomic variables: domestic and foreign output (Y and Y\+* ), real exchange rate (E), domestic and foreign money supply (M and M\+*). The ADF Unit Root results show that the variables are all integrated of order I (1). The trade balance in China is not cointegrated with a number of variables, including the exchange rate. Absorption, elasticity, and monetary models are compared, and the elastic model performs better. There has been J\| curve in China, and the devaluations have had significant effect on the trade balance.

Trade Balance: Numbers Can be Deceiving

Trade disputes have become more prevalent and acute in recent years. Almost all center on bilateral trade balance and/or market access of certain merchandise or services. However, since at least the mid 1980s, affiliate sales have become a more direct and more powerful form of market access than the traditional cross-border commercial transactions for developed countries, whereas developing countries still rely predominantly on traditional trade. The importance of the international production supply chain is increasing with a bias against downstream producers. The current data collection and compilation system of trade balance can not reflect these changes in the world economic environment. It overstates exports of developing countries and understates their imports. None of the countries in the world can illustrate the weakness of the conventional system better than China.

Improve the Statistical Methods for True Reflection of the Trade Balance

Trade deficit has provided international trade protection forces with a grand excuse. e US and EU sides are prone to either imposing anti-dumping on China, or demanding revaluation of the Renminbi (RMB) under the pretext of trade deficit. Many businessmen claimed that they have suffered great losses whenever trade deficit is mentioned.

China's Changing Trade Elasticities

China ＇s sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and the import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggregate data highly unstable, with more recent data pointing to significantly higher demand and price elasticities. Sectoral differences in these parameters are also very wide. All this suggests greater caution should be exercised when using historical data to simulate the response of China＇s economy to external shocks and exchange rate changes. Analyses based on models with estimated coefficients largely representative of China in the 1980s and 1990s are likely to turn out to be wrong, perhaps even dramatically.

Global Production Sharing and Sino-US Trade Relations

This paper examines Sino-US trade relations, focusing on the ongoing process of global production sharing, involving splitting of the production process into discrete activities that are then allocated across countries, and the resulting trade complementarities between the two countries in world manufacturing trade. The results suggest that the Sino--US trade imbalance is basically a structural phenomenon resulting from the pivotal role played by China as the final assembly centre in East Asia-centered global production networks.

Revealed Comparative Advantage, Intraindustry Trade and the US Manufacturing Trade Deficit with China

This paper uses 4-digit SITC data to identify groups of manufactured goods exported from China to the USA that have strong or rising comparative advantages. We find that most of the trades are inter-industry, with only a small portion being vertical intra-industry trades （IIT）. Our results confirm that Sino-US trade is complementary. We construct an imbalanced index of IIT, and identify the goods groups that aggravate and reduce the US trade deficit with China. We suggest an approach for calculating a dynamic IIT index that might mitigate the aggregation bias of the existing methodologies. Our improved index reveals that the dynamic imbalances of US-Chinese IIT in manufactured goods are worse than their static IIT imbalances, which means that it would be difficult to correct the deficit of US trade with China in the following couple of years. Adjusting and improving the structures of industries and products is China ＇s major task for sustainable trade growth.

Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States

Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the United States, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciation by the creditor country will slow its economic growth and eventually cause deflation but cannot compensate for a saving-investment imbalance in the United States. Under a fixed exchange rate, however, differential adjustment in the rate of growth of money wages will more accurately reflect international differences in productivity growth. International competitiveness will be better balanced between high-growth and low-growth economies, as between Japan and the U.S. from 1950 to 1971 and China and the U.S. from 1994 to 2005, when the peripheral country＇s dollar exchange rate is fixed so that its wage growth better reflects its higher productivity growth. The qualified case for China moving toward greater flexibility in the form of a very narrow band for the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as a way of decentralizing foreign exchange transacting, is discussed.

The US–China trade war,the American public opinions and its effects on China

Donald Trump’s trade war with China does not make economic sense,but he does not face much domestic opposition to this trade war.Moreover,it is a part of a broader strategy of the nationalistic Americans’attempt to suppress the rise of China.Would China give in to the requests of the US under the threat of the escalation of the trade war?In what way?My conjecture is that China is willing to compromise up to a point.What China is likely to do is to promise to buy more goods and services from the US,allow greater market access for American firms,reduce Chinese subsidies to its industries,reduce forced technology transfers by American firms,strengthen enforcement of intellectual property rights protection and make verification all these commitments more transparent.Although the US might stop escalating the trade war,it is likely that the tariffs already imposed on Chinese goods would not be removed soon.In response to that,China also would not remove most of those tariffs already imposed on imports from the US,in keeping with the spirit of the tit-for-tat policy.It is possible that a temporary ceasefire is agreed,but the trade war can last for a long time.The final assembly stage of many industries might leave China,but not necessarily the whole production process.Hong Kong can be a victim of the trade war if it escalates.