Stochastic Air Traffic Flow Management for Demand and Capacity Balancing Under Capacity Uncertainty

This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.

Dynamic Forecasting of Traffic Event Duration in Istanbul:A Classification Approach with Real-Time Data Integration

Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.

Forecast of Air Traffic Controller Demand Based on SVR and Parameter Optimization

As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model between flight support sorties and air traffic controller demand is constructed by using the prediction algorithm of support vector regression(SVR) based on grid search and cross-validation. Then the model predicts the demand for air traffic controllers in seven regions. Additionally,according to the employment data of civil aviation universities,the future training scale of air traffic controller is predicted. The forecast results show that the average relative error of the number of controllers predicted by the algorithm is 1.73%,and the prediction accuracy is higher than traditional regression algorithms. Under the influence of the epidemic,the demand for air traffic controllers will decrease in the short term,but with the control of the epidemic,the demand of air traffic controllers will return to the pre-epidemic level and gradually increase. It is expected that the controller increment will be about 816 by 2028. The forecast results of the demand for air traffic controllers provide a theoretical basis for the introduction and training of medium and long-term air traffic controllers,and also provide method guidance and decision support for the establishment of professional reserve and dynamic control mechanism in the air traffic control system.

Tourism Traffic Demand Prediction Using Google Trends Based on EEMD-DBN

Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This paper considered the noise interference and proposed a hybrid model, combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), deep belief network (DBN) and Google trends, for tourism traffic demand prediction. This model firstly applied dislocation weighted synthesis method to combine Google trends into a search composite index, and then it denoised the series with EEMD. EEMD extracted the high frequency noise from the original series. The low frequency series of search composite index would be used to forecast the low frequency tourism traffic series. Taking the inbound tourism in Shanghai as an example, this paper trained the model and predicted the next 12 months tourism arrivals. The conclusion demonstrated that the forecast error of EEMD-DBN model is lower remarkably than the baselines of ARIMA, GM(1,1), FTS, SVM, CES and DBN model. This revealed that nosing processing is necessary and EEMD-DBN forecast model can improve the prediction accuracy.

APPLICATION OF INTELLIGENCE FORECASTING METHOD IN TRAFFIC ANALYSIS OF EGCS

Traffic flow forecasting is an important part of elevator group control system (EGCS).This paper applies time series prediction theories based on neural networks(NN) to EGCSs traffic analysis,and establishes a time series NN traffic flow forecasting model.Simulation results show its validity.

Hourly traffic flow forecasting using a new hybrid modelling method

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.

Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

A Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on a Three-Layer K-Nearest Neighbor Non-Parametric Regression Algorithm

Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.

Short-term traffic flow online forecasting based on kernel adaptive filter

Considering that the prediction accuracy of the traditional traffic flow forecasting model is low,based on kernel adaptive filter(KAF)algorithm,kernel least mean square(KLMS)algorithm and fixed-budget kernel recursive least-square(FB-KRLS)algorithm are presented for online adaptive prediction.The computational complexity of the KLMS algorithm is low and does not require additional solution paradigm constraints,but its regularization process can solve the problem of regularization performance degradation in high-dimensional data processing.To reduce the computational complexity,the sparse criterion is introduced into the KLMS algorithm.To further improve forecasting accuracy,FB-KRLS algorithm is proposed.It is an online learning method with fixed memory budget,and it is capable of recursively learning a nonlinear mapping and changing over time.In contrast to a previous approximate linear dependence(ALD)based technique,the purpose of the presented algorithm is not to prune the oldest data point in every time instant but it aims to prune the least significant data point,thus suppressing the growth of kernel matrix.In order to verify the validity of the proposed methods,they are applied to one-step and multi-step predictions of traffic flow in Beijing.Under the same conditions,they are compared with online adaptive ALD-KRLS method and other kernel learning methods.Experimental results show that the proposed KAF algorithms can improve the prediction accuracy,and its online learning ability meets the actual requirements of traffic flow and contributes to real-time online forecasting of traffic flow.

Gender Forecast Based on the Information about People Who Violated Traffic Principle

User portrait has been a booming concept in big data industry in recent years which is a direct way to restore users’information.When it talks about user portrait,it will be connected with precise marketing and operating.However,there are more ways which can reflect the good use of user portrait.Commercial use is the most acceptable use but it also can be used in different industries widely.The goal of this paper is forecasting gender by user portrait and making it useful in transportation safety.It can extract the information from people who violated traffic principle to know the features of them then forecast the gender of these people.Finally,it will analyze the prediction based on characteristics correlation and forecasting results from models which can verify if gender can have an obvious influence on the traffic violation.Also we hope give some advice to drivers and traffic department by doing this research.

Traffic Assignment Forecast Model Research in ITS

As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast.

PGSLM:Edge-Enabled Probabilistic Graph Structure Learning Model for Traffic Forecasting in Internet of Vehicles

With the rapid development of the 5G communications,the edge intelligence enables Internet of Vehicles(IoV)to provide traffic forecasting to alleviate traffic congestion and improve quality of experience of users simultaneously.To enhance the forecasting performance,a novel edge-enabled probabilistic graph structure learning model(PGSLM)is proposed,which learns the graph structure and parameters by the edge sensing information and discrete probability distribution on the edges of the traffic road network.To obtain the spatio-temporal dependencies of traffic data,the learned dynamic graphs are combined with a predefined static graph to generate the graph convolution part of the recurrent graph convolution module.During the training process,a new graph training loss is introduced,which is composed of the K nearest neighbor(KNN)graph constructed by the traffic feature tensors and the graph structure.Detailed experimental results show that,compared with existing models,the proposed PGSLM improves the traffic prediction performance in terms of average absolute error and root mean square error in IoV.

Traffic Forecasting and Planning of WiMAX under Multiple Priority Using Fuzzy Time Series Analysis

Network traffic prediction plays a fundamental role in characterizing the network performance and it is of significant interests in many network applications, such as admission control or network management. Therefore, The main idea behind this work, is the development of a WIMAX Traffic Forecasting System for predicting traffic time series based on the daily and monthly traffic data recorded (TRD) with association of feed forward multi-layer perceptron (FFMLP). The quality of forecasting WIMAX Traffic obtained by comparing different configurations of the FFMLP that consist of investigating different FFMLP model architectures and different Learning Algorithms. The decision of changing the FFMLP architecture is essentially based on prediction results to obtain the FFMLP model for flow traffic prediction model. The different configurations were tested using daily and monthly real traffic data recorded at each of the two base stations (A and B) that belongs to a Libyan WiMAX Network. We evaluate our approach with statistical measurement and a good statistic measure of FMLP indicates the performance of selected neural network configuration. The developed system indicates promising results in which it successfully network traffic prediction through daily and monthly traffic data recorded (TRD) association with artificial neural network.

Traffic Forecasting Model Based on Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Logical System

The local multiple regression fuzzy(LMRF)model based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logical system and its application in traffic forecasting is proposed. Besides its prediction accuracy is testified and the model is proved much better than conventional forecasting methods. According to the regional traffic system, the model perfectly states the complex non-linear relation of the traffic and the local social economy. The model also efficiently deals with the system lack of enough data.

Scheme design technique for urban traffic management planning

Management tactics for urban traffic management are presented.The tactics that underlie traffic demand management （TDM） are preferential development tactics, controlled development tactics,prohibited development tactics and economic lever tactics,and those that underlie traffic system management （TSM） are node traffic management tactics,arterial traffic management tactics and area traffic management tactics.The specific contents and design methods of urban traffic total demand control,urban traffic structure optimization,road traffic movement organization based on TDM and intersection traffic management,road signs and markings management,optimized design of traffic signals and management of parking spaces based on TSM are put forward.The urban traffic management planning scheme design method has already been used in the urban traffic management “Smooth Traffic Project” in China.

On the Time Series Forecasting of Road Traffic Accidents in Ondo State of Nigeria

This paper focuses on time series forecasting of monthly occurrence of fatal road accidents in Ondo State of Nigeria. Its aim, however, is to use time series analysis to analyze the data obtained from Federal Road Safety Corps （FRSC）, Ondo State Command; which was considered in two cases： the total cases reported （TCR） and the number of deaths resulted from accidents （NOD）. Various smoothing models for time series were used to analyze the two cases. Based on the models, predictions were made and the results show a steady increase as a result of long-term effects on road accidents for the two cases. It was found also that simple exponential smoothing model is the appropriate model for both TCR and NOD.

TransCAD and GIS Technique for Estimating Traffic Demand and Its Application in Gaza City

In the early nineties of the last century, the transportation system in Gaza Strip was born and new infrastructure projects, especially road networks, were constructed. However, the construction lacked efficient application of a transportation planning process. Transportation planning relies on traffic demand forecasting process. The conventional process is impeded by extensive amount of socioeconomic data. One of the most widely-used models which mitigate this problem is the TransCAD Model. This model is rarely used in Gaza Strip for traffic demand forecasting, and most of the practices depend mainly on a constant growth rate of traffic. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to apply this model in Gaza City for traffic estimation. This model estimates the origin-destination matrix based on traffic count. The traffic count was carried out at 36 intersections distributed around Gaza City. The results of traffic flow estimation obtained from TransCAD are assigned to the Gaza maps using the GIS techniques for spatial analysis. It is shown that the most congested area at present is the middle of the city especially at Aljala-Omer Almokhtar intersection. Therefore, improvement scenarios of this area should be carried out. The results of calibration of traffic flow estimation show that the differences between the estimated and the actual flows were less than 10%. In addition, network evaluation results show that the network is expected to be more congested in 2015. This work can be used by transportation planners for testing any network improvement scenarios and for studying their network performance.

Expressway traffic flow prediction using chaos cloud particle swarm algorithm and PPPR model

Aiming at the real-time fluctuation and nonlinear characteristics of the expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting the parameter projection pursuit regression PPPR model is applied to forecast the expressway traffic flow where the orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit the ridge functions and the least square method is employed to determine the polynomial weight coefficient c.In order to efficiently optimize the projection direction a and the number M of ridge functions of the PPPR model the chaos cloud particle swarm optimization CCPSO algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters. The CCPSO-PPPR hybrid optimization model for expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting is established in which the CCPSO algorithm is used to optimize the optimal projection direction a in the inner layer while the number M of ridge functions is optimized in the outer layer.Traffic volume weather factors and travel date of the previous several time intervals of the road section are taken as the input influencing factors. Example forecasting and model comparison results indicate that the proposed model can obtain a better forecasting effect and its absolute error is controlled within [-6,6] which can meet the application requirements of expressway traffic flow forecasting.

Development of a Methodology to Evaluate Projects Using Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models

The identification and selection of performance measures play an important role in any decision making process. Additionally, millions of dollars are spent on appropriate planning and identification of prospective projects for improvements. As a result, current practitioners spend a lot of time and money in prioritizing their limited resources. This research proposes two tasks: 1) estimation of performance measures using a simulation based on dynamic traffic assignment model, and 2) development of a methodology to evaluate multiple projects based on benefit-cost analysis. The model, DynusT, is used for the Las Vegas roadway network during the morning peak time period. A comparative analysis of the results from proposed methodology with existing California Benefit-Cost (Cal-B/C) models is presented. The results indicate that the new methodology provides an accurate benefit-cost ratio of the projects. In addition, it signifies that the existing Cal-B/C models underestimate the benefits associated with the prospective project improvements. The major contribution of this research is the simultaneous estimation of the performance measures and development of a methodology to evaluate multiple projects. This is helpful to decision makers to rank and prioritize future projects in a cost-effective manner. Planning and operational policies for the transportation systems can be developed based on the gained insights from this study.

Traffic simulation and forecasting system in Beijing

Transport system is a time-varying, huge and complex system. In order to have the traffic management department make pre-appropriate traffic management measures to adjust the traffic management control program, and release travel information to travelers, to provide optimal path options to ensure that the transport system operates efficiently and safely, we have to monitor the changing of the state of road traffic and to accurately evaluate the state of the traffic, then to predict the future state of traffic. This paper represents the construction of the road traffic flow simulation including the logical structure and the physical structure, and introduces the system functions of forecasting system in Beijing.