运营突发事件下,向城市轨道交通(城轨)乘客有针对性地发布诱导信息,是实现高效疏导、确保城轨运营安全的重要举措。本文考虑乘客异质性,开展突发事件下城轨诱导信息发布策略研究。首先,基于潜在分类模型(Latent Class Model,LCM)构建城...运营突发事件下,向城市轨道交通(城轨)乘客有针对性地发布诱导信息,是实现高效疏导、确保城轨运营安全的重要举措。本文考虑乘客异质性,开展突发事件下城轨诱导信息发布策略研究。首先,基于潜在分类模型(Latent Class Model,LCM)构建城轨乘客在突发事件和诱导信息双重作用下的路径选择行为模型,分析乘客对诱导信息接受程度及路径选择偏好的差异。其次,以线网乘客总出行时间和线网客流分布均衡性基尼系数为优化目标,构建基于路径选择行为分析的信息诱导优化模型,并应用非支配排序遗传算法(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic AlgorithmⅡ,NSGA-Ⅱ)求解,以获得突发事件下受影响起讫点(Origin and Destination,OD)间各有效路径的最优推荐指数。最后,以北京市工作日早高峰城轨区域线网进行案例分析。结果表明:城轨乘客在突发事件下对诱导信息存在“诱导服从型”“诱导中立型”“诱导无视型”这3类不同接受程度的群体。提供诱导信息后,线网乘客总出行时间减少3.906%,线网客流分布均衡性基尼系数下降4.063%,同时减少了高满载率区间数量。事件结束后,诱导信息的继续发布可降低突发事件受影响区间7.08%的满载率,并避免乘客在刚恢复正常运营区间上的再次聚集。展开更多
Optimal route selection is an important function of vehicle traffic flow guidance system. Its core is to determine the index weight for measuring the route merits and to determine the evaluation method for selecting r...Optimal route selection is an important function of vehicle traffic flow guidance system. Its core is to determine the index weight for measuring the route merits and to determine the evaluation method for selecting route. In this paper, subjective weighting method which relies on driver preference is used to determine the weight and the paper proposes the multi-criteria weighted decision method based on vague sets for selecting the optimal route. Examples show that, the usage of vague sets to describe route index value can provide more decision-making information for route selection.展开更多
文摘运营突发事件下,向城市轨道交通(城轨)乘客有针对性地发布诱导信息,是实现高效疏导、确保城轨运营安全的重要举措。本文考虑乘客异质性,开展突发事件下城轨诱导信息发布策略研究。首先,基于潜在分类模型(Latent Class Model,LCM)构建城轨乘客在突发事件和诱导信息双重作用下的路径选择行为模型,分析乘客对诱导信息接受程度及路径选择偏好的差异。其次,以线网乘客总出行时间和线网客流分布均衡性基尼系数为优化目标,构建基于路径选择行为分析的信息诱导优化模型,并应用非支配排序遗传算法(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic AlgorithmⅡ,NSGA-Ⅱ)求解,以获得突发事件下受影响起讫点(Origin and Destination,OD)间各有效路径的最优推荐指数。最后,以北京市工作日早高峰城轨区域线网进行案例分析。结果表明:城轨乘客在突发事件下对诱导信息存在“诱导服从型”“诱导中立型”“诱导无视型”这3类不同接受程度的群体。提供诱导信息后,线网乘客总出行时间减少3.906%,线网客流分布均衡性基尼系数下降4.063%,同时减少了高满载率区间数量。事件结束后,诱导信息的继续发布可降低突发事件受影响区间7.08%的满载率,并避免乘客在刚恢复正常运营区间上的再次聚集。
基金Supported by the Provincial Government Decision-making Tender Subject(2013B318)Supported by the Educational Committee of Henan Province of China(15A520004)
文摘Optimal route selection is an important function of vehicle traffic flow guidance system. Its core is to determine the index weight for measuring the route merits and to determine the evaluation method for selecting route. In this paper, subjective weighting method which relies on driver preference is used to determine the weight and the paper proposes the multi-criteria weighted decision method based on vague sets for selecting the optimal route. Examples show that, the usage of vague sets to describe route index value can provide more decision-making information for route selection.
基金Major Scientific and Technological Research Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Commission(07DZ12061)Shanghai Key Subjects Project(S30504)Shanghai Municipal Education Commission Project(07ZZ91)
